Putin – Page 9 – Oscar Valdes

Wake Up Russia!

Your leader is massacring Ukrainians.
By choosing to invade their country he has given license to kill innocent people.
Men, women and children.

Your country was not being threatened but your leader, who does as he pleases because few object, came up with the idea that he was being threatened and so he thought he must give the order to kill Ukrainians.
He could do so because most Russians have been silenced.
Silenced by fear.
All of us pay a price when we allow others to intimidate us.
That is why it is so important to respect free speech. To hold free elections.

But year after year of your leader being in power – since 1999 – the Russian majority has chosen to be quiet.
And now all of us pay the price. Not just you but Ukrainians and the rest of the world.
You are not alone in your passivity.
In China, a section of the country has cheered on the invaders, celebrating the killing of Ukrainians by your leader.
They too, like you, have yielded to fear for they have neither free speech nor free elections, but they cheer on invading Russian troops in the belief that by doing so they get to turn fear into courage.

Ukrainians know better. They know their freedom has a price. And in refusing to be governed by Moscow – refusing to have to answer to your boss – have put up an heroic resistance against a superior army and vowed not to yield.
Their president, Volodymyr Zelensky has been leading the effort. If he were ever to doubt that he had the strength to do so, he need only look to his grandfather who was a soldier in the Russian Army in World War II.
Ukrainians’ valor has marked this moment in history and the nation has become the pride of our world.

Because the murderous invasion of Ukraine has not gone according to plan and their people are fighting back, now your leader speaks of setting your nuclear forces in high alert.
But the West will not be intimidated. We will not stop sending arms to the Ukrainian resistance and one day they will be proud NATO members.
The pain inflicted by your leader will not be forgotten.

I know there is a core of dissenters in your country. That men and women with enormous courage have chosen to defy your leader and have suffered or have been killed or exiled because of it.
But the number of dissenters must grow. The protests have to increase.
The abuses of a man who does not listen to his people must be challenged.

For a nation to thrive there must be an open dialogue with its leaders.
You need to fight to have that dialogue.
Look at Germany. Until a day ago it was unwilling to send arms to Ukraine. But protests mounted and they have now changed course. They have committed to aid brave Ukraine.
That dialogue has died in Russia and so your leader is free to do as he wishes.

Dear Russians, you could have that dialogue, too, but you must demand it.
So why don’t you stand up and joins us?
We welcome your contributions to humanity’s grand project – men and women’s eternal struggle to have a voice of their own and live with dignity.

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net anchor.fm, buzzsprout, medium.com, apple and google podcasts.

The West is Under Attack

The brutality that Putin has unleashed against Ukraine is an attack on the West.

Falsely claiming that he is being threatened, Putin has chosen to ravage a country which, having been enslaved by the Soviet Union, now choses to commit to a world of freedom.

He has resorted to all manner of lies. Called the Ukrainian government ‘Nazis’, said that Ukraine’s effort to fend off attacks by Russian separatists in the Donbas region are an act of genocide against the Russian people.

But Ukrainians need only look to their neighbor to see what they will become if they continue to live under the boot of Putin and his supporters.

As I write, more Russian forces advance on Kyiv which is being bombed and where street fighting is raging.

The images of their suffering touches all of us deeply.

Both Ukrainian men and women have volunteered to fight for their land, to resist, to put obstacles in the path to the invaders.

They are willing to face the trained soldiers of a clearly more powerful army no matter what the consequences. In the photos that reach us there they are, holding guns in their hands, their souls looking at us directly and asking, why?

Those brave volunteers that we see standing in the photos may be dead in the next hours.

Protests rallies have sparked all over the world. The blue and yellow of the Ukrainian flag is worn proudly by protesters and displayed on buildings or in night lighting.

Ukrainian men and women living in Poland are choosing to return to Ukraine to defend their land.

Volodymyr Zelensky has bravely called on all willing to join the struggle. ‘Wherever you are, come help us.’

His cry ‘What use will the sanctions be after they bomb us?’ resonates in the hearts and minds of those who are in a position to change things.

His pressure has had effects. Now Putin has been included in the list of those being sanctioned after a more cautious approach proved futile. Restrictions on Russia’s banking have been stiffened. But nothing has stopped him so far. And perhaps nothing will.

But the West needs to go where it hurts.

The West needs to go all out and completely stop the buying of oil and gas from Russia.

