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‘It is much more dangerous giving in to Putin than provoking him’ said recently Estonia’s prime minister Kaja Kallas. Contrast that with Henry Kissinger saying that negotiations should begin to return to where the borders stood prior to the start of the war on 2/24 and that ‘pursuing the war beyond that point would not be about the freedom of Ukraine but a new war against Russia itself’ (World Economic Forum in Davos as reported by The Economist -6/3/22) to which he added that Russia had an important role to play in Europe’s balance of power. Estonia shares a border with Russia. Kissinger is sitting in a comfortable residence in New York. Kaja Kallas is feeling the heat. The prime minister smells the blood being spilled in Ukraine, in an unprovoked war that has killed thousands, displaced millions and ravaged that nation’s infrastructure. Estonia could be next. On 5/28, the Associated Press reported that Russia had test launched a cruise missile, the Zircon, in the Barents Sea, next to Norway and Finland and very near Estonia. Putin described the weapon as having 9 times the speed of sound and capable of travelling 620 miles, adding that the weapon is impossible to intercept with existing antimissile systems and once more reminding the West against interfering in Ukraine. Russia must be confronted. The massacre of Ukrainians was unprovoked. And it will continue until Putin is stopped. Russia has no important role to play in Europe’s balance of power. They prefer China. This is an hour of reckoning. Europe needing to come to terms with their denial of who Putin is. This is the Putin that invaded Georgia, that annexed Crimea (to which president Obama did not respond), that has propped up the cruel regime of Assad in Syria for years. There it all was, in black and white, and yet Europe allowed itself to become reliant on Russia for their energy needs. Unbelievable. That behavior equated with massive denial, or grand appeasement. Nevertheless, Europe has shown itself capable of correcting course, but are they now tiring of the sacrifice and showing eagerness to accommodate? As in Germany now calling for a cease fire and France calling for a deal without ‘humiliation’ for Russia (The Economist 6/3/22). Why should Russia be spared humiliation when they have caused so much misery? Is there fear that Russia will become a permanent ally of China? Go right ahead. The rest of the world will know better as to how to proceed. This is a crucial moment we’re living in. The forces of democracy aligning themselves on one side, the forces of autocrats and tyrants on the other. Meanwhile the United Nations’ Security Council has proved itself worthless. Having members like Russia and China hold veto power neutralizes that body. In the face of Russian atrocities, the West has united and placed important sanctions on them. They should remain in place. Russia needs to be isolated and those who support it should pay the price too. This is not the time to weaken our resolve. Russia needs the West more than we do them. So long as Ukraine is willing to fight we should give them all they need, including fighter planes. Putin will not start a nuclear war because China won’t let them, knowing as they do that when the West retaliates, they will target them also since they are Putin’s main accomplice. Push Russia back.
Oscar valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts
Russian troops in the eastern section of Ukraine continue to push to encircle Ukraine’s forces. Should it happen, Ukraine would lose a significant portion of its army. I read that the leaders of France and Germany, Macron and Scholz, have spoken to Putin and that he’s shown interest in peace talks. But to think that the Russian would cede the territory he’s earned is sheer denial of the facts. With such a deal he could turn to his people and say, ‘we now have most of southern Ukraine and more of the East. We pause now, resume later.’ And he’ll speak with the same assurance of Russian leaders who offered security guarantees to Ukraine when they gave up their nuclear weapons in the 90s, only to violate them later. The sanctions imposed by the West are biting. Putin’s army is short of men, thus the decision to increase the upper age limit to conscription from 30 to 40 years old. It’s in Ukraine’s best interest that the war be short for they are fighting in their land and suffering all manner of losses. And it’s in our best interest too. But we need to push harder. I was pleased to hear that a large aid package to Ukraine was approved with bipartisan support, and that Biden is about to send more weapons, i.e. MLRS, multiple launch rocket systems to Ukraine. But it may not be enough. So why not give aircraft to the Ukrainians, fighter jets they can use to push back Russia in the East and elsewhere? Would this be seen as an escalation on the part of the West? Yes. But is Russia fighting in Ukraine with an army equal to theirs? No. So is it fair for Russia to have all the advantages and for Ukrainian soldiers to be supermen and beat back the Russians with fewer numbers and weapons? No. While Ukraine has the will to fight, the West, not just the US, should give them what they need. This is the time. Will the giving of aircraft push Putin to threaten nuclear weapons? Maybe, but I don’t think so. By now his posturing has been degraded. And just how will he threaten with his nuclear weapons? Will he threaten to use them in Ukraine itself, or will he threaten to fire on the West? The resolve the West has shown in support of Ukraine tells Putin that we are not intimidated. He has nuclear weapons and so do we. Putin is not crazy. He likes remaining in control of his country which by now, after 20 years of his leadership, has become emotionally impoverished and accustomed to bowing to the ‘great’ leader. Accustomed also, to seeing their emerging leaders, like Alexei Navalny, be treated like criminals. Navalny just had his prison term extended on trumped up charges. What this war has shown, is that Putin is no match for the West. China is seeing the drama unfold and is having second thoughts about betting on Vladimir. Having become an accomplice of Putin has eroded China’s prestige in the world. And should they catch wind that Putin wanted to use nuclear weapons, they would be the first to tell him, ‘Don’t. For if you do, the West will answer, hit you and hit us too.’ Ukraine needs planes to win this war.
Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.
But they were. On that sad morning, just 4 days ago, the gunman crashed his truck into a ditch next to the school, two people from a funeral home across the street came out to see what was happening, were shot at but not hurt, then called 911. An offsite officer assigned to the school, upon hearing the call, made his way back but didn’t spot the gunman. Even though the gunman kept firing his weapon. A teacher propped open a door – then left it open as he went back in to call 911. That would be the door the gunman would use to go into the building. Officers arrived. Lots of them. Two got shot at and grazed by the bullets. Then the officers froze. They had to call for back up, their commander is reported to have said, for they needed more equipment. Shields. Whatever. And as they waited they soothed themselves by repeating ‘No kids at risk’. Meanwhile more desperate 911 calls from inside the school were being made. Shots being fired. Wait. Right. For back up and equipment. More wait. And then 21 people were killed. 19 children and 2 teachers. Only then, the officers went in and killed the gunman. He probably had run out of ammunition. Yesterday evening I read the sad timeline of events. Thank you to the authorities for putting it out. We needed to know. In an adjoining article, fleshed out details of the response to the attack were presented. And nowhere was there mention of the word fear. Nowhere. But fear had flooded the place, ever since the moment the gunman crashed his truck into the ditch, ever since the first 911 call went out and the gunman started firing round after round. The offsite officer returning to the school had missed the gunman because of fear. The officers who’d entered the school and were shot at, stopped the pursuit because of fear. The commander who put the officer response on hold did so because of fear. Fear had paralyzed them all. But you can’t say ‘No kids at risk’ unless you’re absolutely sure they are not at risk. Otherwise it’s you inventing stuff to quiet the fear in your heart. In the days following, school walkouts have happened across the nation in protest. Bills in congress to deter the harm from guns were proposed and voted down. And in a National Rifle Association meeting, all the participants agreed that it was profoundly sad to see 21 lives cut short. But no gun controls. Absolutely not. I am sure that at no time during that meeting, the word fear was mentioned. And yet it is fear that drives the gun owner to be so enamored of his weapons. So enamored that they don’t see the bleeding of our nation.
Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net medium.com anchor.fm buzzsprout apple and google podcasts
The news flashed across my phone’s screen a few hours ago. 14 children and a teacher were killed in a Texas elementary school. What? Wasn’t it just 10 days ago that 10 African Americans were killed at a grocery store in Buffalo, New York? Yes. And still it happened again. And it will keep happening. Voices in support of the right to bear arms will roar in defense of their freedoms. Voices in favor of gun control will rise too, with equal conviction. And then the shootings will die down for a few weeks, only to start again. It will happen anywhere. There’s no one state, city or town that is immune to it. No age, sex or race that will be spared. And so America, our dear nation, will bleed and keep bleeding. Senselessly. Gun control would help and civil liberties are essential. But there’s something more basic at stake here. The fragility of our egos. And how we are choosing to hide behind guns. To address this we must learn to speak in the language of emotions. Why are we so scared of each other? Why can’t we pause when we have differences and attempt to dialogue? What are we missing in our emotional learning that makes us so likely to feel threatened? Why does discourse on critical issues quickly move to hostile remarks? Something is festering in us and it has to do with the fragility of our egos. We mustn’t ignore it because we are bleeding. Hiding behind guns doesn’t help. All lives are precious. Our problems on this earth are daunting. We need everybody’s contributions. And so we must get to work on using the language of emotions. We should be willing to speak of our fears, our anger, our envy, for they are with us every single day of our lives. We should be able to speak of those emotions without shame. As we grow more comfortable with acknowledging our feelings we will become less paranoid, more confident and personally secure, more willing to listen to each other, perchance to understand and, soon enough, may not be so quick to hide behind guns. It will take some time – maybe decades – but we have to get started. It is a matter of national urgency. Immersing ourselves in the language of emotions is essential to our future wellbeing. I will send this letter to president Biden in the hope it may spark some initiative, if it is not already afoot. Ultimately, though, it is up to each and every one of us to make the effort. Help stop the bleeding. Speak of your emotions. Let us strive to not hide behind guns.
Oscar Valdes is the author of Letters to a Shooter. Available in my website and on youtube. Oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.
He was sitting at his desk in his bunker when the call came in. The general he had summoned had arrived. Putin reached over to the photo of Josef Stalin he kept on his desk and put it in one of the drawers. The general stepped in. Putin signaled for him to take a seat across. The general did. Putin – Good to see you. General – Pleasure as always, Mr President. Putin – Wanted to hear from you directly how are things on the front. General – There has been much resistance as I detailed on my report from yesterday but I’m confident we will prevail. Putin – How long? General – That’s a hard question to answer. Putin – A guess… General – It could go on for months… with the West providing so much equipment.
Putin looks off as he nods.
General – Their morale is high… they’re good fighters. It’s their land we’re taking over… Putin – No, General, it’s our land. General – I meant they’ve been there for a long time… and they’ve been able to put up with a lot of killing.
Putin leans forward, intertwines his hands.
Putin – Do I look like I’m having trouble sleeping? General (scrutinizing briefly Putin’s face) – Mr President, your expression looks fresh and healthy. Putin – You know why? General – You’re convinced you’re doing the right thing? Putin – Yes… God is on my side.
The General nods.
Putin – The Russian orthodox church says I’m in the right and that’s good enough for me. Are you a believer? General – I am.
He had prepared himself for the question.
Putin – I don’t want to keep losing Russian soldiers… so I may have to use nuclear weapons.
The General flinches, surprised by the statement.
Putin – Even though I think that a long war will eventually work to our benefit… carefully placed nuclear weapons would make a big difference. The war is raising energy prices, fueling inflation, creating food shortages, lowering morale throughout the West. Do you follow the capital markets in the West? General – Not regularly, Mr President. Putin – They’re panicking, selling and selling, the likelihood being that they will go into a recession… even a depression… which would erode support for Biden and his people. All of which makes it more likely that America will see more political divisions and increase the possibility that Trump will be reelected in 2024. General – That would be good for us? Putin – Of course. He’ll agree to the superpowers carving out spheres of influence and we’ll all live happily ever after. I will do everything possible to see him reelected… but I can’t wait that long. Nuclear bombs in Kyiv, Lviv, Odessa… will send a clear message. Surrender immediately. Or else… more will be on the way.
The General looks down at the ground for a moment, gathering his thoughts.
General – Wouldn’t that be killing a lot of innocent people? Putin – Innocent? If they’re collaborating with the enemy they’re not innocents. General – But don’t you think the West will figure out you’re planning a strike and do something about it? Putin – Maybe. But they have a lot of people to consult before they make a decision. I can make my choice quickly. General – They may have a plan ready to go… Putin – Perhaps. But I’ll take my chances. General – That would be a big chance you’d be taking. It would change the history of the world.
Putin nods as he narrows his eyes.
Putin – I hadn’t thought about it that way… but it definitely would. Still, the Japanese were able to rebuild. General – Too many innocent people would be killed or burned. Putin – There are no innocent people in this war… General – The children…
Putin shakes his head as he looks directly at the general. Why is he having to repeat himself?
