Putin’s Nightmare

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He woke up, startled. The windowless room was dark.
His girlfriend who’d stayed with him the evening before didn’t spend the night because she had some matters to address early the next morning.
At first he didn’t remember anything that had disturbed his sleep but he knew something had.
His body was sweaty and he didn’t feel right.
He swung his legs off the bed, turned on the lamp on the nightstand and stood up.
He checked the time. It was 2:50 AM. Which meant he’d slept about three hours.
He crossed to the table at the center of the room and sat down.
Leaning forward, he put his face in his hands. Whatever it was that was disturbing him, would soon come back. That’s how it was with him. Upon awakening he wouldn’t remember his dreams but after a short while some trace of them would come back and then he would be able to reconstruct it.
Now he thought of America. Next the sanctions they had been imposing on him. Then of Zelensky. And it hit him. He had lost Ukraine.
He shuddered. He straightened up in his chair and put his arms around himself.
‘Fuckers!’ ‘Goddamn fuckers!’ He said loudly.
Ukrainian forces had killed 12 of his generals. They were using intelligence from the West to find and kill them. ‘Bastards!’
He had never, not even once, imagined that Ukrainians would have it in them to fight as they had. Not just to fight but to raise the hope that they might push back the mighty Russian army. The mighty force he’d used to threaten the world.
Now Finland was thinking of joining NATO.
Sweden might follow.
‘Assholes!’
Worst of all was that he had lost the respect of the West.
He’d talked of his nuclear arms, always threatening with firing them… and now the West wasn’t scared anymore. They had gone from the wary and respectful, ‘we don’t want to use the weapons because it will be Armageddon’, to the impudent ‘screw you, Putin, if you use them, we’ll use them. We’re on to you, sucker! We won’t put up with your intimidation and bullying behavior. We’re fed up with it!’
‘Bastards!’
And nowhere was it more evident than in their invigorated push to arm Ukraine.
The turning point had been Ukraine’s pluck. It was their moxie, their determination, that had convinced the West that they were worth betting on, that they could be used to get to him, because that’s all what it was, getting to him. All the talk about freedom was bullshit. All they wanted was to unseat him, so they could get some puppet of their own in power and so expand their markets. That’s all it was.
He sat up in his chair. He didn’t like losing.
And yet… maybe… Ukrainians were really fighting for their freedom and he had not got it. He was so used to intimidating his fellow Russians that he thought he could intimidate everyone.
And why not? He had got away with intimidating Donald Trump, the American president. It had been a subtle job but he had done it. He was proud of it.
But then this two bit Senator from Delaware came in to mess up his plans. A nothing senator from a nothing state who had been Obama’s vice president only because Obama needed a white face to persuade Americans that the institution of the White House wasn’t going to the dogs.
And where the hell did Biden get his gumption? To call, him – Vladimir Putin – a killer on national television. To accuse him of being a war criminal. To have the confidence to rally a divided Europe. To convince Germany to give up its neutral stance. Was that really Biden, or was it some cabal of billionaires telling him what to do?
‘Fuck them all!’
He shook his head disconsolately as he felt very sad.
He was losing Ukraine… Ukraine… a dear part of the great Russia… losing it to the West.
His eyes moistened and he felt like crying.
He had had his mind set on conquering the whole of Ukraine. Annexing Crimea in 2014 had been the start. Followed by his support of the separatists in the Donbas area and in Transnistria in Moldova. And now he was in danger of losing it all. And everything had begun with Zelensky. Which reminded him, he had to talk to Lavrov, his foreign minister. That hadn’t been wise, to call Zelensky a Hitler. A Nazi, yes, that was part of the plan, but a Hitler? It was too much.
He was feeling a little better now. Thinking about things had helped.
All was not lost… not yet. He could still… if he really wanted… use tactical nuclear weapons… drop them on Kyiv… wipe out 100,000 residents, including Zelensky and company. Xi Jinping in China would understand. And so would Narendra Modi in India. Retaining power calls for drastic actions.
He was not stepping down, that was certain.
He had Russians by the throat. He liked it that way.
But the movement to go to the West had to stop.
Belarus would not be next. It would not. If Lukashenko couldn’t hold the fort, then he’d invade Belarus and squash the resistance, do whatever he had to do.
And he now worried that as the bodies of dead Russians returned home from Ukraine, the support of the people would start to weaken.
He didn’t know how the war would end. But whereas before he had been unwilling to compromise, now he was. Still, he needed to show something for his effort… for all those generals and soldiers killed… all those tanks and planes and equipment destroyed. But he had to show something.
Unless he chose to nuke Kyiv.
But where in the world could he go after that?
And what would the West do in retaliation?
He rubbed his face and paused. Then, as he opened his eyes slowly, he saw in his mind’s eye an image of Kyiv after being rebuilt by the West. And the city looked so modern and resplendent. And then he saw a new Mariupol, a new Kherson, Kharkiv, Irpin… all brilliantly redone, because the West wanted to shame him, to entice the rest of his Russia to turn away from him.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.

