Author: oscar valdes

Down in a Georgia Town. USA. 2020.

He saw him running down the street of their lovely neighborhood. But a black man running down our streets? Must be up to some mischief, thought A.

He quickly called his son and asked him to get in the truck, they were going to chase after him. Bring weapons, of course, you had to have those. And so they did.

They chased after the black man, caught up and yelled at him to stop, they needed to talk. But the black man was too scared to stop.

He could have. He just didn’t. Something about the rage in the white men asking him to halt.

A scuffle followed, fists flew, and shots were fired.

The black man fell to the ground, mortally wounded.

He was a neighbor it turned out, lived in the outskirts of town with his mother.

He had gone out for a jog, stopped by a construction site and went in to check it out. There were no signs barring him from doing so. He was curious and stepped in. He looked around for a while, then went back out and resumed his jog.

But A. and son had already set after him.

The killing was reported to the local authorities and was on its way to being buried and forgotten when someone in the court system leaked a video to the press.

The case became national news.

A. and son were arrested and charged with the black man’s murder.

Sitting alone in his cell, A. reflected on the incident. His life forever changed. He had never killed a man. Now he had.

But why?

If he thought the black man may have been up to mischief, he could’ve pulled up alongside him, asked him to please slow down, he just needed to ask him something. He could’ve done it without the rage in his eyes. He could have done it without the accusatory tone.

But he didn’t.

Why didn’t he?
The black man had been jogging. He was carrying nothing in his hands. But A. assumed the fellow had done something wrong. He had assumed a black man in a white man’s neighborhood would have to be up to some mischief. What else?

Sitting alone in his cell, A. reflected on the incident. His life now forever changed. But not only his life but his son’s life.

He didn’t like the feeling.

One thing was to have had all those preconceptions about black people, another was to have passed them on to his son.

He felt worse.

He had not examined his rage for black folks, and then passed it on to his son.

He was an old man, now. Retired. But his son was just starting out in life.

Why had he done that to him?

Why hadn’t he had the courage to say to him, ‘son, I have my views on race, but you need to make up your own mind. I may just be wrong about all this. I may just be wrong because I haven’t really thought about it real hard. So, son, you think about it. Think about it, make your own choices, and live your own life.’

As he sat in his cell, feeling alone and depressed, saddened that his life had come to this, what hurt him the most was that he had passed his hatred of others on to his son. What hurt him the most, was that he didn’t give his son permission to be his own man.

Sitting alone in his cell, A. kept reflecting on the incident.

He felt tired.

And just who had taught him to hate? Had he learned on his own? Had any black man ever injured him?

No one had.

When he was a young man he had thought of leaving his town and going somewhere else, see how other people thought about things, but he hadn‘t done it.

When his son was growing up, he had thought of telling him to go off, get away from this town, and find out how other people think in the world.

He had thought about it but hadn’t done it.

Now he regretted it.

Sitting alone in his cell, A. thought of himself as a trapped man. No one was holding him down or tying him up. He was trapped by his own views and thoughts. And what hurt him the most now, was that he had trapped his own son.

Every man had to be responsible for his actions. To do so every man had to have thoughts of his own.

Sitting alone in his cell, A. thought that he hadn’t put in the time to have thoughts of his own. Certainly not on the matter of race. And he hadn’t taught his son, either.

That’s what hurt him the most.

And it was on him.

Yes, it was.

He wanted to apologize to the mother of the man he had killed, yes, he did, but he wanted to apologize, most of all, to his own son, his own blood, whose life he had cursed.

To Reopen or Not

We have to. And if we’re careful about it we can do it.

Careful will mean keeping that important distance at all times. And being mindful that a mask which does not have a good fit simply won’t be enough protection if you’re talking to someone infected, even if they’re asymptomatic.

It’s also good to keep in mind the notion of dose.

It is not the same thing to touch a surface that has been previously touched by someone with the virus – and then putting your hands in your mouth or nose or eye – than to have a conversation at close range with someone who has the symptoms or have someone infected breathe or sneeze on you. In the latter case you’re sure to catch the bug, in the former it’s less likely, and if you do, your body will have a better chance of fighting it.

Masks have a positive deterrent effect. Even when the fit around the face is loose and consequently allows a path for the bug to reach you.

