freedom – Page 7 – Oscar Valdes

Denial. The Power of It

Photo by Melanie Wupperman on Pexels.com

A while back, when working in a prison, I interviewed a young man who had arrived to serve a short sentence. At one point during our session I asked him about his parents and he said his father had died recently.
‘What happened?’
‘He had a heart attack.’
‘Had he been ill?’
‘No. He worked out all the time.’
‘Sorry to hear that. Did he go to the doctor?’
‘No, he didn’t.’
‘Why not?’
‘He didn’t see a need for it. He said he felt great.’
Pausing, he lowered his head for a moment. And I could sense the sadness in him as he reflected on the loss.
A couple of days ago I read an article in the Economist (6/11 edition) about the contest for the Senate in the state of Pennsylvania. John Fetterman, the state’s lieutenant governor and democratic candidate had suffered a stroke before the primary. It was later revealed by his campaign that he had a preexisting cardiomyopathy and though he was not feeling well, ‘he had been leery of seeing his doctor.’
Sad.
I once knew a man who was diabetic. He had been well controlled, was married and shared a bed with his wife. He knew he had to check his feet, which comes with being diabetic. But he didn’t. Then one day he discovered an area that had not been getting enough circulation. It was too late. He had to have the leg amputated below the knee.
And then there are the lucky ones. I read an article in a newspaper a year ago or so (WSJ or NYT) describing an incident at a hockey game. One of the coaches had a lesion in the back of his neck. In the audience sat a woman who had been trained to spot such lesions. She worked at a health care facility. From where she sat she saw the lesion in the man’s neck and got to wondering, does he know he has what he has?
She approached him at intermission and got his attention. Was he aware of the lesion?
What lesion?
So she took a look at it on the spot and said to him he needed to have himself checked right away.
He did. It was a melanoma, a deadly skin cancer.
The likelihood is he did know he had it and didn’t think much of it. But he got lucky.
Denial – the refusal to admit a truth or reality (Merriam-Webster’s) is a powerful force yet easily ignored, until it’s too late.
It is present in all areas of life, health, work, politics, finances etc. and requires the awareness that it exists to counter it. We’re all vulnerable to experience it and have already.
Last year, at Surfside, in Miami, Fla. a condominium building collapsed. People knew there were problems with the building but chose to ignore them. ‘Too costly,’ thought many – maybe they will go away. Of course. Until it was too late.
In politics – the European Union believed they could keep relying on Putin and Russia for their energy needs. No, the great Russian leader would never slaughter a neighbor country, they told themselves. Until he did.
As we speak, there still are those, even in high ranking posts, who say it will all blow off.
There are a lot of bright people in that European Union, but denial gets everyone. Unless you’re on your game.
Of course, there are just so many things we can give our attention to. But if the matter is deemed important yet must be deferred, let’s make a note of it. So it won’t go away.
Because the mind can trick us. All of us. Smart and not so smart.
Again and again.

Oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

Mr Biden. Sell us the Story of Ukraine. Now

Photo by Kostiantyn Stupak on Pexels.com

Yes, sell it to the American public. Sell it now. In this century there is no story as compelling as theirs.
Take the bull by the horns. Do not underestimate the capacity of the American public.
Maybe diehard isolationists will blow you off, but the majority will not. When they go to the pump and see the high price tag, they just might think, ‘we’re doing it for Ukraine. A sister nation that is being massacred, not just pushed around, but massacred by Vladimir Putin, the man you rightly called ‘a killer, a war criminal’. No other leader had the guts to call Putin that. You did.
So, please, concentrate your efforts. We need you now more than ever.
Putin has been trying to scare us with the threat of a nuclear war. We cannot afford to be scared into inaction. Cannot afford to let his threat of firing his nuclear weapons keep us from arming Ukraine with the best weapons we have.
You have placed the restriction of not sending in American troops. I agree with that.
But Ukrainians urgently need to have war planes to stop the wholesale destruction Putin is inflicting on their people and push Russians back and out of their land.
A while ago Poland stepped up and offered to give Ukrainians Mig jets, aircraft Ukrainians are familiar with and so could put to use right away.
Poland was right. The Polish people have distinguished themselves for the enormous assistance they have provided in the war effort. Unlike Germany or Hungary.
The story of Ukraine is unique. Sell it to us, Mr Biden.
There are no assurances Ukraine, even with all the war planes we give them, will beat back Russia, but they will put up a fight unlike anything we’ve seen.
So let us help them now.
Giving Ukraine war planes will anger Putin. He will cry out loud that he has weapons he can fire at us. But so do we. He is not crazy. He and Russia has everything to lose in this confrontation but so far, he has got the upper hand because he has made us fearful.
There is no room for that.
Arm Ukraine fully, Mr Biden. Do it now. We will not regret it.
Ukraine is not a distant nation anymore. With the blood they have poured on the battlefield they have become one of us.
Mr Biden, go in front of the cameras and tell us their story. Again and again. If you are fearing that inflation is going to beat the democratic party in November, think of Ukraine’s story and their possible victory as providing the momentum to help democrats win instead.
Stand up for Ukraine fully and the American people can put the inflation woes in context.
You have the courage.
This is a unique opportunity to shine, Mr Biden. Do not let it pass. You will regret it dearly if you do.
By the way. I think it was Putin who came up with the idea that if we helped Ukraine, we would be seen as co combatants. So be it. We should not let that stop us.
As far as your upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia is concerned, I understand that you’re doing it in the interest of our nation benefitting from their oil producing capacities. But as our representative, please do not bow to them.
Not only do they not deserve it but bowing is a bad habit to get into. We should bow to no one. King, Queen, God, Pope, whatever.
We are a creative and industrious people who are not afraid of hard work.
Trust us. We are behind you. Lead us.