Zelensky and Putin Talk

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They sit across a long table, each at one end. They both have their arms resting on the table.

Z – We will not surrender.
P – How many more people you think will be killed?
Z – That’s up to you, isn’t it?
P – If you put down your arms, there will be no more deaths.
Z – But there will be no freedom.
P – Explain to me what that means.
Z – Letting people be who they wish to be.

Putin smiles dismissively.

Z – By your reaction I can tell you’ve never known it yourself.
P – I can have what I want when I want.
Z – At the expense of others. Others who have been too intimidated to revolt against you.
P – They don’t revolt because they like what I give them.
Z – Thousands of Ukrainians and Russians dead? Cities destroyed? Millions of people displaced? Is that your gift to your people? It will take us years to rebuild. I don’t think Russians are stupid.
P – I see you spend much time reading American propaganda.
Z – The Americans and you fought a long war against Nazi Germany. Now you say America is supporting a Nazi government in Ukraine and that I am a Nazi. Who do you really think believes that?
Those who choose to believe such lies have no minds. So you, sir, have managed to make them dumb politically. It happens to people when they are not free to express themselves. When they’re not free to think.
But all is not lost. I am sure one day there will be freedom in Russia. Just not under you.

Putin laughs.

P – But maybe under Alexei Navalny?
Z – Yes. And you don’t have the guts to let him out of prison and run against you in free elections because he will beat you soundly.
P (amused) – I have a very high approval rating…
Z – From non thinking people, but Navalny is another matter. You’re so afraid of him that you tried to kill him.
P – More American propaganda…
Z – German doctors established you used a nerve agent against Navalny, nearly killing him.
P – I did nothing of the kind. Navalny is in prison because of fraud he committed. And he will stay in prison. But let us not waste time on that. How is it that you think you can win a war against our superior army?
Z – We will beat you because we are fighting for our lives.
P – All of you?
Z – The great majority of us.
P – It is very sad… and very grandiose of you, to think you can stand up against me.
Z – Is it sad and grandiose to fight for what you believe?
P – There is still time… I can guarantee your safety and your family’s… but you must leave now. If not, I cannot promise anything.
Z – We will not surrender.
P – You say you are a comedian… but where is your sense of humor? Makes me wonder if you were any good.
Z – Excuse me. I am the president of a nation at war. A nation that will beat your army and boot you out of our territory.

Putin shakes his head slowly, growing irritation barely disguised.

P – You are sadly mistaken to think I will let you win. Listen carefully. I do not like wasting my time. I cannot lose this war. My whole existence depends on it. And I have the guns for it. I have the planes. I have the bombs. I have my people willing to sacrifice for a greater Russia.
Z – A greater Russia?
P – Do not interrupt me.

They stare at each other for an instant.

P – So far, out of a sense of compassion for your people…
Z – Compassion?
P – Yes…
Z – Compassion in Bucha? In Mariupol? In the bombing of a theater sheltering children, with clear markings saying so?
P (angrily) – What is the matter with you? Can you not listen? Do you not understand how much more brutal I can be?
Z – Oh, yes, I can. There is no end to how brutal you can be.
P (Pausing briefly as he restrains himself) – Mr Zelensky, I am a patient man, but you are pushing me.
Z – And you do not understand me. We will not surrender.
P (more calmly) – I will do whatever it takes to win this war.
Z – Whatever?
P – Yes.
Z – You will use nuclear weapons?
P – If you force me to.
Z – Force you to?
P (frustrated) – Do you want me to flatten Kyiv… leave it uninhabitable from radioactivity? Do you want the same for Lviv… Kharkiv…? Do you want to have that on your conscience for the rest of your life?
Z – My conscience but not yours?
P – Not mine… for I have a great union to rebuild, a union of republics destroyed by careless leaders… and the task to build a greater Russia is worth every sacrifice. I have been planning for this a long time. And now is the moment, now that the Americans are in decline and that China is on the rise. And we will rise like them, too.

They stare silently at each other for an instant.

