Your leader is massacring Ukrainians. By choosing to invade their country he has given license to kill innocent people. Men, women and children.
Your country was not being threatened but your leader, who does as he pleases because few object, came up with the idea that he was being threatened and so he thought he must give the order to kill Ukrainians. He could do so because most Russians have been silenced. Silenced by fear. All of us pay a price when we allow others to intimidate us. That is why it is so important to respect free speech. To hold free elections.
But year after year of your leader being in power – since 1999 – the Russian majority has chosen to be quiet. And now all of us pay the price. Not just you but Ukrainians and the rest of the world. You are not alone in your passivity. In China, a section of the country has cheered on the invaders, celebrating the killing of Ukrainians by your leader. They too, like you, have yielded to fear for they have neither free speech nor free elections, but they cheer on invading Russian troops in the belief that by doing so they get to turn fear into courage.
Ukrainians know better. They know their freedom has a price. And in refusing to be governed by Moscow – refusing to have to answer to your boss – have put up an heroic resistance against a superior army and vowed not to yield. Their president, Volodymyr Zelensky has been leading the effort. If he were ever to doubt that he had the strength to do so, he need only look to his grandfather who was a soldier in the Russian Army in World War II. Ukrainians’ valor has marked this moment in history and the nation has become the pride of our world.
Because the murderous invasion of Ukraine has not gone according to plan and their people are fighting back, now your leader speaks of setting your nuclear forces in high alert. But the West will not be intimidated. We will not stop sending arms to the Ukrainian resistance and one day they will be proud NATO members. The pain inflicted by your leader will not be forgotten.
I know there is a core of dissenters in your country. That men and women with enormous courage have chosen to defy your leader and have suffered or have been killed or exiled because of it. But the number of dissenters must grow. The protests have to increase. The abuses of a man who does not listen to his people must be challenged.
For a nation to thrive there must be an open dialogue with its leaders. You need to fight to have that dialogue. Look at Germany. Until a day ago it was unwilling to send arms to Ukraine. But protests mounted and they have now changed course. They have committed to aid brave Ukraine. That dialogue has died in Russia and so your leader is free to do as he wishes.
Dear Russians, you could have that dialogue, too, but you must demand it. So why don’t you stand up and joins us? We welcome your contributions to humanity’s grand project – men and women’s eternal struggle to have a voice of their own and live with dignity.
Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net anchor.fm, buzzsprout, medium.com, apple and google podcasts.
The brutality that Putin has unleashed against Ukraine is an attack on the West.
Falsely claiming that he is being threatened, Putin has chosen to ravage a country which, having been enslaved by the Soviet Union, now choses to commit to a world of freedom.
He has resorted to all manner of lies. Called the Ukrainian government ‘Nazis’, said that Ukraine’s effort to fend off attacks by Russian separatists in the Donbas region are an act of genocide against the Russian people.
But Ukrainians need only look to their neighbor to see what they will become if they continue to live under the boot of Putin and his supporters.
As I write, more Russian forces advance on Kyiv which is being bombed and where street fighting is raging.
The images of their suffering touches all of us deeply.
Both Ukrainian men and women have volunteered to fight for their land, to resist, to put obstacles in the path to the invaders.
They are willing to face the trained soldiers of a clearly more powerful army no matter what the consequences. In the photos that reach us there they are, holding guns in their hands, their souls looking at us directly and asking, why?
Those brave volunteers that we see standing in the photos may be dead in the next hours.
Protests rallies have sparked all over the world. The blue and yellow of the Ukrainian flag is worn proudly by protesters and displayed on buildings or in night lighting.
Ukrainian men and women living in Poland are choosing to return to Ukraine to defend their land.
Volodymyr Zelensky has bravely called on all willing to join the struggle. ‘Wherever you are, come help us.’
His cry ‘What use will the sanctions be after they bomb us?’ resonates in the hearts and minds of those who are in a position to change things.