Good luck

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.

Putin on Intimidation and Biden

A group of high ranking officials and generals have gathered in an ample room below ground in a bunker in Moscow. Seated in rows and files they face Putin at the front, who addresses them.

Putin – After a slow start, owing to a few mistakes we made, we are now winning the war in Ukraine.

His audience gives a warm applause.

Putin – And we are winning because we have used intimidation successfully.

Nods and murmurs of approval from the audience.

Putin – Intimidation requires persistence. And so I keep reminding the West that we have nuclear weapons… I say so again and again… implying that I’m willing to fire them… at any moment… and so abruptly end their decadent lives.
Americans and the West compare themselves with our country and say, ‘Russia is much less wealthy than we are. We have more to lose than they do.’
Exactly. And so I keep repeating, ‘We have nuclear weapons.’
It’s working.
We have been sanctioned economically, which hurts, but we still manage to exploit the cracks in the system and sell our oil and other resources. China and India have been most cooperative and so our coffers are full. In consequence, we have been able to lower our interest rates.
True, we are dependent on the West for parts for some industries, including the military, but the black market will continue to help us counter the sanctions, at least for a while, which gives us time to push for the complete occupation of Ukraine.

Warm applause.

Putin – The defeat we are about to inflict on America will be decisive. We are slowly degrading their morale, exposing the fact that they cannot present a united front consistently. Germany’s indecisiveness keeps undermining the alliance and so with our friends the Hungarians. Meanwhile, Macron of France keeps doing a masterful job of reminding his partners that I should not be humiliated, that I have feelings.

Laughter from the audience.

Putin – And Erdogan, in Turkey, manages to brilliantly obstruct Finland’s and Sweden’s decision to join NATO. A very nice vacation spot Turkey is, so thank you Mr Erdogan, for not joining in the sanctions against us.

Applause.

Putin – There is significant isolationist sentiment in America, which helps our case. We will keep using our sophisticated cyber operations to foster that sentiment. Lots of Republicans are saying, ‘no more help for Ukraine.’ Good.
Slowly then, with the help of American isolationists, we will neutralize their resolve to support Ukraine.
We’re almost there.
Notice how I’ve been able to keep the West from providing warplanes to Ukraine. Poland had the right idea when they pushed to hand over their Mig jets, but the coalition balked. I was staring them in the eye with my message ‘I have nuclear weapons,’ and the subtext ‘and willing to use them’, when they blinked. So they turned down Poland’s offer.
Instead of shortening the war with the war planes, they have prolonged it.
My bet that the West’s indecisiveness would give us Ukraine, was correct. For they keep thinking, ‘We have so much more than them’.
I have been pleasantly surprised to see how effective our strategy has been. Though I was confident of our eventual victory, I did not anticipate the tremendous impact I would cause on inflation and the world markets.
I love seeing how the market indices keep dropping and dropping, how they overreact to inflation concerns, a mark of their lack of conviction in their government and in themselves.
But it is the result of my clear strategy. I knew I could scare them into inaction and I have.
I do not know if giving Ukrainians war planes would have been decisive, or could be decisive, but fierce Ukrainians, defending their land with the right weapons, would likely have made a difference. They could have forced us out of their territory.
Would I have been humiliated by such action? Don’t know. But I would’ve been reluctant to commit most of my air force to blunt it, for it would have left me too exposed.
I am as impressed as the rest of the world with the bravery and resolve of the Ukrainian people and have to admit that I misjudged Zelensky. He’s a far stronger leader than I thought.
But the momentum is now in our favor.
The West had an opportunity to seize the moment and it didn’t.
And so the totality of Ukraine will be conquered.

Applause.

Putin – I do worry, that the tenacious spirit of Ukrainians might lead to a resistance movement, a form of guerrilla response which could be bloody and lasting. I worry because if it keeps killing our soldiers it may become too costly.
Before I take questions, I’d like to make a comment on Biden and Afghanistan.
The prevailing opinion has been that Biden’s decision to leave Afghanistan influenced my decision to take over Ukraine. That is not correct. In my view, Biden did the right thing. He cut his losses. That was a never ending war. Pakistan would have continued to support the Taliban making an American victory impossible. The question is, why did it take them so long to get out?
My decision to invade Ukraine was due to my conviction, that the isolationist sentiment Mr Trump had stirred, along with America’s growing internal acrimony, would be long lasting. I was right.
Biden’s pulling out of Afghanistan had nothing to do with it.
In fact, Biden’s resolve has surprised me. He has shown tremendous commitment to the cause of the unification of the West and the defense of Ukraine. But the economic upheaval the war has caused has diminished his influence.
Still, this is not yet over.
Biden could, against all critics, decide to agree to give Ukrainians the war planes they need.
He could still make the choice to challenge me.
He’s a risk taker. Will the rest of America allow him to do so, I’m not sure.
Although I didn’t like it, he publicly called me a ‘killer’ and a ‘war criminal’.
How would I respond to a challenge of his, I don’t know, but this I can say, though we don’t have as much as the West does, we do have something. Russia has something. And we don’t want to lose it.
Questions?
Official (standing up) – Mr President… what do you think of America’s Right to Bear Arms, their second amendment?
Putin – It wouldn’t happen here, I can say that…

Laughter from the audience.