Z – I grant that Russia has a distinguished history in all fields of endeavors… except one…
P – Which one?
Z – Politics. In that area it’s been all about terror, misery, control and enslavement. You gave us the Czars… serfdom… then followed with communism, a form of systematized dehumanization and poverty. So, what is it you’re trying to rebuild?
P (impatiently) – A union of republics to be feared by all in the world…
Z – Feared… but not respected?
P (sharply) – Stop being insolent!
Z – You’re speaking to the president of a free nation. I am not one of your many puppets.

Tense pause.

Z – One thing is to have rockets, another to have economic development. You mention China. Just when do you plan to catch up?
You have almost three times the population of South Korea but about the same GDP. Even though you are the 2nd largest oil producer in the world. What has gone wrong?
P – We are distributing the wealth from our oil and gas and our wheat and aluminum and nickel…
Z – Amongst your favorites… whom you have made ultrarich, but there’s not enough initiative in your people… not because they’re not talented, but because you have squashed it with your political and economic repression.

Putin frowns, a little lost.

Z – There’s no freedom in your land… and the lack of it has atrophied something in the Russian spirit. You set out to tame your people and you have won.
P – Russians like having one leader… like the Chinese…
Z – No, they don’t like it, they’re being forced to like it. But unlike you, the Chinese have had enough economic freedom to make their markets appealing to the west, although that is now changing.
In your zeal to control others, you have damaged the development of Russian minds and hearts. With all your natural riches, your people have been underperforming in the world stage… and you like it that way.
Now you want to do it to us.

Putin eyes Zelensky with disdain.

P – Do you think that the Americans will come to your aid if I drop nuclear bombs on you?
Z – I do not know.
P – They won’t.
Z – You don’t know that.
P – I have made it clear to them that I’m ready for a nuclear confrontation.
Z – Yes, and president Biden made it clear to you that you cannot use chemical weapons on our people. Who knows what he’ll do if you do.
P – His generals won’t let him. The business sector won’t let him. Congress won’t let him.
Z – You don’t know that. With Taiwan they have a policy of ‘strategic ambiguity,’ to keep the Chinese guessing. So maybe with you they’re being deliberately ambiguous also.
P – They wouldn’t dare.
Z – I wouldn’t challenge them.
P – Do you not see that they’re using you?
Z – Using us?
P – Of course. Using you to try and overcome their differences. And America wants Europe to buy oil from them instead of us. It’s all about the dollar. About expanding their markets and reducing ours. They don’t give a damn about you. It’s all a show. That’s what they’re good at. Deception. Show business. When the time comes, they’ll stab you in the back and hand you over to me. But I’m giving you a chance right now to surrender and come to our side and spare the lives of thousands of your people.
Z (a faint smile) – If our defense of freedom has helped the west be more unified, I am proud of that. I am not naïve. The west has its problems, its contradictions, its injustices, but I can do battle with those so long as I have freedom. With you, I will be a slave.
P – Idiot! How dare you! You are nothing! Ukraine is nothing! You mean nothing to the world and I will destroy you.
Z (looking Putin in the eye, calmly) – Why are you so bent on our destruction if we mean so little? Why are you sacrificing so many Russian lives, if we are nothing?

Putin drops his face in his hand and rubs it slowly. He’s reached his limit. He looks up at Zelensky.

P – I’m giving you one last chance. You’ve been brainwashed by the west. I’m trying to help you. The future is ours… here in the east. And you can be part of it. America is dying and I can smell the stench. And so can China.
We are extending our reach all over the world, Africa, Latin America, the Middle East… they like us in those countries. America’s corruption is massive. They talk about freedom but it’s all bogus. They just care about themselves…
Z – And you care about Ukrainians?
P (angrily) – Do not interrupt me! This is my last offer. Surrender now or you’ll pay with your life!
Z – I do not believe a word you say. Sir, you are not a free man… you have never been one… for if you had, you wouldn’t have ordered your troops to come and slaughter us, you wouldn’t have asked young Russians to die because you felt threatened by having a democratic nation so close to you.
And I do believe the west has welcomed us to their side. I know it in my heart.
P – How naïve you are.
I am sad to say that there will be no more peace negotiations.
Ours is a fight to the death.
Z – It’s been that way from the start.
P- This is the last time we meet, Mr Zelensky, for you will pay with your life.
Z – You may pay with yours.
P (shaking his head, frustrated) – Still believing in those fairy tales about what the Americans and Europeans will do for you. Brainwashed you is what they’ve done.
Z – Perhaps, but remember, just as we’re having to bury our brothers and sisters fallen in combat, so will your soldiers be returning to Russia in body bags.
(and leaning forward on the desk)
History, sir, will be kinder to me than to you.
Good night.