Putin has gambled, that the West will support Ukraine but stop short if its sanctions hurt our economy.

But it is not only Ukraine but the West that is under attack.

This is the time to act and accept the inflationary pressures that will come from energy shortages and their impact on economic production.

Now is the time to act.

China, in its stance to stand by Russia, tells us clearly who and what they value. That is what their government is. They will do whatever they can to weaken the West, even though they are now where they are now partly because of what the West has contributed to their development.

But they are thinking ahead and planning to do in Taiwan what Russia is now doing in Ukraine.

Like Russia, the Chinese are governed by leaders who are enemies of free speech. Leaders who think nothing of squashing the democracy movement in Hong Kong or ruthlessly suppressing the Uyghur people in Xinjiang province.

This is a time for the West to act decisively.

There will be economic pain if we stop purchasing oil and gas from Russia but a world order will be staunchly defended by such action.

This is the time to start isolating Putin.

This is the time for him to pay the consequences of his brutality. A brutality that has been in full display in his backing of Assad in Syria and other countries.

He reasons that his ambitions are worth whatever the cost in human lives. He doesn’t care.

But he is not Russia.

And Russia is not Putin. There are great people in Russia, a land with a vast pool of talent as seen in their creativity, scientific and cultural.

As we speak, Russians are also struggling under the boot of a ruthless tyrant.

We believe in the power of men and women. And men and women everywhere long for freedom. In Russia, in China, in Syria, in Venezuela, all over the world. The task is to aid them in breaking the chains that have been placed upon them by cruel leaders thinking only of their own benefits.

Cutting off Russia from the oil markets in the West will have an enormous negative impact on their economy. And Russians will choose between remaining under Putin’s boot, or joining with the rest of the world, a world that is eager and open to embrace them.

This is the time to place the severest sanctions on Russia for we are under attack.

President Zelensky’s statement, ‘What use will the sanctions be after they bomb us?’ should be our collective battle cry.

This is the time to act.

Before more and more people are killed and subjugated.

Putin will not change. He is who he is. He has placed his bet.

We have to place ours.

‘What use will the sanctions be after they bomb us?’

Oscarvaldes.net anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts, medium.com

Watching his Troops Run Over Ukraine

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He sits alone in his bunker, watching the bombing of Ukraine, rockets being fired, buildings being set on fire or demolished. He has just got news that his forces took over Chernobyl, north of Kyiv.
He does not yet know the number of dead, on either side.

The sanctions didn’t stop him from invading. Whatever additional ones the West promises to impose, won’t either.
Sure, some of his wealthy associates will be harmed by such restrictions but he will remind them that they owe him. That they are where they are because of him.He is having the time of his life, relishing being top of the news worldwide and being feared.
He is rich, but that brings him little solace. The acquisition of wealth is not what drives him.
Power is what moves him. And he’s living his grand moment.

For too long he’s been in the shadows of world leaders he considers his inferiors when it comes to drive and sheer ambition.
He’s had to live with the frustration of seeing other economies rise and rise, becoming the envy of the world. Apple, for instance, the American technology company, has a value greater than Russia’s entire economy. How did they do that?
He wishes he had been able to unleash the full creative potential of his fellow Russians.
But he didn’t. Somehow, he reflects, his concern with power, stood in the way.

On a clear night, when he looks up at the sky as he is fond of doing and sees the international space station orbiting the earth, he thinks of the Russian cosmonauts up there. And he reminds himself that it was two Russians and an American who first went up to that station. Years ago.
He knows he presides over a powerhouse of talent. Russians with great ability in many fields. And yet, economically, Russia is in the shadows of America and now China.
It is hard to stomach.

In his clearer moments, he recognizes that the world sees him as associated with brutality.
Supporting the vicious Assad in Syria, for instance. The Generals in Myanmar. The repressive government of Maduro in Venezuela. And associates of his, with his consent, of course, have mercenary troops spreading through Africa, aiding in the coercion and subjugation of hundreds of thousands of people.
All of that and yet, somehow, whatever the pain being inflicted, doesn’t keep him up at night.
He sleeps soundly.
How interesting the human mind, able to put things in separate spaces – boxes or compartments, call them what you wish – so that there is little spilling over between them.
Ah, but enough of that introspection.

