Putin – Page 6 – Oscar Valdes

To Have a Center

To have a center as a person, is to be doing something you enjoy, and that something makes you feel stronger and wiser.
Having a center lets you manage your envy, accept that others have more than you do, if they do, and you don’t get rattled by it. You can say to yourself, ‘I have my power, they have theirs.’
If you perceive that you could be doing better at what you enjoy, then you double up on your efforts.
That’s where ambition kicks in, a topic for another day.
We can tolerate periods when we are not doing what we would most like to do, but the search for what is most desirable for us to do shouldn’t stop.
A sense of reality is essential to temper expectations.
If you want to be a famous anything and you’re not even working in that field, then that’s daydreaming.
If you want to be in music and you don’t have a good ear, then that’s a tough hurdle to overcome. I suppose you could write songs.
If you want to be an engineer or physicist, you have to be good at math.
If you want to be a carpenter, you have to have good manual dexterity.
So how do we discover what we enjoy?
Sounds like a silly question but it’s important to ask.
It takes freedom to follow your intuitions. Freedom and courage.
Here’s where the task of parenting comes in. Providing such freedom. The courage part is up to you.
Some years ago I had a dentist who had excellent manual dexterity. I noticed it right away and commented on it. There was a grace and fluidity to his movements. He’d always known it but hadn’t owned it. At university, he had been chosen to do demonstration videos, such was his skill.
He went on to do other things in life for many years, until it became clear that what he most wanted to do was work with his hands exclusively. So one day he chose to quit dentistry and become a carpenter. It had been a hobby of his but now he wanted to do it full time.
‘That’s what I want to do,’ he said to me with proud assurance. He was probably in his late 50s or early 60s by then, but he still had time. All those years he had been searching for his center and finally had found it.
I asked him if his father, who had been a dentist also, had ever commented on his excellent manual dexterity. He answered that the man had not. Which points up one of the essential tasks of parenting, identifying in their children what seems their most obvious talent.
It doesn’t take a whole lot. All the parent has to do is pay attention to their child as he or she unfolds.
The child may not know they have a talent. It takes an observant parent or interested adult to point it out. In doing so they validate it.
Not long ago, another person I know commented on one of her children’s career choice. She added that she thought he’d do well because he was strong in math. In this instance, that critical interaction had taken place. The parent had conveyed to the child, ‘You have that. I see it. It’s up to you to do what you wish with it, but it’s there for you.’
Of course, there are instances when the talent of the child is so clear that it’s apparent to all.
But those are the exceptions.
Having a sense that one has a center is critical in daily interactions.
There are lots of people in this world without a sense of purpose, drifting here and there, doing what they can to make ends meet, but not animated by a focus in life.
Those are grounds for apathy, resentment and envy.
Without a focus in life managing envy becomes harder to do and managing envy in life is a fundamental task.
With a sense that one has a center, one is more tolerant of imperfections, our own and that of others. It leads to patience and kindness.
When two people are attracted to each other, one may have a center and the other not.
But centeredness cannot just be transferred, it is acquired by each individual.
What a centered lover in a relationship with a not centered partner can do, is say, ‘this is what I perceive your gifts to be.’ And it’s up to the person to accept the feedback, work with it or not.
But it is important to do so, for, in a couple, the non centered party will tend to suffer the most when a breakup occurs.
And now to politics.
Are there politicians more centered than others? Of course.
Compare Trump and Biden.
Since I don’t know them personally I can only judge them by their actions.
Trump is not a centered person whereas Biden is.
Why is Trump not a centered person? Because he cannot manage his envy.
From this distant point, I ask, is Putin a centered man?
He can’t be. A man so committed to depriving others of their freedom cannot be a centered man.
His actions are motivated by envy.
That is a central driving force in his invasion of Ukraine.
Putin has not been able to lead Russia’s transformation into a first rate nation even though the country clearly has such capability.
A free Ukraine would stand as a model for Russians to emulate, like West Germany was to East Germany after WWII, and the yearnings for freedom that would flourish from such contrast, would lead to the further fragmentation of what we today call Russia.
Putin could not handle that.