His pressure has had effects. Now Putin has been included in the list of those being sanctioned after a more cautious approach proved futile. Restrictions on Russia’s banking have been stiffened. But nothing has stopped him so far. And perhaps nothing will.
But the West needs to go where it hurts.
The West needs to go all out and completely stop the buying of oil and gas from Russia.
Putin has gambled, that the West will support Ukraine but stop short if its sanctions hurt our economy.
But it is not only Ukraine but the West that is under attack.
This is the time to act and accept the inflationary pressures that will come from energy shortages and their impact on economic production.
Now is the time to act.
China, in its stance to stand by Russia, tells us clearly who and what they value. That is what their government is. They will do whatever they can to weaken the West, even though they are now where they are now partly because of what the West has contributed to their development.
But they are thinking ahead and planning to do in Taiwan what Russia is now doing in Ukraine.
Like Russia, the Chinese are governed by leaders who are enemies of free speech. Leaders who think nothing of squashing the democracy movement in Hong Kong or ruthlessly suppressing the Uyghur people in Xinjiang province.
This is a time for the West to act decisively.
There will be economic pain if we stop purchasing oil and gas from Russia but a world order will be staunchly defended by such action.
This is the time to start isolating Putin.
This is the time for him to pay the consequences of his brutality. A brutality that has been in full display in his backing of Assad in Syria and other countries.
He reasons that his ambitions are worth whatever the cost in human lives. He doesn’t care.
But he is not Russia.
And Russia is not Putin. There are great people in Russia, a land with a vast pool of talent as seen in their creativity, scientific and cultural.
As we speak, Russians are also struggling under the boot of a ruthless tyrant.
We believe in the power of men and women. And men and women everywhere long for freedom. In Russia, in China, in Syria, in Venezuela, all over the world. The task is to aid them in breaking the chains that have been placed upon them by cruel leaders thinking only of their own benefits.
Cutting off Russia from the oil markets in the West will have an enormous negative impact on their economy. And Russians will choose between remaining under Putin’s boot, or joining with the rest of the world, a world that is eager and open to embrace them.
This is the time to place the severest sanctions on Russia for we are under attack.
President Zelensky’s statement, ‘What use will the sanctions be after they bomb us?’ should be our collective battle cry.
This is the time to act.
Before more and more people are killed and subjugated.
Putin will not change. He is who he is. He has placed his bet.
We have to place ours.
‘What use will the sanctions be after they bomb us?’
Oscarvaldes.net anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts, medium.com
He sits alone in his bunker, watching the bombing of Ukraine, rockets being fired, buildings being set on fire or demolished. He has just got news that his forces took over Chernobyl, north of Kyiv. He does not yet know the number of dead, on either side.
The sanctions didn’t stop him from invading. Whatever additional ones the West promises to impose, won’t either. Sure, some of his wealthy associates will be harmed by such restrictions but he will remind them that they owe him. That they are where they are because of him.He is having the time of his life, relishing being top of the news worldwide and being feared. He is rich, but that brings him little solace. The acquisition of wealth is not what drives him. Power is what moves him. And he’s living his grand moment.
For too long he’s been in the shadows of world leaders he considers his inferiors when it comes to drive and sheer ambition. He’s had to live with the frustration of seeing other economies rise and rise, becoming the envy of the world. Apple, for instance, the American technology company, has a value greater than Russia’s entire economy. How did they do that? He wishes he had been able to unleash the full creative potential of his fellow Russians. But he didn’t. Somehow, he reflects, his concern with power, stood in the way.
On a clear night, when he looks up at the sky as he is fond of doing and sees the international space station orbiting the earth, he thinks of the Russian cosmonauts up there. And he reminds himself that it was two Russians and an American who first went up to that station. Years ago. He knows he presides over a powerhouse of talent. Russians with great ability in many fields. And yet, economically, Russia is in the shadows of America and now China. It is hard to stomach.