He has invaded his beloved Ukraine because it belongs to him, belongs to Russia, and whatever the costs to be paid he will pay them.
His troops have acted quickly and decisively so there will be little chance for an armed resistance to make a difference.
He will put Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky in a plane and send him to Poland, or Moldova. Anywhere but keep him in Ukraine. Let him blah blah all he wants about Putin in exile, but he will not set foot in Ukraine ever again.

He is surprised that Biden had the gumption to rally Europeans to oppose him. He likes that about him. Feisty. But he’s always liked feisty people. And then being able to outwit and dominate them.
He pauses and swivels around in his chair. The mood pensive.

‘I grant that during my reign, I did not have the ability to free up the creativity and imagination of Russians… that’s just not me… but I did have the genius to develop a terrific armed force, to facilitate the development of an arms industry, and make Russians proud’.

He closes his eyes as he rubs his face softly.
‘Biden will not give in but neither will I. And I will drive my army all the way to the border with Romania, Moldova, Hungary and Poland. And scare the West… so Russians will be happy, like they were when we went into Crimea.
As to the sanctions, I’m not worried. We will find ways around them. China will help, of course. They know they need me. Though now and then I will have to remind them I have lots more nuclear warheads than they do.’
He laughs.

‘In America, Trump likes me. How interesting. Something about my charismatic personality. I never imagined that would happen. I love it, of course. And when the next elections come around, well, I’ll think of something. Anyway, whether Trump gets reelected or not, sooner or later, an American president will be chosen who doesn’t care about Ukraine, and the sanctions will be lifted. Europe may complain but without American support, they will slowly yield. It will be their excuse to appease me. And all their presidents, chancellors and prime ministers will come to Moscow to endear themselves to me, to buy my oil and gas and wheat and aluminum and nickel and palladium, for we have it all, and get back to business as usual.
But Ukraine will be mine.’

He leans over to the desk next to him and picks up a globe of the earth.
He looks at the area where Ukraine is drawn.
He taps on it and says, ‘how many men can boast that they redrew the boundaries of a country?’
And he laughs loudly.
‘I can see the title of an upcoming book by some writer, “Putin, the Conqueror”. Maybe even become a film.’
He laughs again.

Behind him, in the wall monitors facing his desk, Russian war planes fly over cities in Ukraine.

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.

What Use Will the Sanctions Be After they Bomb Us?

Said Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, a few days ago.
He is right.
The West has announced sanctions on two major Russian banks and on Russian debt after Putin’s troops entered the Donetsk and Lugansk ‘new’ republics in the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine.

But the EU–US alliance is choosing to not announce what is to follow until the invader takes the next step.
To Putin, that smells of the West not being truly convinced of his intentions to take over the entire Ukraine.
The only firm deterrent to him would have been NATO’s troops on the ground, but since Ukraine is not a NATO member, that was never going to happen.

There is a clear difference in the motivations of the contending parties.
Putin has made up his mind to annex Ukraine.
The West, though committed to placing sanctions on him, is not quite clear on which ones to choose.
So Putin, who’s willing to dare and push his way through the entire country, East to West, North to South, is not deterred by them.

Regardless of Mr Biden’s firm efforts in addressing the crisis, Putin is calculating that the West’s lack of strong conviction owes to their needing to check with lots of nations to make sure no one member of the alliance is disproportionately burdened by any one sanction.
Putin, on the other hand, does not have to weigh any such considerations. He alone speaks for Russia, and therein lies his advantage.

It was a confidence booster for the West to hear that, upon starting the invasion, Germany had stepped up and stopped the certification of Nord Stream 2, the gas pipeline from Russia to their northern shore. But as Putin’s troops run over Ukraine, what else will they agree on?

Putin seems to have no interest in diplomacy.

‘What use will the sanctions be after they bomb us?’

Zelensky sees, quite clearly, that Ukraine matters more to Putin than to the West.
Placing sanctions on Russia will also have an economic cost to the West but it is Ukraine that will pay dearly once they end up a vassal state.
Ukrainians know this is their fight. They know it will be Ukrainian blood that will be spilled.
Western principles will be invoked and sanctions placed on Russia to support such principles, but in the end the great fight will be fought by Ukrainians. It will be their parents and children and brothers and sisters who will die in defense of their land, paying with their flesh and blood the price to have a destiny of their own.