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Finally, the Warplanes

It was with much relief that I read the news yesterday that the West had decided to finally send warplanes to Ukraine. It has been a long wait.
And it will be a turning point in the war.
America is setting up to train Ukrainian pilots to operate F-15 or F-16 fighter jets. And while it will take some months for the aircraft to be put to use, the decision has all the markings of a game changing choice.
The underlying thinking is what I find most relevant. And that is the willingness to confront Putin. To not be cowed by his threats of using nuclear weapons.
For the longest, the West had hesitated to provide much needed warplanes fearing a nuclear escalation would follow. But no more.
The battle for Ukraine has become a defining moment for the West.
Not only is NATO in the process of expanding its membership (Finland and Sweden) as a result of Russia’s invasion, but a new resolve has been created.
Putin may boast that he has got around some of the sanctions imposed on him and may be dreaming of the pain he can still inflict by restricting gas supplies to Europe come winter, but it has become evident that his choice of massacring Ukrainians was a disaster.
Ukrainians’ blood and endless sacrifices, Zelensky’s steady and inspiring leadership, both have been critical in the new conviction that Russia can be defeated and pushed back to their own border.
All the nations that have banded together to oppose Putin and aid Ukrainians, deserve great credit for such courageous stance.
As an American, I thank president Biden for his strong leadership and commitment to uniting the West.
Inflation was an inevitable consequence of the war effort, and yet there are signs that this, too, will be manageable and the West will endure and thrive.
By contrast, Putin’s fate is sealed. He will forever be no more than a small man with grandiose ambitions who chose to ravage a neighbor nation.
History will not forgive him.
It will be up to Russians to depose him and I have no doubt they will.
He stands in the way of their political and economic development. Stands in the way of their cultural and technological growth. Whereas this was evident well before the war, the war has made it blatantly clear.
Russia cannot realize its possibilities with a man like Putin as their leader.
It is hard to say how Putin will be removed from office but I have no doubt that forward thinking Russians have given the matter serious thought.
I predict that Vladimir Putin will fall soon, perhaps even before the end of the year.
By contrast, Volodymyr Zelensky’s star will continue to rise, as will his commitment to rebuilding Ukraine into a first rate nation, a shining example of what political and moral courage are able to create.

Oscar Valdes, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.

9/20/22 Note: I wrote this article based on information that had appeared in the NY Times or the WSJ the day before (7/26/22). Yesterday, in the WSJ, and again today, I read that the US has no immediate plans to send war planes (F-15s of F-16s) to Ukraine. Something changed. Perhaps it is the concern that Putin will see it as an intolerable escalation on the part of the West. Thank you.

To Be Russian Today

The spotlight is on Russians.
Why did they allow a man like Putin to gather so much personal power?
Why did Russians give up their own power, giving it instead to Putin to do as he wishes?
Because they did, Putin went on unchecked, dreaming of recreating the Soviet Union.
And Ukraine has been ravaged with devastating brutality.
Russian foes of Putin’s rule have existed all along. Some have died, others are in prison, like Alexei Navalny.
A nation of great vitality, of considerable talent and inventiveness, has succumbed to a vulgar leader, a small man with dreams of ruling the world.
But Putin is not Russia.
And the rest of us need to be very clear about that.
To be Russian today is to admit that, as a people, they failed to summon the political courage needed to stop Putin’s rise to power.
To be Russian today is to admit that political courage is a priceless quality, and that without it freedom is not possible.
To be Russian today is to remind the world that without such courage life is diminished, and men like Putin will use the opportunity for their own aggrandizement.
To be Russian today is to admit that there is a critical time to dissent, and that means confronting the fear of reprisals.
To be Russian today is to remind us all that such fear exists in every one of us and that it must be confronted.
The fate of humanity depends on many things: hard work, inventiveness, compassion and the acknowledgment that every single one of us has something to contribute.
But without political courage, without the power to dissent, vulgar men will seek to dominate others by brute force.
Without political courage, all of humanity’s achievements can be destroyed.
The devastation in Ukraine today is happening because all of us, not just Russians, failed to object to the rise of a tyrant.
To be Russian today is to remind us that we’re all vulnerable to succumb to fear, and that standing up to it is a priceless quality upon which the survival of the planet depends.
The massacre in Ukraine, like the subjugation of any people anywhere, is a call to the rest of us to affirm our humanity and give assistance to all who are being forced to be silent.
Here in America, the forces of darkness elevated Trump, and he responded by trying to overturn his electoral defeat.
So we, too, like Russians, have failed to exercise our political courage.
The power to dissent is the road to freedom. And freedom the only path to the realization of humanity’s endless possibilities.
To be Russian today is to be anyone of us.

