The West has shown surprising resolve in sanctioning Russia. Ukrainians are fighting bravely for their land. Protests against Putin are mounting worldwide. The sight of a superior army attempting to trample over a smaller nation has raised the ire of humanity. It is the big bully murdering people with impunity. Soldiers and civilians alike. And still he marches on, unrepentant, completely sure of himself, thirsty for even more blood.
He will not stop until Russia controls all of Ukraine, no matter what the cost in lives. A man like him cannot live with defeat. He has consented to talks with Ukraine in neighboring Belarus for the sake of appearances, but he will not cede ground and instead demand complete acceptance of his terms. He lies constantly and apparently believes his lies too. The West should not relent in the pressure it is applying on him. Ukraine should make no concessions whatsoever. Putin invented the reasons for this war and will have to pay for the blood he’s spilled.
The West should up the sanctions all the way, applying them in the energy sector by stopping the purchase of Russian oil and gas. There is a good chance that, with the heroic resolve of the Ukrainian people and the assistance from the West, Putin will be pushed back and defeated. Anything short of the complete victory he had in mind would be a political defeat for him, with repercussions of consequence at home. Russia under Putin needs to be isolated.
There is the strong possibility that the Russian people will awaken from their stupor to realize the folly of being led by a man who is obsessed with amassing personal power. A man who, for the sake of his aggrandizement, does not hesitate to kill innocent people, whether Ukrainian or Russian.
He has been able to manipulate the Russian media to suit his ends but gradually the truth will surface and the Russian people will react. But the West needs to keep up the pressure and increase it. Cutting off purchases of Russian oil and gas would do so.
It will cost us too but the West has today a great opportunity to change the balance of power in the world. With relentless pressure in the battlefield and in the markets, it could well be that Ukraine will become the graveyard of Putin’s dreams of grandeur. Russia deserves far better than what Putin has delivered. Fight on!
Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.
The brutality that Putin has unleashed against Ukraine is an attack on the West.
Falsely claiming that he is being threatened, Putin has chosen to ravage a country which, having been enslaved by the Soviet Union, now choses to commit to a world of freedom.
He has resorted to all manner of lies. Called the Ukrainian government ‘Nazis’, said that Ukraine’s effort to fend off attacks by Russian separatists in the Donbas region are an act of genocide against the Russian people.
But Ukrainians need only look to their neighbor to see what they will become if they continue to live under the boot of Putin and his supporters.
As I write, more Russian forces advance on Kyiv which is being bombed and where street fighting is raging.
The images of their suffering touches all of us deeply.
Both Ukrainian men and women have volunteered to fight for their land, to resist, to put obstacles in the path to the invaders.
They are willing to face the trained soldiers of a clearly more powerful army no matter what the consequences. In the photos that reach us there they are, holding guns in their hands, their souls looking at us directly and asking, why?
Those brave volunteers that we see standing in the photos may be dead in the next hours.
Protests rallies have sparked all over the world. The blue and yellow of the Ukrainian flag is worn proudly by protesters and displayed on buildings or in night lighting.
Ukrainian men and women living in Poland are choosing to return to Ukraine to defend their land.
Volodymyr Zelensky has bravely called on all willing to join the struggle. ‘Wherever you are, come help us.’
His cry ‘What use will the sanctions be after they bomb us?’ resonates in the hearts and minds of those who are in a position to change things.
His pressure has had effects. Now Putin has been included in the list of those being sanctioned after a more cautious approach proved futile. Restrictions on Russia’s banking have been stiffened. But nothing has stopped him so far. And perhaps nothing will.
But the West needs to go where it hurts.
The West needs to go all out and completely stop the buying of oil and gas from Russia.
Putin has gambled, that the West will support Ukraine but stop short if its sanctions hurt our economy.
But it is not only Ukraine but the West that is under attack.
This is the time to act and accept the inflationary pressures that will come from energy shortages and their impact on economic production.
Now is the time to act.
China, in its stance to stand by Russia, tells us clearly who and what they value. That is what their government is. They will do whatever they can to weaken the West, even though they are now where they are now partly because of what the West has contributed to their development.
But they are thinking ahead and planning to do in Taiwan what Russia is now doing in Ukraine.
Like Russia, the Chinese are governed by leaders who are enemies of free speech. Leaders who think nothing of squashing the democracy movement in Hong Kong or ruthlessly suppressing the Uyghur people in Xinjiang province.
This is a time for the West to act decisively.
There will be economic pain if we stop purchasing oil and gas from Russia but a world order will be staunchly defended by such action.
This is the time to start isolating Putin.
This is the time for him to pay the consequences of his brutality. A brutality that has been in full display in his backing of Assad in Syria and other countries.
He reasons that his ambitions are worth whatever the cost in human lives. He doesn’t care.
But he is not Russia.
And Russia is not Putin. There are great people in Russia, a land with a vast pool of talent as seen in their creativity, scientific and cultural.
As we speak, Russians are also struggling under the boot of a ruthless tyrant.
We believe in the power of men and women. And men and women everywhere long for freedom. In Russia, in China, in Syria, in Venezuela, all over the world. The task is to aid them in breaking the chains that have been placed upon them by cruel leaders thinking only of their own benefits.
Cutting off Russia from the oil markets in the West will have an enormous negative impact on their economy. And Russians will choose between remaining under Putin’s boot, or joining with the rest of the world, a world that is eager and open to embrace them.
This is the time to place the severest sanctions on Russia for we are under attack.
President Zelensky’s statement, ‘What use will the sanctions be after they bomb us?’ should be our collective battle cry.
This is the time to act.
Before more and more people are killed and subjugated.
Putin will not change. He is who he is. He has placed his bet.
We have to place ours.
‘What use will the sanctions be after they bomb us?’
Oscarvaldes.net anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts, medium.com
He sits alone in his bunker, watching the bombing of Ukraine, rockets being fired, buildings being set on fire or demolished. He has just got news that his forces took over Chernobyl, north of Kyiv. He does not yet know the number of dead, on either side.
The sanctions didn’t stop him from invading. Whatever additional ones the West promises to impose, won’t either. Sure, some of his wealthy associates will be harmed by such restrictions but he will remind them that they owe him. That they are where they are because of him.He is having the time of his life, relishing being top of the news worldwide and being feared. He is rich, but that brings him little solace. The acquisition of wealth is not what drives him. Power is what moves him. And he’s living his grand moment.
For too long he’s been in the shadows of world leaders he considers his inferiors when it comes to drive and sheer ambition. He’s had to live with the frustration of seeing other economies rise and rise, becoming the envy of the world. Apple, for instance, the American technology company, has a value greater than Russia’s entire economy. How did they do that? He wishes he had been able to unleash the full creative potential of his fellow Russians. But he didn’t. Somehow, he reflects, his concern with power, stood in the way.
On a clear night, when he looks up at the sky as he is fond of doing and sees the international space station orbiting the earth, he thinks of the Russian cosmonauts up there. And he reminds himself that it was two Russians and an American who first went up to that station. Years ago. He knows he presides over a powerhouse of talent. Russians with great ability in many fields. And yet, economically, Russia is in the shadows of America and now China. It is hard to stomach.
In his clearer moments, he recognizes that the world sees him as associated with brutality. Supporting the vicious Assad in Syria, for instance. The Generals in Myanmar. The repressive government of Maduro in Venezuela. And associates of his, with his consent, of course, have mercenary troops spreading through Africa, aiding in the coercion and subjugation of hundreds of thousands of people. All of that and yet, somehow, whatever the pain being inflicted, doesn’t keep him up at night. He sleeps soundly. How interesting the human mind, able to put things in separate spaces – boxes or compartments, call them what you wish – so that there is little spilling over between them. Ah, but enough of that introspection.
He has invaded his beloved Ukraine because it belongs to him, belongs to Russia, and whatever the costs to be paid he will pay them. His troops have acted quickly and decisively so there will be little chance for an armed resistance to make a difference. He will put Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky in a plane and send him to Poland, or Moldova. Anywhere but keep him in Ukraine. Let him blah blah all he wants about Putin in exile, but he will not set foot in Ukraine ever again.
He is surprised that Biden had the gumption to rally Europeans to oppose him. He likes that about him. Feisty. But he’s always liked feisty people. And then being able to outwit and dominate them. He pauses and swivels around in his chair. The mood pensive.
‘I grant that during my reign, I did not have the ability to free up the creativity and imagination of Russians… that’s just not me… but I did have the genius to develop a terrific armed force, to facilitate the development of an arms industry, and make Russians proud’.
He closes his eyes as he rubs his face softly. ‘Biden will not give in but neither will I. And I will drive my army all the way to the border with Romania, Moldova, Hungary and Poland. And scare the West… so Russians will be happy, like they were when we went into Crimea. As to the sanctions, I’m not worried. We will find ways around them. China will help, of course. They know they need me. Though now and then I will have to remind them I have lots more nuclear warheads than they do.’ He laughs.
‘In America, Trump likes me. How interesting. Something about my charismatic personality. I never imagined that would happen. I love it, of course. And when the next elections come around, well, I’ll think of something. Anyway, whether Trump gets reelected or not, sooner or later, an American president will be chosen who doesn’t care about Ukraine, and the sanctions will be lifted. Europe may complain but without American support, they will slowly yield. It will be their excuse to appease me. And all their presidents, chancellors and prime ministers will come to Moscow to endear themselves to me, to buy my oil and gas and wheat and aluminum and nickel and palladium, for we have it all, and get back to business as usual. But Ukraine will be mine.’
He leans over to the desk next to him and picks up a globe of the earth. He looks at the area where Ukraine is drawn. He taps on it and says, ‘how many men can boast that they redrew the boundaries of a country?’ And he laughs loudly. ‘I can see the title of an upcoming book by some writer, “Putin, the Conqueror”. Maybe even become a film.’ He laughs again.
Behind him, in the wall monitors facing his desk, Russian war planes fly over cities in Ukraine.
Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.
Mr Zelensky, president of Ukraine, recently stated publicly, after a meeting with chancellor Scholz of Germany, that perhaps Ukraine’s desire to one day become part of NATO was only a dream.
Dear sir, now, more than ever, Ukraine needs to embrace her dream.
When Russians are growling at your borders, baring their teeth and threatening to devour you with their superior forces, Ukraine needs to embrace her dream.
When many in the world have rushed supplies to you so you can fight the good fight, Ukraine needs to embrace her dream.
We don’t know how this will end, but there have already been thousands of courageous Ukrainians who have given their lives in combat because they believed in their country’s dream.
This is not the time to hesitate.
While your country remains divided, a majority have spoken up and said they want to chart their own course in history. They have stepped up and said they do not want to live under the feet of a bully neighbor.
I read that many of your citizens have chosen to no longer speak in Russian and so affirm the Ukrainian language.
Ukrainians and Russians have shared a past but Ukrainians reject being chained and oppressed by them and wish to embrace the future as a separate nation.
To forge ahead on this uncertain path, the nation needs to dream.
You should not, as their leader, in a moment of great consequence, succumb to doubt. Russia is forcing a course upon you. They are not asking but compelling you to obey them.
They say that they feel threatened. But the West nor you have threatened Russia. It is an invention of theirs to grab more territory. An invention of a leader who wants more and more land under his authority.
In the face of overpowering forces, it is the dream your people harbor that will sustain the hope to fight on. It is the dream that will fuel the resistance against the intruders.
Mr Zelensky, time is running out. It may be that you are now living the last days of your presidency.
Let your people know, on any occasion you have, that you stand with the dream of a free Ukraine. That you will fight for it, and never bow to anyone who wishes to decide for you what your future should be.
Sir, you owe it to yourself, to your nation and to your children.
Long live a free Ukraine.
Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net. anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.
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On Sunday, president Macron of France was quoted by a French newspaper as stating that he did not believe Russia’s goal was to seize Ukraine, but instead to ‘clarify the rules of cohabitation’ with NATO and the EU. He added that Russia had a right to seek security guarantees from the West.
But who is doing the threatening in Ukraine?
Who has encircled it with 130,000 troops?
Who annexed Crimea in 2014, biting off a huge chunk from Ukriane?
Who has fueled a war in the Donbas area in eastern Ukraine with cumulative deaths estimated to be 14,000 and counting?
The West is racing to help arm Ukraine with defensive weapons only, not the kind they could use to attack Russia. And the West is doing it so Ukrainians can put up a good fight when the Russian tanks start rolling and their airplanes start strafing their people.
Mr Macron’s need to seek attention seems to have outrun his common sense.
Maybe it’s the prospect of national elections later this year that is the key motivator.
Mr Macron went further. He stated that one of the models on the table was to make Ukraine like Finland during the Cold War with the Soviet Union, when the Finnish were allowed to remain ‘independent’ but they could not join NATO, and Russia was permitted to have ‘considerable influence over their political options.’
So the West allows Ukraine to be ‘considerably’ influenced by Russia?
Doesn’t that sound like betrayal?
To please Putin’s paranoia?
In another article, mention is made of a spokesperson for Russia’s Foreign Ministry, a woman declaring that the West was demonizing Russia, so as to take public attention away from their domestic crises, invest huge sums to arm ‘fragile democracies’ (as in Ukraine), and bolster an image of invincibility that has been weakened by the Afghanistan collapse.
But do we have political prisoners like you do?
What about releasing Alexei Navalny, whom you poisoned and nearly killed?
What about your branding every dissident organization you find upsetting, a terrorist one?
In democracies we sometimes elect people to govern us who are not fit, but we can throw them out at the end of their terms. You can’t do that. You’ve been stuck with Putin since 1999.
Yes, we parade every day our million flaws so that the whole world wonders how it is we still function.
But we do.
And we prosper.
Unlike Russia, where, with no free press, the citizenry is daily growing convinced that it is America who wants to invade them.
Quoted statements for this piece come from articles appearing in the New York Times on 2/7/2022. The reflections and judgments are my own.
Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net. anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts
Has been energetic and realistic. He has not looked at the 130,000 Russian troops amassed on Ukraine’s eastern flank and said to himself, ‘maybe they’ll go away.’
I understand that Biden’s characterizing such buildup as presaging an ‘imminent attack’ has unsettled Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, since the latter has his nation’s economy to manage, but to think that Russia’s military buildup is meant to merely kick off a war of nerves on Europe and America, is pure poppycock.
Putin wants to inflict harm on the West for what he sees as his diminished great power status, particularly in light of China’s rise.
Just 20 years ago China’s GDP was estimated to be $1.34 trillion while Russia’s was $306 billion. But in those two decades, China’s GDP has grown more than 13 times to become an $18 trillion economy while Russia’s has only gone up 5.5 times. (2021 figures)
So China has zoomed past Russia and left them wondering, ‘what the hell just went by?’.
To make matters worse, all this has happened while Putin has been in power. So it is a great embarrassment for him and his nation, to be seen by the rest of the world as having been outclassed by their neighbor.
It has got to hurt Putin.
In his moments alone he has to wonder what didn’t he do to better direct the course of Russia.
He wishes he had had the daring to accomplish, steal, connive, do whatever worked, to rise as the Chinese have.
But he didn’t.
Meanwhile, the longing to be in the spotlight doesn’t go away. So what better way than to invent a crisis and claim that the West is a threat to him.
President Biden has seen right through it. He has not dithered. He’s acted promptly and is making every effort to get an incredulous Europe to face the facts. That to be dependent on Russia for energy is a horrible idea, in light of Putin’s predatory history.
Europe has been steeped in denial, which leads to timidity and so favor the notion that the threat to Ukraine is mere bluffing.
Putin is a wounded and vengeful man, who cannot blame anyone but himself for not releasing the considerable powers of Russia to reach as high as they can. Had Russians been allowed to be part of a market economy that embraced political freedoms, Russia would now be a leading economy. But it didn’t happen.
The blame falls squarely on Vladimir Putin.
He cannot live with that truth so he invents threats, hounds, imprisons or poisons dissidents, stokes a resistance movement in eastern Ukraine that has cost 14 thousand lives so far.
Oh, yes, he has modernized his Army and now has supersonic missiles. And gas and oil and wheat to export, but the potential of Russia, under his power, has been wasted.
He can’t face that truth so why not demonize the West instead.
And when Biden stands firm, Putin then talks of the West ‘goading’ him into invading Ukraine. Or he gets Xi Jinping to send a Chinese official to tell the West to ‘calm down.’
No. There’s no time for that.
Putin’s threat is real.
President Biden has had the wisdom to face it and should not relent one bit in his stance to confront Putin.
And Putin should think of stepping down. He has done enough harm.
Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net. apple and google podcasts, anchor.fm and buzzsprout
One. He clearly sees the divisiveness in the West. Germany is ‘uncomfortable’ providing weapons to Ukraine, supposedly because they started WWII and they have all that angst weighing on them. But it must not weigh on Germans that much because they sell arms to Egypt which is run by a dictator. Oh, but they did contribute 500 helmets to the alliance’s efforts. Terrific. Never mind that thousands of Ukrainians are about to die to satisfy Putin’s ambitions.
Two. Putin controls the supply of natural gas to Europe, and Europeans are loath to inconvenience themselves with shortages. Businesses will put all manner of pressure on politicians to quickly submit to the great Putin. All the while saying, ‘Why, he just wants Russians to have a little more space to stretch.’
Three. Putin is convinced the sanctions the West will impose when Russia invades will not last because of the above.
Four. Russia’s economy gets support from China who, for now, will buy enough of their energy supplies to bolster their invasion of the Ukraine. In today’s papers, a senior Chinese official came out urging America to ‘calm down.’ As in, don’t get too excited, it’s just the Ukraine. Surely the Chinese statement was prompted by Biden’s decision to send troops to the border with Russia. Of course, China is all in for their ally Putin, and eager to disrupt the US-EU alliance.
Five. Putin doesn’t give a damn. He has little regard for human life. Remember the Malasyia Airliner Flight 17 shot down on July 17th 2014 as it flew near the Ukrainian-Russian border on its way to Kuala Lumpur? It was brought down by a Buk missile fired by Ukrainian dissidents and supplied by Russia. A Dutch-Australian investigation put the blame squarely on Russia but they denied any involvement. 283 passengers and 15 crew members were killed.
The good news today is that Putin was disappointed by the written response to his requests provided 2 days ago by the US-EU alliance. Good. The West is maintaining a firm stance and that is a strong deterrent. Still, for the reasons above, Putin will invade anyway. It’s his gift to the Russian people. ‘We will reestablish dominance over territories formerly in the Soviet Union and push westward.’
So it’s Biden, the leader of the Free World, against Putin, the leader of the Un Free World.
(China doesn’t have as many nuclear warheads as Russia and the US but it’s working on it)
Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net, apple and google podcasts and buzzsprout
Something about his inflated ego, courtesy of the docility of the majority of Russians who have tolerated his repressive rule.
The man has mobilized large numbers of soldiers and war materiel.
If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it’s a duck.
Putin has been further emboldened by the divisiveness he sees in the West, notably Germany and now Macron in France talking about the EU needing to formulate their own strategy, separate from the one of the alliance with the US.
An invasion of Ukraine would be a serious blow to the Free World. A country which has been urgently asking to join us in the West, being trampled on by a thug.
So far, about 14000 Ukrainians have died over the last few years in the Eastern section, as separatists supported by Putin challenge the democratically elected government in Kyiv.
But Russia wants more, regardless of the cost. They want the whole of the Ukraine. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 was not enough.
Putin believes he needs a war to ensure Russia’s security, but no one is threatening Russia. We, in the West, have plenty of problems to solve. Anyway, all they have is oil and gas but that can be had from elsewhere. The security crisis Putin speaks of is entirely his invention.
The US-EU alliance should not give in an inch to Russia.
And NATO should keep open the option for Ukraine and any other former Soviet nation to join them.
Any concession to Putin under threat of invasion is bad news. It would be read by the rest of the world, and China, as a sign of weakness.
We can’t afford it. Not now, not ever.
There are a lot of highly capable men and women presently strategizing how the West should proceed, but from a citizen’s point of view, it makes sense to put troops and materiel on the border with Russia. If you threaten us, we will respond.
And keep the troops there until he backs off, otherwise he’ll bring troops back and then we have to send them in again, making the West feel like a yo-yo.
The fact that Europe grew so dependent on Russia for their energy needs, i.e natural gas, speaks of a horrendous lack of foresight. Somehow, the EU did not factor in that a regime where a dictator has the boot on the throat of his people, with dissidents in jail or murdered, is likely to think they can push others around.
Putin’s repeated abuses in Ukraine were not given the importance they required. And because of it the current crisis has occurred.
Putin wants war. The West needs to act like it’s ready.
Blunt talk from our leaders is essential. We need to know where we stand.
I read that in Ukraine, president Zelensky is choosing to say to his people that things will be okay. To be patient. I disagree. Ukrainians need to hear the truth. Just like we do.
Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net. apple and google podcasts, anchor.fm and buzzsprout
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Putin is sitting at his desk in the Kremlin. He is alone.
‘So the head of the German navy said that Crimea (annexed forcefully by Russia in 2014) was “gone, it will never come back” and that I, Vladimir Putin, only wanted and “probably deserved respect”, and that it would be “low cost, even no cost” for the West to give me such support, in part because it needed Russia as a bulwark against China.’ (WSJ 1/22/2021)
Putin laughs.
‘Beautiful. I should send him a check. Just beautiful. And if that is the head of the Navy talking, then he reflects the opinions of many Germans in the armed forces. In other words, they’re acknowledging their weakness and their need for me and all Russians, to defend them from the Chinese. Never mind Ukraine, they can be sacrificed. They are expendable to keep me happy. To give me respect.’
He shakes his head slowly, still in disbelief at the comments from the German officer. Now a hint of a smile forms on his lips.
‘If I hadn’t put the pressure on them, the cracks wouldn’t have shown. I would never have guessed it… Vladimir Putin as a defender of the West. This is too much’.
He smiles broadly for a moment and then, leaning forward, hands clasped, his mood turns somber.
‘Ukraine is mine. The West cannot get consensus, and I’ll drive my army right through their doubts. And the sanctions they will impose, whatever they may be, they won’t work because they won’t last, because Germans will start complaining of how cold it gets after I turn off the natural gas they depend on me for. And they’ll start calling their prime minister pleading that he intervenes, that their factories cannot produce enough and they’re not making enough money. And they’ll beg that the government appeal to my generosity.
And the French will bitch that they can’t get enough croissants, and the Italians not enough pasta, and Macron and Draghi will call pleading for a meeting with me.
Or they’ll turn to America for help, but the Americans will say they can’t act without consensus – but nothing can get through their congress, and their people keep tearing each other apart over vaccinations, abortion, gun control, race, women’s rights, so how are they an example to anyone?
And all the while, I’ll be smiling, as I arrive in Kyiv at the head of my triumphant army, secure control of the country, appoint one of my devout followers to write a new pro Russian constitution, then take a well deserved vacation in Sochi, do some skiing, and plan my next move.
Life is beautiful. Yes, it is.’
He stands, crosses to the window, looks out.
‘What is the secret of my astounding success? Simple. My willingness to act. To repress dissent if necessary. To squash opponents if called for. Alexei Navalny will never rise to power while I’m alive. I’ll invent charges for him to die in prison.
And those I’ve sent into exile will die in exile.
But I do have to invigorate Russia’s economy. I must do that. My fellow Russians expect that from me. Trump said “America first. Well, I say Russians first”.
And to do that I will look to the Chinese system. It is much better than democracy.
Look at how fast they’ve risen. I’m envious of them. I recognize that.
But I don’t trust the Chinese, either.
They mesmerized America with the promise of riches. How can you explain that America has fallen behind in their production of microchips? In artificial intelligence?
The Chinese cast their spell and America relaxed. “Don’t worry, America, we have what you need,” they said, but the tags read “Made in China.” “We are making you money, isn’t that what you’re about?” And America nodded a little more, its belly growing in size, its robust quarterly reports in hand as it dozed off.
China smiled.
Then it struck. The South China Sea is ours. The Belt and Road initiative is on. We’re going after Taiwan. We’re conquering outer space on our own, never mind the International Space Agency, which you denied us entry to. And there we are.
Trump may have put America to sleep – in terms of their place in the world – but the trend was already there. Hubris. It will kill you.
Now it’s Russia’s turn. My turn.
And so this is only the beginning. For I will keep annexing territory. Little by little. The Baltic countries look like a good possibility. Little Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia. Who will go to war for them? No one. They are too small.
Then I expand. Poland would be a good one to catch. A fat little fish.
And again, who will go to war for Poland?
Not Germany. Not America.
In America they’ll say, ‘Wait, we’ve too many problems here at home, with our schools, immigration, racism, inequality, we need more time.’
‘Once upon a time they had fight in them. Now it’s gone. But they will still kneel before China to get their money.’
Putin laughs. Then the pensive and serious mood returns, eyes narrowed.
‘Ukraine is mine. Not just the East, but the whole country. It’s mine.’
Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net. apple and google podcasts and buzzsprout
He is alone in his private residence. He is standing by the window, looking out onto a beautiful forest covered with snow.
He has Ukraine surrounded by troops in the East, South East and in the north in Belarus. He knows the Ukrainians won’t be able to stop him, once he gives the order to invade.
He has enjoyed enormously being in the headlines, day after day, everyone talking about him. How will the world ever forget him? They cannot. He is now part of history. Forever. Immortal.
He rubs his chest lightly as he smiles.
He looks back at his desk, and the phone on it. He needs only to reach over, pick it up and order that his troops march into Ukraine. Just that, no more than that, and thousands of lives will cease to exist. Unless, of course, they all fall to their knees and beg for mercy.
What a life he has lived. So privileged.
Thinking to himself, he says, there is something so special about having so much power over people. So much power over the hapless Europeans who start shaking the moment he talks about holding back his supply of gas to them.
And he smiles when he thinks of his power to deceive, to persuade, to pressure. What talent!
‘Yes, I want to rebuild the Soviet Union. I want to have Russia be the number one power in the world. And I have the guns, the supersonic missiles that can get to Washington in 5 minutes. I have them.’
‘Sure they will retaliate, but I’m convinced my weapons are better. My resolve greater. My willingness to destroy unmatched.’
‘I have been able to bully others all my life. No one, no one at all, has bullied me back.’
And now he thinks of how he has no trouble sleeping. None at all. He puts his head on the pillow and wakes up refreshed 8 hours later. What a gift.
‘How can a man have so much power?’ he says to himself.
His eyes brighten. ‘I convinced others to give theirs to me, that’s why,’ and he laughs.
‘I convinced them that I would be their shepherd.’ He laughs again.
‘I do worry that I’ve caused lasting damage to my fellow Russians… that my being in power so long has led to an atrophy of their will to be. I do worry. But I won’t live forever, so they’ll have other people govern them. Meanwhile, I will rule this land as I wish and die in power, like Stalin did. President for life. What a charmed life. People will write and write things about me, like some hapless blogger is surely doing just this moment, trying to imagine what goes through my unique mind. But they won’t come even close. There has never been anyone in the world like me. No one. And I will continue to sharpen my cyberwarriors to undermine my enemies. One after the other. They will get so good at it that I will decide elections in other countries.’
He turns around and takes a few steps to sit at his desk. His phone is within arm’s length.
‘I can pick up that phone right now, order the invasion, and all the world’s attention will be on me, on my next moves. Europe will tremble with fear. America will squirm, Xi Jinping worry about what I’ll do next.’
He crosses his legs and brings his hands together interlacing his fingers.
‘I can see the headlines all over the world… “Russia Invades the Ukraine. Troops within reach of Kyiv.” “The Russian leader speaks of Lebensraum. More living space for Russians.” “Germany and Europe Panic”
He laughs.
‘Oh, I’m a genius. Yes. And right now, other world leaders are simply envious of me. But they can’t stop me. They don’t know how. Worse, they won’t dare.’
He rubs his face.
‘I enjoy seeing the world scared of what I can do. What pleasure that gives me.’
‘Ha! And Russians will celebrate me. And I will destroy completely all those who’ve dared oppose me here in my land. I’ll simply get rid of them.’
‘This will be the century of Vladimir Putin. I am now 69 and will govern for another 31 years, and all the while the world will be in awe of my powers.’
‘And next will be Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland. And no one will stop me, no one has the guts to stop me.’
‘I can live with fear… yes… and know how to stare it down… but so few people can.’
He pauses, holding his hands locked in front of him.
‘It’s up to me… and only to me… I alone choose the fate of thousands of people… hundreds of thousands… millions…’
He reaches over to the phone but hesitates… and hangs his head for a moment.
Then, raising it slowly… eyes narrowed as he looks off… the expression determined… fearless,
he says, softly,
‘Do I invade today or tomorrow?’
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Oscar Valdes 