Putin – … I just read that, on average, there’s a school shooting in America every month.
And they can’t agree on how to stop them. They’re bleeding to death. Advantage Russia.
Next question?

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.net, anchor.fm, buzzprout, apple and google podcasts

Mr Biden -We’re Losing the War in Ukraine

With the advantage in numbers and equipment Russians have, Ukraine, in spite of their tremendous fighting spirit, will be slowly beaten back by Russia.
Unless we step up and give them what they need.
Imagine looking at the map and seeing Ukraine under Russia’s control?
How can we live with that?
The Ukrainian people, dying by the hundreds every day that passes, keep calling for more assistance, and telling us ‘we will do the dying but give us a chance, give us your weapons.’
Zelensky has been consistent in his plea, ‘we need more weapons.’
Putin, meanwhile, a smile on his face, watches on and tells us, ‘don’t dare confront me because I have the nuclear weapons.’
But confronting him is exactly what must be done.
Dear Mr Biden, you have witnessed poor decision making before. As vicepresident, you were close to the decision making when Obama chose to give Putin a pass in 2008 in Georgia, disguising the move as a ‘reset.’
You were close to the decision making when in 2014 Putin took over Crimea and Obama did nothing.
You were close to the decision making when, in 2015, Obama drew a red line in Syria on the use of chemical weapons and Assad promptly crossed the line without repercussions.
In each of those instances standing up to the adversary was what was needed.
Because it didn’t happen then, we now have what we have today.
You have done an exemplary job in pulling together diverse players to form a united front. You have had to contend with Germany’s repeated weakness, Hungary’s outright collaboration with Putin, Macron’s recurring calls to not ‘humiliate’ Putin, as if a man guilty of massacring thousands of Ukrainians deserved such gentility.
And yet you persisted.
But more than 110 days after the war started, a general malaise has gripped the world.
There is the downward spiraling of the economy, the prospect of food scarcities and world hunger, the rising price of energy. Yet another dimension in the malaise is most troubling. Day in and day out a bully holds forth on the world’s pulpit, going on about the great weapons he can fire and how he can keep getting away with massacring a nation.
This repeated behavior, Putin’s daily intimidation, is having a disastrous effect on our morale for it is profoundly disheartening that a tyrant has such control over the world, regardless of the sanctions imposed on him.
Every day his troops continue to kill more and more people in Ukraine, taking more and more territory, and every day he’s getting away with it.
China, in another instance of poor judgment of its leadership, has embraced the role of full accomplice to the tyrant of Moscow.
But will confronting Putin lead to a nuclear war?
I don’t think so, for China would be quick to remind Putin – if they haven’t already – that if he tried such an attack, then the West would retaliate against China, too.
Right now Putin sees fear in our eyes so he keeps repeating his threat.
He’s betting that we’ll think we have more to lose than he has.
But I say that if we don’t confront our fear and challenge him, such inaction will undermine our resolve and position as a force for freedom in the world.
We didn’t win World War II because we gave in to fear.
And so here, today.
By virtue of their profound courage, Ukraine has vaulted itself to a position of prominence among the nations of the world. They have become one of us.
Committing to giving Ukraine the warplanes they need to make it a fair fight with Russia is essential.
Stand fully with Ukraine today and tomorrow the world will stand by any nation which is being subjugated by any tyrant.
Ukraine is, thus, opening a new standard for cooperation with nations in distress.
Why should we not act when a nation like Myanmar is massacred by their military?
Why should dictatorships like Russia’s and China’s hold veto power in the UN’s Security Council?
Ukraine’s plight and example is a call to the conscience of the world to act on behalf of the bullied.
A new world order dawns.
A well armed Ukraine, with warplanes at its disposal, may still lose to Russia. But the world will know that it wasn’t because they didn’t have the weapons.
It wasn’t because America, and the West, did not dare Putin.
Confront him now and the malaise we’re living in will lift, certain as the world will be, that America and the West answers a challenge.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