Masks tell us that we’re mindful of the spread of the virus. I hadn’t been wearing them unless I had to speak to someone at less than 6 ft, but now I’ve started doing it.

It is also a courtesy to passersby.

Who knows, one might have an unexpected fit of cough or a sneeze just as one draws near another person, whether masked or not.

Will wearing a mask keep me from catching the bug from someone infected who doesn’t yet know it (because the illness is incubating), if I’m seated next to them during a 4 hour plane flight? I would rather not take the chance. And for that reason I’m unlikely to hop on a plane anytime soon if I can avoid it. Tough on the airlines, tourism, hotels.

Can we adhere to safety precautions and conduct business at the same time? Sure we can.

But it will require an arrangement that instituted the safety measures.

I can see stores doing it. And even restaurants, though capacity will have to be reduced. But it will be hard on cinemas. It will be a while for me to step back into one.

Bars? Never mind.

But I think the University of California system is overreacting when it called for online classes this Fall. Surely students can be trusted to follow safety guidelines.

And what about doctors’ offices? So many have been closed. People are not going to stop getting sick for other reasons. Why force that needless back log and burden emergency rooms?

Basic protective equipment is available.

People who are sick need to be provided with means to support themselves while staying at home unless they have to be hospitalized. Doing so keeps the rest of us safe.

China, now much maligned for not supposedly doing enough to warn us of the perils of corona, had created fever clinics, where anyone with a fever could go and get checked. No costs attached.

A good idea is a good idea, no matter where it comes from.

If people who became symptomatic knew they had a place to go to get checked and, if sick, would be cared for and their expenses covered while ill, then they would be more likely to step up and get tested.

Public transport? Wear a mask and hope for the best. It will definitely put you at greater risk.

Do we then wait for Corona to pass on? We can’t.

There’s too much at stake. The economy won’t handle it.

Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, spoke today about the road ahead. He was not optimistic. We are in an economic contraction and it will take time to recover, even with congress providing relief measures. Lots of jobs may not be coming back as the worksite adjusts to the new reality, i.e. working from home, for instance.

We can’t wait around for the vaccine, can we?

No. It will take too long.

But we can get back to work safely if we are careful and respectful of others.

And why not learn from the rest of the world?

As of today, there have been nearly 85 thousand deaths here in the US, whereas in Japan, with a population of 125 million, there have been 675. That’s right. Six hundred and seventy five. In South Korea, next door, there have been fewer than 300 deaths (population of nearly 52 million), so they’re comparable to Japan.

China, with a population of 1.4 billion, has had less than 4700 deaths, and their economy is already up and running.

Surely there’s no harm in asking what they’ve done right and learning from it, is there?

Eating a little humble pie is in order.

One spoonful at a time.

Savoring it. Mmmm, yes.

Good for longevity too.

And we’ll be making America Great Again.

China and Trump

They’re beating him handily.

First he picked a fight with them over trade and intellectual property. It wasn’t that there weren’t real issues to be addressed, but our president had to make a great show of it. Defeat China, force her to her knees. But they didn’t go down.

Instead of working with our European allies to enlarge the negotiating bloc since they also were affected, he dismissed them. Trump thought he knew better. He would do it alone. After all, he had decades of experience making deals in New York buying and selling hotels.

But that hasn’t translated well into dealing effectively with the world, has it?

The trade war with China raised prices for us and led to huge subsidies to our farmers whose products China chose not to buy in retaliation. Eventually a deal was reached that favored the US slightly, but it was a pyrrhic victory because a lot of resentment was stirred.

Then came the virus.

China did what it had to do. That China is an autocratic and repressive regime there is no doubt, but they fixed their problem. They were heavy handed in quarantining and tracing their people, but they fixed their problem.

As of this writing, 4600 deaths from the virus have been reported in their nation of 1.4 billion and their economy is revving up again.

Contrast with over 71000 Americans deaths in a country of 330 million, less than a quarter the size of China.

Contrast with 550 deaths in Japan, with a population of 126 million, less than half of America’s.

So what happened?

Think on it for a moment.

Yes, that’s right. We screwed up. Big time.

That’s 71000 Americans.

The difference in the death tolls is not the price of freedom. It is the price of folly.

And that price keeps rising.