In his clearer moments, he recognizes that the world sees him as associated with brutality. Supporting the vicious Assad in Syria, for instance. The Generals in Myanmar. The repressive government of Maduro in Venezuela. And associates of his, with his consent, of course, have mercenary troops spreading through Africa, aiding in the coercion and subjugation of hundreds of thousands of people. All of that and yet, somehow, whatever the pain being inflicted, doesn’t keep him up at night. He sleeps soundly. How interesting the human mind, able to put things in separate spaces – boxes or compartments, call them what you wish – so that there is little spilling over between them. Ah, but enough of that introspection.
He has invaded his beloved Ukraine because it belongs to him, belongs to Russia, and whatever the costs to be paid he will pay them. His troops have acted quickly and decisively so there will be little chance for an armed resistance to make a difference. He will put Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky in a plane and send him to Poland, or Moldova. Anywhere but keep him in Ukraine. Let him blah blah all he wants about Putin in exile, but he will not set foot in Ukraine ever again.
He is surprised that Biden had the gumption to rally Europeans to oppose him. He likes that about him. Feisty. But he’s always liked feisty people. And then being able to outwit and dominate them. He pauses and swivels around in his chair. The mood pensive.
‘I grant that during my reign, I did not have the ability to free up the creativity and imagination of Russians… that’s just not me… but I did have the genius to develop a terrific armed force, to facilitate the development of an arms industry, and make Russians proud’.
He closes his eyes as he rubs his face softly. ‘Biden will not give in but neither will I. And I will drive my army all the way to the border with Romania, Moldova, Hungary and Poland. And scare the West… so Russians will be happy, like they were when we went into Crimea. As to the sanctions, I’m not worried. We will find ways around them. China will help, of course. They know they need me. Though now and then I will have to remind them I have lots more nuclear warheads than they do.’ He laughs.
‘In America, Trump likes me. How interesting. Something about my charismatic personality. I never imagined that would happen. I love it, of course. And when the next elections come around, well, I’ll think of something. Anyway, whether Trump gets reelected or not, sooner or later, an American president will be chosen who doesn’t care about Ukraine, and the sanctions will be lifted. Europe may complain but without American support, they will slowly yield. It will be their excuse to appease me. And all their presidents, chancellors and prime ministers will come to Moscow to endear themselves to me, to buy my oil and gas and wheat and aluminum and nickel and palladium, for we have it all, and get back to business as usual. But Ukraine will be mine.’
He leans over to the desk next to him and picks up a globe of the earth. He looks at the area where Ukraine is drawn. He taps on it and says, ‘how many men can boast that they redrew the boundaries of a country?’ And he laughs loudly. ‘I can see the title of an upcoming book by some writer, “Putin, the Conqueror”. Maybe even become a film.’ He laughs again.
Behind him, in the wall monitors facing his desk, Russian war planes fly over cities in Ukraine.
Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.
Said Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, a few days ago. He is right. The West has announced sanctions on two major Russian banks and on Russian debt after Putin’s troops entered the Donetsk and Lugansk ‘new’ republics in the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine.
But the EU–US alliance is choosing to not announce what is to follow until the invader takes the next step. To Putin, that smells of the West not being truly convinced of his intentions to take over the entire Ukraine. The only firm deterrent to him would have been NATO’s troops on the ground, but since Ukraine is not a NATO member, that was never going to happen.
There is a clear difference in the motivations of the contending parties. Putin has made up his mind to annex Ukraine. The West, though committed to placing sanctions on him, is not quite clear on which ones to choose. So Putin, who’s willing to dare and push his way through the entire country, East to West, North to South, is not deterred by them.
Regardless of Mr Biden’s firm efforts in addressing the crisis, Putin is calculating that the West’s lack of strong conviction owes to their needing to check with lots of nations to make sure no one member of the alliance is disproportionately burdened by any one sanction. Putin, on the other hand, does not have to weigh any such considerations. He alone speaks for Russia, and therein lies his advantage.
