China – Oscar Valdes

What Happened to Russians?

What happened to all the literature they’ve written?
What happened to all the great music they’ve composed?
What happened to all the science they’ve produced?
Does it all take a back seat to the whims of a murderous man like Putin?
A man who, every morning, makes a choice as to the number of missiles he will shoot into Ukraine – never mind whether they strike soldiers or civilians – he just needs to fire them.
Russians, where are you hiding?
The killing of Ukrainians is being done in your name, so you should do something about it.
Any act of resistance counts.
Refusing to join the army is a worthy contribution. You may end up in prison but Putin is not going to last long.
These days, owing to Ukrainians’ daring and ingenuity, missiles are travelling in the other direction also, hitting targets inside Russia’s borders.
And no, Ukrainians will not sit down to discuss an end to the war until all their territories are returned.
Proud people that they are, they spelled it out to China the other day.
This war is not going to last forever. And it will end with a Ukrainian victory.
And a Russia steeped in shame.
But there’s still time for Russians to rise and reclaim their nation.
Still time for Russians to stand up and choose to embrace the value of liberty and freedom of choice, the right to dissent, to elect their leaders.
Russians, what has happened to you?
Where are you hiding?
Yes, fear is a powerful force, but so is love, so is courage, so is daring, so is decency, so is respect for other human beings.
We can’t let fear rule our lives.
Somehow it happened to you. You fell asleep, ignored your history of achievements and let a tyrant direct your lives, just like Xi Jinping is doing in China.
A life lived in fear is not a life lived. It’s a life forsaken.
Go look at yourself in the mirror, ask yourself, am I doing what I should do for myself, for my Russia, for the real Russia, the proud Russia, the Russia that has made enormous contributions to humanity?
If you don’t feel anger, then Putin has taken over your life.
If you don’t feel rage, then you’ve let Putin intimidate you and put into your mind that Ukrainians are demons, inferior human beings, and so must be eliminated.
If you don’t feel horrified then you have let that miserable, murderous human being called Putin, make cruel choices in your name.
And you let it happen.
It was you who didn’t think. You who didn’t remember your literature, you who didn’t hear the beauty in the music your own brothers and sisters have produced over the centuries. You who have failed.
Wake up! There’s still time. Do something about it!

For my regular posts see oscarvaldes.medium.com

The Nations Undecided in the War

Most are developing nations.
And just as they are developing economically, they are developing their ability to take a moral stance.
Put another way, they need more time to grow up. To mature.
Notable examples are India and Turkiye (Turkey). Turkiye is even a member of NATO and yet they have not agreed to the sanctions imposed by the West, preferring to play both sides.
It is reasonable to infer that these undecided nations are afraid of upsetting Russia and China.
I am sure all kinds of excuses are conjured up to justify their positions.
Of course, the war is far from decided and either party could win.
The West could get all tangled up with doubt and not deliver the weapons Ukraine needs to fight back and push the Russians out.
With the lethal assistance of China, Putin could double up on the missiles he fires daily on Ukraine and gain an edge that will help defeat them.
So far, though, even with all our delays and indecisiveness, enough armaments have got through for the world to witness a remarkable fight. Ukraine, the underdog, bloodying the nose of the big bully next door.
The undecided nations have seen this enormous display of valor but have not been persuaded to side with Ukraine. This is remarkable. It is because developing nations are themselves underdogs.
There is no certainty, whatsoever, that India or Turkiye will ever fulfill their potential as nations. It is all a dream at this point. Instead of moving forward they may get stuck and regress instead. India may never become what China is now. Turkiye may keep electing autocrats like Erdogan, again and again.
A distinctive feature about Ukraine is that here is a nation which has had all manner of difficulties in governance and then, to everyone’s surprise, when the bully next door, loaded with nuclear weapons, chooses to rum them over, they stand up and fight like no one has fought in decades.
And yet, despite all that courage, the majority of developing nations cannot make Ukraine’s struggle their own.
This is not good. Not to stand up for your brothers and sisters.
It reveals a lack of moral strength and a weak historical perspective.
Zelensky should be telling the undecided, ‘where’s your courage? Our fight should be your fight. How come you’re not stepping up and owning it? You don’t have to send us anything, not even a toothbrush, but you can do a great deal by standing up in the United Nations and decrying the absurdity of seeing a big bully trample on the little guy next door.
If you can’t do that, then you have your priorities wrong. And you’re letting yourself be intimidated by both Russia and China.’
Zelensky should say that, or something close to it.
Denounce the undecided. Expose them. Call them timid. Remind them that their evolution to developed nation is not assured with their present behavior.
Zelensky ought to speak loudly on this matter for the good of the undecided and the good of the world.
The outcome of this conflict is not assured.
A deranged Putin may yet fire his nuclear weapons. And as he descends into madness and goes deeper into his orgy of death, when he gets ready to push the button, he may not consult a list to differentiate between the nations for and against the war. After he’s fired on the ‘evil’ West, he will likely keep firing at random… his appetite for killing insatiable.
Undecided nations of the world, find your courage now.
History remembers timidity and has another word to describe it.