Known for our abundance we got caught off guard and scrambling for ventilators, for masks, for protective equipment to assist our burdened and valiant health workers.

What happened?

It is so sad, isn’t it?

It is not that we lack the productive capacity or the ingenuity or the will or the drive or enterprising push to get things done. No. It’s not that at all.

We knew the virus was coming.

On December 31st 2019 The Wuhan Health Commission alerted the Chinese National Health Commission and their CDC. That same day the World Health Organization (WHO) was also notified of the outbreak. Mind you, it took another 30 days to January the 30th, for the WHO to declare it a ‘public health emergency of international concern’ but on January the 23rd , Wuhan city, with 11 million people, was shut down. If that wasn’t a momentous event, then what is? When was the last time a city that size was shut down? To anyone paying attention it should’ve sent a big warning sign. Danger ahead! Watch out!

But we missed it.

Washington DC, America’s seat of power, was distracted.

Our great leader was tweeting on one or another inconsequential matter.

I can only imagine what was going through the president’s mind. When is my next rally? When will I, again, be showered with great praise?

His impeachment on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of congress had begun on December 18th 2019 and would not end until February 5th 2020. But all along the outcome was assured. With Republican Senators firmly under his control, Trump would be acquitted. Still he didn’t pay attention.

And the virus gathered force.

The president’s defense? Denial. Grand Denial.

It was like the flu, nothing more, it would go away quickly, he said. We, Americans, would be just fine.

71 thousand Americans have died since. The damage to the economy enormous.

Coronavirus was beyond his grasp like it is beyond him to apologize for not seeing it.

And the virus keeps pummeling us.

We’re all hoping for medical researchers to save us. Those gifted men and women from all over the world, who toil tirelessly to come up with a weapon that will stop the virus on its tracks.

But the White House cannot lead.

Just the other day, a global effort was put together to raise funds for vaccine research. We didn’t pitch in. Mind, you, there’s already much work being done here, but an American contribution to the grand effort would have been symbolic of the desire to join in and be part of a world team. We couldn’t do it.

Our Secretary of State, however, has been very busy trying to get other world leaders to agree to labelling coronavirus the Wuhan virus. But world leaders have not been persuaded.

Not wanting to stop blaming China, the president has spoken of imposing new tariffs in retaliation. They should’ve warned us, the White House says. China should’ve done more to prevent the catastrophe.

Well, they did. China made their own mistakes silencing doctors that told of the incipient outbreak, but eventually they turned around and got to work.

We didn’t.

But we could have.

We had plenty of time to take action and prevent the viral spread.

But all is not lost, is it? No. We can still put more blame on China, still time to make up a story that the Chinese actually manufactured the virus so they could inflict us great pain.

And for the gullible that might just do.

For the rest of us, however, let the virus be a warning of what we must do to remain a strong nation.

One key ingredient is to be willing to face the facts as they are and not deny them, to be able to see the truth and act decisively.

And no, China is not in descent as a nation. Let us not delude ourselves. Their economy has temporarily contracted but they remain a powerful engine of growth, a huge market to the world and a mighty rival.

And yes, the spirit of entrepreneurship is alive and well in that land, entrepreneurs contributing significantly to their GDP and representing a huge source of employment for their countrymen.

Eventually, that spirit will prevail in China and their system of government will change.

Meanwhile, we’d better give up the idea that the future is ours. It is not. We have to make it our own, and to do so we must be willing to face the facts at home and abroad and act accordingly.

With a population less than a quarter of China’s size, America’s openness to immigrants and our commitment to freedom of speech, we have a great advantage. But let’s watch out. A short sighted, tribal leader, can squander it all. In less than one term in office.

So What Are They Doing in Japan?

As of today, they have had 6701 cases with only 101 deaths. Unbelievable.

They are next to South Korea which got hit big.

Is it their custom of not shaking hands but bowing instead when they greet? Or their washing of hands often?

A country with a population of 126 million is showing a stunningly small incidence of infections and deaths.

I hear little in the news about this remarkable difference.

They’re doing something the rest of us have not.

Or were they wise to implement safeguards as the infection spread from China?

We all could use more information from their experience, and if too late for this edition of the virus, certainly to prepare for the next one.

