Tag: europe

Why Putin Will go to War

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One. He clearly sees the divisiveness in the West. Germany is ‘uncomfortable’ providing weapons to Ukraine, supposedly because they started WWII and they have all that angst weighing on them. But it must not weigh on Germans that much because they sell arms to Egypt which is run by a dictator. Oh, but they did contribute 500 helmets to the alliance’s efforts. Terrific. Never mind that thousands of Ukrainians are about to die to satisfy Putin’s ambitions.

Two. Putin controls the supply of natural gas to Europe, and Europeans are loath to inconvenience themselves with shortages. Businesses will put all manner of pressure on politicians to quickly submit to the great Putin. All the while saying, ‘Why, he just wants Russians to have a little more space to stretch.’

Three. Putin is convinced the sanctions the West will impose when Russia invades will not last because of the above.

Four. Russia’s economy gets support from China who, for now, will buy enough of their energy supplies to bolster their invasion of the Ukraine. In today’s papers, a senior Chinese official came out urging America to ‘calm down.’ As in, don’t get too excited, it’s just the Ukraine. Surely the Chinese statement was prompted by Biden’s decision to send troops to the border with Russia. Of course, China is all in for their ally Putin, and eager to disrupt the US-EU alliance.

Five. Putin doesn’t give a damn. He has little regard for human life. Remember the Malasyia Airliner Flight 17 shot down on July 17th 2014 as it flew near the Ukrainian-Russian border on its way to Kuala Lumpur? It was brought down by a Buk missile fired by Ukrainian dissidents and supplied by Russia. A Dutch-Australian investigation put the blame squarely on Russia but they denied any involvement. 283 passengers and 15 crew members were killed.

The good news today is that Putin was disappointed by the written response to his requests provided 2 days ago by the US-EU alliance. Good. The West is maintaining a firm stance and that is a strong deterrent. Still, for the reasons above, Putin will invade anyway. It’s his gift to the Russian people. ‘We will reestablish dominance over territories formerly in the Soviet Union and push westward.’

So it’s Biden, the leader of the Free World, against Putin, the leader of the Un Free World.

(China doesn’t have as many nuclear warheads as Russia and the US but it’s working on it)

Oscar Valdes.   Oscarvaldes.net, apple and google podcasts and buzzsprout

Putin on the Verge

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He is alone in his private residence. He is standing by the window, looking out onto a beautiful forest covered with snow.

He has Ukraine surrounded by troops in the East, South East and in the north in Belarus. He knows the Ukrainians won’t be able to stop him, once he gives the order to invade.

He has enjoyed enormously being in the headlines, day after day, everyone talking about him. How will the world ever forget him? They cannot. He is now part of history. Forever. Immortal.

He rubs his chest lightly as he smiles.   

He looks back at his desk, and the phone on it. He needs only to reach over, pick it up and order that his troops march into Ukraine. Just that, no more than that, and thousands of lives will cease to exist. Unless, of course, they all fall to their knees and beg for mercy.

What a life he has lived. So privileged.

Thinking to himself, he says, there is something so special about having so much power over people. So much power over the hapless Europeans who start shaking the moment he talks about holding back his supply of gas to them.

And he smiles when he thinks of his power to deceive, to persuade, to pressure. What talent!

‘Yes, I want to rebuild the Soviet Union. I want to have Russia be the number one power in the world. And I have the guns, the supersonic missiles that can get to Washington in 5 minutes. I have them.’

‘Sure they will retaliate, but I’m convinced my weapons are better. My resolve greater. My willingness to destroy unmatched.’

‘I have been able to bully others all my life. No one, no one at all, has bullied me back.’

And now he thinks of how he has no trouble sleeping. None at all. He puts his head on the pillow and wakes up refreshed 8 hours later. What a gift.

‘How can a man have so much power?’ he says to himself.

His eyes brighten. ‘I convinced others to give theirs to me, that’s why,’ and he laughs.

‘I convinced them that I would be their shepherd.’ He laughs again.

‘I do worry that I’ve caused lasting damage to my fellow Russians… that my being in power so long has led to an atrophy of their will to be. I do worry. But I won’t live forever, so they’ll have other people govern them. Meanwhile, I will rule this land as I wish and die in power, like Stalin did. President for life. What a charmed life. People will write and write things about me, like some hapless blogger is surely doing just this moment, trying to imagine what goes through my unique mind. But they won’t come even close. There has never been anyone in the world like me. No one. And I will continue to sharpen my cyberwarriors to undermine my enemies. One after the other. They will get so good at it that I will decide elections in other countries.’

He turns around and takes a few steps to sit at his desk. His phone is within arm’s length.

‘I can pick up that phone right now, order the invasion, and all the world’s attention will be on me, on my next moves. Europe will tremble with fear. America will squirm, Xi Jinping worry about what I’ll do next.’

He crosses his legs and brings his hands together interlacing his fingers.

‘I can see the headlines all over the world… “Russia Invades the Ukraine. Troops within reach of Kyiv.” “The Russian leader speaks of Lebensraum. More living space for Russians.” “Germany and Europe Panic”

He laughs.

‘Oh, I’m a genius. Yes. And right now, other world leaders are simply envious of me. But they can’t stop me. They don’t know how. Worse, they won’t dare.’

He rubs his face.

‘I enjoy seeing the world scared of what I can do. What pleasure that gives me.’

‘Ha! And Russians will celebrate me. And I will destroy completely all those who’ve dared oppose me here in my land. I’ll simply get rid of them.’

‘This will be the century of Vladimir Putin. I am now 69 and will govern for another 31 years, and all the while the world will be in awe of my powers.’

‘And next will be Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland. And no one will stop me, no one has the guts to stop me.’

‘I can live with fear… yes… and know how to stare it down… but so few people can.’

He pauses, holding his hands locked in front of him.

‘It’s up to me… and only to me… I alone choose the fate of thousands of people… hundreds of thousands… millions…’

He reaches over to the phone but hesitates… and hangs his head for a moment.

Then, raising it slowly… eyes narrowed as he looks off… the expression determined… fearless,

he says, softly,

‘Do I invade today or tomorrow?’

Oscarvaldes.net.  also available on apple and google podcasts and buzzsprout