It was a confidence booster for the West to hear that, upon starting the invasion, Germany had stepped up and stopped the certification of Nord Stream 2, the gas pipeline from Russia to their northern shore. But as Putin’s troops run over Ukraine, what else will they agree on?
Putin seems to have no interest in diplomacy.
‘What use will the sanctions be after they bomb us?’
Zelensky sees, quite clearly, that Ukraine matters more to Putin than to the West. Placing sanctions on Russia will also have an economic cost to the West but it is Ukraine that will pay dearly once they end up a vassal state. Ukrainians know this is their fight. They know it will be Ukrainian blood that will be spilled. Western principles will be invoked and sanctions placed on Russia to support such principles, but in the end the great fight will be fought by Ukrainians. It will be their parents and children and brothers and sisters who will die in defense of their land, paying with their flesh and blood the price to have a destiny of their own.
Putin is no grand strategist but a clever and vicious thug. He can spot weakness in an adversary and do what he needs to suit his needs. Today, he is bent on grabbing a nation, capturing a people, subjecting it to his will. We don’t know what he will want tomorrow. Letting him know in advance what the sanctions are may be more effective than announcing them after his assaults. And though sanctions alone, however severe, will not deter him, they will inflict harm, which combined with Ukrainians’ courage to fight may prove decisive.
Ukrainians know it us up to them to bear the greater cost of the struggle. And that surrender is not an option.
Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts
Will he invade Ukraine? He is inside a bunker somewhere in Russia. Alone in a room surrounded by screens showing satellite imagery of his troops and those of his enemy, NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization).
He has been kept busy lately with so many world leaders coming to see him, to show him deference, respect, and talk about Ukraine, about his plans to invade or not his rebellious neighbor. He will do with Ukrainians what he did with the people in neighboring Belarus who, choosing to protest their last election’s rigged results favoring continuing ties with Russia, ended up instead crushed by the power of the state. They wanted democracy? Sure. A big kick in the pants and everyone straight to prison is what they got.
You don’t turn against Putin’s rule and get away with it. And yet, Ukraine ignored the facts and chose to defy him. Again. They have chosen to keep cozying up to the West. To talk about one day joining NATO – and their president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has kept acting like he was independent and willing to challenge mother Russia.
So, to set things straight, he’s surrounded Ukraine on all sides possible – north, south and east – and is ready to invade them. Why? Because such talk of independence is like a cancer or a virus. It spreads, making people think that they can one day do as they wish, without consulting him. But, he, Vladimir Putin, will show the price they will pay. He stated it very clearly to the West. He wants assurances that Ukraine will never be part of NATO. And that the West does not hold any military exercises in countries that border with Russia. Every Russian needs more space. Ample room to breathe and develop. Lebensraum, as the Germans would say.
So far, the West has not accepted his demands – they’re being testy for some reason – but he’s got assurances that America will not send troops into Ukraine. That’s all he needs to invade. For now. He loves being the talk of the world. Finally. His name in the leading articles of every major newspaper. Everybody taking a guess at what he might do. Or not do. The stock markets everywhere going down when he says one thing, going up if he says another. Beautiful.
The fates of thousands of people at his disposal. If he says ‘roll with the invasion,’ the explosions and roar of tanks and guns and airplanes will start immediately and he will destroy his opponents. Just like that. What power to have!
He’s sure he’s envied by so many leaders in the world who can only dream of being in his position. And he’s convinced that the Russian people love him. Not just love him but adore him. He is their hero. What they all have wanted to be. Just like Xi Jinping is to all Chinese. He does wonder, sometimes, that being in power as long as he has, has taken out something vital from ordinary Russians. That they may have lost the will to assert themselves politically. Of course that doesn’t include Alexei Navalny, whom he’s keeping in prison and will keep in prison for as long as he lives. He only needs to charge him again and again with some other offense, and the lawyers and judges will not dare defy him. Oh, the beauty of absolute power. He smiles.