Putin is no grand strategist but a clever and vicious thug. He can spot weakness in an adversary and do what he needs to suit his needs.
Today, he is bent on grabbing a nation, capturing a people, subjecting it to his will.
We don’t know what he will want tomorrow.
Letting him know in advance what the sanctions are may be more effective than announcing them after his assaults. And though sanctions alone, however severe, will not deter him, they will inflict harm, which combined with Ukrainians’ courage to fight may prove decisive.

Ukrainians know it us up to them to bear the greater cost of the struggle.
And that surrender is not an option.

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

Ukraine -Russia. Possible Outcomes

One. Russia launches a massive cyberattack followed by a full assault from the air, land and sea.They overwhelm the Ukrainian army and the population surrenders without a fight. President Zelensky and his cabinet are flown to Germany. Pockets of resistance are snuffed out with missile attacks.

Two. Russia launches a full attack but Ukrainians fight back and thousands are killed. The world watches in horror as Russian tanks roll over everything and planes bomb the population. Zelensky and the cabinet leave for Poland to form a government in exile. The West refrains from combat as planned and opens the borders of Poland, Hungary and Romania to war refugees.

Three. Russia attacks but Ukrainians resist with such force that they stop the attack. Huge quantities of weaponry are flown in from the West to support the effort. President Zelensky calls for volunteers from the rest of the world to aid in the resistance. A Brigade for Freedom in Ukraine is formed. The world denounces the enormous loss of life and property and a United Nations security council meeting is convened to sanction Russia but China vetoes the motion arguing that Russia is only defending itself from western threats. The fight roars on for weeks until a truce is agreed upon and Ukraine is officially divided between East and West. Kyiv will be in the West.

(China, meanwhile, speeds up preparations to invade Taiwan)

Four. Russia does nothing. They start to deescalate and blame the West for goading them into a fight. But they reinforce the dissident forces in the Donbas area and have them renew their push against the Ukrainian forces.

Five. Russia sends in special commandos in a nighttime raid that kidnaps president Zelensky and flies him to Minsk, setting up the stage for a Russia friendly president to take over.

Six. Errant missiles fired by Russia land in Poland and Hungary inflicting human and material destruction and causing western nations to ready for war in keeping with article 5 of the NATO charter. A nuclear confrontation looms. The stock market drops 2000 points in a single day as the world goes into a recession.

Seven. Putin is put under house arrest and a new leader emerges in Russia. To the public, he just caught Covid.

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net. anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.

Getting Closer

Putin keeps circling Ukraine, amassing troops around it and tightening his grip. Ukrainians are running out of air. They have started to have trouble breathing.

Putin is loving the world’s attention. This is what he’s always dreamed of. Americans rushing frantically, here and there, trying to convince allies that the time is now and some allies saying, ‘Well… I’m not sure.’

Putin laughs. And he thinks, you have to be doing like the ostrich does, to not see what’s in front of you.

But of course he will invade.

The West is divided. Beautiful. Just Beautiful.

Trucker protests in Canada are now spreading to America and France and affecting commerce, rattling nerves. ‘We need freedom!’ they chant as they blare their horns for hours on end stressing everybody else. ‘Pay attention to me!’ ‘I count too!’ ‘No vaccine mandates!’ they say.

And in their minds, they must be convinced that if they keep it up, they will be able to bend the arm of government and boost the chances of a nationalist party rising to the top and finally putting an end to that nasty immigration problem they have and can’t solve, plus the worrying about other countries far, far away. Too far.

Long live Trump!

And when Putin runs over Ukraine and crushes them, shamelessly making the country a province of the greater Russia, the protesters in the West will simply say, ‘Putin needs his space. So long as he respects ours, we’ll be okay. He’s one of us, a devoted nationalist.’

Meanwhile, to aid their case, business interests in Germany are saying that the talk of economic sanctions on Russia when they invade, would affect them as much as the Russians and that prices would go up for all. So no sanctions, please. We cannot afford it. How about a slap on the wrist, instead? If Putin wants a little bit more of Ukraine to feel less anxious about his hold on power, why not give it to him? It’s just Ukraine, so relax. Anyway, the man won’t live forever. And we need to keep an eye on our bottom line, that’s number one.’

And Putin will be smiling. He could kiss the truckers and their rants and the businessmen fretting over the bottom line being above everything else.

‘You are lovely, thank you’ Putin will say. ‘I agree with you, some people need to be sacrificed sometimes. We all know that. The Germans knew it. They just went about it the wrong way. You won’t see me making that same mistake again. I promise. So long as I live.’

If divisions in America are not enough, then there’s inflation.

Supply chains have not got back to normal, demand is driving up prices and traders and investors are panicking. Stocks are dropping like lead in water – straight down – investors worrying that the new interest rates the Federal Reserve will set in March will be either too high or too low. The Federal Reserve won’t be able to do enough to calm the nerves. If the new rate increase is 0.5 bps investors will sell because the central bank is too aggressive. If the new rate increase is 0.25 bps then the Feds don’t know what they’re doing and are avoiding reality. Either way, value will drain out of the markets.

Putin will be salivating.

‘Oh, I never imagined it would look this good. In congress, Republicans and Democrats can barely agree on anything. Republicans have Biden checked. The poor guy, a lifetime waiting to govern and then he gets blocked. And Republicans will squash him in November. No, not squash but stomp on him. And Kamala Harris can forget about it. The two houses will be Republican and my good friend Donald Trump will win in November 2024. It will be great to see him again. He and I can talk. We can divide Europe according to our wishes. He can keep Britain – I’ve never been fond of those rascals. But Poland, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, the Baltic nations, they will come my way. A new era dawns. Thank you, Donald, for planting the seeds. Thank you for inspiring the Capitol assault on 1/6/2020and the way that has influenced the imagination of Americans. Thank you, you are the greatest. I wouldn’t be on the brink of invading Ukraine and making it a province of Mother Russia if it weren’t for the way you set things up. The way you showed Americans that there is indeed a place for totalitarian government, for the rule of the majority. I’ll be forever grateful. And maybe, you can change the constitution so you can get elected a 3^rd time. I promise you all the help I can possibly give. I’ll keep you out of it, of course, so as not to compromise you. What are good friends for.’

And Putin has one final thought.

It has occurred to him to contact some groups and urge them to stage another assault on the Capitol… and even the White House itself. But it might be too obvious. But there are people willing. Still, he will tread carefully. He knows the field. He was once a trusted KGB man. So he knows that world. In and out. And how some spies will work for both sides.

Feeling like he’s on top of the world, he smiles confidently and says, ‘I’ve got them.’

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net. anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

Russians Should Not Wait for History

What keeps them from resisting Putin’s rule?

The largest nation in the world, with vast mineral resources and a capable people,

is not on a par with the leading nations of the West. Is not on a par with China.

People don’t travel to Russia as they do to other leading nations.

But they have nuclear weapons in abundance, so they are prone to scare the rest of the world with firing them. Never mind that the rest of the world will fire back too and the result will be catastrophic.

Why are Russians so afraid of the rest of us?

Why do they let a man like Putin be their leader?

Russia is not a free country.

Dissident organizations that Putin sees as critical of him are labelled terrorists and banned. Critics of his regime are imprisoned or killed.

Putin is a defender and supporter of Assad in Syria, of the ruthless military in Burma, of Maduro in Venezuela, of Ortega in Nicaragua. Name a repressive government in the world and the likelihood is that Russia is having a hand in propping them up and defending them.

Still, most Russians seem able to turn off the lights at night and sleep till morning, their conscience undisturbed.

Today, Russia is a threat in Ukraine, a country with whom they have a shared history. Mind you, neighbors disagree all the time and should be allowed to do so. But Putin says no, Ukraine cannot disagree with this wonderful system I lead, this majestic empire of ours, and if they stray from our path we will crush them.

And so Russians are afraid because they have been intimidated by Putin and his close supporters.

It can happen anywhere. Trump in America wanted to do it. His supporters still try.

But the price we pay in allowing it is great.

The price of yielding to fear is that we are diminished as people, as human beings.

The price is that we get smaller inside.

The price is that we give up on opportunities that may not come back.

Putin wants to govern until he dies. But the longer that Russians put up with him, the more lasting the damage he inflicts on them.

And he will invent all kinds of threats from the West or anywhere, to tell Russians ‘look at what they are doing to us! But I’m here to defend you!’

It’s all a show, ‘The Putin Show.’

History will see it clearly, but Russians should not wait for history. Their lives are now. They need to step up and dare to develop their vast potential and in so doing rise to be among the leading nations of today’s world.

It will take courage. But anything we earn takes courage.

Fellow Russians – brothers and sisters – you have the power.

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net. anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and goggle podcasts.

More Absurdities

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On Sunday, president Macron of France was quoted by a French newspaper as stating that he did not believe Russia’s goal was to seize Ukraine, but instead to ‘clarify the rules of cohabitation’ with NATO and the EU. He added that Russia had a right to seek security guarantees from the West.

But who is doing the threatening in Ukraine?

Who has encircled it with 130,000 troops?

Who annexed Crimea in 2014, biting off a huge chunk from Ukriane?

Who has fueled a war in the Donbas area in eastern Ukraine with cumulative deaths estimated to be 14,000 and counting?

The West is racing to help arm Ukraine with defensive weapons only, not the kind they could use to attack Russia. And the West is doing it so Ukrainians can put up a good fight when the Russian tanks start rolling and their airplanes start strafing their people.

Mr Macron’s need to seek attention seems to have outrun his common sense.

Maybe it’s the prospect of national elections later this year that is the key motivator.

Mr Macron went further. He stated that one of the models on the table was to make Ukraine like Finland during the Cold War with the Soviet Union, when the Finnish were allowed to remain ‘independent’ but they could not join NATO, and Russia was permitted to have ‘considerable influence over their political options.’

So the West allows Ukraine to be ‘considerably’ influenced by Russia?

Doesn’t that sound like betrayal?

To please Putin’s paranoia?

In another article, mention is made of a spokesperson for Russia’s Foreign Ministry, a woman declaring that the West was demonizing Russia, so as to take public attention away from their domestic crises, invest huge sums to arm ‘fragile democracies’ (as in Ukraine), and bolster an image of invincibility that has been weakened by the Afghanistan collapse.

But do we have political prisoners like you do?

What about releasing Alexei Navalny, whom you poisoned and nearly killed?

What about your branding every dissident organization you find upsetting, a terrorist one?

In democracies we sometimes elect people to govern us who are not fit, but we can throw them out at the end of their terms. You can’t do that. You’ve been stuck with Putin since 1999.

Yes, we parade every day our million flaws so that the whole world wonders how it is we still function.

But we do.

And we prosper.

Unlike Russia, where, with no free press, the citizenry is daily growing convinced that it is America who wants to invade them.

Quoted statements for this piece come from articles appearing in the New York Times on 2/7/2022. The reflections and judgments are my own.

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net. anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

Germany: You Got Help to Pull Out from Under the Russian Boot

Now it’s time you return the favor. Help Ukraine. They need weapons.

The use of weapons in defense of freedom is a responsible act

Why is Germany so reluctant to stand up against Putin?

After overcoming a history of atrocities against Jews and starting World War II – Germany has made a courageous effort to confront its past. And that gives the nation gravitas.

They know what it is to struggle with guilt. They know what it is to struggle with fear, misery and pain.

But their choice to not send weapons to Ukraine is worrisome. Furthermore, they do not wish to join in sanctioning Russia with exclusion from Swift, the infrastructure that allows interbank transactions, should they invade.

Germany is fully aware of the consequences. They are saying, ‘we understand the threat to Europe that a Russian invasion represents but we believe we will be spared.’

And they probably will.

But they are wrong.

Germany, by virtue of its standing and accomplishments, is a leader in Europe. Will they allow their position to be tarnished?

Ukraine wants to keep moving towards Western Europe and Russia is saying no. No and we will invade you, says Putin. No and we will arm your brothers and sisters in the Donbas area and fuel a fight that will keep you killing each other rather than letting you go to the West.

The same thing happened to Germany after WWII when the nation was divided into East and West, the Soviets (Russia) controlling the East. While the greater prosperity in the West kept acting as a powerful factor urging their unification, a bitter and resentful East Germany, went on shooting dead all those attempting to cross to the West.

Other countries intervened to help Germany become one nation.

Now they are being asked by history to play its part in assisting Ukraine.

But Germany is conflicted, reluctant to stand up against their former oppressor.

They have the power to assist, the strength to be a deciding factor.

And yet they will not.

But you can’t give in to a bully and keep your self respect.

Because you once misused weapons and caused immeasurable pain, does not excuse you from using them when the cause is honorable.

Ukraine’s plight is dire. They want freedom.

Germany has freedom. It needs to prove to itself that it can help defend it against the greatest oppressor those neighboring countries face – the reality of a life impoverished by the rigidities and cruelty of a repressive system, as in East Germany after WWII and until October 1990.

Will Germany defy Russia or bow to it?

Defiance in defense of a nation begging for help is a mark of immense courage.