Oscar Valdes, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

This is the Moment to Act

Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve Bank raised the nation’s interest rate by .75 bps. Forecast had it that the figure would be either 0.5 or 0.75.
Markets went up after the news but today lost all the gains and are back down to where they were before the announcement.
To the extent that financial markets anticipate the state of the economy, the news is not good. We’re heading downhill.
The Federal Reserve may have been too aggressive, particularly since the markets had been heading down steadily. The bank’s chairman, Jerome Powell, had talked of a soft landing as he raised rates but instead gave in to the hawkish wing of the bank that pushed for the 0.75 hike.
Now think of how different things could be if we were winning the war instead?
Vastly different.
Optimism would fuel the markets and we would feel much more positive about being able to prevent a recession.
If only we were doing what we should be doing.
Macron, Scholz and Draghi (from France, Germany and Italy) met today with Zelensky, Ukraine’s president.
The public statements of the officials are all for supporting Ukraine’s fight for independence, but what happens behind close doors is likely very different.
For one, neither Germany nor France have delivered the heavy equipment Zelensky has called for.
Instead they are likely pushing for Zelensky to settle. To negotiate with Russia, to agree to terms.
Both Macron and Scholz would love to see themselves as the grand negotiators that brought the warring parties to the table. They may be already dreaming of the Nobel prize they’d be sharing for bringing peace to the region.
Zelensky should not give in.
Macron and Scholz are telling Zelensky, ‘look, inflation is hurting us badly. We have done enough. You need to think of compromising. We can’t get all we want in life, so give in a little.’
Zelensky should not give in.
The real problem with inflation is the war.
Russia has been able to circumvent the sanctions and managed to sell a good deal of its oil. They are filled with cash and confident that they’ll keep finding ways to do so.
Today I read that Russia has now cut back further on their gas supplies to Europe. The squeeze is on.
So why isn’t Zelensky and Ukraine getting all the help they need?
Because many nations in the western bloc are chickening out.
Surely there are real life obstacles to delivering the heavy equipment needed but if you’re dragging your feet then you’re chickening out. Then you’re saying, ‘Putin is really scary, he’s out of control, he just might target us. Oh, no. What will we do if that happens?’
The real problem with today’s inflation is the war.
Yes, it has to end, but not without first giving Ukraine all they need to fight back and that should include war planes.
Otherwise Ukraine should not negotiate with a killer who has butchered their nation.
Mr Biden, I’m not letting you off the hook.
I’m sure you were told in detail of Macron, Scholz and Draghi’s mission. Do not be a party to that weaklings’ effort.
Step up, do not back down now.
You’ve been courageous until now, but this is not over and not the time to call it quits.
This is a unique moment in our history, indeed, the world’s history.
We can’t let the bully win.
Ukraine wants to fight till the end. How often do you hear that from a nation?
Ukrainians who left are returning to their land in the middle of the war. It takes guts to do that.
If you do not fully back Ukraine you will lose your presidency. Period. But back Ukraine with all they need and your standing will be exceptional.
Damn it, make the difficult choice! You’ve been there before. Don’t join with the appeasers.
See, even if Ukraine doesn’t beat back Russia, if they get all the equipment they need they would have fought an exceptional battle. We haven’t seen anything like this since WWII.
It is your turn to shine, Mr Biden. Take the chance. Don’t back down.
Putin can be beat. He will not trigger WWIII. He won’t because he’s not crazy and has a lot to lose. But he’s good at scaring people and has been getting away with it.
Don’t let him scare you, too.
He’s already got Macron and Scholz in his back pocket.
This is your moment, Mr Biden, win or lose, this is your moment. Don’t flinch. Go forward.

Oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.