He thinks of Donald Trump in America. He, too, wanted absolute power, but the man wasn’t ruthless enough. You have to be ruthless to get to where he is now. No room for anything else.
But will he invade Ukraine? That’s the question everyone wants an answer to. He wonders what the odds in Las Vegas are. The positives far outweigh the negatives, that is clear to him.
He will order a blitzkrieg and the poor Ukrainians will be so overwhelmed that they will lay down their arms instantly and beg for mercy. The disobedient Zelensky will piss in his pants when he hears the thunder of the jets over Kyiv and wonder why he ever stopped being a comedian.
And at the first sounds of warfare, all the business elites in the West will rush to call Joe Biden and plead – on their knees – that the sanctions he imposes on Russia be mild and not hurt their bottom line. Plus, they will add, ‘won’t China help Russia sidestep the sanctions, anyway? Why create needless trouble?’ ‘Mr Biden,’ they will implore, ‘You’ve been a politician all your life, you know how important it is to compromise. Please sir. Sacrifices need to be made. Let Putin have Ukraine and everything will be okay. What’s the big deal? They are barely 43.5 million people.
And Putin will smile again and now think about what he wants for lunch. He’s in the mood for lamb. Roasted lamb – ‘a la Putin’ – one of his favorites. My little lambs, he thinks. Deathly afraid of the brilliant moves of Russia’s leader. The comforts the Europeans have worked for have softened them. All of them. Except for the British. Bulldogs they fancy themselves to be, but we’re bears! And Putin laughs.
He now takes a moment to call the kitchen to order his choice.
He’s counting on all those businesspeople in the West to help his cause. The same businesspeople who have been pleading with their governments to look the other way when it comes to China because there’s too much money in that huge market. So never mind the Uyghurs. Think of the bottom line. Think of the Money.
Who said the world was perfect? Some will have to be sacrificed. It’s the way things are. Examples are everywhere. A minute ago, everyone was in an uproar about Burma and the repressive generals, now everyone seems to have forgotten about it. Except the Burmese.
But that’s the world, isn’t it? Might is Right.
Biden may have unified the West in opposing him, but after he invades, a few weeks later, everyone will get back to business, the stock market will rally and people will ask, What was that all about? Never mind. Who’s going to be in the next Super Bowl?
Meanwhile, the cartographers will quietly redraw the map lines of Russia and no one will mind. China and Xi Jinping will grumble publicly, just a little, about his annexing Ukraine, to satisfy America, but will keep buying from him the oil, gas and minerals they need. Of course they will. The Chinese know they can’t piss him off. Anyway, he’s got way more nuclear warheads than they have.
He pauses.
He’s feeling hungry. It will be a little while before the roasted lamb will be ready. And he wonders again, when will be the best time to invade Ukraine. Tomorrow? The next day? He’ll decide after lunch.
And what country will be next? Because there must be another one to follow. Little Moldova? Why, his troops can do them in an afternoon. A mere exercise for junior officers.
No. He needs to think big. Big. He wants to go down in history as the man who recovered all the territory taken from them when the Cold War ended. He wants to be known as the man who redrew the map of Europe. Glory awaits the bold!
And so, if, as he suspects, the sanctions by the West prove to be of little consequence, why not go for it… go for it and test NATO. Invade Poland, or Hungary, Romania. All three? Just dare them and expose how weak they are. Dare!
Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net. anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts
Mr Zelensky, president of Ukraine, recently stated publicly, after a meeting with chancellor Scholz of Germany, that perhaps Ukraine’s desire to one day become part of NATO was only a dream.
Dear sir, now, more than ever, Ukraine needs to embrace her dream.
When Russians are growling at your borders, baring their teeth and threatening to devour you with their superior forces, Ukraine needs to embrace her dream.
When many in the world have rushed supplies to you so you can fight the good fight, Ukraine needs to embrace her dream.