I Changed My Mind. Run, Biden

I am now in favor of Biden running for reelection in 2024.
Did he stumble going up the stairs to his plane recently? So what?
Does he stammer on occasion? So what?
Does he miss a beat sometimes? So what?
As I write this I hear Beethoven conducted by Bernstein and the NY Philharmonic orchestra
in the background and to mind comes poet Dylan Thomas’ exhortation to his father, ‘rage, rage against the dying of the light’.
That’s right, Joe Biden, rage, rage!
Take on the Republican adversary and give them a good fight.
You’re doing a good job so keep at it.
The war effort would not be where it is now were it not for your push.
Although I strongly believe you need to be bolder and confront Putin to stop firing missiles from behind his borders to kill Ukrainians and destroy their country.
Should you take this step the war will come to an end sooner. It could be the turning point. Please think about it carefully.
Advancing age does create problems for all of us but every one of us is different and there are men and women older than you making important contributions to humankind.
I’m reminded of a researcher in England whose name I don’t recall, who had celebrated her 100th year and still walked down the hill from where she lived on the way to her lab. Every day.
So ‘rage, rage against the dying of the light!’
You are clear in the perception that our nation stands now at a critical juncture in history.
The two largest totalitarian regimes in the world, deniers and abusers of man’s eternal quest for freedom of expression, have joined forces to trample on the West.
They must be stopped. Until such time as when their people will awaken.
Maybe we should drop millions of copies of George Orwell’s ‘1984’ from balloons overhead on China and Russia so they can start pulling out of their existential mud.
But while we wait for them to breathe the air of freedom and dare challenge their oppressors, here in America we have plenty of work to do to correct long held injustices.
We can do it.
Your leadership comes filled with hope and an openness to dialogue. That many Republicans are still under the spell of Trump and Trump alike figures is part of what our nation has to deal with.
But keep pushing hard to do what you think needs to be done. If you’re wrong, we’ll tell you.
And if you fall ill as you press on with your term and the next, well, then our medical teams will step in to restore you to full competency. And if your time is past, then Harris will kick in.
Meanwhile, go forth young man, young at heart, young in your mind, striving to fight off the bullies and dictators seeking to keep humanity on its knees.
Stay open to criticism. If you’re not well enough to continue doing your job then tell us. We need that honesty from you. But who knows when that will be?
Defy the odds, keep pushing, striving to do your best.
‘Rage, rage against the dying of the light!’
And ‘run, Biden, run!’

Putin and his Conscience

In his temporary lodging, Putin awakens in the middle of the night.
Something was stirring in his mind that interrupted his sleep.
He sits up on the side of the bed.
He switches on the light on the nightstand. It’s 2:05 am.
It’s the first night he spends at this location. It’s secure, with plenty of surveillance.
Yesterday at midday, just before he had lunch, he got a call from his personal secret service.
A possible assassination attempt had been intercepted. He was given some details with more to come as the investigation proceeded.
It has happened before but he feels confident his people are providing excellent protection.
And yet, it’s hard to relax.
‘Hi’
He’s stunned for an instant but recognizes the tone of the voice and sighs with relief.
‘You again…’
‘Yes… me…’
The disembodied voice has no discernible source. It’s just there, all over the room.
Putin looks around the room, slowly.
‘What should I call you?’ he asks.
‘Whatever you wish.’
‘My conscience?’
‘You could say that…’
‘What’s the point?’
‘To help you think.’
‘Ah, that.’ Putin smiles.
‘You’ve said you needed space… that you felt hemmed in by the West… so Ukraine should be yours…’
‘That’s right. Not just my space but Russia’s. I’m doing it for Russia.’
‘I’m familiar with the argument… but as I examine things… it seems to me what you are really needing is enlargement of your mental space.’
‘Aha.’ Putin chuckles.
‘Looks to me like you’re cramped inside your mind…’
‘Cramped?’
‘Yes. For instance, in your way of thinking, sexual orientation is of only one kind… you have to be straight or you fall outside the law.’
‘That’s right.’
‘It doesn’t seem unnatural to you?’
‘Not at all. Russia is the future of mankind and perversions are not allowed.’
‘Wow. It is amazing how you can be so certain about matters so complicated and which stir so much debate in other societies…’
‘Decadent societies. Here in Russia, we strive for purity.’
‘Purity… hmm… that’s a troublesome word, isn’t it? I mean, Hitler used it and then led so many people to their deaths… caused so much disruption… so much pain… so much loss.’
‘You don’t think we can be pure?’
‘No. We’re all tainted, impure… a mix of generosity and hatred… a blend of the sublime and the vile… we’re human…’
‘I don’t want that for my Russia…’
‘… and, surprisingly… the more aware we are of our sometimes sharp contradictions… the more of a chance we have to control our excesses… the more of a chance we have to temper our actions… to perchance find understanding… even kindness.’
‘I’m a great believer in the Russian Orthodox Church and what Patriarch Kirill has to say.’

Pause

‘It’s hard for me to understand how a church like that can be so close minded.’
‘Call it what you will but so long as I have nuclear weapons that’s the way it will be.
I have the power to bring the world to its knees… and Russians love me for it… they love the power I give them… they may be isolated in this world but I make them feel special… big.’
‘We have a problem here, don’t we… it’s hard to get through to you.’

Putin nods pensively.

‘I think I’ve crossed that line. A while back.’
‘I find it amazing… here you are, talking about being special, you and all Russians… and you’re killing you neighbor every day… mothers, fathers, children. In the name of the church?’
‘In the name of a new world order… together with China… a new world order where the rules are written by a few outstanding leaders… like me and Xi… and the rest follow the rules. At first I had doubts I could do it but no longer. I am certain now. I can intimidate them all… Macron, Scholz, Sunak… in fact they’re already working to get Zelensky to compromise and come to the negotiating table… where I will insist on keeping the territory I’ve conquered… and the plan they proposed doesn’t even give Ukraine NATO protection. It’s a victory for me, already. I was right. I could divide the West.’
‘What about America?’
‘America… ha! Makes me laugh. All that talk about freedom and they love strong men, they elected Trump didn’t they? All that talk about freedom’s benefits, but what do they want to do with it? Get a gun!
Ha! And yes, I’ll do everything I can to get Trump reelected. And I’ll ask comrade Xi to help, and together we’ll help persuade the voters that Trump should be president again. And then again, after he changes the rules. Too bad the assault on the Capitol didn’t go well. But look at how many Senators and Representatives still love him? I’m convinced human beings prefer the comforts of living on their knees to the pain and tribulations of having a mind of their own.’
‘In the meantime… you’ll keep killing your neighbors?’
‘They have to learn their lesson.
Maybe one day, in the future, human beings will learn to live in freedom… I admit it has its attractions… love… brotherhood… sisterhood… yes… all that… but that’s in the future… I live in the present. So what do you have to say to that?’
‘In your power… you are not free,’ replies the voice, ‘your mind narrow as your heart.’

All is quiet now.
Putin’s expression turns somber.

Comrade Xi

I hear that you want to be a peace maker in the war with Ukraine.
Interesting.
You have, obviously, no shame, sir, not a shred of it.
You have encouraged Putin to kill thousands of Ukrainians and destroy their infrastructure,
while helping him sacrifice thousands of his own people. That’s children without fathers, without uncles, spouses without husbands.
So why do you want to be a peace maker?
Your aggrandizement?
Recently you chose to break with custom in China and pushed your party to elect you to a third term. Two terms weren’t enough for your big ego. You needed another one and probably two more so you can die in office like your great hero, Mao Zedong who, as everyone knows, was no great gift to humanity.
So you’re just like Putin. Not a shred better. We certainly can ask the Uyghurs in Xinjiang province and the dissidents in Hong Kong and I’m sure they’ll have something to say about it.
And we all know that this is part of your preparation to invade Taiwan. When the time comes, you’ll move to destroy everything they’ve built just so can tell your folks that you’ve unified China. Never mind the cost. Putin will be cheering for you, of course. Providing ‘logistical support’, as in, ‘don’t do anything against my “friend forever” Xi or I’ll fire my nuclear weapons’.
Comrade, you just don’t get that what the Taiwanese really want is their freedom to live as they choose. To have elections so if they don’t like a leader they can remove him or her from power. Of course, you wouldn’t dream of having elections. Too advanced for your political system.
But don’t get too comfortable about taking over Taiwan, because the West may have a little surprise waiting for you. Just make a note.
Meanwhile, in the South China Sea you’re bullying the Philippines, encroaching brazenly into their nautical space.
And I have no doubt that when Kim Jong Un from North Korea calls you to let you know he’s about to fire another missile over Japan, you say, ‘Go ahead, guy, let’s keep the Japanese and Americans on the edge of their seats.’
But shouldn’t you also help feed the North Koreans? Because we’ve been hearing their food supplies are running low. Nothing new, though. They’ve had thousands of people die from starvation before. Are you going to lend a hand?
So sorry, here I am getting distracted from my main topic. Understandable, because there’s so much to talk about. Like, for instance, how Chinese courts favor your companies in patent disputes with western companies. Never mind the balloon you were flying over Montana, which just happened to be above some of our nuclear silos.
Comrade, now you want to play peace maker. After you’ve supported Putin you want to come in and say, ‘let us all embrace, be friends again, kiss, kiss, and bring joy to your families.’
Of course, as part of any peace accord, Putin must keep Eastern Ukraine and Crimea.
So, no. Your story is just not believable. You are not believable. Or trustworthy. I’m sure your move to bring peace plays well at home, and that the millions and millions of Chinese you have scared into not finding their voice, will jump in joy that their great leader will bring harmony to the world.
Get serious, man.
Want to do something for humanity? Tell Putin to back off. To apologize to Ukraine and to the world. To get on his knees and beg forgiveness.
But you won’t do it.
It’s not in you.
So how long will the fight go on?
It’s up to Ukraine. It’s their land. It’s their people doing the dying. It’s their quest for freedom.

Mr Biden, You are Now a War President

Present circumstances are creating opportunities and reasons to end the conflict as soon as possible.
One, Russia’s army has shown weaknesses we didn’t expect.
There are feuds within their forces, which includes the mercenary Wagner group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin. How come such a group gets to play an oversize role in Russia’s defense forces? Something is amiss in the Kremlin.
Two, China has decided to openly aid Putin in all ways possible, weapons included.
They see the war and taking Putin’s side as a path to split the world into two camps, with joining him becoming a first step until they gather the strength to come after us and make the world only one camp. Their camp.
Three, Putin has announced he will suspend the existing Nuclear Arms Treaty with us.
This is part of his scare tactics that must be confronted, not given into. The sooner Putin is defeated in Ukraine, the less the likelihood of a nuclear confrontation. Why? Because China wouldn’t let him start one since they, too, would become a target.
Though we have given much support to Ukraine over this past year, we have been indecisive and timid in our actions.
For instance, the promised delivery of tanks has been delayed and a precious opportunity to push back Russia has been wasted at the cost of many lives.
The divisions within the western alliance are eroding much needed resolve. There is talk about negotiating a peace treaty when a military solution is clearly possible. In Italy, former prime minister Berlusconi speaks openly of his admiration for Putin. In Hungary, prime minister Orban is not far behind.
And why has Erdogan been allowed to block Sweden and Finland’s full NATO membership?
Present circumstances call for speedy access to NATO and not to have it held back because of Turkiye’s internal problems.
Erdogan has not even agreed to the sanctions NATO has imposed on Russia, therefore severely undermining the war effort.
An autocrat like Erdogan does not deserve to be holding up NATO.
There is no question that Ukraine’s effort has earned our admiration.
Ukrainians’ courage has helped us regain our own courage. The courage we did not have when, in 2014, we did nothing as Putin took over all of Crimea.
Had we shown courage then, Ukraine would not have been in the present condition.
As leader of the Free World we don’t get to be passive in the face of such actions.
We either accept such role with all its responsibilities or relabel ourselves as something else.
Mr Biden, you are now a war president. And difficult choices must be made.
Why is it that we have allowed Russia to shoot missiles into Ukraine from their own territory, while we deny Ukrainians their right to fire back?
By allowing this we are granting a grossly unfair advantage while signaling that we have yielded to intimidation.
If we have the courage to acknowledge this, then we can recover our moxie and do what’s right.
His missiles are killing people and destroying Ukraine.
If Putin wants to fire missiles to kill Ukrainians then move the missiles to the territory they have conquered and fire them from there. That way Ukrainians can fire back and destroy them as I’m sure they would.
Mr Biden, as war president, you must challenge Putin and fix this cruel imbalance.
If Putin then chose to keep firing such missiles from his own territory, we should then give Ukraine permission to fire back into Russian territory.
An escalation? In his eyes, yes, but instead it should be seen as a necessary rectification. Why should Putin be allowed to kill as he pleases?
Do not forget for one moment that China is carefully watching for signs and moments of weakness in us.
It is inevitable that we will have those but we should act quickly to rectify them.
Ukraine has shown such determination to succeed that, if given all they need, I have no doubt they will push Russia back to behind its borders. And then, immediately upon their doing so, we should grant Ukraine temporary NATO protection, in effect bringing the war to a halt.
We should tell Ukrainians this now, so it will act as a further incentive for their tenacious fighting.
Mr Biden, your trip to Kyiv was an important step. Thank you for that.
Now we need to stop the missiles.
You are our war president.
Please move to end this conflict now.

To The War Reporter

Photo by Abdullah Ghatasheh on Pexels.com

You go to the source of the action,
You take the risk,
The Ukrainian soldier tells you as much as he’s allowed
And you sift through it all to capture the essence,
Their humanity, their fears, their courage.
At those moments, when you’re listening and carefully observing
all that you’ve been allowed to immerse in,
you become one of them.
A Russian missile could be about to land where you are taking notes,
yet you steel yourself to capture all that is noteworthy before your senses.
Sights, smells, sounds, taste and touch,
And then you send it all to us,
To anyone who’s open to taking it in,
You send it condensed into words that leap across nations and oceans
to elicit thoughts and emotions that then carry us back
to your side,
at that soldier’s side,
and a bridge is built.

By your actions you enlarge our minds,
Sharpen our judgments,
make possible the flowering of empathy,
the deepening of solidarity,
the evincing of conviction in the purpose.

For some of the soldiers you interview,
that moment you shared with the rest of us may become the paper clipping
his family will treasure, maybe even the only memento if the soldier is blown up the next day
and doesn’t get to return from the front to embrace his wife and children.
With your writing you reach out and capture life,
You enrich, expand and lengthen it,
You frame the heroism of those men
Fighting against forces of darkness that seek to entomb them and us all.
Your efforts help create a new consciousness that is critical to embolden the world’s fight for freedom.

Gifted men and women,
warriors in defense of ideas and humanity,
Press on!
we are most grateful for your strength,
your vision and commitment.
Dare on!
Without you the world would be darker and cripple our minds,
Our thoughts and feelings wouldn’t take wing
and instead crash on the rocks of ignorance.

From all those whose lives you’ve touched with your reporting,
Thank you.
The pursuit of liberty would not be possible without you.

What We Need to Say to Russia Now

One taboo just came down. There are at least two left.
The taboo that came down was the one that said the West shouldn’t send tanks into Ukraine because it would upset the Russians. The tanks would be too much fire power and the big bear would growl louder.
After much back and forth, finally Britain took the step and committed to sending in their Challenger tanks. This will boost Ukraine’s fighting capacity and make a difference.
Now if only Chancellor Scholz in Germany would make up his mind and supply the Leopard tanks, then the punch Ukrainians can deliver will increase its power.
For the second taboo. The West should not supply weapons powerful enough to reach into Russia’s territory.
This is a good one. For a while, I bought into it, too. Russia can shoot their missiles into Ukraine from inside their borders, but Ukraine can’t shoot the missiles we give them into Russian territory.
This is not a sustainable position.
Keep this up and Russia will conquer Ukraine.
We need to make up our minds, do we want Ukraine to win, or are we looking for a long war and then, after there are no Ukrainian men left to fight, Vladimir the Great will ride into Kyiv unopposed.
With China and India buying his oil, even at reduced prices, there will always be cash to support the Russian economy, at least long enough to conquer Ukraine.
So we must draw the line and say to Putin, stop firing missiles into Ukraine from Russia itself. Stop now. If not then we will give Ukraine the capacity to fire missiles into your territory.
The assumption in the West has been that this will so upset Putin that he will want to fire his nuclear weapons at us. Hence, Escalation. The big E. The third taboo.
But does Putin want Russia destroyed? No.
He cannot get away with firing nuclear weapons without us firing back.
We haven’t confronted Putin yet because he has intimidated us.
We must admit this.
The bully has to be confronted. There is no other way.
Do we have what it takes to confront him? Yes.
This war pits two very unevenly matched combatants. Russia has the advantage of territorial proximity and larger number of troops.
That Ukraine has come this far against the odds is an amazing story.
But without us setting new rules, Ukraine’s remarkable courage will be beaten down.
There is so much they can take.
To not confront Putin now is to say, ‘let’s wait until Ukraine is exhausted and then Zelensky himself will be ready to beg for a negotiated peace which His Highness Vladimir the Greatest, might just agree to in the interest of projecting a measure of benevolence. So long as half of Ukraine stays under his control. The other half to follow in 2-3 years.
And Putin will be able to say, ‘it took my frightening them to get them to not set limits on me. That’s why I will one day own Europe. Because if the West can’t stand up to me now, they won’t do so later. My bravado will again win the day.’
In confronting Putin it would help if we can say to China, ‘You’re an accomplice in this war. You’ve supported Putin. If Putin dares use nuclear weapons, then you, too, will be a target for us. Think about it.’
Would that mobilize China to prevent a nuclear war?
Absolutely.
We are letting Putin frighten us.
We cannot allow it.

Something is Off in Putin’s Inner Circle

A few days ago, an article in the NYT spoke of the Wagner group claiming that it had taken over the town of Soledar in the Donbas area, only to be quickly contradicted by Russia’s defense ministry and Ukraine’s military.
The head of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has also criticized the Russian military for their management of the invasion.
So how come the Wagner group, a force of mercenary soldiers, which recruits prisoners to do the fighting, and whose chief and creator is reported to be a convicted criminal, has risen to such prominence in military affairs? (Before this he was in the restaurant business)
This is not new. The Wagner group has been active in Africa and in Syria supporting dictators.
Mind you, with the right approach, convicted criminals do turn their lives around and become contributors to society, and maybe Prigozhin is a standout talent, but to go from prison to becoming a close associate of Putin and then being entrusted with leading military actions in Africa and Syria and now in Ukraine, arouses a measure of interest.
Does Putin trust his own military, or is he more comfortable with Prigozhin?
Is he afraid that a career military commander may distinguish himself on the battlefield and grow to become a rival?
Russia’s failures in combat have been mounting and this is likely accentuating divisions in the armed forces.
Has Putin, deliberately, kept his military weak?
Did he believe it would be easier instead to control a former convict and his mercenaries?
In recent years there had been much talk of Putin modernizing his military, but it appears the changes were not substantive enough. Was he afraid of giving too much power to an institution that could overthrow him?
The war is not over and turnarounds are possible but, so far, Russia’s military’s performance in Ukraine has left them with a black mark for all the world to see. With their pride wounded, will they choose to stage a coup against Putin?
How is it that Putin thought that a mercenary group, even if 10 times its current size, could hold up against a trained and committed Ukrainian force fighting for their land?
There is no way that such group could win.
Present developments keep pointing to grave structural flaws in Russia’s management of the war, another reason why it is critical that the West continue its support of Ukraine’s fighters.
It is also important to find out which way does the Russian military lean politically.
Could it be that, as an educated group, it may be leaning more toward a democratic form of government and toward building stronger links with Europe?
Maybe the Russian military does not share the ultranationalist sentiments of some of Putin’s staunch supporters and, because of it, Putin has preferred to keep them relatively weak.
Otherwise, why not send Russian soldiers to Africa in place of the Wagner group? Wouldn’t that give them precious battlefield experience?
Something is off in Putin’s inner circle.
Maybe his dominance and control are not all that tight.
I am sure China is closely following these developments and acting on them to increase their influence.
There may even be a pro China faction and a pro Western faction in the Russian armed forces, both tugging with each other.
Educated, self respecting military officers are likely questioning the conduct of the war, Putin’s meddling and the loss of prestige their institution has suffered.
Is that institution now questioning their role in Russian society?
Is Putin’s savagery in Ukraine not something worth standing up to?
Are they not demeaned enough as Putin carries on unopposed in Russia?
Have they become lambs for the great Vladimir, future czar or king of their land?
Will the Russian military now forget what they are capable of, as when they beat back Hitler and changed the course of WWII, and instead bow as they wait for instructions from the head of the Wagner group?
The world is watching.

When Will The War End?

There is no way of realistically predicting that time but the more relevant question is, how will the war end?
I see two main camps at this point. One stating that we should hurry up and look for a deal enabling the contending parties to put down their weapons. Another saying there will be no talks until Russia has left Ukraine entirely, including Crimea, which they took over in 2014.
Zelensky is a strong advocate of the latter option.
And it makes sense.
Pushing Putin out of Ukraine entirely would be a complete victory.
So long as Ukraine is willing to put in the heroic effort, the West should back them up.
The West needs to take the long view and make the necessary sacrifices. The advantages are enormous.
A deterred Russia is more likely to see the anti Putin ferment rise and eventually lead to the deposing of Putin.
An increasingly united West will help work out internal differences and hasten the path to energy independence. The western alliance has the intellectual/technological/industrial capacity to accomplish the task.
A complete Russian retreat from Ukraine has important consequences for China’s present leadership. It will be clear to all Chinese that the global West, in mustering the resources needed to assist Ukraine, will be ready to make the same commitment to aid Taiwan.
The Chinese people are a capable people but the present leadership is preventing their political maturation. Xi Jinping is another Vladimir Putin, likely to be as truculent, murderous and brutal as the Russian in his effort to keep himself in power.
The Chinese communist party has been able to control the population only because of its repression of freedom of speech. When the Chinese people gain such freedom, all their potential will be unleashed to the benefit of their nation and the world.
The US has been broadcasting into China through Radio Free Asia (rfa.org) in Mandarin, Cantonese, Uyghur and other languages. Chinese authorities consistently jam the transmissions so this needs to be improved.
China will retaliate, of course but they won’t be able to wall off their country.
A steady flow of information from the free world will be critical to create the necessary conditions in China so they begin to move toward democracy.
Both Russia and China are fond of looking at the West and saying ‘Look at all the chaos that you have.’ But free societies learn to face those conditions and find answers to them, spurring civic growth as a result.
The heroic effort of Ukraine is opening a new path for nations to cooperate and rid the world of the devastating consequences of dictatorial regimes.
A word about Zelensky and his tenure as president of Ukraine. New elections for the post will not be held until the end of March 2024. Zelensky is permitted to run again.
Will the war have ended by then?
I hope so.
If it has not, the holding of such an important election should be postponed. It would be very difficult for the opposition to campaign while the nation is at war.
Zelensky should then say that he will continue as president only until the end of the war and not run again. And the nation should set a limit for such tenure, say a year or two at the most, if war were to drag on further.
Where would Zelensky go next?
I believe he would do a great job as head of the United Nations.
One of his tasks ought to be to lead the effort to redraw the terms of the body’s charter, so as to not allow countries like Russia and China to hold veto power in the UN’s Security Council.
The world needs to break the chains to authoritarian governments.