The War. The Economy. Our Psyches

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The war has had a profound effect on inflation.
One is the obvious impact that sanctions on Russia have had on the energy markets with shortages raising prices everywhere.
Another is the lingering supply chains snarls generated by the pandemic, now worsened by the conflict.
And then there’s the enormous effect on our psyches. The corrosive effect of seeing the count of dead people grow, buildings destroyed, lives wrecked.
When will it end?
How much more pain will be inflicted?
Now we are beginning to suspect Russia will not be pushed back and out of Ukraine.
We are beginning to suspect that Russia will subdue and demolish it. With impunity and the whole world watching.
If Putin wins, we will have to worry about his future behavior and how it emboldens China’s quest for dominance.
Putin may be tempted to invade another country. Tiny Moldova, for instance, sitting on the southwest border with Ukraine, where Russian separatists already occupy the Transnistria region.
How long will the sanctions against Russia be kept?
The cumulative effect of these factors is not only weighing on markets but on our minds.
Central banks are raising interest rates. Companies’ forecast for earnings are decreasing while the price of stocks plummet and plummet.
Uncertainty and more uncertainty.
Can anything be done about it? Or do we watch impotently?
There is something unsettling about feeling a lack of control.
We were recovering from the pandemic, which we knew would be difficult anyway,
and then Putin chose to start his war. And his war became everybody’s war.
Nations have taken sides and the world has divided into two camps.
The United Nations has become an impotent body. Russia, the grand aggressor, holds veto power in the Security Council, as does China, rendering that distinguished body ineffective.
With energy prices rising and rising, the possibility of a recession grows greater and so does the chance of a depression.
But can anything be done to change the present course of events?
We have two options before us.
In one, we do nothing. And Putin wins, the world cements its divisions and the economy goes into a long slowdown.
In the other, we fight back. We challenge Putin. And we do it now.
Public figures like Henry Kissinger and Emmanuelle Macron have come forward in favor of accommodation, Kissinger stating that there’s a role for Russia (a role depriving others of their freedom?) and Macron saying that we have to learn to live with Russia (why?).
But those statements sound weak when a nation like Ukraine is willing to offer its people in battle, when they have already sacrificed thousands upon thousands of men and women, for the sake of their freedom from the Russian boot.
They cry of the Ukrainian people keeps piercing our minds, the pain of their agony keeps intruding into our daily lives, ‘Help us,’ they cry, ‘Give us the weapons to defend ourselves!’
And we have, to some extent.
But not enough.
The war has changed our minds and hearts since it started on February 24th.
Back then we didn’t know how courageous a nation could be.
Ukraine’s is a lesson for the entire world.
Short of nuclear weapons, they have earned the right to get all the assistance the West can provide.
They have earned it with their blood.
Macron of France, was quoted as saying that it would take years and years, maybe 15 for Ukraine to become part of NATO. How wrong can that man be?
There are just so many Ukrainians to die in defense of their land, of their right to be free.
We in the West, those willing to do so, need to do all we can to assist them now.
History will record which nations chose not to help, but that’s for them and their conscience to settle. For now, it’s those willing to go all out that need to step forward and make a full commitment to the freedom of Ukraine.
And that means a willingness to challenge Putin.
If Ukraine falls even though they got all the help we could give them, so be it.
But our consciences will be at peace, that in the hour of need, we didn’t cringe or surrender to our fears, but stepped front and gave our full support to a courageous people.
Ukraine’s fight is telling the world, ‘this is what is needed to step up and say We are Free’ while Russians and Chinese, and the rest of the subjugated people in our world, watch with admiration, envy and remorse.
This is the time to go all out for Ukraine.
Or we’ll have to live with the regret of not supporting those who deserve it.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