We don’t know how this will end, but there have already been thousands of courageous Ukrainians who have given their lives in combat because they believed in their country’s dream.
This is not the time to hesitate.
While your country remains divided, a majority have spoken up and said they want to chart their own course in history. They have stepped up and said they do not want to live under the feet of a bully neighbor.
I read that many of your citizens have chosen to no longer speak in Russian and so affirm the Ukrainian language.
Ukrainians and Russians have shared a past but Ukrainians reject being chained and oppressed by them and wish to embrace the future as a separate nation.
To forge ahead on this uncertain path, the nation needs to dream.
You should not, as their leader, in a moment of great consequence, succumb to doubt. Russia is forcing a course upon you. They are not asking but compelling you to obey them.
They say that they feel threatened. But the West nor you have threatened Russia. It is an invention of theirs to grab more territory. An invention of a leader who wants more and more land under his authority.
In the face of overpowering forces, it is the dream your people harbor that will sustain the hope to fight on. It is the dream that will fuel the resistance against the intruders.
Mr Zelensky, time is running out. It may be that you are now living the last days of your presidency.
Let your people know, on any occasion you have, that you stand with the dream of a free Ukraine. That you will fight for it, and never bow to anyone who wishes to decide for you what your future should be.
Sir, you owe it to yourself, to your nation and to your children.
Long live a free Ukraine.
Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net. anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.
One. Russia launches a massive cyberattack followed by a full assault from the air, land and sea.They overwhelm the Ukrainian army and the population surrenders without a fight. President Zelensky and his cabinet are flown to Germany. Pockets of resistance are snuffed out with missile attacks.
Two. Russia launches a full attack but Ukrainians fight back and thousands are killed. The world watches in horror as Russian tanks roll over everything and planes bomb the population. Zelensky and the cabinet leave for Poland to form a government in exile. The West refrains from combat as planned and opens the borders of Poland, Hungary and Romania to war refugees.
Three. Russia attacks but Ukrainians resist with such force that they stop the attack. Huge quantities of weaponry are flown in from the West to support the effort. President Zelensky calls for volunteers from the rest of the world to aid in the resistance. A Brigade for Freedom in Ukraine is formed. The world denounces the enormous loss of life and property and a United Nations security council meeting is convened to sanction Russia but China vetoes the motion arguing that Russia is only defending itself from western threats. The fight roars on for weeks until a truce is agreed upon and Ukraine is officially divided between East and West. Kyiv will be in the West.
(China, meanwhile, speeds up preparations to invade Taiwan)
Four. Russia does nothing. They start to deescalate and blame the West for goading them into a fight. But they reinforce the dissident forces in the Donbas area and have them renew their push against the Ukrainian forces.
Five. Russia sends in special commandos in a nighttime raid that kidnaps president Zelensky and flies him to Minsk, setting up the stage for a Russia friendly president to take over.
Six. Errant missiles fired by Russia land in Poland and Hungary inflicting human and material destruction and causing western nations to ready for war in keeping with article 5 of the NATO charter. A nuclear confrontation looms. The stock market drops 2000 points in a single day as the world goes into a recession.
Seven. Putin is put under house arrest and a new leader emerges in Russia. To the public, he just caught Covid.
Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net. anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.
Putin keeps circling Ukraine, amassing troops around it and tightening his grip. Ukrainians are running out of air. They have started to have trouble breathing.
Putin is loving the world’s attention. This is what he’s always dreamed of. Americans rushing frantically, here and there, trying to convince allies that the time is now and some allies saying, ‘Well… I’m not sure.’
Putin laughs. And he thinks, you have to be doing like the ostrich does, to not see what’s in front of you.
But of course he will invade.
The West is divided. Beautiful. Just Beautiful.
Trucker protests in Canada are now spreading to America and France and affecting commerce, rattling nerves. ‘We need freedom!’ they chant as they blare their horns for hours on end stressing everybody else. ‘Pay attention to me!’ ‘I count too!’ ‘No vaccine mandates!’ they say.
And in their minds, they must be convinced that if they keep it up, they will be able to bend the arm of government and boost the chances of a nationalist party rising to the top and finally putting an end to that nasty immigration problem they have and can’t solve, plus the worrying about other countries far, far away. Too far.
Long live Trump!
And when Putin runs over Ukraine and crushes them, shamelessly making the country a province of the greater Russia, the protesters in the West will simply say, ‘Putin needs his space. So long as he respects ours, we’ll be okay. He’s one of us, a devoted nationalist.’
Meanwhile, to aid their case, business interests in Germany are saying that the talk of economic sanctions on Russia when they invade, would affect them as much as the Russians and that prices would go up for all. So no sanctions, please. We cannot afford it. How about a slap on the wrist, instead? If Putin wants a little bit more of Ukraine to feel less anxious about his hold on power, why not give it to him? It’s just Ukraine, so relax. Anyway, the man won’t live forever. And we need to keep an eye on our bottom line, that’s number one.’
And Putin will be smiling. He could kiss the truckers and their rants and the businessmen fretting over the bottom line being above everything else.
‘You are lovely, thank you’ Putin will say. ‘I agree with you, some people need to be sacrificed sometimes. We all know that. The Germans knew it. They just went about it the wrong way. You won’t see me making that same mistake again. I promise. So long as I live.’
If divisions in America are not enough, then there’s inflation.
Supply chains have not got back to normal, demand is driving up prices and traders and investors are panicking. Stocks are dropping like lead in water – straight down – investors worrying that the new interest rates the Federal Reserve will set in March will be either too high or too low. The Federal Reserve won’t be able to do enough to calm the nerves. If the new rate increase is 0.5 bps investors will sell because the central bank is too aggressive. If the new rate increase is 0.25 bps then the Feds don’t know what they’re doing and are avoiding reality. Either way, value will drain out of the markets.
Putin will be salivating.
‘Oh, I never imagined it would look this good. In congress, Republicans and Democrats can barely agree on anything. Republicans have Biden checked. The poor guy, a lifetime waiting to govern and then he gets blocked. And Republicans will squash him in November. No, not squash but stomp on him. And Kamala Harris can forget about it. The two houses will be Republican and my good friend Donald Trump will win in November 2024. It will be great to see him again. He and I can talk. We can divide Europe according to our wishes. He can keep Britain – I’ve never been fond of those rascals. But Poland, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, the Baltic nations, they will come my way. A new era dawns. Thank you, Donald, for planting the seeds. Thank you for inspiring the Capitol assault on 1/6/2020and the way that has influenced the imagination of Americans. Thank you, you are the greatest. I wouldn’t be on the brink of invading Ukraine and making it a province of Mother Russia if it weren’t for the way you set things up. The way you showed Americans that there is indeed a place for totalitarian government, for the rule of the majority. I’ll be forever grateful. And maybe, you can change the constitution so you can get elected a 3rd time. I promise you all the help I can possibly give. I’ll keep you out of it, of course, so as not to compromise you. What are good friends for.’
And Putin has one final thought.
It has occurred to him to contact some groups and urge them to stage another assault on the Capitol… and even the White House itself. But it might be too obvious. But there are people willing. Still, he will tread carefully. He knows the field. He was once a trusted KGB man. So he knows that world. In and out. And how some spies will work for both sides.
Feeling like he’s on top of the world, he smiles confidently and says, ‘I’ve got them.’
Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net. anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts
The largest nation in the world, with vast mineral resources and a capable people,
is not on a par with the leading nations of the West. Is not on a par with China.
People don’t travel to Russia as they do to other leading nations.
But they have nuclear weapons in abundance, so they are prone to scare the rest of the world with firing them. Never mind that the rest of the world will fire back too and the result will be catastrophic.
Why are Russians so afraid of the rest of us?
Why do they let a man like Putin be their leader?
Russia is not a free country.
