Putin keeps circling Ukraine, amassing troops around it and tightening his grip. Ukrainians are running out of air. They have started to have trouble breathing.
Putin is loving the world’s attention. This is what he’s always dreamed of. Americans rushing frantically, here and there, trying to convince allies that the time is now and some allies saying, ‘Well… I’m not sure.’
Putin laughs. And he thinks, you have to be doing like the ostrich does, to not see what’s in front of you.
But of course he will invade.
The West is divided. Beautiful. Just Beautiful.
Trucker protests in Canada are now spreading to America and France and affecting commerce, rattling nerves. ‘We need freedom!’ they chant as they blare their horns for hours on end stressing everybody else. ‘Pay attention to me!’ ‘I count too!’ ‘No vaccine mandates!’ they say.
And in their minds, they must be convinced that if they keep it up, they will be able to bend the arm of government and boost the chances of a nationalist party rising to the top and finally putting an end to that nasty immigration problem they have and can’t solve, plus the worrying about other countries far, far away. Too far.
Long live Trump!
And when Putin runs over Ukraine and crushes them, shamelessly making the country a province of the greater Russia, the protesters in the West will simply say, ‘Putin needs his space. So long as he respects ours, we’ll be okay. He’s one of us, a devoted nationalist.’
Meanwhile, to aid their case, business interests in Germany are saying that the talk of economic sanctions on Russia when they invade, would affect them as much as the Russians and that prices would go up for all. So no sanctions, please. We cannot afford it. How about a slap on the wrist, instead? If Putin wants a little bit more of Ukraine to feel less anxious about his hold on power, why not give it to him? It’s just Ukraine, so relax. Anyway, the man won’t live forever. And we need to keep an eye on our bottom line, that’s number one.’
And Putin will be smiling. He could kiss the truckers and their rants and the businessmen fretting over the bottom line being above everything else.
‘You are lovely, thank you’ Putin will say. ‘I agree with you, some people need to be sacrificed sometimes. We all know that. The Germans knew it. They just went about it the wrong way. You won’t see me making that same mistake again. I promise. So long as I live.’
If divisions in America are not enough, then there’s inflation.
Supply chains have not got back to normal, demand is driving up prices and traders and investors are panicking. Stocks are dropping like lead in water – straight down – investors worrying that the new interest rates the Federal Reserve will set in March will be either too high or too low. The Federal Reserve won’t be able to do enough to calm the nerves. If the new rate increase is 0.5 bps investors will sell because the central bank is too aggressive. If the new rate increase is 0.25 bps then the Feds don’t know what they’re doing and are avoiding reality. Either way, value will drain out of the markets.
Putin will be salivating.
‘Oh, I never imagined it would look this good. In congress, Republicans and Democrats can barely agree on anything. Republicans have Biden checked. The poor guy, a lifetime waiting to govern and then he gets blocked. And Republicans will squash him in November. No, not squash but stomp on him. And Kamala Harris can forget about it. The two houses will be Republican and my good friend Donald Trump will win in November 2024. It will be great to see him again. He and I can talk. We can divide Europe according to our wishes. He can keep Britain – I’ve never been fond of those rascals. But Poland, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, the Baltic nations, they will come my way. A new era dawns. Thank you, Donald, for planting the seeds. Thank you for inspiring the Capitol assault on 1/6/2020and the way that has influenced the imagination of Americans. Thank you, you are the greatest. I wouldn’t be on the brink of invading Ukraine and making it a province of Mother Russia if it weren’t for the way you set things up. The way you showed Americans that there is indeed a place for totalitarian government, for the rule of the majority. I’ll be forever grateful. And maybe, you can change the constitution so you can get elected a 3rd time. I promise you all the help I can possibly give. I’ll keep you out of it, of course, so as not to compromise you. What are good friends for.’
And Putin has one final thought.
It has occurred to him to contact some groups and urge them to stage another assault on the Capitol… and even the White House itself. But it might be too obvious. But there are people willing. Still, he will tread carefully. He knows the field. He was once a trusted KGB man. So he knows that world. In and out. And how some spies will work for both sides.
Feeling like he’s on top of the world, he smiles confidently and says, ‘I’ve got them.’
Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net. anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts