Turkey – Oscar Valdes

The Nations Undecided in the War

Most are developing nations.
And just as they are developing economically, they are developing their ability to take a moral stance.
Put another way, they need more time to grow up. To mature.
Notable examples are India and Turkiye (Turkey). Turkiye is even a member of NATO and yet they have not agreed to the sanctions imposed by the West, preferring to play both sides.
It is reasonable to infer that these undecided nations are afraid of upsetting Russia and China.
I am sure all kinds of excuses are conjured up to justify their positions.
Of course, the war is far from decided and either party could win.
The West could get all tangled up with doubt and not deliver the weapons Ukraine needs to fight back and push the Russians out.
With the lethal assistance of China, Putin could double up on the missiles he fires daily on Ukraine and gain an edge that will help defeat them.
So far, though, even with all our delays and indecisiveness, enough armaments have got through for the world to witness a remarkable fight. Ukraine, the underdog, bloodying the nose of the big bully next door.
The undecided nations have seen this enormous display of valor but have not been persuaded to side with Ukraine. This is remarkable. It is because developing nations are themselves underdogs.
There is no certainty, whatsoever, that India or Turkiye will ever fulfill their potential as nations. It is all a dream at this point. Instead of moving forward they may get stuck and regress instead. India may never become what China is now. Turkiye may keep electing autocrats like Erdogan, again and again.
A distinctive feature about Ukraine is that here is a nation which has had all manner of difficulties in governance and then, to everyone’s surprise, when the bully next door, loaded with nuclear weapons, chooses to rum them over, they stand up and fight like no one has fought in decades.
And yet, despite all that courage, the majority of developing nations cannot make Ukraine’s struggle their own.
This is not good. Not to stand up for your brothers and sisters.
It reveals a lack of moral strength and a weak historical perspective.
Zelensky should be telling the undecided, ‘where’s your courage? Our fight should be your fight. How come you’re not stepping up and owning it? You don’t have to send us anything, not even a toothbrush, but you can do a great deal by standing up in the United Nations and decrying the absurdity of seeing a big bully trample on the little guy next door.
If you can’t do that, then you have your priorities wrong. And you’re letting yourself be intimidated by both Russia and China.’
Zelensky should say that, or something close to it.
Denounce the undecided. Expose them. Call them timid. Remind them that their evolution to developed nation is not assured with their present behavior.
Zelensky ought to speak loudly on this matter for the good of the undecided and the good of the world.
The outcome of this conflict is not assured.
A deranged Putin may yet fire his nuclear weapons. And as he descends into madness and goes deeper into his orgy of death, when he gets ready to push the button, he may not consult a list to differentiate between the nations for and against the war. After he’s fired on the ‘evil’ West, he will likely keep firing at random… his appetite for killing insatiable.
Undecided nations of the world, find your courage now.
History remembers timidity and has another word to describe it.

The Three Things to Win the War

One – Give Ukraine all it needs to push Russia back to behind its borders.

Time is critical. Zelensky has called for fighter jets.
The sooner we provide them, the quicker the benefits.
We don’t have to idealize Ukraine to acknowledge their tremendous courage,
their commitment to defend their land and affirm their right to self determination.
They have their flaws, like all of us do, but they have made their choice.
Victory or death. And they have been brilliant.
Can anyone recall any western nation making that choice since the end of WWII, as they fight a foe much more powerful militarily than them?
No western nation has done that.
Does Russia have the commitment Ukraine has?
No.
The majority of Russians have been living in a trance induced by Putin. They have swallowed whole the lies they have been fed.
It will take some time for that nation to come to terms with the historical costs of such passivity. Eventually, other leaders will arise and the necessary self scrutiny will take place. Meanwhile, all consenting Russians are accomplices in the atrocities committed against Ukraine.
A Russian not lifting a finger to dissent with Putin is an accomplice of his.

Two – Stop Russia from firing missiles into Ukraine from Russia itself.

This is unacceptable. It keeps happening because we’ve been afraid to confront Putin.
Why are we allowing this advantage to the Russians?
We should say to Putin, stop firing missiles from your territory or we will provide Ukrainians with the same capability.
Since when are Ukrainian lives less dear than those of Russia?
With their actions, Ukrainians have been loudly saying to the world, this war is winnable.
They are right and in need of our full backing.
Ukraine is standing today because of the effort made by the West to arm them. But we also have pressing problems of our own that need our resources and attention, the more reason to bring the war to an end as soon as possible.
So let us gather our own courage to put limits on Putin.

Three – The moment that Russia is pushed back to behind its borders we should declare Ukraine to have all the protections of a NATO member.
Given all the sacrifices Ukrainians have made and the atrocities committed by Putin and his fellow Russians, Ukrainians are deserving of such protection.
I am sure this could be agreed upon.
Turkiye’s president may object, as he has in blocking Sweden’s and Norway’s membership, but the man likes to play both sides and has yet to agree to the sanctions on Russia imposed by the West. So NATO should boot him out of the organization, let him cozy up to China instead and good luck with that.

This war should not go on and on. Ukrainians have limits. The nations forming part of the western alliance have limits, too.
The sooner the war ends, the better for all.
We should give Ukraine everything it needs now.
Ukraine’s commitment to succeed can push back Russia to behind its borders, and with NATO’s protections have the security to start rebuilding what will be a remarkable nation, the envy of all Russians and all other nations living without human beings’ basic freedoms.

Iran and the Shooting Down of a US Drone

Escalation, yes. A country with its back against the wall from the US imposed sanctions, could do a lot worse than shooting down a drone whose position in flight may or may not have been in Iranian airspace. And Trump could easily have retaliated with a strike against their military installations but did not.

Surely the hawks in his inner circle, Pompeo and Bolton, would very much have liked that choice. But the president, looking ahead to his political survival, made the decision that best suited his agenda: winning his reelection.

Trump weighed the pros and cons. An attack on Iranian installations, even if no lives were lost, an unlikely event, would have led to another Iranian response, and a chain reaction easily set in motion.

Does Trump want a protracted war on his hands as he tries to rally support for his reelection?

No.

Additionally, on June 18-19 when the G-20 meeting takes place in Osaka, Japan, all eyes will be on Trump and Xi Jinping regarding a possible resolution to the ongoing trade war between the two countries.

A war in the background likely weakens Trump’s position, so he chose to be sensible and hold his hand.

Apparently cyber attacks were ordered and further economic sanctions imposed as a result of the drone attack, but no lives will be lost.

Iran has been funding terrorist actions in the region and that has been going on for years. Empowering the people who are targeted by those actions will be the best way to counter them.

And so, too, inside Iran itself, for eventually it will be up to Iranians to confront their leaders and demand a regime change.

Current events show us that this is possible and likely more fundamental in its effects than the intervention of a foreign power in a nation’s affairs.

Today, in Turkey, the city of Istanbul got a new mayor who is a member of the opposition to Erdogan’s ruling party and was bitterly resisted by him. It is a great moment for Turkish democracy.

Last weekend, the people of Hong Kong came out in great numbers to oppose a rule that would have allowed the extradition of a resident of the city to the mainland. The rule was clearly a move to undermine Hong Kong’s democratic institutions. And the people responded with an enormous display of courage. What an inspiration for the rest of China and for the world.

Human Folly – Episode 1 (Khashoggi, The Prince and Trump)

The world had been shocked by his assassination. The victim, a distinguished journalist who had been an adviser to the Saudi royal family, had decided to take a different direction in his life. If he had been a soft critic of the royal family’s injustices against the citizenry, now he would become a harsh one.

The gradual transition from insider to outsider had been driven by the journalist’s conviction that he had an obligation, as a man and as an intellectual, to stand up for himself and for his fellow countrymen who did not have the gifts and resources he had.

The journalist had weighed the pros and cons carefully. He knew there would be risks, but never did he imagine that the end would be so brutal.

A team of Saudi Arabian hitmen had been lying in wait at theSaudi consulate in Istanbul when the journalist entered. He wanted to get married a second time and needed some paperwork done. He didn’t have a chance. Audio tapes provided by Turkish intelligence revealed that a chain saw had been used to cut him into pieces before disposing of the body.

The world reacted.

There was nearly universal condemnation of the action as calls for justice rang loud.

American intelligence agencies reviewed the facts, listened to the audio tapes the Turkish government had provided and concluded that the assassination could not have happened without the reigning Saudi prince knowing about it.

But our president demurred. He said there was no clear proof. And anyway, our nation needed the oil and money the Saudis had.

Many were critical of the president while others supported him, saying that the world was a rough place and that, in the interest of realpolitik, we all have to swallow some hard facts. In other words, if you have the power, then you get away with it.

The journalist, in his idealism, had thought that standing for principle would give a special meaning to his life. As a man of conscience, he knew he could not turn a blind eye to the suffering of his fellow Saudi Arabians. He had worked as a foreign correspondent and travelled widely. He knew his country stood as an anachronism, out of synch with the rest of the emerging nations. And it pained him.

Saudi Arabia had the good fortune of being one of the leading oil producers, but the wealth was mainly kept by the royal family. Still that was not enough. The Saudi royals also enforced a rigid code that dictated what women could and could not do. And if you objected you were put in jail and kept there.

While in the rest of the world women rose to become heads of state, leading scientists and politicians, prominent artists, intellectuals and creators, in Saudi Arabia the royal family had a code to enforce. Keep the women down.

All of us that pumped gas, paid for the oil that kept the royal family in power while they oppressed more than half of their population.

A distinguished journalist and man of conscience had been savagely killed and our president, a businessman and father of an independent business woman, didn’t have any pangs of conscience with his decision to ignore the atrocity. If he did, he kept it to himself.

Saudi Arabia is an ally after all, his reasoning went. In addition to the oil, they are a player in the Middle East to help check Iran and they also buy their weapons from us. How can we lose?

Realpolitik they call it.

By now the journalist’s fate is gradually fading from the headlines. Soon he will be forgotten. Fellow journalists who are sympathetic to his cause will remember him but the public at large will forget.

Our president will meet with the prince and salute him and support him, and we’ll see it on TV, both men smiling.

But did it have to be that way?

Our president could have raised his voice and endorsed the findings of his intelligence services. He could have said, “a prominent journalist who chose to stand for more freedom in his country was murdered by the leadership.” He could have added that America would not stop investigating the crime. But our man did not do that.

Here was an opportunity for a world leader to influence the course of the history of a nation and instead he settled for oil and a contract to buy weapons. Never mind that we have become the top oil producer in the world.

There’s something wrong with that stance, isn’t there?

Yes. Something deeply wrong.

The president’s supporters should pay careful attention.

The man may call his decision an instance of realpolitik and that he is doing it for you. I call it an instance of being amoral and predict it will come back to hurt us.

But it’s not the first time, is it?

No. In fact, it’s happening here at home too, in full view, and we’re looking the other way.

Why?