oscar valdes

China and the US

We’re now in the thick of a struggle with China. A struggle for economic and technological primacy.
China has proved itself a formidable opponent. One that challenges us to the core, which is good for us.
Competition, with all its problems, has the advantage of pushing us to perform as best we can.
Unless we go to war, the likelihood is that this contest will last a long time.
Russia, for all its chest thumping in Ukraine and elsewhere, is not really part of this contest. They would like to be but, until they rid themselves of Putin and choose a different kind of leadership, they will remain a second level participant.
But back to China and the US.
This contest asks of us, which is the better social organization that can elicit the greater productivity from its citizens?
We both are presently thinking the social organization we presently have is the best one. But that is now in question.
China has shown a great deal of inventiveness and capacity for hard work. They acknowledged they needed to open themselves to other nations to promote internal prosperity, then did so and leaped forward in a spectacular manner in just 40 years. They have been called the factory of the world. Mastering the new information, they put it in their service.
Their social organization managed the transition effectively.
But will that same organization be able to address the complexities of the new environment they have created?
Recently we’ve seen how the political leadership, in the interest of ‘managed prosperity’, has inserted themselves in the governing of businesses and large conglomerates. My bet is that this approach will backfire and reduce the efficiency needed to compete.
The impulse of government to meddle in the running of successful businesses is ever present. We see attempts to do so here in America too, but in the end prove consistently detrimental to the creative and competitive impulse.
It will take time for the Chinese to acknowledge that flaw. The reason is their limits on free speech and the consequent drowning of critical voices.
We, in contrast, enjoy free speech, but are falling short on the discipline that must go with it.
How come, for instance, we’ve allowed ourselves to fall behind in the production of advanced semiconductors and so become dependent on a factory in Taiwan, which lies so close to China?
It is inexcusable. And it didn’t happen overnight.
Too many voices in America? No. We need them all. But we must be diligent in the setting of priorities and that’s a task for enlightened leadership.
Creativity is intimately connected to free speech. We need them both for ideas to fully flourish.
And while China continues to steal technology from the West, it is astonishing to see how they will not acknowledge the connection that makes it happen.
They know they have been enriched by trade with the West but are not willing to try and imitate the social and economic conditions that lead to such products, preferring to foist on the Chinese people a controlling system designed to preserve the elite’s political power at all costs.
To see China today, is to see a nation taking advantage of material advances but shrinking from their responsibility to mature politically.
The problem with immature political systems is that they turn violent on a whim. As is the sad case of Putin and Ukraine today.
Both China and Russia stand as examples of leadership manipulating their citizens.
As such they both should be subjects of study for all us here in America, since we also have witnessed recent serious attempts to manipulate us into believing false ideas.
Such study will show us how much we have got right and how much that can go wrong if we’re not on our game.
I would not want to live in any other political system than the one we have, but there is no doubt that we are a work in progress.
Democracy is a fragile affair, easily undermined by those whose main interest is their personal power.
Vigilance should be constant, and the journey worth every fight.

A quick aside:
On my way back home the other day, I saw a man standing at a corner holding an umbrella. I went up to him and said, ‘You’re making a statement with that umbrella.’
‘I am?’ he replied, amused.
‘Yes. You’re telling us that men also have sensitive skins.’
He laughed.

Good Night

Oscar Valdes, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple an google podcasts

A Military Solution to an Economic Problem

The news today is not uplifting.
Russia continues to gain against Ukraine in the Eastern regions, is now targeting grain terminals in Ukraine’s port of Mykolaiv (WSJ) to damage the country’s food exports, is increasing cyberattacks on the western alliance (WSJ), while Turkey goes on obstructing Finland and Sweden’s push for NATO membership (NYT).
Meanwhile, the growing costs of inflation have spread widely and the rise in interest rates is slowing down the economy globally, all of which weakens the collective resolve of western nations to support Ukraine.
How long before Ukraine stops getting what it needs and is then trounced by Russia?
Not long.
Not all countries in the EU have contributed equally to the war effort, Germany and France underperforming significantly, yet public shaming seems to go only so far.
Nations are protesting they have limits.
If we keep going at this pace, Russia will devour Ukraine. And everyone watching will shake their heads and say, ‘what a shame… but really… there’s only so much we can do. Now we just hope they won’t invade us. So let’s be nice to Putin and the Russians.’
Something like that.
Do we want to live that way?
Hell, no!
If we do so, it amounts to a grand failure of leadership.
We started out giving much support to Ukraine but have not gone all the way.
Hasn’t Ukraine’s courage earned them the right to get all the arms they need?
Do we allow all their suffering and lives lost to be in vain?
Judging by the increasing protests of western nations, their economic concerns with the soaring price of energy, there is not much time left to act decisively.
So the time to give Ukraine all they need is now. That may not assure a victory but it will say we did all we could.
The slowing of the support given to Ukraine is a veiled effort to ask them to give up.
But they will not. It is their land and they won’t have it.
Which then throws it back in our face.
Ukraine will go all the way, help or no help from the West.
Are we expecting them to die in the battlefield and then live with the notion that we didn’t do all we could? That we didn’t give them the proper weapons?
The idea that our giving Ukraine fighter jets to push back Russia is going to trigger a nuclear war is a farce.
Putin may well be infuriated by it but we are as well armed as Russia and China combined.
Acting decisively now by giving Ukraine all they need is allowing ourselves the chance of victory.
Once victorious, sanctions should be lifted partly or completely, and the world economic crisis will begin to resolve.
The sanctions have been only modestly effective and there is no way we can influence China and India to stop buying Russian oil. Why, even western nations are asking for exemptions from the sanctions on one or another commodity.
We’re too interdependent to cut things off quickly and expect a powerful result. That will take time to plan.
But a military victory today is possible. Which will then permit the lifting of sanctions.
For us not to push for a military victory is a failure of courage.
It is saying we allowed Putin to frighten us.
Today, we stand awash in over caution, while letting Putin throw at Ukrainians everything he has.
Let us act now, damn it!
We should not back away from this confrontation without the sense that we gave it our best. And our best is to arm Ukraine to the fullest, short of nuclear weapons.
Ukrainians are saying to us, here we give our lives, helps us!
Who in recent history has said that loudly for all the world to hear?
No one.
So let us act.
Putin should not be allowed to intimidate us.
He needs to be confronted now.

Note to Mr Biden.
You’re heading out to the Middle East in the days to come. Word is that you’re expected to meet with MBS (Muhammad Bin Salman) who, our intelligence agencies have determined, is responsible for the murder of journalist and Washington Post contributor Jamal Khashoggi in October 2018 after he entered the Saudi Arabian consulate in Ankara, Turkey. He had been publicly critical of the Saudi regime.
I understand that Saudi Arabia can play a role in stabilizing the tensions in the region and is willing to ally with us to counter Iran’s threats.
As our president you need to look at the big picture.
But that does not mean you have to bow to that nation’s leadership. It sends a bad signal.

Oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.

Parenting. Power. Envy

Being a parent implies we guide our child as they take their first steps into the world.
We brought them in so we owe it to them.
It is a journey with an uncertain destination which makes it the more unique.
Here’s my take on it.
Guide the child in the direction of their finding their own power.
It’s in them somewhere.
They just have to find it.
We can’t do it for them but we can have a hand in guiding them there.
They will need all their power because the world can be a rough place to be in.
Nature endows each one of us with a set of abilities. Helping the child connect to those abilities early on helps them find a reliable source of joy to offset the inevitable disappointments and failures.
At the start every child is a big question.
Yet what lies in them, when expressed, will have the capacity to dazzle, invent or soothe, discover or comfort, and so open the way for humanity’s betterment.
We have a huge role to play in facilitating the process.
Conversations with observant teachers, or anyone who interacts with the child, can be enlightening, for as the child is exposed to different situations their abilities will begin to reveal themselves.
Some abilities may not manifest themselves early on because they need time to mature, but so long as the child is experiencing moments of joy in exploring their world, sooner or later they will move toward something dear to them and which hard challenges they will endure.
Exposing the child to our interests is desirable, but they should not be imposed on the child.
Interests that flow freely are the ideal.
As we journey with our child we will come across envy. It is part of living, since nature scatters her gifts widely and entirely at her discretion, giving more to some and less to others.
The world being so competitive, envy is part of our daily existence.
Parents have a great deal to say as to how envy is addressed and managed.
We should not shy from calling it what it is.
Envy, the ‘painful or resentful awareness of an advantage enjoyed by another, joined with a desire to possess the same advantage’ (Merriam-Webster’s) is a powerful emotion that is seldom mentioned.
Think back on your own upbringing. How often was the word or sentiment expressed?
And yet it was often the source of conflict, hidden or manifest. Introducing it in our daily vocabulary becomes essential.
We learn to live with it by looking it in the eye, accepting it, then telling ourselves, ‘whatever the other has that I don’t have is their power. They found it. It is theirs. I must respect that. In turn I must focus on finding my own power. As I do I will better manage my resentment, and not let it fill me with hatred.’
If we say that, then we will be back on our own journey to find what gives us the most satisfaction.
We’re on the right path if what we’re doing is making us stronger and wiser. That goes for both parent and child.
Keep doing what makes us stronger and wiser and we stand a good chance of finding personal peace, while exciting our ambitions and capacity to love.
Our children can’t live our lives for us. It is up to every one of us.
It’s critical for the parent not to be envious of their children. Not to stand in their way.
Their course in life is for them to set.
We guide, encourage, assist, nurture, because that’s the agreement we entered when we brought them into this world.
And yet the process affects the parent, too.
The more a parent endeavors to recognize their own abilities and follow their own path, the more respectful they will be of the abilities of the child they brought into this world.
To parent a child is to learn to better parent ourselves. Overcome the deficits we’ve had to live with and work with what nature gave us.

Envy, release me from your hold,
Let my powers grow bold,
For as they do, my freedom soars.

Oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

Putin on The Way It Is

The war rages on – almost 4 months now – inflation is hurting the world economy – food shortages are forecast – while Putin gloats in Moscow, ‘I made this happen,’ he says proudly.
‘I command the world’s attention. This is my moment. I have killed and killed Ukrainians and still millions and millions of people adore me and hold me up as a model. People in China, in India and all those smaller, peripheral countries destined to never amount to anything.
All the while China and I have a lock on the United Nations. Interesting organization… yes… and toothless, too. A place where every country can come in and blah blah blah until they run out of spit but where Russia and my great ally China hold veto power in the security council. So if we say no, then it is no. Never mind the secretary general. Without us he’s nothing.
The West talked about sanctions. I laugh. I have worked around them. I keep selling my oil and gas and our profits are growing.
And I have done it all because I know how to scare people.
I say I have nuclear weapons and most leaders pee in their pants, run around in circles crying, oh no, he will fire his nuclear weapons!
Don’t confront him, he’s dangerous, please, he cannot be humiliated!
Poor things. Afraid of a little inflation. Afraid of protests because the price of gasoline has gone up. I laugh. I would send the fire department with their water cannons to hose them down and wash them off the street and into the gutters, and those who insist on protesting I’d throw in a dungeon. That’s how you govern. And to be sure, Russians love my style. The want to be like me. Ha!
On this war, America started out with enthusiasm, with determination, but now they’ve lost their oomph. Now they’re back to their citizens complaining about the price of gas and how they don’t know any Ukrainians and how they’re so far away and what’s in it for them.
Of course, that’s when true leaders come in and set the record straight. Tell the complainers what needs to be done and why and enough with the whimpering. But they can’t do it. So it’s my game, all the way until I conquer all of Ukraine. All of it, damn it. All of it. And I’ll have Zelensky tried on charges of crimes again humanity. I’ll do it because no one will stand in my way.
What a joke the West is. Promising missiles and this and the other. But it takes them forever to deliver. Meanwhile I gain more and more ground. I love it. Before long I’ll have all of Ukraine’s eastern region under my foot. Beautiful. Then we’ll finish off occupying all their coast. Then back to Kyiv. Then push West, all the way to the borders with Poland and Rumania, scare them and their NATO bullshit.
I’m making the world my world. Slowly. This is the start of Putin’s world. And I’ve done it not with diplomacy but with bravado. With daring. With guts. With flair.
While the mighty West shits in their pants.’

He laughs.

Now, if I were them… from the very start I would’ve said, Putin, you can’t do it. Don’t do it. You’ll be sorry. Look, we have intelligence telling us you’re going to invade. We’re going to give planes and missiles to Ukrainians so they can defend themselves. We won’t let you slaughter them. Don’t do it.
But I can see how Ukrainians had not yet proven themselves on the battlefield. But they have now, so what’s the excuse to not give them all they need to fight me?
What’s amazing in their story, is they’re willing to fight so hard for what they believe. That’s what’s amazing. I would love to have them on my side instead.
The reason Ukraine is so important today is just that… the show of commitment in defense of what you believe.
But the world is not getting it. The French and Germans are not getting it.
The Poles, on the other hand, have got it. From the very start.
In fact the French and Germans seem to be in a hurry to sit down to negotiate a deal to cease hostilities. And Macron wants France to be the mediator. Works for me, since Macron doesn’t want me to be ‘humiliated’ but if I were Zelensky, I’d choose the Poles to be the negotiators. Doesn’t matter to me that much who it is because in the end, if it’s not going my way, I’ll get up and leave and start shooting and bombing again.
One of my greatest achievements, of course, is to have convinced Europe that they could rely on me for all their energy needs. Convinced them that I was not just a nice bear, but a teddy bear. And they fell for it. Mind you, all this time I have been teaming up with Assad in Syria to slaughter their opposition, so it’s not like I was hiding anything. We’re Europeans, not Syrians, it won’t happen to us, they told themselves. We’re so chic. Oh, so cultured. So distinguished. So unique. Oh, dear, you name it. Until it happened. Denial is the word for it.

He laughs.

I was born for this moment. As far as China is concerned, they’re stuck with me. Who else are they going to turn to? India? No. They can’t stand each other. China doesn’t have anywhere near the nuclear warheads I have, and I’ll keep close tabs on them. I’m going to keep building even more, and if they start to pile them up, too, I’ll give Xi a courtesy call, say Xi, you can’t keep building so many warheads. Look, we’ve been good friends but you got a whole lot more people than I have… so you could run me over… but so long as I have more weapons, you’ll have to chill. So please stall on the building of nuclear weapons. I know your politburo designated you a ‘historical figure’, but that’s the way it is.
And they will do as I say because, in a confrontation between the two of us, they don’t have a chance. I have the upper hand and will keep it that way’
Life is beautiful… yes, indeed.
As to the next American elections, haven’t made up my mind whom to campaign for, using my team of cyber experts. Not Trump, though. I think his time has passed. I liked him. But now I need someone with even deeper isolationist sentiments. Someone who wants to isolate into oblivion. Build a wall in the South, in the North, East and West. The more chances for Russia and my buddy Xi, to go deeper into Africa, South America, the Middle East, the rest of Asia.

Pause

But what could America do to counter me at this time’
Give planes to Ukraine? More missiles? Sure. But what they should do yet I know they won’t because they don’t have the nerve, is to make a commitment to Ukraine and say, we will give you anything you need, planes, missiles, anything – except troops, of course – because we want you to win. And if in the end you don’t win, we’ll settle for whatever land you were able to defend, and we’ll help with negotiations, even the lifting of sanctions on Russia and so on, and we’ll do what we say we will, because with your heroism, you have behaved like no other nation in recent history… and so earned a place in our hearts and minds. Forever.’

Please see Ifw-Kiel.de. Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Ukraine Tracker

Oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

Denial. The Power of It

Photo by Melanie Wupperman on Pexels.com

A while back, when working in a prison, I interviewed a young man who had arrived to serve a short sentence. At one point during our session I asked him about his parents and he said his father had died recently.
‘What happened?’
‘He had a heart attack.’
‘Had he been ill?’
‘No. He worked out all the time.’
‘Sorry to hear that. Did he go to the doctor?’
‘No, he didn’t.’
‘Why not?’
‘He didn’t see a need for it. He said he felt great.’
Pausing, he lowered his head for a moment. And I could sense the sadness in him as he reflected on the loss.
A couple of days ago I read an article in the Economist (6/11 edition) about the contest for the Senate in the state of Pennsylvania. John Fetterman, the state’s lieutenant governor and democratic candidate had suffered a stroke before the primary. It was later revealed by his campaign that he had a preexisting cardiomyopathy and though he was not feeling well, ‘he had been leery of seeing his doctor.’
Sad.
I once knew a man who was diabetic. He had been well controlled, was married and shared a bed with his wife. He knew he had to check his feet, which comes with being diabetic. But he didn’t. Then one day he discovered an area that had not been getting enough circulation. It was too late. He had to have the leg amputated below the knee.
And then there are the lucky ones. I read an article in a newspaper a year ago or so (WSJ or NYT) describing an incident at a hockey game. One of the coaches had a lesion in the back of his neck. In the audience sat a woman who had been trained to spot such lesions. She worked at a health care facility. From where she sat she saw the lesion in the man’s neck and got to wondering, does he know he has what he has?
She approached him at intermission and got his attention. Was he aware of the lesion?
What lesion?
So she took a look at it on the spot and said to him he needed to have himself checked right away.
He did. It was a melanoma, a deadly skin cancer.
The likelihood is he did know he had it and didn’t think much of it. But he got lucky.
Denial – the refusal to admit a truth or reality (Merriam-Webster’s) is a powerful force yet easily ignored, until it’s too late.
It is present in all areas of life, health, work, politics, finances etc. and requires the awareness that it exists to counter it. We’re all vulnerable to experience it and have already.
Last year, at Surfside, in Miami, Fla. a condominium building collapsed. People knew there were problems with the building but chose to ignore them. ‘Too costly,’ thought many – maybe they will go away. Of course. Until it was too late.
In politics – the European Union believed they could keep relying on Putin and Russia for their energy needs. No, the great Russian leader would never slaughter a neighbor country, they told themselves. Until he did.
As we speak, there still are those, even in high ranking posts, who say it will all blow off.
There are a lot of bright people in that European Union, but denial gets everyone. Unless you’re on your game.
Of course, there are just so many things we can give our attention to. But if the matter is deemed important yet must be deferred, let’s make a note of it. So it won’t go away.
Because the mind can trick us. All of us. Smart and not so smart.
Again and again.

Oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

This is the Moment to Act

Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve Bank raised the nation’s interest rate by .75 bps. Forecast had it that the figure would be either 0.5 or 0.75.
Markets went up after the news but today lost all the gains and are back down to where they were before the announcement.
To the extent that financial markets anticipate the state of the economy, the news is not good. We’re heading downhill.
The Federal Reserve may have been too aggressive, particularly since the markets had been heading down steadily. The bank’s chairman, Jerome Powell, had talked of a soft landing as he raised rates but instead gave in to the hawkish wing of the bank that pushed for the 0.75 hike.
Now think of how different things could be if we were winning the war instead?
Vastly different.
Optimism would fuel the markets and we would feel much more positive about being able to prevent a recession.
If only we were doing what we should be doing.
Macron, Scholz and Draghi (from France, Germany and Italy) met today with Zelensky, Ukraine’s president.
The public statements of the officials are all for supporting Ukraine’s fight for independence, but what happens behind close doors is likely very different.
For one, neither Germany nor France have delivered the heavy equipment Zelensky has called for.
Instead they are likely pushing for Zelensky to settle. To negotiate with Russia, to agree to terms.
Both Macron and Scholz would love to see themselves as the grand negotiators that brought the warring parties to the table. They may be already dreaming of the Nobel prize they’d be sharing for bringing peace to the region.
Zelensky should not give in.
Macron and Scholz are telling Zelensky, ‘look, inflation is hurting us badly. We have done enough. You need to think of compromising. We can’t get all we want in life, so give in a little.’
Zelensky should not give in.
The real problem with inflation is the war.
Russia has been able to circumvent the sanctions and managed to sell a good deal of its oil. They are filled with cash and confident that they’ll keep finding ways to do so.
Today I read that Russia has now cut back further on their gas supplies to Europe. The squeeze is on.
So why isn’t Zelensky and Ukraine getting all the help they need?
Because many nations in the western bloc are chickening out.
Surely there are real life obstacles to delivering the heavy equipment needed but if you’re dragging your feet then you’re chickening out. Then you’re saying, ‘Putin is really scary, he’s out of control, he just might target us. Oh, no. What will we do if that happens?’
The real problem with today’s inflation is the war.
Yes, it has to end, but not without first giving Ukraine all they need to fight back and that should include war planes.
Otherwise Ukraine should not negotiate with a killer who has butchered their nation.
Mr Biden, I’m not letting you off the hook.
I’m sure you were told in detail of Macron, Scholz and Draghi’s mission. Do not be a party to that weaklings’ effort.
Step up, do not back down now.
You’ve been courageous until now, but this is not over and not the time to call it quits.
This is a unique moment in our history, indeed, the world’s history.
We can’t let the bully win.
Ukraine wants to fight till the end. How often do you hear that from a nation?
Ukrainians who left are returning to their land in the middle of the war. It takes guts to do that.
If you do not fully back Ukraine you will lose your presidency. Period. But back Ukraine with all they need and your standing will be exceptional.
Damn it, make the difficult choice! You’ve been there before. Don’t join with the appeasers.
See, even if Ukraine doesn’t beat back Russia, if they get all the equipment they need they would have fought an exceptional battle. We haven’t seen anything like this since WWII.
It is your turn to shine, Mr Biden. Take the chance. Don’t back down.
Putin can be beat. He will not trigger WWIII. He won’t because he’s not crazy and has a lot to lose. But he’s good at scaring people and has been getting away with it.
Don’t let him scare you, too.
He’s already got Macron and Scholz in his back pocket.
This is your moment, Mr Biden, win or lose, this is your moment. Don’t flinch. Go forward.

Oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.

Mr Biden. Sell us the Story of Ukraine. Now

Photo by Kostiantyn Stupak on Pexels.com

Yes, sell it to the American public. Sell it now. In this century there is no story as compelling as theirs.
Take the bull by the horns. Do not underestimate the capacity of the American public.
Maybe diehard isolationists will blow you off, but the majority will not. When they go to the pump and see the high price tag, they just might think, ‘we’re doing it for Ukraine. A sister nation that is being massacred, not just pushed around, but massacred by Vladimir Putin, the man you rightly called ‘a killer, a war criminal’. No other leader had the guts to call Putin that. You did.
So, please, concentrate your efforts. We need you now more than ever.
Putin has been trying to scare us with the threat of a nuclear war. We cannot afford to be scared into inaction. Cannot afford to let his threat of firing his nuclear weapons keep us from arming Ukraine with the best weapons we have.
You have placed the restriction of not sending in American troops. I agree with that.
But Ukrainians urgently need to have war planes to stop the wholesale destruction Putin is inflicting on their people and push Russians back and out of their land.
A while ago Poland stepped up and offered to give Ukrainians Mig jets, aircraft Ukrainians are familiar with and so could put to use right away.
Poland was right. The Polish people have distinguished themselves for the enormous assistance they have provided in the war effort. Unlike Germany or Hungary.
The story of Ukraine is unique. Sell it to us, Mr Biden.
There are no assurances Ukraine, even with all the war planes we give them, will beat back Russia, but they will put up a fight unlike anything we’ve seen.
So let us help them now.
Giving Ukraine war planes will anger Putin. He will cry out loud that he has weapons he can fire at us. But so do we. He is not crazy. He and Russia has everything to lose in this confrontation but so far, he has got the upper hand because he has made us fearful.
There is no room for that.
Arm Ukraine fully, Mr Biden. Do it now. We will not regret it.
Ukraine is not a distant nation anymore. With the blood they have poured on the battlefield they have become one of us.
Mr Biden, go in front of the cameras and tell us their story. Again and again. If you are fearing that inflation is going to beat the democratic party in November, think of Ukraine’s story and their possible victory as providing the momentum to help democrats win instead.
Stand up for Ukraine fully and the American people can put the inflation woes in context.
You have the courage.
This is a unique opportunity to shine, Mr Biden. Do not let it pass. You will regret it dearly if you do.
By the way. I think it was Putin who came up with the idea that if we helped Ukraine, we would be seen as co combatants. So be it. We should not let that stop us.
As far as your upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia is concerned, I understand that you’re doing it in the interest of our nation benefitting from their oil producing capacities. But as our representative, please do not bow to them.
Not only do they not deserve it but bowing is a bad habit to get into. We should bow to no one. King, Queen, God, Pope, whatever.
We are a creative and industrious people who are not afraid of hard work.
Trust us. We are behind you. Lead us.

Good luck

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.

Putin Explains the War

Putin speaks to journalists in Moscow.

Putin – I may seem calm outside, but I’m suffering inside. The war has impacted me greatly.
The only solace I get is from my religious conviction. The belief that I’m doing the right thing.
I went to the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church and asked, is the war justified? And he said, yes. And from that moment on I’ve had no more doubts.
We are fighting for a better world. I am convinced of it.
I see all the destruction caused by our weapons in Ukraine, the lives lost, and at first I am deeply saddened… but then I remind myself that the dead have gone to a better place, a place where there is eternal comfort… so the ache in my heart is soothed.
And I remind myself I am a humble servant of God.
It is not easy to be a world leader. I have to constantly deal with the envy of others, people dissatisfied with their lives who worship the false god of freedom.
And so it was that I became alarmed when Ukraine began to speak loudly and aggressively of their desire for freedom.
They are a courageous people, Ukrainians are, I grant that, but they have lost their way in the world.
At first I thought it was a passing infatuation, seduced by decadent Americans, but then I realized that they had truly abandoned the path to heaven.
Freedom is not the path to heaven but the path to perdition.
Then Ukraine began insisting they wanted to join NATO, and then I realized they had crossed the line and had left me with no option. For how can Russia allow itself to have a NATO loving country so close to Moscow, to St Petersburg?
No. I would not have that.
Fortunately, through great sacrifice and determination, we had prepared for such possibility and built great weapons and a strong army.
It was not an easy choice to invade Ukraine, for I knew we would anger Americans and the West. But I reminded myself of our obligation to help people who have lost their way.
Why is freedom so toxic to humanity?
Because it does not respect the natural order of things. So people get confused and then frustrated and then turn to violence. Violence against anyone who disagrees with them.
Life in America today is filled with chaos. Nearly everyone can own a gun and nearly everyone does. And they fire them when they are upset.
By contrast, here in Russia we have a sense of order. And it is my task to make sure it stays that way. That is my duty to God and to all of you.
Respect for the natural order of things help us live a better life.
If I had allowed Ukrainians to follow their path to perdition and freedom, they would have set a terrible example for the rest of Russia. I could not accept it.
But it is not only us in the world who have embraced the belief that God is our guide to govern ourselves. Other nations have done so, too.
China, for instance, although they have no traditional religion, they have come to accept that government doctrine is their religion, and under the exemplary leadership of Xi Jinping, they have done remarkable things in a short time. Do they sacrifice free speech? Yes. But look at all they get in return. Stability. Pride. Honor. Prestige.
So, too, with us.
We now have an alliance with China. Together, we will one day soon rule the world. And America and the West will bow to us.
The war with Ukraine, as painful as it may seem, is a necessary step to the success of our system.
China now understands clearly what they need to do to annex Taiwan. We have shown them the way. And Russia will support them when they make the move, just like they have supported us in our invasion of Ukraine.
Today, I predict the end of the West as we know it.
Our conquest of Ukraine will have far reaching consequences. It will tell all nations that Russia and China have the discipline, the capacity and ambition to rule the world. And that such world will a better one.
The notion of freedom that America and the West embrace is a sinful notion. What we in Russia and China have, instead, honors humanity and its noblest yearnings.
The war in Ukraine is a battle for the hearts and minds of mankind.
That we are winning tells it all… if God had been with America and the West, they would have seen clearly what help Ukrainians needed and not hesitated to give it. But they did not. Instead, America and the West remain confused and divided.
God took sides… and chose us.
Thank you

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

The War. The Economy. Our Psyches

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The war has had a profound effect on inflation.
One is the obvious impact that sanctions on Russia have had on the energy markets with shortages raising prices everywhere.
Another is the lingering supply chains snarls generated by the pandemic, now worsened by the conflict.
And then there’s the enormous effect on our psyches. The corrosive effect of seeing the count of dead people grow, buildings destroyed, lives wrecked.
When will it end?
How much more pain will be inflicted?
Now we are beginning to suspect Russia will not be pushed back and out of Ukraine.
We are beginning to suspect that Russia will subdue and demolish it. With impunity and the whole world watching.
If Putin wins, we will have to worry about his future behavior and how it emboldens China’s quest for dominance.
Putin may be tempted to invade another country. Tiny Moldova, for instance, sitting on the southwest border with Ukraine, where Russian separatists already occupy the Transnistria region.
How long will the sanctions against Russia be kept?
The cumulative effect of these factors is not only weighing on markets but on our minds.
Central banks are raising interest rates. Companies’ forecast for earnings are decreasing while the price of stocks plummet and plummet.
Uncertainty and more uncertainty.
Can anything be done about it? Or do we watch impotently?
There is something unsettling about feeling a lack of control.
We were recovering from the pandemic, which we knew would be difficult anyway,
and then Putin chose to start his war. And his war became everybody’s war.
Nations have taken sides and the world has divided into two camps.
The United Nations has become an impotent body. Russia, the grand aggressor, holds veto power in the Security Council, as does China, rendering that distinguished body ineffective.
With energy prices rising and rising, the possibility of a recession grows greater and so does the chance of a depression.
But can anything be done to change the present course of events?
We have two options before us.
In one, we do nothing. And Putin wins, the world cements its divisions and the economy goes into a long slowdown.
In the other, we fight back. We challenge Putin. And we do it now.
Public figures like Henry Kissinger and Emmanuelle Macron have come forward in favor of accommodation, Kissinger stating that there’s a role for Russia (a role depriving others of their freedom?) and Macron saying that we have to learn to live with Russia (why?).
But those statements sound weak when a nation like Ukraine is willing to offer its people in battle, when they have already sacrificed thousands upon thousands of men and women, for the sake of their freedom from the Russian boot.
They cry of the Ukrainian people keeps piercing our minds, the pain of their agony keeps intruding into our daily lives, ‘Help us,’ they cry, ‘Give us the weapons to defend ourselves!’
And we have, to some extent.
But not enough.
The war has changed our minds and hearts since it started on February 24th.
Back then we didn’t know how courageous a nation could be.
Ukraine’s is a lesson for the entire world.
Short of nuclear weapons, they have earned the right to get all the assistance the West can provide.
They have earned it with their blood.
Macron of France, was quoted as saying that it would take years and years, maybe 15 for Ukraine to become part of NATO. How wrong can that man be?
There are just so many Ukrainians to die in defense of their land, of their right to be free.
We in the West, those willing to do so, need to do all we can to assist them now.
History will record which nations chose not to help, but that’s for them and their conscience to settle. For now, it’s those willing to go all out that need to step forward and make a full commitment to the freedom of Ukraine.
And that means a willingness to challenge Putin.
If Ukraine falls even though they got all the help we could give them, so be it.
But our consciences will be at peace, that in the hour of need, we didn’t cringe or surrender to our fears, but stepped front and gave our full support to a courageous people.
Ukraine’s fight is telling the world, ‘this is what is needed to step up and say We are Free’ while Russians and Chinese, and the rest of the subjugated people in our world, watch with admiration, envy and remorse.
This is the time to go all out for Ukraine.
Or we’ll have to live with the regret of not supporting those who deserve it.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

Putin on Intimidation and Biden

A group of high ranking officials and generals have gathered in an ample room below ground in a bunker in Moscow. Seated in rows and files they face Putin at the front, who addresses them.

Putin – After a slow start, owing to a few mistakes we made, we are now winning the war in Ukraine.

His audience gives a warm applause.

Putin – And we are winning because we have used intimidation successfully.

Nods and murmurs of approval from the audience.

Putin – Intimidation requires persistence. And so I keep reminding the West that we have nuclear weapons… I say so again and again… implying that I’m willing to fire them… at any moment… and so abruptly end their decadent lives.
Americans and the West compare themselves with our country and say, ‘Russia is much less wealthy than we are. We have more to lose than they do.’
Exactly. And so I keep repeating, ‘We have nuclear weapons.’
It’s working.
We have been sanctioned economically, which hurts, but we still manage to exploit the cracks in the system and sell our oil and other resources. China and India have been most cooperative and so our coffers are full. In consequence, we have been able to lower our interest rates.
True, we are dependent on the West for parts for some industries, including the military, but the black market will continue to help us counter the sanctions, at least for a while, which gives us time to push for the complete occupation of Ukraine.

Warm applause.

Putin – The defeat we are about to inflict on America will be decisive. We are slowly degrading their morale, exposing the fact that they cannot present a united front consistently. Germany’s indecisiveness keeps undermining the alliance and so with our friends the Hungarians. Meanwhile, Macron of France keeps doing a masterful job of reminding his partners that I should not be humiliated, that I have feelings.

Laughter from the audience.

Putin – And Erdogan, in Turkey, manages to brilliantly obstruct Finland’s and Sweden’s decision to join NATO. A very nice vacation spot Turkey is, so thank you Mr Erdogan, for not joining in the sanctions against us.

Applause.

Putin – There is significant isolationist sentiment in America, which helps our case. We will keep using our sophisticated cyber operations to foster that sentiment. Lots of Republicans are saying, ‘no more help for Ukraine.’ Good.
Slowly then, with the help of American isolationists, we will neutralize their resolve to support Ukraine.
We’re almost there.
Notice how I’ve been able to keep the West from providing warplanes to Ukraine. Poland had the right idea when they pushed to hand over their Mig jets, but the coalition balked. I was staring them in the eye with my message ‘I have nuclear weapons,’ and the subtext ‘and willing to use them’, when they blinked. So they turned down Poland’s offer.
Instead of shortening the war with the war planes, they have prolonged it.
My bet that the West’s indecisiveness would give us Ukraine, was correct. For they keep thinking, ‘We have so much more than them’.
I have been pleasantly surprised to see how effective our strategy has been. Though I was confident of our eventual victory, I did not anticipate the tremendous impact I would cause on inflation and the world markets.
I love seeing how the market indices keep dropping and dropping, how they overreact to inflation concerns, a mark of their lack of conviction in their government and in themselves.
But it is the result of my clear strategy. I knew I could scare them into inaction and I have.
I do not know if giving Ukrainians war planes would have been decisive, or could be decisive, but fierce Ukrainians, defending their land with the right weapons, would likely have made a difference. They could have forced us out of their territory.
Would I have been humiliated by such action? Don’t know. But I would’ve been reluctant to commit most of my air force to blunt it, for it would have left me too exposed.
I am as impressed as the rest of the world with the bravery and resolve of the Ukrainian people and have to admit that I misjudged Zelensky. He’s a far stronger leader than I thought.
But the momentum is now in our favor.
The West had an opportunity to seize the moment and it didn’t.
And so the totality of Ukraine will be conquered.

Applause.

Putin – I do worry, that the tenacious spirit of Ukrainians might lead to a resistance movement, a form of guerrilla response which could be bloody and lasting. I worry because if it keeps killing our soldiers it may become too costly.
Before I take questions, I’d like to make a comment on Biden and Afghanistan.
The prevailing opinion has been that Biden’s decision to leave Afghanistan influenced my decision to take over Ukraine. That is not correct. In my view, Biden did the right thing. He cut his losses. That was a never ending war. Pakistan would have continued to support the Taliban making an American victory impossible. The question is, why did it take them so long to get out?
My decision to invade Ukraine was due to my conviction, that the isolationist sentiment Mr Trump had stirred, along with America’s growing internal acrimony, would be long lasting. I was right.
Biden’s pulling out of Afghanistan had nothing to do with it.
In fact, Biden’s resolve has surprised me. He has shown tremendous commitment to the cause of the unification of the West and the defense of Ukraine. But the economic upheaval the war has caused has diminished his influence.
Still, this is not yet over.
Biden could, against all critics, decide to agree to give Ukrainians the war planes they need.
He could still make the choice to challenge me.
He’s a risk taker. Will the rest of America allow him to do so, I’m not sure.
Although I didn’t like it, he publicly called me a ‘killer’ and a ‘war criminal’.
How would I respond to a challenge of his, I don’t know, but this I can say, though we don’t have as much as the West does, we do have something. Russia has something. And we don’t want to lose it.
Questions?
Official (standing up) – Mr President… what do you think of America’s Right to Bear Arms, their second amendment?
Putin – It wouldn’t happen here, I can say that…

Laughter from the audience.

Putin – … I just read that, on average, there’s a school shooting in America every month.
And they can’t agree on how to stop them. They’re bleeding to death. Advantage Russia.
Next question?

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.net, anchor.fm, buzzprout, apple and google podcasts