They both rise and exit the room by separate entrances.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

Ukraine Can Win!

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What seemed unthinkable at the start of this war, is now gathering strength. The distinct possibility that Ukraine can push back Russia and win the war.
While Russia keeps lying to their people about the war, in the West, nations are coming together in support of the heroic behavior of the Ukrainian people.
Volodymyr Zelensky, their president, has been untiring in his efforts to reach out to others soliciting support for the war effort.
Russia, meanwhile, has seen many of their people leave the country and has now summoned the help of Syrian mercenaries to help with their invasion.
The widespread killing of civilians at the hands of Russian soldiers is now a daily occurrence.
None of which appears to disturb the mind of Putin.
But let us not be fooled. Putin is afraid. Afraid that his forces are weaker than he thought, afraid that his troops lack the will to persevere in the conquest of Ukraine, afraid that fellow Russians will revolt against him, afraid that his flawed belief system and the lies he’s used to fool his people are now being exposed.
How long can he keep up the farce?
Not long.


Meanwhile, the West is coming together in realizing the enormous benefits of a Ukrainian victory, i.e, a profound shift in the political alignment of the world.
Every effort we now make will make a difference.
Putin has begun to retreat and will likely become dependent on China, a nation showing its true colors in its aversion for democracy and the suppression of free speech.
Ukraine is on the vanguard of the contest between East and West.
In their determination to not bow to Russian oppression they have become a shining symbol of what needs to be done to defend our liberties, and as such deserve our full cooperation.
Their valor calls for all of us to make sacrifices in the defense and affirmation of our values.
Circumstances have thrust them into the center of a battle that had been fought more quietly.
Now it is fully in the open.
China is an ally of Russia. It is an enemy of America and the West. It wants to use whatever the West can offer to gain further power and then turn around and use it against us.
We, in the West, do not need China.
We will not lose the hope that the Chinese people can one day rise, just as Ukrainians are now doing, and defeat their oppressive leadership and the lies they now tell.
The Chinese leadership are no strangers to inflicting mass cruelty on their people, such as was carried out during the Cultural revolution under Mao Zedong in the 60s and is presently the case in their suppression of the Uyghur minority in Xinjiang province.
Ukraine is now the battleground for freedom in our world.
Let us support them with all we can.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.

Oh Germany!

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Oh, Germany!
How you disappoint.
Joining Viktor Orban in Hungary? Who famously said, ‘we don’t want diversity’. The implication being, we are pure!
What’s going on Germany?
You chronically underfund your military, as if you lived in Wonderland.
You grow dependent on Russia for your energy needs,
Year after year after year,
As if you had thought that the Russian bear had lost its claws,
That it had polished them off and now was a cuddly teddy bear.
Never mind Russia’s invasion of Georgia, their ruthless subjection of Chechnya, their annexing of Crimea, their massacring Syrians in support of murderous Assad.
And then you choose to be timid with helping Ukraine.
After sending them band aids and helmets and lotions,
You finally agree to sending some arms.
But you have not been forceful.


You listen to your business sector saying, ‘no, curtailing oil and gas imports from Russia will make things uncomfortable. We understand that sacrifices are honorable but the bottom line is king. We must not inconvenience ourselves too much. Token measures should suffice.’
Oh, ‘wisdom’ sometimes has a very bad odor.
I read that your perceived timidity is actually a calculation, that you do not want to harm your chances of mediating the conflict.
What nonsense!
Do you really think that Putin will pay attention to you?
Oh, sorry. Perhaps they will.
Since you’ve had Gerhard Schroeder planted there all along.
So there was method to your madness. Softening the bear. How farsighted of you. We should all learn from you.
Right. Tell that to the dead Ukrainians.
But you do sell weapons to other nations, like to Egypt, right? And is their ruler a great democrat? No. The man is a dictator. An oppressor of human beings.
Have you not lost your fondness for dictators? Do they still appeal in some way?
Oh Germany!
How would you like to be invaded and others not sacrificing for you?
You’re not alone in being seduced by Putin. He’s made friends in Italy, and Marine Le Pen, the presidential candidate in France has been an admirer.
But for some reason I thought you would be wiser.
And maybe you are and are holding back and will surprise us all. Please do so. I can’t wait.
I don’t know enough about your history to know if you’ve ever defended your land with the fierceness that Ukrainians are doing now, but you’ll agree they are setting an example for the rest of us. And for you, too.
I went to Berlin this last September. Had a wonderful time. Thank you.
I’m an American immigrant. My country is deeply flawed but we’re working on it. And it’s our president, who has stepped up and led the West in countering Putin’s aggression.
Please join us.