Dissident organizations that Putin sees as critical of him are labelled terrorists and banned. Critics of his regime are imprisoned or killed.
Putin is a defender and supporter of Assad in Syria, of the ruthless military in Burma, of Maduro in Venezuela, of Ortega in Nicaragua. Name a repressive government in the world and the likelihood is that Russia is having a hand in propping them up and defending them.
Still, most Russians seem able to turn off the lights at night and sleep till morning, their conscience undisturbed.
Today, Russia is a threat in Ukraine, a country with whom they have a shared history. Mind you, neighbors disagree all the time and should be allowed to do so. But Putin says no, Ukraine cannot disagree with this wonderful system I lead, this majestic empire of ours, and if they stray from our path we will crush them.
And so Russians are afraid because they have been intimidated by Putin and his close supporters.
It can happen anywhere. Trump in America wanted to do it. His supporters still try.
But the price we pay in allowing it is great.
The price of yielding to fear is that we are diminished as people, as human beings.
The price is that we get smaller inside.
The price is that we give up on opportunities that may not come back.
Putin wants to govern until he dies. But the longer that Russians put up with him, the more lasting the damage he inflicts on them.
And he will invent all kinds of threats from the West or anywhere, to tell Russians ‘look at what they are doing to us! But I’m here to defend you!’
It’s all a show, ‘The Putin Show.’
History will see it clearly, but Russians should not wait for history. Their lives are now. They need to step up and dare to develop their vast potential and in so doing rise to be among the leading nations of today’s world.
It will take courage. But anything we earn takes courage.
Fellow Russians – brothers and sisters – you have the power.
Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net. anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and goggle podcasts.
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On Sunday, president Macron of France was quoted by a French newspaper as stating that he did not believe Russia’s goal was to seize Ukraine, but instead to ‘clarify the rules of cohabitation’ with NATO and the EU. He added that Russia had a right to seek security guarantees from the West.
But who is doing the threatening in Ukraine?
Who has encircled it with 130,000 troops?
Who annexed Crimea in 2014, biting off a huge chunk from Ukriane?
Who has fueled a war in the Donbas area in eastern Ukraine with cumulative deaths estimated to be 14,000 and counting?
The West is racing to help arm Ukraine with defensive weapons only, not the kind they could use to attack Russia. And the West is doing it so Ukrainians can put up a good fight when the Russian tanks start rolling and their airplanes start strafing their people.
Mr Macron’s need to seek attention seems to have outrun his common sense.
Maybe it’s the prospect of national elections later this year that is the key motivator.
Mr Macron went further. He stated that one of the models on the table was to make Ukraine like Finland during the Cold War with the Soviet Union, when the Finnish were allowed to remain ‘independent’ but they could not join NATO, and Russia was permitted to have ‘considerable influence over their political options.’
So the West allows Ukraine to be ‘considerably’ influenced by Russia?
Doesn’t that sound like betrayal?
To please Putin’s paranoia?
In another article, mention is made of a spokesperson for Russia’s Foreign Ministry, a woman declaring that the West was demonizing Russia, so as to take public attention away from their domestic crises, invest huge sums to arm ‘fragile democracies’ (as in Ukraine), and bolster an image of invincibility that has been weakened by the Afghanistan collapse.
But do we have political prisoners like you do?
What about releasing Alexei Navalny, whom you poisoned and nearly killed?
What about your branding every dissident organization you find upsetting, a terrorist one?
In democracies we sometimes elect people to govern us who are not fit, but we can throw them out at the end of their terms. You can’t do that. You’ve been stuck with Putin since 1999.
Yes, we parade every day our million flaws so that the whole world wonders how it is we still function.
But we do.
And we prosper.
Unlike Russia, where, with no free press, the citizenry is daily growing convinced that it is America who wants to invade them.
Quoted statements for this piece come from articles appearing in the New York Times on 2/7/2022. The reflections and judgments are my own.
Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net. anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts
Oscar Valdes 