And a chance for Germany to restore its full pride as a people who can and will bear arms responsibly in defense of justice anywhere in the world.

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net. google and apple podcasts and buzzsprout

Does the West Have the Guts?

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Putin is sitting at his desk in the Kremlin. He is alone.

‘So the head of the German navy said that Crimea (annexed forcefully by Russia in 2014) was “gone, it will never come back” and that I, Vladimir Putin, only wanted and “probably deserved respect”, and that it would be “low cost, even no cost” for the West to give me such support, in part because it needed Russia as a bulwark against China.’ (WSJ 1/22/2021)

Putin laughs.

‘Beautiful. I should send him a check. Just beautiful. And if that is the head of the Navy talking, then he reflects the opinions of many Germans in the armed forces. In other words, they’re acknowledging their weakness and their need for me and all Russians, to defend them from the Chinese. Never mind Ukraine, they can be sacrificed. They are expendable to keep me happy. To give me respect.’

He shakes his head slowly, still in disbelief at the comments from the German officer. Now a hint of a smile forms on his lips.

‘If I hadn’t put the pressure on them, the cracks wouldn’t have shown. I would never have guessed it… Vladimir Putin as a defender of the West. This is too much’.

He smiles broadly for a moment and then, leaning forward, hands clasped, his mood turns somber.

‘Ukraine is mine. The West cannot get consensus, and I’ll drive my army right through their doubts. And the sanctions they will impose, whatever they may be, they won’t work because they won’t last, because Germans will start complaining of how cold it gets after I turn off the natural gas they depend on me for. And they’ll start calling their prime minister pleading that he intervenes, that their factories cannot produce enough and they’re not making enough money. And they’ll beg that the government appeal to my generosity.

And the French will bitch that they can’t get enough croissants, and the Italians not enough pasta, and Macron and Draghi will call pleading for a meeting with me.

Or they’ll turn to America for help, but the Americans will say they can’t act without consensus – but nothing can get through their congress, and their people keep tearing each other apart over vaccinations, abortion, gun control, race, women’s rights, so how are they an example to anyone?

And all the while, I’ll be smiling, as I arrive in Kyiv at the head of my triumphant army, secure control of the country, appoint one of my devout followers to write a new pro Russian constitution, then take a well deserved vacation in Sochi, do some skiing, and plan my next move.

Life is beautiful. Yes, it is.’

He stands, crosses to the window, looks out.

‘What is the secret of my astounding success? Simple. My willingness to act. To repress dissent if necessary. To squash opponents if called for. Alexei Navalny will never rise to power while I’m alive. I’ll invent charges for him to die in prison.

And those I’ve sent into exile will die in exile.

But I do have to invigorate Russia’s economy. I must do that. My fellow Russians expect that from me. Trump said “America first. Well, I say Russians first”.

And to do that I will look to the Chinese system. It is much better than democracy.

Look at how fast they’ve risen. I’m envious of them. I recognize that.

But I don’t trust the Chinese, either.

They mesmerized America with the promise of riches. How can you explain that America has fallen behind in their production of microchips? In artificial intelligence?

The Chinese cast their spell and America relaxed. “Don’t worry, America, we have what you need,” they said, but the tags read “Made in China.” “We are making you money, isn’t that what you’re about?” And America nodded a little more, its belly growing in size, its robust quarterly reports in hand as it dozed off.

China smiled.

Then it struck. The South China Sea is ours. The Belt and Road initiative is on. We’re going after Taiwan. We’re conquering outer space on our own, never mind the International Space Agency, which you denied us entry to. And there we are.

Trump may have put America to sleep – in terms of their place in the world – but the trend was already there. Hubris. It will kill you.

Now it’s Russia’s turn. My turn.

And so this is only the beginning. For I will keep annexing territory. Little by little. The Baltic countries look like a good possibility. Little Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia. Who will go to war for them? No one. They are too small.

Then I expand. Poland would be a good one to catch. A fat little fish.

And again, who will go to war for Poland?

Not Germany. Not America.

In America they’ll say, ‘Wait, we’ve too many problems here at home, with our schools, immigration, racism, inequality, we need more time.’

‘Once upon a time they had fight in them. Now it’s gone. But they will still kneel before China to get their money.’

Putin laughs. Then the pensive and serious mood returns, eyes narrowed.

‘Ukraine is mine. Not just the East, but the whole country. It’s mine.’

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net. apple and google podcasts and buzzsprout