Mr Biden -We’re Losing the War in Ukraine

With the advantage in numbers and equipment Russians have, Ukraine, in spite of their tremendous fighting spirit, will be slowly beaten back by Russia.
Unless we step up and give them what they need.
Imagine looking at the map and seeing Ukraine under Russia’s control?
How can we live with that?
The Ukrainian people, dying by the hundreds every day that passes, keep calling for more assistance, and telling us ‘we will do the dying but give us a chance, give us your weapons.’
Zelensky has been consistent in his plea, ‘we need more weapons.’
Putin, meanwhile, a smile on his face, watches on and tells us, ‘don’t dare confront me because I have the nuclear weapons.’
But confronting him is exactly what must be done.
Dear Mr Biden, you have witnessed poor decision making before. As vicepresident, you were close to the decision making when Obama chose to give Putin a pass in 2008 in Georgia, disguising the move as a ‘reset.’
You were close to the decision making when in 2014 Putin took over Crimea and Obama did nothing.
You were close to the decision making when, in 2015, Obama drew a red line in Syria on the use of chemical weapons and Assad promptly crossed the line without repercussions.
In each of those instances standing up to the adversary was what was needed.
Because it didn’t happen then, we now have what we have today.
You have done an exemplary job in pulling together diverse players to form a united front. You have had to contend with Germany’s repeated weakness, Hungary’s outright collaboration with Putin, Macron’s recurring calls to not ‘humiliate’ Putin, as if a man guilty of massacring thousands of Ukrainians deserved such gentility.
And yet you persisted.
But more than 110 days after the war started, a general malaise has gripped the world.
There is the downward spiraling of the economy, the prospect of food scarcities and world hunger, the rising price of energy. Yet another dimension in the malaise is most troubling. Day in and day out a bully holds forth on the world’s pulpit, going on about the great weapons he can fire and how he can keep getting away with massacring a nation.
This repeated behavior, Putin’s daily intimidation, is having a disastrous effect on our morale for it is profoundly disheartening that a tyrant has such control over the world, regardless of the sanctions imposed on him.
Every day his troops continue to kill more and more people in Ukraine, taking more and more territory, and every day he’s getting away with it.
China, in another instance of poor judgment of its leadership, has embraced the role of full accomplice to the tyrant of Moscow.
But will confronting Putin lead to a nuclear war?
I don’t think so, for China would be quick to remind Putin – if they haven’t already – that if he tried such an attack, then the West would retaliate against China, too.
Right now Putin sees fear in our eyes so he keeps repeating his threat.
He’s betting that we’ll think we have more to lose than he has.
But I say that if we don’t confront our fear and challenge him, such inaction will undermine our resolve and position as a force for freedom in the world.
We didn’t win World War II because we gave in to fear.
And so here, today.
By virtue of their profound courage, Ukraine has vaulted itself to a position of prominence among the nations of the world. They have become one of us.
Committing to giving Ukraine the warplanes they need to make it a fair fight with Russia is essential.
Stand fully with Ukraine today and tomorrow the world will stand by any nation which is being subjugated by any tyrant.
Ukraine is, thus, opening a new standard for cooperation with nations in distress.
Why should we not act when a nation like Myanmar is massacred by their military?
Why should dictatorships like Russia’s and China’s hold veto power in the UN’s Security Council?
Ukraine’s plight and example is a call to the conscience of the world to act on behalf of the bullied.
A new world order dawns.
A well armed Ukraine, with warplanes at its disposal, may still lose to Russia. But the world will know that it wasn’t because they didn’t have the weapons.
It wasn’t because America, and the West, did not dare Putin.
Confront him now and the malaise we’re living in will lift, certain as the world will be, that America and the West answers a challenge.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

Where Biden and I Differ

As citizen of a democracy – a remarkable notion conceived and bequeathed to humanity by Athenians – I have the option of publicly differing with my President which I will proceed to do.
Russians wished they had not let such privilege be stolen from them by Putin. Had they not allowed it we wouldn’t be having this war.
But to the point.
The war in Ukraine has been hard fought. Ukrainians have been exemplary fighters, and yet the greater number of Russian soldiers and armament give them the advantage.
Slowly, I fear, the Ukrainian resistance will begin to wear down.
Though the West has provided much equipment to counter the Russian offensive, it is not enough to stop the invaders.
Mr Biden has been very clear with the American people. He does not approve of any attack on Russia, will not place any American soldiers or NATO troops on Ukraine and strictly forbids that weapons given to Ukraine be fired into Russian territory – the land Russia now occupies in eastern Ukraine exempted.
Ukraine is dependent on the West for weaponry. If we don’t provide them, regardless of their courage in combat, over time they will be overrun and quashed by Russian forces.
But can we move a step further and provide Ukraine with parity in armaments? Can we give them enough to not only hold against the Russians but beat them back and out of their nation?
After three months of uninterrupted warfare, the struggle is entering a period of fatigue.
Ukrainians have excellent leadership but that may not be enough.
Our main worry – Biden’s worry – about weapons assistance to Ukraine is that Putin will consider such assistance to be an escalation on the part of the West. And so providing Ukraine with war planes has been forbidden.
Putin has repeatedly reminded us of his nuclear arsenal and how he is willing to use it.
All along his calculation has been that Ukraine is more important to him than to the West and that sooner or later we will tire out and Ukraine will be asked to be reasonable and urged to negotiate with him.
In fact, those forces are already at work.
But we would be making a huge mistake to give in and accommodate with Putin.
True, there is the risk of a nuclear confrontation, though I believe it is much less than at the start of the war. The reason is that Putin has discovered western resolve which he did not expect and realizes he has as much or more to lose from a nuclear war than we do.
China will be the first to tell him not to dare go down that path because they don’t want to be a target of a western response.
So now is the time to step up the lethality and reach of the weapons we provide to Ukraine. Now is the time to provide them with fighter jets.
I am sure there is a way to make sure those jets don’t go over into Russian territory. But with such weapons, the direction of this war can be turned around.
Ukraine, with enough weapons, can beat back Russia. We should let them do so.
If Putin is humiliated by the defeat of his forces, good. He deserves it.
We should not give less arms to Ukrainians to ensure Putin can save face and say to his people, ‘well, we did gain some territory. As to the rest of Ukraine, let’s pause for now and invade again next year.’
Now is the time to let Ukraine win.
Putin should not.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