PS: The news this morning spoke of 39 Ukrainians killed by a Russian missile in the Donbas area.
Many were at a train station waiting to leave. Men, women and children.
I am sure Putin had his breakfast with no interruptions.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

Putin:’God is with Me!’

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He is in his bunker somewhere near Moscow. Various video monitors mounted on the wall are showing footage of the damage done by the attack of two Ukrainian helicopters on Belgorod, Russian territory located just north of Kharkiv.
‘They attacked Russian soil! How dare they!’
The video shows several oil tanks in flames.
‘Attacking my land, my sacred grounds!’
Putin trembles in his rage.
‘What happened to our air defenses? How was this possible? If they did it once, they will do it again!’
He is standing in front of his desk, looking in disbelief at the video of the attack being replayed.
‘Zelensky will pay for this. Once I capture him, because I will do that, I will put him on trial. And he will pay. The world will be clamoring for me to be merciful but I will not.’
Putin slams his fist on the table.
‘What the hell happened to my army? I’ve spent years and years building it up and now they don’t deliver. Who is responsible? I’m having to call up more and more men for military service. I’m having to ask Syrian fighters to join in to kill Ukrainians. I’m having to call up the Wagner group too.’
He shakes his head slowly as he looks down at the table.
‘It doesn’t look good… me… Vladimir Putin… asking Assad for help.’
He rubs his face.


‘Will I even conquer all of Ukraine? How can I live with myself with less than total control over it?’
He sits down, the mood despondent.
‘I was wrong… instead of riding victorious into Kyiv… instead of people calling my name in adoration… throwing flowers at my armored limousine, I’m now looking at the possibility of having to negotiate a peace treaty. With a comedian! Me, a great political leader! Oh, the irony of it all. What a twist of fate!’
He leans forward in his chair, clasping his hands, the anger palpable and a growing sense of self reproach.
‘It’s the fault of the Americans. Yes… Biden. Him. And I made too much of Trump… thinking that he represented America… thinking that he was the epitome of their decline… that the January 6th assault on the capitol was a clear sign they were rotten to the core… weak… morally dissolute… reveling in vice.’


He stands abruptly and walks a few paces then stops for a moment. Something is deeply wrong. He returns to his desk, presses a button on a console and images of him addressing a crowd of adoring fans at a stadium in Moscow appear on the screens.
The sight eases his tension as if hope had returned.
‘No. I’m okay. I’m all right. They still love me. God has not abandoned me. God is with me. And I will redouble my efforts. I will conquer all of Ukraine. And I will force the West to take my rubles for our oil.’
He laughs loudly, feeling victorious.
‘That was a great strategy of mine. How I made Europe dependent on our oil and gas. How I made them kneel for it. Brilliant.’


But his expression now turns somber.
‘Can I recover…? In the eyes of the world… can I redeem myself? In the eyes of China, can I, once again, look strong?’
He shakes his head slowly… in disbelief… as if acknowledging the loss.
‘Is this the beginning of my end… with the whole world watching? No… it can’t be.’
He reaches for the console and switches back on images of his troops and tanks riding into Ukraine on February 24th, the first day of the invasion.
He smiles with relief.
‘There it is… my power… Russia’s power… it’s not gone… I see it… the fullness of my power… everybody sees it… I know it’s still there… it’s not gone away… it’s there… yes… it’s not over… it can’t be… I still have a hand to play… Putin is not gone…’
But he hesitates. Doubtful.
‘If it’s gone… really gone… then… I can still… yes…’
He turns around, away from the cameras, hands clenched into fists.
‘America will not defeat me. They will not. We will both go down in flames… and just who will stop me?’

Oscar Valdes Oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.

The New Confidence of The West and The Need for Caution

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It took the Ukrainian invasion and the fierce resistance it has prompted, for the nations of Europe to stand firm with America against the barbarism of Putin. The Ukrainian people, long in the shadow of Russia, decided it had seen enough. It would not applaud the invading Russians but fight them. And fight them to the end.
That heroism has elicited a new vigor in the West.