Japanese authorities, please don’t be shy and let the world know.

Thanks

China Has Arrived

There is a certain majesty to China’s move to command the world stage. As the number of infected and dead rise worldwide, China is stepping up and saying ‘We have got this. We mitigated as was necessary and we have controlled the coronavirus epidemic.’

So far, the results back the assertion. Their economy is starting up again and, filled with confidence, are now sending experts to aid other nations in the grip of the virus, such as Iran and Italy. They are even building hospitals for them.

The Chinese did it.

And they deserve recognition.

China went into full battle with the virus and has come out ahead (South Korea has done the same).

The Chinese imposed severe restrictions on movement, mobilized resources, and got the job done. My hat off to them.

The Chinese do not deserve, to have the US try to devalue them by calling the virus the Wuhan virus. What that shows is how envious the present American leadership is. Trump and company had ample time to take the necessary steps to prevent the wide spread of the disease but instead wasted the opportunity. Is there a word for it? Yes. It is Denial. Massive Denial.

Preoccupied with lesser and partisan concerns, i.e. the building of the wall, his impeachment, Mr Trump could not think ahead to what was looming and how it endangered the lives of Americans. He could not bother to summon the multitude of experts the nation has at its disposal, because he needed to attend the political rallies that he requires to prop up his confidence.

Surely, the crowds chanted vigorously, Make America Great Again! just as dark clouds drifted menacingly in our direction.

The preoccupation with getting elected, prevented the president from hearing the advice that would have led to us having the necessary masks and testing kits and ventilators. But to think in those terms, requires a mind that is free to rise above partisan concerns and look beyond.

Mr Trump could not do that.

As of today, our nation has had nearly 4 thousand deaths from the virus, a figure larger than China’s, with a population 4 times the size of ours. And the forecast of future deaths is ominous.

Consumed as we are with tending to our own, we must now cede the stage to China, and we must because they were vastly more effective than we have been.

It would do us a world of good to recognize it.

It would do us a world of good to state openly, that China has done a most competent job at saving lives. Even as they segregate Uighurs and curtail freedoms to their citizens, which stains their standing as a leading nation.

And yet, as things stand, it would do us a world of good to be frank and upright and recognize that, in combatting the virus, they have done a better job than we have.

As we endeavor to follow the instructions to slow the spread of the disease, we will soon limit the lurid escalation of the death rate. There are already signs that the rate of infection is beginning to slow.

But our economy has suffered a major hit, many businesses will not reopen and unemployment is soaring.

Who knows how long this contraction will last.

China’s economy, by contrast, is revving up and, for now, will be the dominant world economy.

It will do us a world of good, our leaders foremost, to recognize it.

It wasn’t long ago, that nations in need would have looked to our country for urgent assistance.

Preoccupied with divisive concerns, we have shirked from the world, and now we see the cost.

There’s a price to pay for being short sighted.

A price to pay in lives and in prestige.

That matters.

Day 3 After National Emergency Declaration. China versus US, South Korea, Europe, Japan etc.

After the first case appeared in December 2019, China bungled the initial response, which made things worse. Since then, however, they’ve managed to halt the spread of the virus.

We bungled in our own way, because with knowledge of what had started in Wuhan, and that in the age of travel an ocean is not a barrier, our response could’ve been more effective. For instance, we could’ve had plenty of testing kits for the virus.

So they bungled and we bungled also.

Now for the second phase. China instituted strict quarantines. Their economy has taken a hit but they’ve halted the spread of the virus. Those results are a challenge to us.

Can our open society, with a plurality of voices and a wide diversity of competencies and political views, manage to present a united front to stem the tide of infections and limit the damage so it’s less that what China has endured?

The battle is on. The number of infected cases and deaths will tell the story.

The stock market (which is not the economy but tells us something about it) plunged another 3 thousand points today.

The virus has already sent us into a bear market. With the severe contraction in the service sector, most economists agree we’re headed for a recession.

There is consensus that this is not 2008. The disruptive force is not buried within our financial system but swimming in our body fluids, so this is very different.

China is ahead of the game. How they do, how quickly their economy bounces back, will tell us a great deal. If they pull out of the stagnation they’re in we will know that at least one path works. Maybe ours will too, but we’ll know that theirs works for sure.