Dear Mr Macron

I hear that you’ve proposed negotiations with Putin to end the war. And that a guiding principle in your approach is that what solution is proposed be devoid of any sense of ‘humiliation’ for Russia.
Very considerate of you. Worrying about Putin’s feelings.
Given that he conceived and ordered the atrocities now going on in Ukraine. The massive destruction of property and infrastructure, the killing of men, women and children.
All because he felt threatened by a neighbor nation’s desire for freedom, something he will not offer to his own people. It’s just too threatening for him to see fellow Russians aspiring to such lofty state.
But just how are we to deal with a brute like Putin impersonating the president of a nation?
If he signed an agreement to cease hostilities, should we trust his word?
No.
And why should we?
He invented that Ukraine is run by Nazis to justify the invasion, not that he needed an excuse. Just wanting to have his foot on Ukrainians’ throats was a good enough reason for him.
Oh, the virtues of having silenced his opponents. Dissident Alexei Navalny’s sentence just got extended and it is a safe bet that he will never go free so long as Putin is around.
But Putin has talents. Chiefly among them the talent to deceive.
He deceived the EU collectively, having said, ‘you can trust me on the energy supplies, I will always be there for you, so long – which he didn’t say out loud – so long as I’m allowed to do as I please’.
And the EU’s leadership bowed deeply, with much relief.
Understanding what happened to the EU’s leadership in dealing with Russia should be a top subject for discussion at centers that analyze international power relations. How was it that all those talented people failed to see the evidence?
Even a capable politician like you, at one point brought up the notion of ‘Finlandization’ for Ukraine. Echoes of WWII and after. Peace with the Russian bear in exchange for letting them have influence over Ukraine’s internal affairs. You caught flak for such proposal and quickly gave it up but the fact is you thought enough of the option to raise it.
I’m sure you’re wiser now.
Eventually the war will end yet Putin will not ask for forgiveness, will not apologize, will not acknowledge that he was ever in the wrong and forever believe, that those who sought to soften him up are weaklings. That is who he is. He simply does not get that freedom facilitates the development of our minds and spirits. He has not yet killed as many people as Stalin did but he is cut from the same cloth. Why should a man like that be exonerated in any way for the cruelties he’s inflicted?
Eventually, Russians will wake up. We all are hoping they do so sooner than later, but however long it takes, the wait will be well worth it if they come to realize how they lost their way, and how it took Ukraine to light up the path.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