The cruelty Putin has unleashed on the Ukrainian people will not go unpunished. It will not be forgotten.
The lies Putin has used to justify his actions will forever remind us of the lies all autocracies or dictatorships use to justify their oppression.
By virtue of the ubiquity of cameras the invasion and its consequences have been thoroughly documented, making it one of the most public wars. And that evidence will not be buried with the dead but forever stand to remind us of the price of freedom.
Putin, of course, has tried to hide all of it from his people. But his days are numbered.
The Russian people are now asking themselves, ‘is this violence not being inflicted on us too? By denying us freedom of speech and thought?’
And that stark reality will bring unease to their consciences and so move them to assert the fullness of their existences.


Sooner or later, Putin will fall. And it will be the Russian people who will bring him down.
He knows he is losing the war. He knows he has nowhere to go and hide. It is a matter of time before he is set aside by his own people.
China, meanwhile, has refused to condemn the invasion. But their leadership is accustomed to denying their own people their voice. What else could we expect from their autocrats?
The influx of weapons from the West has made a huge difference in the fierce Ukrainian resistance and so, too, the fact that the mighty Russian army has not been all that mighty.
Their advance has proven difficult and the likelihood is that it will need more and more resources to complete the conquest of Ukraine, raising the possibility that Russia will not have the capability of doing so.
A diminished Putin will be tempted to resort to chemical weapons and even nuclear ones.
This would escalate the war with uncertain consequences.


Earlier today, in Brussels for a meeting with NATO partners, a confident president Biden said that if Putin used chemical weapons against the Ukrainian people, NATO would respond.
Putin will likely challenge that position and use such weapons. The same way that Assad in Syria challenged president Obama’s drawing a red line intended to bar the weapons.
In our confidence, we must not forget caution.
Putin is a failed man but as long as his people don’t rebel against him, he can unleash horrible weapons.
So we must watch our language.
Putin has little to lose at this stage. But we do.
With this catastrophic performance, not only Ukraine but other nations now under his influence will turn toward the West. That, we can be confident about.
I say that Belarus is next.

Oscar Valdes, oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

The War and Increasing Venezuela’s Oil Production

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The Russian invasion of Ukraine has significantly altered the politics of oil worldwide.
With western sanctions being set to squeeze Russia, its price has jumped.
Now there’s an American willingness to lift sanctions on Venezuela’s main export product.
Mr Maduro, Venezuela’s dictator, ceased to be recognized by the US after his reelection in 2018 was deemed to be fraudulent by international observers.


In 2019, the Trump administration imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela’s oil production and Maduro turned to Russia, China and Iran for help selling it.
However, as a result of the continuing political repression, a large portion of the talent required to maintain the oil industry fled the country.
Oil production took a dive and the country is now extracting a fraction of the output in years past, which averaged 2.3 million barrels per day over the previous 50 years, and was down to an estimated 760,000 barrels in 2021.
All sectors of the economy in Venezuela have been deeply affected by Maduro’s policies and approximately 6 million people have emigrated to neighboring countries. The suffering he’s inflicted on his compatriots is enormous.


Sobered, perhaps, by the extent of his atrocities, or simply in his attempt to survive their repercussions, Mr Maduro, even before the Ukrainian tragedy, had signaled to the US that he was willing to do business in exchange for the lifting of their sanctions.
And so the Biden administration recently sent a delegation to Caracas to meet with Maduro’s representatives.

There are obstacles to overcome.
Venezuela, which had been defaulting on a $60 billion debt for the last few years, has now offered assets, including oil reserves, to restructure such debt.
But it will take time for Venezuela to increase production.
One such obstacle is that their oil producing infrastructure is in a state of disrepair and would require considerable outside investments over several years to get it back to working order.
On the plus side, American companies have shown an interest in investing, though they would want legal safeguards, a tough issue in a country with the lack of an independent judiciary.
We can also anticipate that there will be political opposition to a deal. As part of the sanctions imposed in 2019, control of Citgo, the US operating refining subsidiary owned by Venezuela, was transferred to representatives of the opposition. They will likely want assurances, such as Maduro agreeing to the release of political prisoners and to holding free elections in 2024.


Venezuela needs to get back to producing oil. Their oil is heavy in sulfur and high in emissions, so it is a major contributor to global warming, which limits its attractiveness to investors.
The world still needs oil but there is a rush to improve the technologies to make solar, wind and hydrogen power our main sources, and to accept nuclear power as a transitional source.
So time is running out for oil.


It is sad to see how a country as rich as Venezuela has wasted the opportunities it was given.
I am reminded of the distinguished Venezuelan writer and thinker, Arturo Uslar Pietri, who once said, ‘We have to sow our oil’. As in, let’s use this precious but finite resource, to diversify and grow other industries.
Venezuela has plenty of human talent.
Its politics, however, have wasted it.

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

Watching his Troops Run Over Ukraine

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He sits alone in his bunker, watching the bombing of Ukraine, rockets being fired, buildings being set on fire or demolished. He has just got news that his forces took over Chernobyl, north of Kyiv.
He does not yet know the number of dead, on either side.


The sanctions didn’t stop him from invading. Whatever additional ones the West promises to impose, won’t either.
Sure, some of his wealthy associates will be harmed by such restrictions but he will remind them that they owe him. That they are where they are because of him.He is having the time of his life, relishing being top of the news worldwide and being feared.
He is rich, but that brings him little solace. The acquisition of wealth is not what drives him.
Power is what moves him. And he’s living his grand moment.

For too long he’s been in the shadows of world leaders he considers his inferiors when it comes to drive and sheer ambition.
He’s had to live with the frustration of seeing other economies rise and rise, becoming the envy of the world. Apple, for instance, the American technology company, has a value greater than Russia’s entire economy. How did they do that?
He wishes he had been able to unleash the full creative potential of his fellow Russians.
But he didn’t. Somehow, he reflects, his concern with power, stood in the way.

On a clear night, when he looks up at the sky as he is fond of doing and sees the international space station orbiting the earth, he thinks of the Russian cosmonauts up there. And he reminds himself that it was two Russians and an American who first went up to that station. Years ago.
He knows he presides over a powerhouse of talent. Russians with great ability in many fields. And yet, economically, Russia is in the shadows of America and now China.
It is hard to stomach.

In his clearer moments, he recognizes that the world sees him as associated with brutality.
Supporting the vicious Assad in Syria, for instance. The Generals in Myanmar. The repressive government of Maduro in Venezuela. And associates of his, with his consent, of course, have mercenary troops spreading through Africa, aiding in the coercion and subjugation of hundreds of thousands of people.
All of that and yet, somehow, whatever the pain being inflicted, doesn’t keep him up at night.
He sleeps soundly.
How interesting the human mind, able to put things in separate spaces – boxes or compartments, call them what you wish – so that there is little spilling over between them.
Ah, but enough of that introspection.

He has invaded his beloved Ukraine because it belongs to him, belongs to Russia, and whatever the costs to be paid he will pay them.
His troops have acted quickly and decisively so there will be little chance for an armed resistance to make a difference.
He will put Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky in a plane and send him to Poland, or Moldova. Anywhere but keep him in Ukraine. Let him blah blah all he wants about Putin in exile, but he will not set foot in Ukraine ever again.

He is surprised that Biden had the gumption to rally Europeans to oppose him. He likes that about him. Feisty. But he’s always liked feisty people. And then being able to outwit and dominate them.
He pauses and swivels around in his chair. The mood pensive.

‘I grant that during my reign, I did not have the ability to free up the creativity and imagination of Russians… that’s just not me… but I did have the genius to develop a terrific armed force, to facilitate the development of an arms industry, and make Russians proud’.

He closes his eyes as he rubs his face softly.
‘Biden will not give in but neither will I. And I will drive my army all the way to the border with Romania, Moldova, Hungary and Poland. And scare the West… so Russians will be happy, like they were when we went into Crimea.
As to the sanctions, I’m not worried. We will find ways around them. China will help, of course. They know they need me. Though now and then I will have to remind them I have lots more nuclear warheads than they do.’
He laughs.

‘In America, Trump likes me. How interesting. Something about my charismatic personality. I never imagined that would happen. I love it, of course. And when the next elections come around, well, I’ll think of something. Anyway, whether Trump gets reelected or not, sooner or later, an American president will be chosen who doesn’t care about Ukraine, and the sanctions will be lifted. Europe may complain but without American support, they will slowly yield. It will be their excuse to appease me. And all their presidents, chancellors and prime ministers will come to Moscow to endear themselves to me, to buy my oil and gas and wheat and aluminum and nickel and palladium, for we have it all, and get back to business as usual.
But Ukraine will be mine.’

He leans over to the desk next to him and picks up a globe of the earth.
He looks at the area where Ukraine is drawn.
He taps on it and says, ‘how many men can boast that they redrew the boundaries of a country?’
And he laughs loudly.
‘I can see the title of an upcoming book by some writer, “Putin, the Conqueror”. Maybe even become a film.’
He laughs again.

Behind him, in the wall monitors facing his desk, Russian war planes fly over cities in Ukraine.

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.