Putin – Do you think the West will give planes to Ukrainians? General – I’m sure they’re thinking about it. The Czechs already send in helicopters and are repairing them too. With planes they could hurt us badly. Putin – Another reason to drop the nuclear weapons. General – But the West may respond by using nuclear weapons on our troops and that would be it. Putin – I don’t think they would. They would think it inhumane… or wrestle with their conscience. Advantage Putin. For I would not hesitate to fire on Washington, New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, London, Berlin, Paris, Amsterdam…
The General looks off for a moment,
Putin – A lot of killing, you think? General (now looking at Putin) – That’s… destroying the world as we know it…
Putin is struck by the statement.
Putin – The world as we know it…? Interesting. General, I detect a certain pro-Western bias… General (puzzled) – How so? Putin – What about China, India, Africa, South America, the Middle East, Southeast Asia… aren’t they important engines of growth? General – Of course, but the cities you mentioned are at the cutting edge… Putin – No, general… they’re decaying cities, filled with corruption, greed, moral decay and perversion… but you don’t seem to get that. General – I do… but there’s a vitality there that enriches our world…
The general catches himself. He had forgot caution.
Putin (eyeing the general carefully, speaking deliberately) – I’m not just fighting for Russia, general, though I’ve warned them… said it again and again… do not encircle me with NATO. I must have my Ukraine. How many times do I have to repeat it? I’m fighting for a new world order… so the nations of the East and South can emerge… and shake off the shackles of unrestrained capitalism…
The general nods uncertainly.
General – If we attack… wouldn’t they destroy Moscow, St Petersburg… so much life, so much history? Putin – I would get to them before they get to us. General – How can you be sure of that? Putin – I am sure. That’s why I have ruled this nation as long as I have. That’s why people believe in me. But rest assured, general, it won’t come to that. If the West chooses to use nuclear weapons against our troops in retaliation, then there will be nothing left in Ukraine… and I will take it over and rebuild.
Putin sits back in his chair, taking his time.
Putin – General… your pro-Western bias worries me… I believe that’s made you less effective on the battlefield. General (quickly, emphatically) – I assure you it has not. What I said is simply an acknowledgement that the cities you mentioned are creative centers… I believe in Russia’s importance in the world, Mr President… Putin (ignoring him) – Which may be why we’ve not gained more territory. General (urgently) – Mr President, I have given the war effort and our conquest of Ukraine all of my energies, day and night… Putin – But your attitude would easily lead to a lack of conviction… in ways not easily detected… so be quiet, please.
Pause.
Putin – I hate to do this, dear sir… how long have you been in the armed forces? General – Thirty five years, sir… and proud of it. Putin – It may be time for you to retire.
The general’s heart sinks. He closes his eyes.
Putin – You have been obedient and loyal… but maybe it’s time for you to spend more time with your family. General – But why, sir? Putin – I don’t think you have the commitment I need to have my orders followed unquestioningly. I don’t get that you’re hungry for victory. General – That is not true. Putin – Be quiet.
Leaning forward, the general rubs his face. His eyes now moistened.
General (choosing to fight) – Don’t you think it’s good for Russia that you hear different opinions? For instance, our soldiers’ morale has been low, that has affected performance on the battlefield. Putin – And what have you done about it? General – I’ve told them that we must sacrifice for a greater Russia. I’ve joined them in the front lines… stood side by side with them… they just don’t believe me. I’ve proposed they be given bonuses… Putin (firmly) – The morale of our troops has been low because you lack commitment, general. That is why.
The General looks off, feeling defeated.
Putin (softly, almost caringly) – You’ll be placed under house arrest effective immediately. Return directly to your home. A security detail will follow you. You may leave now. General (pleading) – I don’t deserve this, Mr President. Putin – That is my final decision. General – Will you please reconsider? Putin – Didn’t I just say my decision was final?
The General stands, salutes energetically and exits.
On the way out, he thinks to himself, ‘And what do I tell my children that I did for mother Russia?’
Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts
The war is settling into a slow, painful grind. Russia is concentrating in the East but have made gains in the southern border.
A protracted war is likely to end with an advantage for Russia, since they have access to more fighting materiel.
Which brings up the matter of how much more assistance to give Ukraine.
So far the West has been careful to not provide Ukrainians with more sophisticated weaponry, the kind capable of inflicting more serious damage to Russia.
One of the worries has been that the aid provided not be of such quantity or quality to put the West in the category of co combatant.
But that’s a definition that Putin came up with and imposed on us.
The undisputed pluck of the Ukrainian people have done all they can with what they have.
Can they have more?
Can they have planes?
Providing them would give Ukraine a chance of beating the Russians more quickly.
The war would escalate but the chances of Ukraine booting the Russians completely out of their territory would increase.
The big question is what would Putin do?
There’s no question that he’s fully committed to the conquest of their neighbor, but would he follow through with the threat of using nuclear weapons? I think the time has come when we must confront him on this.
The atrocities committed by Russians give the West the higher moral ground.
I recall Biden stating that he would draw a line on the use of chemical weapons. So too with nuclear weapons.
I think Putin’s threats must be confronted.
And we should make it clear too that, should there be a nuclear confrontation, China would be a target of ours also.
This would make China intercede with Putin to dissuade him from using the nuclear weapons.
Ukraine’s resolve will not last forever. For all the help they’re getting from the West they have limited manpower, much less than Russia, which has recently raised the age for enlistment in their army.
We should make it clear that our objectives are not regime change in Russia. That’s for Russians to do. But they should leave Ukraine entirely.
Will congress approve that stance?
Chances are they will. Mitch McConnell and company has supported the 40 billion package aid recently passed.
Russia is becoming more and more isolated. They’re lacking parts for their weaponry that need to come from the West and that will hurt.
Here in America we’re struggling with inflation and supply chain constraints, but the war looms large over everything.
One other point. I agree that it should be up to Ukrainians if they wish to negotiate a cease fire.
It’s their blood being shed, their land being ravaged and they have limits.
Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts
A recent article in the WSJ coauthored by former senator Joe Liebermann, addressed the matter. Here I add my thoughts. Recep Erdogan, Turkey’s president, has been in power for years but could not get his nation into the European Union. His governing style has not measured up to their standards. But now that Finland and Sweden have asked to be part of NATO, he has become the one party in the entire organization to block the two nations’ desires. Erdogan has not applied the sanctions against Russia most of the EU – except for Hungary – have enforced. Yet he likes to see himself as a mediator that could deliver the deal that will put an end to the war. He won’t. As an autocrat, convinced that he should reign in Turkey until his death, he shares much with Putin. So he has no clue as to what freedom is. He was useful to the EU in stemming the flow of Syrian refugees at the start of that nation’s civil war and got paid for it. Yet, now and then, he threatens to open the borders and let everyone through. Which puts the burden on the EU to find better solutions. One of Erdogan’s objections to Finland and Sweden’s bid to join NATO, is that there are Kurdish terrorist groups in both countries who are enemies of his regime. That is a good point. Why should any NATO nation host any terrorist group against another member nation? But does Erdogan and Turkey bear responsibility for creating the conditions that led to the formation of such groups? Turkey has a troubled history dealing with adversaries. At the start of WWI they killed thousands of Armenians, which president Biden, in 2021, on the 106th anniversary of the massacre, pronounced a genocide. The Kurds have been American allies in the war against ISIS in Syria, and that must be recognized. Still, support for any terrorist organization is a bad idea. Erdogan not only wants the Kurdish groups in Finland and Sweden expelled, but also wants to be allowed to buy American planes, a deal that has been held back because a few years ago, against NATO’s wishes, Turkey purchased a Russian missile system which raised concerns that sensitive information from the aircraft would end up in Russia’s hands. In spite of all of this, Turkey’s membership in NATO has continued. But now the invasion of Ukraine and the strong response of the West has changed everything. Erdogan never imagined that Biden and Europe would pull together into a solid bloc, except for Hungary. Russia’s atrocious invasion and disregard for human life have created a new power alignment. Finland and Sweden want to join it, but Turkey says no unless their conditions are met. However, in this new power alignment, as in any other, priorities are needed. And while Turkey’s concern about terrorist groups deserves full attention, it should not be enough to block Finland and Sweden’s admission. Turkey’s history of silencing the opposition is not compatible with a democracy. Thus, I agree with the view that it should not have the privilege of barring democracies from joining and expanding NATO.
Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts
The massive loss of life that Putin has unleashed has its roots in a set of emotional perceptions. Yet I am almost sure, that none of the heads of state who have attempted to mediate with the Russian, have asked him, ‘why are you afraid?’ or ‘are you envious of the West?’ Putin would deny he was. Acknowledging our emotions is not easy but the cost of not doing so is enormous. Putin has said that NATO is threatening Russia although NATO’s reason for being is to protect against Russian attacks. And there have been plenty of those. It was Russia, or the Soviet Union before it, that invaded Ukraine in 2014 (annexing Crimea), Georgia in 2008, Chechnya in the 1990s and again in the first decade of this century, Czechoslovakia in 1968, Hungary in 1956. To justify the present invasion, Putin has insisted that Ukraine is a threat to him and to Russia. He did not have the personal strength to say, ‘I am afraid that if Ukrainians leave my world and take up the customs of the West – with their ways of thinking and behaving – they will set a bad example for all the peoples I have intimidated into submission. And because I am afraid, I must kill the wayward Ukrainians.’ But what is there to be afraid of? Freedom. Freedom is central to the language of emotions. If there is no freedom or if it is restricted, so are the emotions we can express. We read, go to the theatre, watch movies, so we can see other ranges of emotional expression and help expand ours. Under political repression, only the outward expression of emotions and ideas are restricted. Inside our minds we can still think and feel what we wish. But over time, the restricted possibilities of outward expression end up constricting our thoughts and feelings. Fear does that. And so life is diminished and devalued. Which is how autocrats and dictators rule. It is happening In Russia, in China, in Myanmar, in Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Egypt. They restrict the freedom of others so those doing the intimidation can have more privileges than the rest. Restriction of freedom leads to the narrowing of our emotional world. The fact that Putin rules Russia and its subordinate territories (the word nation does not currently fit Belarus) does not mean that he is doing so with the consent of the people. If there isn’t freedom of expression in a nation, then such rule lacks legitimacy. Legitimacy is not earned by force of arms or intimidation. Thus, Putin is not the legitimate leader of Russia. Instead, he is the expression of a people who has lost its voice and so become emotionally crippled because of not exercising their political freedoms. I predict that soon there will be a revolution in Russia. There will be because of the following: One – Russians are an educated and capable people who, in comparison to the rest of the world, are underperforming. They know it and it hurts. Two – the incongruency between their level of sophistication and the brutality they’re being asked to carry out in Ukraine is too large. Three – they will come to acknowledge that their political passivity is what made possible a despot like Putin. Four – Russians will recognize that they allowed Putin to numb their emotional world and so gave themselves permission to live in fear of the tyrant. The wholesale destruction of lives and property currently under way in Ukraine, is happening in a world that is the most interconnected there has ever been. Everything is on display. Nothing can be hidden that won’t surface shortly thereafter. In consequence, our emotions are heightened. Such richness is essential to freedom. Putin can hide from Russians the atrocities in Ukraine for only so long. Soon enough, all the details of the carnage will be known to everyone. And then Russians will come to accept that, in their passivity, they became Putin’s accomplices. Which is why they will revolt. With the continued support of the West, and Russians’ challenge of Putin from within, Ukraine will push Russia out of their territory. And the two nations will be good neighbors and prosper. In this day, when talks of mediation between warrying parties take place, the matter of freedom should be on the table.
Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts
What to do about Hungary? They’re ruled by an autocrat, Viktor Orban, who they just reelected easily. They also like Putin. Which helps explain their choice. They refuse to join in the West’s vigorous support of Ukraine. They just told the president of the European Commission, Ursula Von Leyen, that they had no interest in joining the EU’s embargo of Russian oil. The only way they’d do it, is if the EU provided them with ‘billions and billions’ to upgrade their energy grid to make them self reliant. Any hint of sacrificing themselves a little to assist Ukraine is off the table. No blurred positions. They are clear about what they want. But they like the protection that NATO offers. And the subsidies that come from the EU. Plus the free borders with the rest of Europe. The perks, yes, the responsibilities, no. So the EU should look for a way to boot Hungary out of the union. Mr Orban has been doing this dance for a while so I’m sure that option is being debated. Geography offers Hungary some protection. If their location were a bit different, as for instance between Belarus and Ukraine, rather than near the center of Europe, they would be a good candidate for a swap. As in the EU saying to Mr Orban, ‘Why don’t you go over to Putin’s side, we’ll take Ukraine instead. We’ll withdraw you from NATO so you can apply for the benevolent protection of Vladimir Putin’. Although I suspect Mr Orban might not like the idea. He seems to prefer playing both sides to see how much he can get. But there is good news from the war front also. Finland is about to apply for membership in NATO and Sweden is expected to follow. Putin must be kicking himself since he told us he must invade Ukraine to push NATO away, and instead now has two nearby nations wanting their protection. Something about his messaging is not getting through. This morning I read that Erdogan in Turkey, is opposed to Finland and Sweden joining NATO. He plays both sides, also. Sends drones to Ukraine, then seeks to ingratiate himself with Putin. But gradually we have discovered that the Russian leader is not an imposing figure at all. He overestimated the power of his armed forces, underestimated the resolve of Ukrainians and the West, sacrificed thousands of people in the pursuit of his folly and has become an object of scorn to most of the world. I’m sure he’s even strained his relationship with China since he probably promised a quick victory, not the messy and lengthy affair the invasion has turned out to be. Although we haven’t seen clear signs of it yet, I believe he’s under pressure from within Russia, from sectors in industry, commerce and the military, which upon taking stock of the damage done by their leader are asking, ‘isn’t it time to get rid of him?’ The magnitude of that internal force is the wild card in this war. Let’s hope we get to see it play out as soon as possible. And no, Crimea would not be a retirement option.
Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts
Dear Elon: You are being deified and you’re loving it. Which worries me. Here are statements I read earlier in an Associated Press article published today. ‘You have a guy who probably has an unmeasurable IQ…’ said a professor in Michigan referring to you. C’mon, man, don’t believe a word of it. Your IQ is measurable. Here’s another, from a venture capitalist who worked with you at PayPal. ‘Elon, on his worst day, is probably 100 times more effective than anybody else in America.’ I had to pause to swallow that one. Look around, Elon, all kinds of creative people are making contributions to mankind every day. And non creative people, too. Who keeps the lights on? Another praise from a few days ago, ‘Tesla is Musk.’ Really? If so, what happened to all the engineers and mathematicians, designers, technicians and craftspeople who actually make the vehicles you sell, or the rockets Space X launches? One more. I read of someone who, dazzled by your aura, stated, ‘If we lose Musk, what’re we doing to do?’ Will the world come to an end if we lose you? No, Elon, it will not. So, please, it’s not good for you to believe those who wish to deify you. It’s not good for TSLA stock, either. Particularly now that you’re off on the quest to making Twitter the paragon of free speech. Actually, you’ve not had a good start because to say like you did recently, that to ban Trump from Twitter was ‘morally wrong,’ is a big mistake. Mr Trump was banned because he was inciting violence. Inciting violence is not free speech. It is a crime. That you don’t get that, or don’t have people around you with enough sense to tell you that, is most worrisome. The deification of others is a peculiarly human phenomenon. Highly intelligent people fall into it. I think it’s associated with an urge to surrender, to worship, to not accept that it’s all of us together who decide our fate. Every day. All of us – together – collaborating in ways small and large. Accepting such truth is hard, so it must be easier to surrender instead. So please, try to keep yourself from being seduced by praise, for it will lead you to making mistakes. Guaranteed. Here are a few suggestions: 1) take the reins. Remind people who adore you that you’re human. Not superhuman. You are very ambitious and capable, so thank you for that, but you have limitations also. 2) Stop smoking marijuana. It dulls your brain cells. 3) Recognize the work of others in bringing your ideas to market. Hang in there, Elon. You can do it. Best.
Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts
Oscar Valdes 