The hope is that, once their travel restrictions are lifted, the infection will not return. I am definitely pulling for them. And if the infection does not return then their economy will start to climb back.

There’s much more at stake here than getting over the virus. There’s the sense, at least in a lot of people watching these developments, that contrasting political systems are in fierce competition; that overbearing state control is being pitted against individual liberty.

I don’t have any doubt in which world I like to live, and will do what I can to make sure we control the spread of the virus.

Pasadena was dark and rainy today.

Most eateries were doing take out business only, but the mood seemed positive.

This morning I went into a store to buy some fresh vegetables and the shelves were barren. I was able to get some other things I needed. I have yet to find hand sanitizers but put my name on a list at a specialty pharmacy. A single surgical mask was going for 6 dollars. I passed.

One prediction has it that sooner or later, all of us will catch the virus. But the longer it takes for most of us to get infected, the more likely it will be that we’ll have the resources to help us heal.

At an early morning appointment with my dental hygienist, I mentioned that coronavirus was showing us how interdependent we are. ‘Yes,’ she answered, ‘it’s humbling.’

No cough, no fever.

We’re going to beat this.

Good night.

Day 2 After National Emergency Declaration

The incidence of cases keeps climbing. China, Singapore and Japan and perhaps the UK seem to be keeping a lid on the numbers but Italy’s figures are jumping.

In California, people 65 and older are asked to stay home. Theatres and restaurants are closing and the CDC recommends that social gatherings be limited to 50 people.

The economy is widely expected to contract for this quarter and the next which would put us in recession territory. In a calming move the Federal Reserve announced that the interest rate would be slashed to near zero.

There were more people out today in Pasadena. Some restaurants were open, others closed. It was a pretty day overall.

Until testing is widely available I’ll monitor my condition and only go in to urgent care or my doctor’s office if I develop a cough and a fever.

I read that the nation’s food supply is ample so I’m okay for now.

Tomorrow I won’t be walking into a Starbucks. They’ve gone to online only.

If testing were widely available, I’d get tested but that is not yet possible.

I expect to go to work Tuesday, unless I hear from my work site.

My priority, of course, is to not catch this virus.

I’m getting better at not touching my face, but it’s a struggle. I’m more aware of it when I step out. When I do, I’ve assigned my left hand to open doors, keeping my right hand for anything that would touch food.

I watched the debate between Biden and Sanders. Biden brought up the importance of getting the military involved. I think it’s necessary. This being a national emergency, the government should also be repurposing private industry to make the kinds of machinery that we will need to help us save lives, such as respirators. The virus is especially hard on the lungs and the supportive assistance the respirators provide will make the difference between life and death.

With the military involved, we will be able to improvise enough additional hospital space to tend to the greater number we expect to be infected.

The coronavirus has declared war on us and we have to fight back.

No need to panic. We’ll get through this.

I was glad to see Biden commit to selecting a woman as VP. I thought it was the high point of the debate. Sanders wavered when asked if he’d go along with that but then said yes, most likely.

If you can go out for a walk during the day, do so. It will boost your immunity and clear your mind.

Good night.

Day One after National Emergency Declaration. A Public National Registry of Cases?

Yesterday, Mr Trump declared the coronavirus pandemic a national emergency. On the news, the stock market was up. Today, however, Mr Trump spoke of wanting to replace Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman. The likelihood then, is that the market will drop again.

I find it reassuring that the world map tracking the spread of the virus, shows the figures in China stable at 80 thousand plus and the figures in Japan barely over 1400. It tells me that the virus spread can be controlled, that we can do this.

A friend of mine and I were scheduled to meet today and, of course, we thought of whether it would be advisable. We met anyway. Something about friendship boosting our immune systems.

Still, the city of Pasadena, where I live, was largely empty. On a Saturday night, otherwise busy restaurants had only a few patrons. The streets had few cars. An ice cream parlor was closed.

When will the rising tide of infections crest? It’s anybody’s guess.

The recommendation is out for everyone to stockpile food supplies. I always have a few days’ worth as a matter of common sense since I live in earthquake country, but to expand on it is not appealing. Not yet, anyway.

I will eat out more, I say to myself. I suppose it’s in keeping with the part of me that likes to buck the trend, but I can also say that I’m supporting local businesses in the process. Anyway, the lines are short.

Should I fall sick, however, I would quarantine myself and ask to be tested. But I’m not there yet and maybe will not be. I tend to be an optimist.

I am washing my hands, more carefully than ever, avoiding hand shaking and reminding myself to not touch my face (not easy to do).

I am avoiding theatres, but still get my hot choco at the local starbucks.

One step at a time.

I would like to be able to read about how people have recovered, and if not, then why. It would be informative and confidence building. Why not create, then, a national registry of cases where a synopsis of cases was entered on a daily basis and posted online by major newspapers, viewable for free. The synopses would include a doctor’s comments on the course of the illness.  

Food for thought.

I read about measures to protect our elderly and infirm. It is heartening. To know that for those who are at the end of life, with their productive capacities spent or markedly diminished, a genuine effort is being made to keep them with us.

For all the devastation it has created, coronavirus is reminding us of our humanity.

May the pandemic be soon controlled.

And may the warm sentiments it evokes, stay with us forever.

Good night.

Market Drop on 3/9. Reversible?

Yes. There are two potentially reversible causes. The coronavirus and Saudi Arabia’s decision to increase oil supply and flood the market.

Take the first.

Imagine for a moment, that we began to see a drop in the incidence of cases. A few days of such a trend would lighten our heavy hearts. Possible? Of course.

Today I read an article in the latest issue of the New England Journal of Medicine (3/5/2020). It carried a brief report of the first case of coronavirus in the country. A 35 year old man in good health otherwise, had returned from Wuhan, China and, after a 4 day history of cough and subjective fever, presented himself on 1/19/20 to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County in Washington state. He was tested and the next day the CDC confirmed he had Covid-19. He did develop signs of an atypical pneumonia but by 1/30 all his symptoms had resolved except for the cough which was decreasing.

In the same issue, a hospital in Munich, Germany reported that 4 people had developed symptoms after exposure to a person who had visited from China but was asymptomatic while in Germany. She developed symptoms on her flight back to China, sought help and her contacts were traced. Of those German contacts, 4 became ill. Persons 1 and 2 had been in direct contact with the visitor, while persons 3 and 4 had only been in contact with persons 1 and 2. None had shown signs of a severe illness.

So, yes, this illness can be controlled.

Of course, if you’re already ill, your chances of recovery are lower but the illness can be controlled.

What about if we had an online summary of cases, or a sample of them, with both good and bad outcomes, so we could all check in?

Maybe we wouldn’t panic so much about this. Maybe we would be more rational.

Openness is good.

We need it.

Now I turn to the second reversible cause, the drop in the price of oil.

The Saudis and Putin have feuded before and will again. This time, though, with oil demand already low, the timing is disastrous for some of our industries.

Price of gas cheaper? Sure. But what about our shale oil producers? What about all those industries deeply connected with them? How many companies will go under?

Word is that Putin has wanted to put a good bruise on those industries of ours, since we have become a major exporter of oil and thus compete directly with Russia.

Well, now the Saudi Prince, with his intemperate action, will do what Putin has wanted.

Dear Mr Trump, was this prince not the same man who our intelligence agencies have said is responsible for the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi embassy in Ankara, Turkey?

You did not hold him accountable then.

Will you hold him accountable now for the damage he is doing to our economy?

Just a phone call away, Mr Trump, just a phone call away.

Where Is Our Leader?

Where is the leader that we need in this time of fear?

Where is he, or she?

Why can’t we have someone step up and say,

‘Fellow Americans, we will beat the coronavirus,

We will beat it.

We will pull together, all of us,

And helping each other beat back the virus!

Yes, we will push it back!

Our nation will not be defeated by the virus,

Our country will not be disabled,

America will not be destroyed by it.

We are stronger than coronavirus.

We have the resources to beat it.

So hear me well,

Republican or Democrat,

The government has your back,

You will get the service you need,

You will get the assistance you require,

We will not be destroyed by the virus.

We will defeat the virus.’

We need to be hearing this every day during this crisis.

Someone, must step into the void we how have

And say those things to all of us,

Every single day,

And say it with conviction,

Say it so we can believe you.

We must hear this

To bolster our stamina and commitment,

To raise our hopes.

We need this now.