What Use Will the Sanctions Be After they Bomb Us?

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Said Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, a few days ago.
He is right.
The West has announced sanctions on two major Russian banks and on Russian debt after Putin’s troops entered the Donetsk and Lugansk ‘new’ republics in the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine.

But the EU–US alliance is choosing to not announce what is to follow until the invader takes the next step.
To Putin, that smells of the West not being truly convinced of his intentions to take over the entire Ukraine.
The only firm deterrent to him would have been NATO’s troops on the ground, but since Ukraine is not a NATO member, that was never going to happen.

There is a clear difference in the motivations of the contending parties.
Putin has made up his mind to annex Ukraine.
The West, though committed to placing sanctions on him, is not quite clear on which ones to choose.
So Putin, who’s willing to dare and push his way through the entire country, East to West, North to South, is not deterred by them.

Regardless of Mr Biden’s firm efforts in addressing the crisis, Putin is calculating that the West’s lack of strong conviction owes to their needing to check with lots of nations to make sure no one member of the alliance is disproportionately burdened by any one sanction.
Putin, on the other hand, does not have to weigh any such considerations. He alone speaks for Russia, and therein lies his advantage.

It was a confidence booster for the West to hear that, upon starting the invasion, Germany had stepped up and stopped the certification of Nord Stream 2, the gas pipeline from Russia to their northern shore. But as Putin’s troops run over Ukraine, what else will they agree on?

Putin seems to have no interest in diplomacy.

‘What use will the sanctions be after they bomb us?’


Zelensky sees, quite clearly, that Ukraine matters more to Putin than to the West.
Placing sanctions on Russia will also have an economic cost to the West but it is Ukraine that will pay dearly once they end up a vassal state.
Ukrainians know this is their fight. They know it will be Ukrainian blood that will be spilled.
Western principles will be invoked and sanctions placed on Russia to support such principles, but in the end the great fight will be fought by Ukrainians. It will be their parents and children and brothers and sisters who will die in defense of their land, paying with their flesh and blood the price to have a destiny of their own.


Putin is no grand strategist but a clever and vicious thug. He can spot weakness in an adversary and do what he needs to suit his needs.
Today, he is bent on grabbing a nation, capturing a people, subjecting it to his will.
We don’t know what he will want tomorrow.
Letting him know in advance what the sanctions are may be more effective than announcing them after his assaults. And though sanctions alone, however severe, will not deter him, they will inflict harm, which combined with Ukrainians’ courage to fight may prove decisive.

Ukrainians know it us up to them to bear the greater cost of the struggle.
And that surrender is not an option.

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

Ukraine -Russia. Possible Outcomes

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 One. Russia launches a massive cyberattack followed by a full assault from the air, land and sea.They overwhelm the Ukrainian army and the population surrenders without a fight. President Zelensky and his cabinet are flown to Germany. Pockets of resistance are snuffed out with missile attacks.

Two. Russia launches a full attack but Ukrainians fight back and thousands are killed. The world watches in horror as Russian tanks roll over everything and planes bomb the population. Zelensky and the cabinet leave for Poland to form a government in exile. The West refrains from combat as planned and opens the borders of Poland, Hungary and Romania to war refugees.

Three. Russia attacks but Ukrainians resist with such force that they stop the attack. Huge quantities of weaponry are flown in from the West to support the effort. President Zelensky calls for volunteers from the rest of the world to aid in the resistance. A Brigade for Freedom in Ukraine is formed. The world denounces the enormous loss of life and property and a United Nations security council meeting is convened to sanction Russia but China vetoes the motion arguing that Russia is only defending itself from western threats. The fight roars on for weeks until a truce is agreed upon and Ukraine is officially divided between East and West. Kyiv will be in the West.

(China, meanwhile, speeds up preparations to invade Taiwan)

Four. Russia does nothing. They start to deescalate and blame the West for goading them into a fight. But they reinforce the dissident forces in the Donbas area and have them renew their push against the Ukrainian forces.

Five. Russia sends in special commandos in a nighttime raid that kidnaps president Zelensky and flies him to Minsk, setting up the stage for a Russia friendly president to take over.

Six. Errant missiles fired by Russia land in Poland and Hungary inflicting human and material destruction and causing western nations to ready for war in keeping with article 5 of the NATO charter. A nuclear confrontation looms. The stock market drops 2000 points in a single day as the world goes into a recession.

Seven. Putin is put under house arrest and a new leader emerges in Russia. To the public, he just caught Covid.

Oscar Valdes.  Oscarvaldes.net. anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.