Turkey, NATO and Biden

A recent article in the WSJ coauthored by former senator Joe Liebermann, addressed the matter. Here I add my thoughts.
Recep Erdogan, Turkey’s president, has been in power for years but could not get his nation into the European Union. His governing style has not measured up to their standards. But now that Finland and Sweden have asked to be part of NATO, he has become the one party in the entire organization to block the two nations’ desires.
Erdogan has not applied the sanctions against Russia most of the EU – except for Hungary – have enforced. Yet he likes to see himself as a mediator that could deliver the deal that will put an end to the war.
He won’t.
As an autocrat, convinced that he should reign in Turkey until his death, he shares much with Putin. So he has no clue as to what freedom is.
He was useful to the EU in stemming the flow of Syrian refugees at the start of that nation’s civil war and got paid for it. Yet, now and then, he threatens to open the borders and let everyone through. Which puts the burden on the EU to find better solutions.
One of Erdogan’s objections to Finland and Sweden’s bid to join NATO, is that there are Kurdish terrorist groups in both countries who are enemies of his regime.
That is a good point. Why should any NATO nation host any terrorist group against another member nation?
But does Erdogan and Turkey bear responsibility for creating the conditions that led to the formation of such groups?
Turkey has a troubled history dealing with adversaries. At the start of WWI they killed thousands of Armenians, which president Biden, in 2021, on the 106th anniversary of the massacre, pronounced a genocide.
The Kurds have been American allies in the war against ISIS in Syria, and that must be recognized.
Still, support for any terrorist organization is a bad idea.
Erdogan not only wants the Kurdish groups in Finland and Sweden expelled, but also wants to be allowed to buy American planes, a deal that has been held back because a few years ago, against NATO’s wishes, Turkey purchased a Russian missile system which raised concerns that sensitive information from the aircraft would end up in Russia’s hands.
In spite of all of this, Turkey’s membership in NATO has continued.
But now the invasion of Ukraine and the strong response of the West has changed everything.
Erdogan never imagined that Biden and Europe would pull together into a solid bloc, except for Hungary.
Russia’s atrocious invasion and disregard for human life have created a new power alignment.
Finland and Sweden want to join it, but Turkey says no unless their conditions are met.
However, in this new power alignment, as in any other, priorities are needed. And while Turkey’s concern about terrorist groups deserves full attention, it should not be enough to block Finland and Sweden’s admission.
Turkey’s history of silencing the opposition is not compatible with a democracy. Thus, I agree with the view that it should not have the privilege of barring democracies from joining and expanding NATO.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

Putin’s Nightmare

He woke up, startled. The windowless room was dark.
His girlfriend who’d stayed with him the evening before didn’t spend the night because she had some matters to address early the next morning.
At first he didn’t remember anything that had disturbed his sleep but he knew something had.
His body was sweaty and he didn’t feel right.
He swung his legs off the bed, turned on the lamp on the nightstand and stood up.
He checked the time. It was 2:50 AM. Which meant he’d slept about three hours.
He crossed to the table at the center of the room and sat down.
Leaning forward, he put his face in his hands. Whatever it was that was disturbing him, would soon come back. That’s how it was with him. Upon awakening he wouldn’t remember his dreams but after a short while some trace of them would come back and then he would be able to reconstruct it.
Now he thought of America. Next the sanctions they had been imposing on him. Then of Zelensky. And it hit him. He had lost Ukraine.
He shuddered. He straightened up in his chair and put his arms around himself.
‘Fuckers!’ ‘Goddamn fuckers!’ He said loudly.
Ukrainian forces had killed 12 of his generals. They were using intelligence from the West to find and kill them. ‘Bastards!’
He had never, not even once, imagined that Ukrainians would have it in them to fight as they had. Not just to fight but to raise the hope that they might push back the mighty Russian army. The mighty force he’d used to threaten the world.
Now Finland was thinking of joining NATO.
Sweden might follow.
‘Assholes!’
Worst of all was that he had lost the respect of the West.
He’d talked of his nuclear arms, always threatening with firing them… and now the West wasn’t scared anymore. They had gone from the wary and respectful, ‘we don’t want to use the weapons because it will be Armageddon’, to the impudent ‘screw you, Putin, if you use them, we’ll use them. We’re on to you, sucker! We won’t put up with your intimidation and bullying behavior. We’re fed up with it!’
‘Bastards!’
And nowhere was it more evident than in their invigorated push to arm Ukraine.
The turning point had been Ukraine’s pluck. It was their moxie, their determination, that had convinced the West that they were worth betting on, that they could be used to get to him, because that’s all what it was, getting to him. All the talk about freedom was bullshit. All they wanted was to unseat him, so they could get some puppet of their own in power and so expand their markets. That’s all it was.
He sat up in his chair. He didn’t like losing.
And yet… maybe… Ukrainians were really fighting for their freedom and he had not got it. He was so used to intimidating his fellow Russians that he thought he could intimidate everyone.
And why not? He had got away with intimidating Donald Trump, the American president. It had been a subtle job but he had done it. He was proud of it.
But then this two bit Senator from Delaware came in to mess up his plans. A nothing senator from a nothing state who had been Obama’s vice president only because Obama needed a white face to persuade Americans that the institution of the White House wasn’t going to the dogs.
And where the hell did Biden get his gumption? To call, him – Vladimir Putin – a killer on national television. To accuse him of being a war criminal. To have the confidence to rally a divided Europe. To convince Germany to give up its neutral stance. Was that really Biden, or was it some cabal of billionaires telling him what to do?
‘Fuck them all!’
He shook his head disconsolately as he felt very sad.
He was losing Ukraine… Ukraine… a dear part of the great Russia… losing it to the West.
His eyes moistened and he felt like crying.
He had had his mind set on conquering the whole of Ukraine. Annexing Crimea in 2014 had been the start. Followed by his support of the separatists in the Donbas area and in Transnistria in Moldova. And now he was in danger of losing it all. And everything had begun with Zelensky. Which reminded him, he had to talk to Lavrov, his foreign minister. That hadn’t been wise, to call Zelensky a Hitler. A Nazi, yes, that was part of the plan, but a Hitler? It was too much.
He was feeling a little better now. Thinking about things had helped.
All was not lost… not yet. He could still… if he really wanted… use tactical nuclear weapons… drop them on Kyiv… wipe out 100,000 residents, including Zelensky and company. Xi Jinping in China would understand. And so would Narendra Modi in India. Retaining power calls for drastic actions.
He was not stepping down, that was certain.
He had Russians by the throat. He liked it that way.
But the movement to go to the West had to stop.
Belarus would not be next. It would not. If Lukashenko couldn’t hold the fort, then he’d invade Belarus and squash the resistance, do whatever he had to do.
And he now worried that as the bodies of dead Russians returned home from Ukraine, the support of the people would start to weaken.
He didn’t know how the war would end. But whereas before he had been unwilling to compromise, now he was. Still, he needed to show something for his effort… for all those generals and soldiers killed… all those tanks and planes and equipment destroyed. But he had to show something.
Unless he chose to nuke Kyiv.
But where in the world could he go after that?
And what would the West do in retaliation?
He rubbed his face and paused. Then, as he opened his eyes slowly, he saw in his mind’s eye an image of Kyiv after being rebuilt by the West. And the city looked so modern and resplendent. And then he saw a new Mariupol, a new Kherson, Kharkiv, Irpin… all brilliantly redone, because the West wanted to shame him, to entice the rest of his Russia to turn away from him.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.