Ukraine Needs Fighter Jets

Russian troops in the eastern section of Ukraine continue to push to encircle Ukraine’s forces.
Should it happen, Ukraine would lose a significant portion of its army.
I read that the leaders of France and Germany, Macron and Scholz, have spoken to Putin and that he’s shown interest in peace talks.
But to think that the Russian would cede the territory he’s earned is sheer denial of the facts.
With such a deal he could turn to his people and say, ‘we now have most of southern Ukraine and more of the East. We pause now, resume later.’
And he’ll speak with the same assurance of Russian leaders who offered security guarantees to Ukraine when they gave up their nuclear weapons in the 90s, only to violate them later.
The sanctions imposed by the West are biting. Putin’s army is short of men, thus the decision to increase the upper age limit to conscription from 30 to 40 years old.
It’s in Ukraine’s best interest that the war be short for they are fighting in their land and suffering all manner of losses. And it’s in our best interest too.
But we need to push harder.
I was pleased to hear that a large aid package to Ukraine was approved with bipartisan support, and that Biden is about to send more weapons, i.e. MLRS, multiple launch rocket systems to Ukraine. But it may not be enough.
So why not give aircraft to the Ukrainians, fighter jets they can use to push back Russia in the East and elsewhere?
Would this be seen as an escalation on the part of the West? Yes.
But is Russia fighting in Ukraine with an army equal to theirs? No.
So is it fair for Russia to have all the advantages and for Ukrainian soldiers to be supermen and beat back the Russians with fewer numbers and weapons?
No.
While Ukraine has the will to fight, the West, not just the US, should give them what they need.
This is the time.
Will the giving of aircraft push Putin to threaten nuclear weapons?
Maybe, but I don’t think so. By now his posturing has been degraded.
And just how will he threaten with his nuclear weapons? Will he threaten to use them in Ukraine itself, or will he threaten to fire on the West?
The resolve the West has shown in support of Ukraine tells Putin that we are not intimidated.
He has nuclear weapons and so do we.
Putin is not crazy. He likes remaining in control of his country which by now, after 20 years of his leadership, has become emotionally impoverished and accustomed to bowing to the ‘great’ leader. Accustomed also, to seeing their emerging leaders, like Alexei Navalny, be treated like criminals. Navalny just had his prison term extended on trumped up charges.
What this war has shown, is that Putin is no match for the West.
China is seeing the drama unfold and is having second thoughts about betting on Vladimir.
Having become an accomplice of Putin has eroded China’s prestige in the world.
And should they catch wind that Putin wanted to use nuclear weapons, they would be the first to tell him, ‘Don’t. For if you do, the West will answer, hit you and hit us too.’
Ukraine needs planes to win this war.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.

The Butcher of Moscow

He was sitting at his desk in his bunker when the call came in. The general he had summoned had arrived. Putin reached over to the photo of Josef Stalin he kept on his desk and put it in one of the drawers.
The general stepped in. Putin signaled for him to take a seat across. The general did.
Putin – Good to see you.
General – Pleasure as always, Mr President.
Putin – Wanted to hear from you directly how are things on the front.
General – There has been much resistance as I detailed on my report from yesterday but I’m confident we will prevail.
Putin – How long?
General – That’s a hard question to answer.
Putin – A guess…
General – It could go on for months… with the West providing so much equipment.

Putin looks off as he nods.

General – Their morale is high… they’re good fighters. It’s their land we’re taking over…
Putin – No, General, it’s our land.
General – I meant they’ve been there for a long time… and they’ve been able to put up with a lot of killing.

Putin leans forward, intertwines his hands.

Putin – Do I look like I’m having trouble sleeping?
General (scrutinizing briefly Putin’s face) – Mr President, your expression looks fresh and healthy.
Putin – You know why?
General – You’re convinced you’re doing the right thing?
Putin – Yes… God is on my side.

The General nods.

Putin – The Russian orthodox church says I’m in the right and that’s good enough for me.
Are you a believer?
General – I am.

He had prepared himself for the question.

Putin – I don’t want to keep losing Russian soldiers… so I may have to use nuclear weapons.

The General flinches, surprised by the statement.

Putin – Even though I think that a long war will eventually work to our benefit… carefully placed nuclear weapons would make a big difference. The war is raising energy prices, fueling inflation, creating food shortages, lowering morale throughout the West. Do you follow the capital markets in the West?
General – Not regularly, Mr President.
Putin – They’re panicking, selling and selling, the likelihood being that they will go into a recession… even a depression… which would erode support for Biden and his people. All of which makes it more likely that America will see more political divisions and increase the possibility that Trump will be reelected in 2024.
General – That would be good for us?
Putin – Of course. He’ll agree to the superpowers carving out spheres of influence and we’ll all live happily ever after. I will do everything possible to see him reelected… but I can’t wait that long. Nuclear bombs in Kyiv, Lviv, Odessa… will send a clear message. Surrender immediately. Or else… more will be on the way.

The General looks down at the ground for a moment, gathering his thoughts.

General – Wouldn’t that be killing a lot of innocent people?
Putin – Innocent? If they’re collaborating with the enemy they’re not innocents.
General – But don’t you think the West will figure out you’re planning a strike and do something about it?
Putin – Maybe. But they have a lot of people to consult before they make a decision. I can make my choice quickly.
General – They may have a plan ready to go…
Putin – Perhaps. But I’ll take my chances.
General – That would be a big chance you’d be taking. It would change the history of the world.

Putin nods as he narrows his eyes.