Zelensky, Trump and Biden

It wasn’t that long ago that Trump, while president, was suspected of putting pressure on Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s leader, to provide information on Biden’s son Hunter, who had held a senior position in a Ukrainian energy company. Trump was suspected of dangling before Zelensky, the promise of arms shipments, so Ukraine could hold off the better armed Russian separatists in the Donbas area – a fight being waged since Putin’s first invasion of Ukraine in 2014, when he annexed Crimea.
The matter led to the first impeachment of Trump.
Trump had feared, correctly, that Biden would end up being his adversary in the 2020 elections and he wanted something he could hold against him.
It wasn’t long ago either, that in a television show, Biden was asked by the host, ‘Do you think Putin is a killer?’ And Biden answered, ‘He’s a killer.’
Contrast that response with the one Trump gave to a reporter on July 16th 2018, in Helsinki, Finland, when asked about Russian interference in the US elections in 2016.
Reporter Jonathan Lemire asked, ‘Every US intelligence has concluded that Russia did (interfere). Who do you believe? Would you now, with the whole world watching, tell president Putin… would you denounce what happened in 2016, and would you warn him to never do it again.’
To which Trump answered, as Putin stood a few feet away behind another lectern,
‘My people came to me, Dan Coats came to me and others, they said they think it’s Russia… I have president Putin… he just said it’s not Russia. I will say this… I don’t see any reason why it would be… I have confidence in both parties… I have great confidence in my intelligence people… but I will tell you that president Putin was extremely strong in his denial today.’
(Questions and answers as reported by the New York Times and The Washington Post)
Ah, yes, the beauty of previously recorded statements. You can’t hide from them.
So much has happened since then, and so much has made clear that Trump didn’t have a clue as to who Putin is.
Putin played him.
The majority of the American people saw the dysfunction, and in November 2020, chose Biden as president by a comfortable majority. It took Democrats and enlightened Republicans to put Biden in the White House.
But Trump still couldn’t believe it, so he egged on his faithful into the abhorrent assault on the Capitol on Jan 6th 2021, and on democracy itself, claiming the election had been stolen from him.
It led to a second impeachment, which also failed, given the slavish followers he still keeps in Congress.
In a short period of time, Volodymyr Zelensky has become an admired world figure while Trump’s image has tarnished and is fast eroding. And yet he still has Senators and Representatives begging for his endorsement.
But where would we be if Trump had been reelected?
Putin would have invaded Ukraine and taken it over completely. Putin might have had the audacity to invite Trump to his coronation in Kyiv.
There would have been no strong American leadership to unite the West in opposing Putin and
no arms shipments would have flowed to the Ukrainian resistance.
Fox News would have carried on about how far away those people are, and that Russia needs their sphere of influence, and what business is it of ours, anyway.
Brave Ukraine would still have resisted but they would have been slaughtered.
China would have nodded in approval and accelerated their plans to invade Taiwan, since it had become clear that America had lost its nerve.
And the world would not be what it is today.
Knowledge of character matters. Clear eyed leadership matters. Building alliances make a difference.
Because Biden and his team, saw through Putin, he was not fooled by the Russian.
His leadership of the West is now ushering in a new era.
Ukraine’s heroic resistance, with the support of the West, have exposed Russia’s military flaws.
The prospect of Russia’s defeat in this war is now more likely than ever.
Ukraine will be rebuilt, become a sterling example of democracy and a member of the EU and NATO.
Russians will have to reexamine why they supported a despot for as long as they did.
And yet, here at home, despite Biden’s extraordinary triumph in the world arena, the democratic party is expected to lose the mid term elections this November. Go figure.
Inflation and immigration are touted as the main reasons.
Republicans are rushing to blame inflation on Biden, saying that the covid assistance he provided was too large and arguing that inflation will not be tamed anytime soon.
I disagree. Inflation was inevitable, considering the dimensions of the pandemic. And I don’t think it will dampen growth significantly or for as long as others predict.
Meanwhile, our status in the world has jumped and with that comes an economic boost.
As to immigration, it has been a recurring issue in our nation. Its benefits are clear to most of us. Keeping ourselves open to the world is essential. The task ahead is to empower Americans who feel they’re being left behind. And the only way to do that is to motivate and assist them in becoming more productive and to earn more.
The war in Europe will likely be over by the end of the year if not before and I’m betting the West will win.
It will be a great triumph.
Biden and the democrats need to sell it to the voters because it is a remarkable accomplishment.
The fact that the majority in the Republican party continues to praise Donald Trump, is a sign of how destructive blind following is.
Holding on to the House and Senate in November is still possible.
And Biden and the democrats deserve a victory.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

Mariupol. Alive in Their Tomb

The video they posted is sad and alarming. Under a dim light, a group of children looked straight into the camera, and spoke of how they wanted to see the sunshine again. Their eyes wide open – their expression signaling quiet resignation – they pled for help without saying the word.
Some have been trapped under the steel plant of the port city for six weeks while Russian bombs keep falling on the structure. Their living space is likely to crumble any moment, burying them all.
Russian forces in control of the city have demanded their surrender but the trapped Ukrainians fear for their lives if they fall into their hands. Instead, they have asked the world to help create a human corridor to allow them to exit to a third party country.
A mother spoke of how they were running out of food, the despair evident in her voice, and one could feel the weight of her regret. Why had she sought shelter there, instead of elsewhere? Why had she led her family into what is becoming their tomb.
The UN’s general secretary has advocated for the human corridor but there they remain.
I suppose Putin may be waiting to extract some concession for sparing their lives.
And if he doesn’t, then those men, women and children, defiant till the end, will be buried alive, a testament to a man’s cruelty.
How was it that Russians gave so much power to a man?
Gradually. Day after day. Slowly.
You can read this but not that, came the instruction. You can see this but not that, said the next. And fear slipped in making it easier to praise than to criticize.

Soon enough, a government official comes knocking on the door. ‘We need your son and your daughter.’
‘Why?’ said their mother.
‘We have a special military operation to Ukraine. Fighting for the good of Russia.’
And the woman’s heart cringes. ‘For the good of Russia?’
‘Yes.’
‘What will they be doing?’
‘Building a greater Russia.’
‘Will they come back?’ asks the mother, the plaintive tone already in her voice.
‘Hard to say at this time. But the decadent West is supporting a Nazi government in Ukraine and we have to make sacrifices.’
‘Who says so?’
‘Putin.’
‘Could he be wrong?’
‘No. Putin is never wrong.’
‘I used to have friends in Ukraine…’ laments the woman.
‘Where?’ asks the government official.
‘In Mariupol, by the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. Lovely place.’
‘It is no more, madam… the city has been destroyed.’
‘Why?’
‘It was filled with fascists, financed by the West, plotting to harm us.’
‘They had a big steel plant, right by the water…’
‘It is no more.’
‘Sorry to hear that,’ says the woman as she looks off.
‘Where are your son and daughter?’
‘They went out on an errand. They will be back later this afternoon.’
The official takes a card out of his pocket and hands it to the woman.
‘Tell them to call me as soon as they get back.’
‘I will.’
The official gives the woman a hard look. ‘I need to hear from them today.’
‘Of course.’
‘It’s a direct order from Putin.’
‘I understand.’
‘You will be punished if they don’t call me.’
‘I will make sure they call you. I’ll dial the phone myself.’
The official narrows his eyes, now suspicious of the woman.
‘Do not fail. This is your patriotic duty.’
‘Indeed.’
The official steps back, turns to go out the door as he glances back over his shoulder.

Hours later, both son and daughter return. Their mother relates the details of the official’s visit.
The son and daughter, both eligible for serving in the armed forces, look at each other.
‘Mother,’ starts the daughter, ‘We have seen videos of what’s happening in Ukraine.’
Her mother looks back at her, suspecting the worst.
‘It’s horrible. We cannot go there. We should leave.’
‘Leave the country?’
‘Yes.’
‘Where will you go?’
‘You remember Olga?’
‘The dentist?’
‘Yes. She’s now living in St Petersburg. I called her. She told us she can take us near the border with Finland… and from there we can take our chances.’
‘It will be dangerous.’
‘We know, mother.’
‘You’re all I have.’
‘We’ll be fine.’
‘When will you be leaving?’
‘Right now.’
Mother lowers her head as her eyes grow misty. Then she looks up at them again.
‘I wonder… if I had spoken up earlier…’
They sit next to her, one on each side, and put their arms around her.
‘We shall return,’ says her son, reassuringly.
And both son and daughter smile at her.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

China. The Failed Project. Musk.

In the early 1970’s, with the Nixon-Kissinger overture to China, we opened the doors for them to break out of their isolation and offer their markets.
Our interest was economical but political, too, for a friendlier China would help counter the then Soviet menace.
Money began to pour into China and, by virtue of their tenacity and industry, the nation now stands as an economic superpower.
We expected their political maturation to follow. It did not. And that has been the great disappointment for the West.
Whereas Japan, after fiercely fighting the West during WWII, turned around and rebuilt itself as both an economic superpower and a democracy, China instead avoided political growth and settled for remaining a dictatorship.
That has been their choice. The influence of Mao Ze Dong runs deep.
China’s economic rise has been fueled by enormous investment from the West. The Chinese have worked with and improved on it, so they deserve credit. But they also should acknowledge that they have stolen much intellectual property from the rest of the world.
Not only have they not acknowledged it, but to this day their efforts to steal more information are rampant, i.e., through cyberattacks.
When there is an imbalance between the political and economic development of a nation, or even of an individual, there is reason to worry.
And so it has come as no great surprise that China has chosen to side with Russia in their cruelty toward Ukrainians.
The Chinese have been doing the same thing with the Uyghurs in Xinjiang province. And they did it, too, with Hongkongers.
All that economic investment did not modify their political disposition to repress and brutalize.
The Chinese people have no freedom of speech and are constantly being monitored by the State, which is afraid of what freedom of thought can ignite.
I have no doubt, they want to spread their system to the rest of the world. If it’s working for us, why shouldn’t it work for others.
So what are western business interests in China to do about all this?
Do they ignore the political side of China and concentrate only on business?
They cannot. And they cannot because the profits from their businesses are helping support a repressive regime, a regime that is set on invading Taiwan and killing whoever stands in their way to accomplish their goal.
To the extent that western business interests in China continue to fuel their growth, to that extent they are accomplices in the rise of China’s military and their dreams of world conquest.

Enter Elon Musk, Tesla and Twitter.
Mr Musk has praised China. The Tesla factory in Shanghai is the company’s largest. China’s customers buy the greatest number of Tesla vehicles.
So far, China has been friendly to him. And why not? He’s a symbol of the businessman they want. Pliant. Someone who will applaud them, regardless of their political record. And, of course, the Chinese government will make some concessions. There has to be a bait.
The political record of a nation matters. If not today, then tomorrow. But it matters.
Mr Musk has now bought Twitter. From what I read, Twitter has gone to great lengths to stop access to their platforms by governments and extreme factions pushing their agenda. There is an Integrity Team at work in keeping the messaging clear of such meddling, including from bots.
Mr Musk talks of promoting free speech, anyone can say anything and if you have a better argument you will prevail in the end. But Twitter insiders, familiar with the subtlety of messaging, warn us of how crafty those pushing their agenda can be.
Judging by Musk’s record in China, I have no doubt that sooner or later, Chinese influencers will work their way into Twitter with whatever they wish to say.
‘No, there is no genocide in Xinjiang. We love Uyghurs. All those reports you have read are false.’ Alongside a photo of an Uyghur hugging and kissing an ethnic Chinese.
Little by little and before you know it, people will be saying, ‘well, if they committed genocide, maybe it was just a little. Not a lot’.
For all of Mr Musk’s talents, he will not control China’s influencers. Instead, they will control him. And he won’t even know it.
‘We want you to sell more Teslas in China. We love Tesla. Now here is something we need…”
And Mr Musk will say, ‘Only that?’
‘Only that,’ the Chinese official will reply, with a sly smile.
China’s record is clear. Standing in support of Russia in Ukraine makes it an accomplice.
To think that we can talk the Chinese government out of their style is madness.
It will be up to the Chinese people to revolt and affirm themselves. That is their developmental task as a nation.
As for us, we should start to pull out of China. We can do it. China isolated itself from the world for centuries. And the rest of the world still prospered.
Growing dependence on them is a bad idea.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

God Talks to Putin

Photo by u0410u043bu0435u043au0441u0430u043du0434u0440 u041fu0440u043eu043au043eu0444u044cu0435u0432 on Pexels.com

He’s sitting in his bunker, facing a row of telephones and a wall covered with TV monitors showing scenes of his troops’ movements and the devastation of the war.
But he is restless. The war is not going the way he wanted.
Now all lights go off and the windowless room turns pitch black.
He is startled. This has never happened before.
He presses the emergency button to call for help but there’s no response.
Is he under attack?
He gets up, cautiously, and finds his way to the door.
It’s locked.
Furious, he calls out for assistance as he turns the knob, repeatedly, but nothing gives.
‘I have to be calm,’ he says to himself. ‘Where’s my gun?’
In the darkness, he moves slowly back in the direction of his desk and after a moment reaches it.
He opens a drawer to his right and finds the gun.
He takes it out and lays it on the desk.
‘The power should come back any moment,’ he tells himself.
Now the faint glimmer of a light appears behind him. He quickly turns around and points the gun at it.
The light emanates from a small golden colored orb that dims and brightens as it grows in size.
Putin holds the gun with both his hands, aiming it directly at the orb.
‘Stop!’ he cries out.
But the orb keeps enlarging slowly, while dimming and brightening.
Putin fires a shot directly into it. The orb is not altered.
‘Vladimir…’ says the orb with a soft, gentle voice.
Putin is frightened.
‘Why are you killing?’
Putin fires again, to no avail.
‘Men, women and children who have done nothing to you…’
Putin fires another round.
Now the luminous orb starts to rise slowly, suspended in the air.
Putin quickly gets out of his chair and goes under his desk, the gun pointed at the orb.
The orb advances slightly and Putin fires another round.
But nothing stops the orb.
Panicking, he fires off the rest of his bullets, and when there are no more rounds he tries to get out from under the desk but finds that he cannot. Something is blocking him. Something he cannot see.
The orb advances as it enlarges its size, the golden light dimming and brightening.
Then the orb stops.
‘Why, Vladimir?’ asks the orb.
‘They were threatening me, they were threatening Russia!’
‘No, they were not… you made that up… made that up to build yourself up… build yourself up because your country has been failing.’
‘We are not failing!’ cries out Putin in desperation as he tries to free himself from something invisible that is keeping him pinned under the desk.
‘Yes, you are. Sadly, what you’re best at is making guns, weapons, rockets… to kill people… don’t you think Russians are much better than that?’
‘Yes, we are! This is all part of a plan to rebuild the great Russian empire. This is the first step to then conquer the world!’
‘You mean to destroy the world…’ answers the orb, ‘because all you leave in your path is death and destruction, Vladimir, nothing else.’
‘Who are you?’ asks Putin, crouched under his desk.
‘Who do you think I am?’ replies the orb.
‘My conscience?’
‘I am God, Vladimir.’
Putin laughs, derisively. ‘God, you say, what hogwash.’
‘I get that all the time…’ returns the orb.
‘Prove it to me!’ cries an emboldened Putin.
‘I don’t play those games but suffice it to say you’re not going anywhere until I say so.’
Putin tries again to free himself from the invisible binds holding him under the desk but cannot.
‘Fuck you!’ shouts Putin.
The orb says nothing for a moment, then, ‘there’s nothing musical about that word… try something else…’
‘If you were really God, then why did you let the war happen? Why did you let all those people get killed?’
‘Good point,’ says the orb. ‘I’m not all powerful as some believe… I can’t stop human beings from killing each other… but what I can do, is remind everyone that hope and kindness are the only way forward… for that is the fountain of our creativity… of human beings’ capacity to improve the world.’
‘Hogwash!’ says, Putin. ‘You’re an impostor. I don’t know what tricks you’re using but I’ll figure it out and deal with you.’
‘Vladimir…’ starts the orb patiently…
‘President Putin to you! Blasphemer! Idiot!’
‘Vladimir…’ trying again… ‘I have come to help you. You’ve already made yourself an outcast… your cruelty has already branded you…’
‘You can’t send me to hell?’ responds Putin, mockingly.
‘You are in hell, already… because that’s what Ukraine is now, a living hell that you created.’
‘Get out! I don’t want to talk to you! Charlatan!’
‘I come…’ resumes the orb, patiently, ‘because you are losing the war and may want to use nuclear weapons. That’s why I’m here. Please listen to me… the world will not let you use nuclear or chemical weapons on Ukrainians without responding. And between America and Europe, they have enough to wipe you out.’
‘Ha! I have my rockets pointed at Washington and London and Los Angeles and Houston and Dallas and New York. I’ll obliterate them! I may not destroy everything but I’ll get most of it. And that’ll be enough for me.’
‘You think you’ll survive?’
‘I don’t care.’
‘That’s a lot of cities, you mentioned… but they’ll fire back and aim directly at Moscow and St Petersburg… so there’ll be nothing left. And if you survive, what will you tell your followers, as they stand in rags before you, burnt from radioactivity? You’ll tell them that’s the first step to building the new Russian empire? Vladimir, they’ll grab you and cut you into little pieces.’
‘At least I’ll have the satisfaction that I destroyed the West. And I will have opened the path for China to be number one in the world.’
‘Small consolation for a man who wanted to build the Russian empire. I hear a desperate man, envious of the West and afraid…’ says the orb, patiently.
Putin again tries to free himself but cannot. ‘Let me out!’
‘Settle down, you little prick!’ snaps the orb impatiently.
Putin laughs. ‘You’re not God.’
‘I lose my temper, too. Now listen to me, there’s still a way out for you. And you can save your skin. Your wounded pride you’ll have to lick for the rest of your life but you can at least, live.’
‘Which way out?’ says Putin, showing interest.
‘Walk away.’
Putin is silent.
‘Admit your mistake and walk away.’
‘And give up Ukraine?’
‘It was never yours. They don’t want you there.’
‘What about Crimea, the new republics in Donbas?’
‘Let them decide their fate democratically, with the vote.’
‘I’ll never do that,’ says Putin as he looks away, shaking his head, glumly.

Silence follows.

Putin again, ‘You think Russians will forgive me?’
‘Yes… if you stop making mistakes. Sanctions will be lifted and you’ll have another try at building a nation.’
‘I think I’ve gone too far, already.’
‘The mothers of those soldiers who return alive will be forever grateful.’
‘I’ll still get a chance to go to Heaven?’ asks Putin.
The orb thinks about it for a moment. ‘Vladimir… I’ve been God for a while now, and I still can’t find where Heaven is. I think it’s right here on earth. It’s here every day of our lives… you see it in human beings’ kindness, generosity, eternal hope… and undying quest for excellence.’
‘And hell?’
‘Right here, too. In illness, violence, poverty… in innocent people serving sentences in prison… and what you’re doing in Ukraine.’
Putin, dejected, shaking his head slowly. ‘You think I fucked up?’
‘You did. But really big men recognize their flaws.’

The orb and Putin look at each other for a moment.

‘I’ve said my piece… you’re free to go now,’ says the orb.

Putin finds he’s no longer bound and is able to get out from under the desk. He stands facing the orb.

‘Do I get to see you again?’ asks Putin.
‘You never know,’ replies the orb.
And then it disappears.
The lights in the room come up and all the equipment is back working.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.