Putin – I hadn’t thought about it that way… but it definitely would. Still, the Japanese were able to rebuild.
General – Too many innocent people would be killed or burned.
Putin – There are no innocent people in this war…
General – The children…

Putin shakes his head as he looks directly at the general. Why is he having to repeat himself?

Putin – Do you think the West will give planes to Ukrainians?
General – I’m sure they’re thinking about it. The Czechs already send in helicopters and are repairing them too. With planes they could hurt us badly.
Putin – Another reason to drop the nuclear weapons.
General – But the West may respond by using nuclear weapons on our troops and that would be it.
Putin – I don’t think they would. They would think it inhumane… or wrestle with their conscience. Advantage Putin. For I would not hesitate to fire on Washington, New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, London, Berlin, Paris, Amsterdam…

The General looks off for a moment,

Putin – A lot of killing, you think?
General (now looking at Putin) – That’s… destroying the world as we know it…

Putin is struck by the statement.

Putin – The world as we know it…? Interesting. General, I detect a certain pro-Western bias…
General (puzzled) – How so?
Putin – What about China, India, Africa, South America, the Middle East, Southeast Asia… aren’t they important engines of growth?
General – Of course, but the cities you mentioned are at the cutting edge…
Putin – No, general… they’re decaying cities, filled with corruption, greed, moral decay and perversion… but you don’t seem to get that.
General – I do… but there’s a vitality there that enriches our world…

The general catches himself. He had forgot caution.

Putin (eyeing the general carefully, speaking deliberately) – I’m not just fighting for Russia, general, though I’ve warned them… said it again and again… do not encircle me with NATO. I must have my Ukraine. How many times do I have to repeat it?
I’m fighting for a new world order… so the nations of the East and South can emerge… and shake off the shackles of unrestrained capitalism…

The general nods uncertainly.

General – If we attack… wouldn’t they destroy Moscow, St Petersburg… so much life, so much history?
Putin – I would get to them before they get to us.
General – How can you be sure of that?
Putin – I am sure. That’s why I have ruled this nation as long as I have. That’s why people believe in me.
But rest assured, general, it won’t come to that. If the West chooses to use nuclear weapons against our troops in retaliation, then there will be nothing left in Ukraine… and I will take it over and rebuild.

Putin sits back in his chair, taking his time.

Putin – General… your pro-Western bias worries me… I believe that’s made you less effective on the battlefield.
General (quickly, emphatically) – I assure you it has not. What I said is simply an acknowledgement that the cities you mentioned are creative centers… I believe in Russia’s importance in the world, Mr President…
Putin (ignoring him) – Which may be why we’ve not gained more territory.
General (urgently) – Mr President, I have given the war effort and our conquest of Ukraine all of my energies, day and night…
Putin – But your attitude would easily lead to a lack of conviction… in ways not easily detected…
so be quiet, please.

Pause.

Putin – I hate to do this, dear sir… how long have you been in the armed forces?
General – Thirty five years, sir… and proud of it.
Putin – It may be time for you to retire.

The general’s heart sinks. He closes his eyes.

Putin – You have been obedient and loyal… but maybe it’s time for you to spend more time with your family.
General – But why, sir?
Putin – I don’t think you have the commitment I need to have my orders followed unquestioningly. I don’t get that you’re hungry for victory.
General – That is not true.
Putin – Be quiet.

Leaning forward, the general rubs his face. His eyes now moistened.

General (choosing to fight) – Don’t you think it’s good for Russia that you hear different opinions? For instance, our soldiers’ morale has been low, that has affected performance on the battlefield.
Putin – And what have you done about it?
General – I’ve told them that we must sacrifice for a greater Russia. I’ve joined them in the front lines… stood side by side with them… they just don’t believe me. I’ve proposed they be given bonuses…
Putin (firmly) – The morale of our troops has been low because you lack commitment, general. That is why.

The General looks off, feeling defeated.

Putin (softly, almost caringly) – You’ll be placed under house arrest effective immediately. Return directly to your home. A security detail will follow you. You may leave now.
General (pleading) – I don’t deserve this, Mr President.
Putin – That is my final decision.
General – Will you please reconsider?
Putin – Didn’t I just say my decision was final?

The General stands, salutes energetically and exits.

On the way out, he thinks to himself, ‘And what do I tell my children that I did for mother Russia?’

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts