Oscar Valdes

The Child Tax Credit and Social Evolution

A few days ago, Biden signed into law a new version of the Child Tax credit. The intent is to bolster the income of poor families in America, in need of relief from the growing cost of raising their children.

From its inception, in 1997, the tax credit has been limited to families who have been employed and thus paid taxes.

Critics now counter that many of the new beneficiaries have neither worked nor paid taxes.

But according to the Treasury department, 97% of the families set to benefit do have wages or self employment income and the other 3% are grandparents or have health issues.

The expectations are that 35 million families will receive the benefit ($500 a month for child under 5, and $250 per child between 5 and 17) and so help lift them out of poverty.

Although presently scheduled to last one year, the hope is the revised law will be extended.

Here is a conversation between a supporter and an opponent of the new measure.

Wayne – It’s giveaway money. Biden looking for extra votes. Do these people really work?

Tricia – Biden says they do, many being self employed.

Wayne – Smells like giveaway.

Tricia – Wayne…. the majority are poor people. It takes money to provide for kids’ necessities, keep enough food on the table, send them to school.

Wayne – So why not call it Free Money for people who don’t practice contraception?

Tricia – Poverty is poverty, contraception or not.

Wayne – Think about it, pop a kid and get 5 hundred a month til they are 5, then 250 til they are 17. Have 5 kids, that’s 2500 a month. What a deal.

Tricia – Really? Let’s do the math. $2500 a month x 12 equals $30000 a year, to take care of 5 kids. I can tell you have no idea of what it takes to raise a kid.

Wayne – (not persuaded) Add to it the Supplemental Nutritional program, then apply for section 8 so you can get free housing and you don’t have to lift a finger. All courtesy of the US government. Oh, I forgot Medicaid for the healthcare part and throw in dental, vision and hearing. You can just sit home and raise kids. No wonder the national debt keeps rising. These people will never work, and they’ll teach their kids to not do so themselves.

Tricia – Okay… so we let them live in poverty? Or are you saying that what they’re getting is middle class fare? Because if you think that, then you’re deluded. Everything you’ve mentioned are measures to keep alive in the 21^st century. No more than that.

If they don’t get housing they get to camp out on the street. If they don’t get medical care, then they catch an infectious disease and they transmit it to others. Or they are crippled by it and it’s worse.

All the ‘goodies’ you’ve described, and which you object to giving, are bare essentials in modern living.

Are there people who are satisfied with just that? Yes, indeed. But the majority would like to do something with their lives, and it’s our responsibility to assist them.

Wayne – Our responsibility? Not at all. That’s where we disagree. It is their responsibility. Their responsibility to take risks and make the sustained efforts to move up the ladder.

Tricia – What ladder? If you don’t get a decent education, then you don’t get a chance to put a foot on the ladder. Never mind climbing it. Your argument, Wayne, is most unpsychological.

Where do you think people in those circumstances get to live? What schools do they get to attend? What educational enrichment assistance are they offered?

The answer is none.

Those are the kids who are likely to grow up in the midst of maladapted folks, people who teach the bad habits and ensure the cycle of poverty is perpetuated. Call it passing on social deformities. Abuse, drug dependence, gang affiliations. And so the gap widens.

The point of providing assistance is to break that pernicious sequence.

And it can happen if we invest. And invest consistently, year after year.

Wayne – Why have kids if you can’t support them?

Tricia – People who have been knocked down by life may have only their children to give them hope.

Wayne – That reasoning sounds like passing the buck. What these people should be asking is, ‘what’s wrong with me? What do I have to do to fix it?

Tricia – You and I have a decent income… we’ve had the fortune of having got an education… we take care of our necessities and have room to spare. The people who this tax credit is intended to help, have none of that. When they thought of conceiving a child, perhaps they had already done much soul searching and yet not found in themselves the strength to go on. A child is a source of joy, and for most of us, a new beginning.

Wayne – At our expense. You and I paying the taxes.

They pause.

Tricia – Let’s talk demographics for a minute.

Wayne – I know where you’re headed. Low fertility rates. But automation will take care of that.

Tricia – No it won’t. We need people. You’ll agree that, on average, the better educated women are, the fewer the children they’re likely to have, right?

Wayne – Sure.

Tricia – I’ve had only two children. I thought of a third but then decided against it because I wanted to spend my time doing other things than raising a child.

Wayne – Understood.

Tricia – And no matter how well I provide for my children, how stimulating an environment I give them, there is no guarantee that they will have the intellectual and emotional equipment to be trail blazers. No guarantee that they will open new horizons for humankind to move toward.

Wayne – You think great talent can come from anywhere?

Tricia – Oh, yes. And so it is our duty to safeguard those possibilities.

Wayne – I’ll have to think about that one.

Tricia – It is our duty to treat every single child, no matter what poverty they were born into, with all they need so they can develop whatever talents nature endowed them with.

Wayne – For the good of the future of society?

Tricia – Yes. But there’s still another reason to support the Child Tax credit. A selfish one.

Wayne – What’s that?

Tricia – It reinforces our humanity. It is us saying, ‘let us help children be all they can be… for they will not forget… and give back to us in return.’

Wayne – I just worry that we’re taken advantage of. I don’t like that.

Tricia – Neither do I. Some people will misuse the funds…

Wayne – Just like there are rich people who cheat on taxes.

Tricia – Exactly. But there will be far more who will be grateful… and so help raise better citizens…

Wayne – I hope you’re right.

I admit that sometimes we are too slow in responding to health crises. I had a cousin who died of an opioid overdose 10 years ago. We were still recovering from the housing crisis.

Tricia – Sorry about that. Were you close to him?

Wayne – Not really. We grew up together but then I moved and didn’t keep up with him. He had been working in a factory but it closed and he couldn’t find another job.

Tricia – Rough.

Wayne – The thing is… I thought he was a little lazy… not tough enough… but I missed the fact that he was in pain. I’m ashamed about that.

Tricia reaches over and rubs Wayne’s shoulder.

Wayne – I went to the funeral… talked to my aunt, his mother… she told me he really tried to get help… but there was very little around… the state had been too slow to respond.

Now I call my aunt every couple of months to see how she’s doing… if she needs anything.

Tricia – That’s nice of you.

Wayne – I wish I’d done it before. He never did reach out to me. Maybe his pride got in the way.

She’s raising his son. He’s 12 now.

Tricia – What about the child’s mother?

Wayne – She left after my cousin died. She hasn’t heard from her since. Couldn’t cope with it, said my aunt. The loss.

Tricia – Maybe one day she’ll find her way back.

Wayne – Hope so.

He turns to look a Tricia.

Wayne – I hadn’t talked about this in a while. Thanks.

Tricia – You’re welcome.

Wayne – It’s easy to miss the pain others are going through.

Tricia lowers her head. Wayne looks off.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net

Cuba and The Embargo

Recently, in response to the loss of life inflicted by the pandemic and a worsening of food shortages, protests erupted throughout the island calling for relief and in some instances for the end of the dictatorship.

The tone and intensity of the demonstrations was heated enough that it prompted Cuba’s new president – Miguel Diaz Canel – to call on the regime’s loyal citizens to pour into the streets and show their support for the government.

Diaz Canel himself, went to speak to the citizens directly. As he walked by a house in the town of San Antonio de Los Banos, where the protests had started, he stopped to talk to a woman who was sitting by her window.

He greeted her.

She recognized him and smiled in response.

Not far off, a group of antigovernment demonstrators could be heard as they marched under the vigilant eyes of the police.

‘What do you think of all of this?’ he asked the woman.

‘I knew it was going to happen, sooner or later,’ said she.

‘I understand,’ replied Diaz Canel, ‘but we have to be disciplined.’

The woman was careful to measure her words.

‘I understand… but it’s too much. Why haven’t we been able to get the vaccines?’

‘China has helped us out but they have only so much to go around. They’re helping people all over the world,’ said Diaz Canel.

‘I thought we were producing our own vaccines?’

‘We have been working on it but we don’t have enough resources. It takes the inputs from many specialized sectors in other countries, for everything to come together and produce the vaccine. But if we didn’t have the embargo, we would’ve been able to deal with it.’

The woman looked down at her windowsill.

This was her chance to speak up.

She had never had the opportunity to speak directly to the president of Cuba. She had briefly met both Fidel and Raul Castro a few times in her 62 years – Cuba was a small country – but never was in a verbal exchange with them. Now Fidel was dead and Raul had retired. Diaz Canel was the first president to follow the Castro brothers.

‘Why is it that we always blame the American embargo for everything we cannot solve?’ she finally asked.

There it was. She had said it.

Diaz Canel was surprised by the firmness of her voice.

‘We don’t have the chance to trade…’ he began but she cut him short.

‘We could trade with all of Latin America… with China and Vietnam and Europe and Africa and Canada… but if we don’t make enough things to trade, isn’t that our own fault? Why do we keep blaming the Americans? Why don’t we, instead, give people incentives to work? Give them incentives to create?’

Diaz Canel’s expression showed his irritation but he didn’t back off. ‘Look, we have one of the highest rates of literacy and one of the lowest rates of infant mortality… we send doctors all over the world to help other nations…’

The woman just stared at him, a faint smile in her eyes, as if saying… ‘So we do… and yet…?’

Diaz Canel paused and smiled at the irony. Yes, Cuba was sending doctors all over the world but the country was not dealing effectively with the pandemic. Nor with providing enough food for its citizens.

‘Something is wrong, isn’t it?’ she pressed. ‘Look, I understand that the revolution wanted to create a new man… but 62 years later it hasn’t delivered. We’re a creative people but we are blocked.’ She hesitated briefly before continuing for she knew she would say things that might come back to hurt her, but something impelled her to speak her mind forcefully.

‘The government is overcontrolling the people… we’re not made to be so restrained… no one is… people need space to come up with ideas and try them out. I’ve been a teacher for 39 years… we’re not equal… every one of my students is different… some are more intelligent than others… some have more courage than others… some are stronger than others… some are more imaginative… some are more ambitious… some more tenacious or hard working… and we need to let them interact freely with each other so they can find their place in the world. There is a role for government… yes… a role for a system that keeps the peace and helps resolve disputes and protects people from being taken advantage of… but in the end, Mr President…’ She wanted to reassure Diaz Canel that she understood clearly whom she was talking to and was grateful for the opportunity, ‘… in the end, Sir, we are not equal… like you and me are not equal… and that is okay. That doesn’t mean that we should not be kind to each other, on the contrary, that is the more reason to be so… but I really believe… from having seen so many children grow up before my eyes… that Cuba will be much better off… if the government backs off and lets people invent and trade and maximize their individual possibilities… whatever they may be. In the end, Mr Diaz, all of us have a better chance of capturing who we really are… if we are allowed to be unequal… for that is the only way that every person will come into their own powers.’

Diaz Canel nodded lightly. He looked off. The sounds of the demonstrators nearby were now fading somewhat. He had listened carefully to the woman and acknowledged that it had taken him a bit of effort to do so… but was thankful he had.

‘What is your name?’ he asked.

She thought of not telling him… but no, she could not do that to herself. She had been waiting a long time for this moment, and so had her mother before her who had blessed her with her name.

‘My name…’ she began, as she looked directly at Diaz Canel, ‘is Viva… my middle initial is L., for La, and my last name is Libertad. I was born on the 1^st of January 1959 in Havana, just as Fidel and his troops came roaring triumphantly into the city. My mother, in the early days of December and already in her ninth month of her pregnancy, had changed her last name to Libertad. She wanted her new child, whether boy or girl, to have Libertad branded into them.’

‘Viva La Libertad,’ said Diaz Canel. ‘Pretty name.’

‘Thank you,’ Viva said. ‘And thank you for listening.’

‘You are welcome,’ he replied.

And with a nod he bid her goodbye and walked off down the street, his entourage in tow.

She looked after him and wondered whether Diaz Canel would remember their conversation, and whether one day, in the near future, her beloved Cuba might change course and let her people have a go at finding their own strengths.

She was a realist, too… but she didn’t want to lose hope.

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net

Afghanistan and America. The Similarities

Dear Mr Biden:

Read your speech on Afghanistan today at the White House.

Thank you for that.

Even though you speak of American support for the Afghan forces, there’s the growing doubt that the army we helped train, does not inspire the confidence they will fight the good fight once we leave.

You have assured us we are doing much to secure the safety of those who worked with us, through the granting of visas to the US or temporary relocation outside of Afghanistan until such visas are granted.

Thank you for that.

And yet some people have not chosen such option, instead preferring to stay, at least for now.

Surely they are animated by the desire to stand up for their nation.

I have read elsewhere (the Wall Street Journal) that hundreds of thousands of Afghan nationals, fearing the worst, have already left the country.

Your anecdote about a schoolgirl saying she wanted to be a doctor and asking America not to leave because otherwise she wouldn’t realize her dreams, was poignant.

Throughout your speech, there was a tone of inevitability mixed with much hope.

You said we had not gone there to nation build. You are right.

Yes, Afghans have their fate in their hands. They always did.

In the WS Journal article, I read of a woman who is a musician. That is what she loves. And yet to the Taliban her music is un-Islamic. Where will she fit? She won’t.

The article mentions that Kabul has been transformed into a cosmopolitan center where western influence is all around.

And yet to the Taliban that will surely be anathema.

The clash of cultures is inevitable.

Western influence brought freedom of expression and career opportunities that were quickly taken advantage of by the locals and yet a movement of sufficient strength to resist the Taliban was not formed.

The sharp divide with the culture prevailing in the countryside remained. And the brutality of the Taliban kept growing. Surely there is much envy at the root of such discord. But it was not addressed.

For one reason or another, a strong leader did not emerge to stand up for all the advantages western influence brought to that country.

A strong leader did not emerge to remind the westernized section, that their gains had to be defended, that discipline and sacrifice would have to be called upon to defend what they were enjoying and helping them prosper.

I’ve read that tribal leaders in Afghanistan continue to section the country to their advantage but to the detriment of a united front. To date, there has been no willingness to compromise in the interest of national unity.

It is a sad story.

There was Hamid Karzai before and now Ashraf Ghani, but neither was able to stir a spirit of national unity that Afghans were willing to defend. Such struggle never became an essential task.

At a time when here in America we are profoundly divided, we can learn a great deal from the Afghan story.

We have to talk to each other. It is now a national priority. Right up there with climate change and immigration reform and infrastructure building and better education and healthcare and improved broadband.

The task is sufficiently important to require a cabinet position and your constant attention.

Talking to each other is key to any enterprise we wish to embark on as a nation.

If we don’t get back to building those bridges to each other, the spirit of collective purpose will keep waning, and the price we will pay for it will grow dearer.

Afghanistan is a lesson for us today.

Thank you

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net

Horizontal and Vertical Thinking

When interacting with others it is useful to keep these two variations in mind.

Nature has endowed humankind with an infinite variety of potential abilities and it is up to us to develop our individual share as we make our way in the world.

In time, if cultivated, those differences become more marked.

How we view and manage such differences is an important challenge to all.

Enter horizontal versus vertical thinking.

In vertical thinking we picture ourselves as part of a hierarchy. Those with more of C or D or E, will place higher up on the vertical axis. Say that we call C money, D natural gifts and E physical appearance. Consciously or not, we will tend to rank ourselves as better or worse when seeing where we place along the axis.

A person may say they have more C than Pete but less than Eileen and thus grade themselves accordingly. Same for measurements of D or E.

For some, this perception may be an impetus to try harder to move up the vertical. For others it may be seen as oppressive. As if those on top get to dominate those below them.

Enter horizontal thinking.

In this approach, we say to ourselves that all of us have a place along the continuum. Some may have more or less of C or D or E, but what is stressed is our uniqueness.

All of us have a set of capabilities that if developed are likely to bring us much satisfaction.

Say that Raven and I both play the guitar but she makes lovelier sounds with it than I do. One approach is to say, so be it. I can still enjoy the sounds I make, let her have hers.

But other people may handle the matter another way.

Years ago, I read of a musician who was a trumpet player. He had worked hard at his craft and clearly enjoyed it. Then one day he heard another trumpeter perform and he was blown away by the magic that person made with the same instrument. The musician got angry at himself. How was it that he could he not play as well, after all the work he’d put into it? He could not accept it.

On his way back home, as he walked over a bridge, he threw his trumpet into the river. Don’t know if he ever played again or not. In a fit of rage at the perception of difference, he denied himself the pleasure of what music he could make.

He could’ve used a little horizontal thinking.

There will always be someone who does something better than anyone of us, but that is no reason to give up on working at it if it brings us satisfaction.

Furthermore, the sounds of one trumpet player may be excellent on one scale, and yet the sounds of another, less skilled, may take us on a unique and still rewarding path.

The horizontal axis allows for the expansion of any given ability. And as such it may help discover roads to unexpected places.

Thinking and doing along the horizontal continuum allows for greater variety.

Nature has wanted that for us.

The vertical axis, while useful and essential in certain settings, stresses dominance.

And much may be lost if we adhere solely to that view.

Oscarvaldes.net

Biden. Building Bridges

Dear Mr Biden:

The likelihood is that there will be no miracles in Afghanistan and the forces of Afghan nationals we trained will not be able to hold back a surging Taliban.

Miracles do happen and maybe we’ll get lucky.

But just in case they don’t come through, this is a great opportunity for you to begin a series of talks with the American people about what went wrong and why it is time to move on.

As I said in an earlier blog, I agree with your decision to pull out.

Still, it will be painful to see the Taliban claim victory after 20 years of sustained efforts by us and our allies.

Thus, the American people needs to hear from you.

Hear from you as in you talking us through the pain of the loss.

There is much pain in that troubled land and there will be even more after we leave but there is much pain here in our nation, too, which addressing has long been deferred.

We need to leave Afghanistan because our resources are not limitless.

We need to hear that.

Twenty years we invested in that country and while we made our share of mistakes we were also undermined by many, including our ally Pakistan. Maybe that needs to be brought up, too.

But here at home our divisions are crippling us.

We need to hear that.

As you often said during the campaign, you want America to lead by the power of our example and not by the example of our power.

And so you have rightly committed to nation building.

You have already set the wheels in motion but the road ahead is filled with difficulty.

‘So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is… fear itself… which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance,’ FDR famously said in his inaugural address in 1933.

Much of what ails us now springs from a lack of trust in our ability to listen to each other. To listen and strive to understand.

I have no doubt that by your example, we may better be able to do so.

A weekly talk, say 15 minutes, with you addressing us all, Republicans and Democrats, will make a difference.

Please do consider this option.

After all, what is there to fear but fear itself.

Good luck

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net

Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin Meet. Spring 2021

They greet outside a heavily guarded country home in an undisclosed location, each man flanked by his trusted interpreter.

The two men shake hands amicably. Clearly, they have been at the same site before.

Xi – Good to see you.

Putin – Have been looking forward to this, as always.

They turn and step into a short hallway at which end a large double door opens to reveal an ample room with padded chairs facing each other and smaller seats adjacent for the interpreters.

The men stride in and take their seats.

Two attendants are standing by an elegantly draped table covered with delicacies and an assortment of drinks.

Xi and Putin nod at the table attendants and that is their cue to exit the room, so no one else except the interpreters remains with them.

Putin – How is the family?

Xi – Very well, and yours?

Putin – Very well also. Thank you.

Xi – They send greetings.

Putin – And so does my family.

Xi – Thank you.

Putin – Congratulations on landing the rover in Mars.

Xi – Thank you. We are very proud of that accomplishment. It took a lot of planning and commitment.

Putin – The world got to see that nothing will stop you.

Xi – Exactly. And we are just getting started.

Putin – How is the Belt and Road initiative coming along?

Xi – Fabulously. We’re very pleased.

Putin – What does the Belt stand for?

Xi – What we’re putting around their necks to tighten if we have to.

Putin laughs.

Xi – We are generous, but we need to get something back for our investment.

Putin – Of course.

Xi – How was your meeting with Biden?

Putin – Productive. He listens. I think I can work with him.

Xi – I liked the way you spoke at the press conference following the meeting… denied any Russian involvement in cyberattacks on America, blaming them instead for attacking the rest of us.

Putin – Keeping it simple. I like the way you’re managing the Uyghur problem.

Xi – Eventually, everyone will realize we won’t change our minds. If the world wants cheap cotton and tomatoes and polysilicon for solar panels, Uyghur labor will help provide it.

Putin – Are you really trying to make them more Chinese… the Uyghurs?

Xi – Of course. But they’re hard headed. So we teach them the right way.

Putin – I’m impressed by how the rest of China doesn’t seem to mind.

Xi – There’s not much they can do about it, and it’s all about helping China get stronger. Chinese people get that.

Putin – Trump didn’t seem to mind. He wasn’t critical of the way you’ve handled the matter.

Xi – He understands. Have you heard from him?

Putin – Have not. He’s probably a little depressed… not having all that attention he so enjoyed.

Xi – Reminds me of what life would be like if I ever agreed to step down. I can better understand why Mao wanted to stay on until the end.

Putin – I feel the same way.

Xi – And so we will govern until our last breath.

Putin – Yes.

Xi – Tell me about Alexei Navalny. I heard Biden wanted you to ensure his safety.

Putin – Yes. I went and visited him in prison, even before my meeting with Biden. I had never met Navalny.

Xi – What was that like?

Putin – He has these romantic ideas about what Russians want. How Russians are desperate for freedom of expression. Makes you wonder if they ever talk to other Russians and not just to themselves.

Xi – Will he survive prison? Biden seemed worried about that.

Putin – I will do everything possible.

Xi – Of course. You think they’ll award him the Nobel Prize for peace, Navalny?

Putin – It’s a political move, but prize or no prize, he’ll stay right there in prison.

Xi – Does it worry you that he’s started something that could, possibly, force you out?

Putin – I’ve been in power since 1999 and Russians have come to appreciate the peace at home and the respect we now have from the rest of the world. They know it’s happened because of me.

Xi – I came to power in 2013 and I can also say that my people feel great pride in being respected all over the world. That had never happened before. The one thing that many keep criticizing us about is the lack of freedom. But it’s a misconception. A thinking error. We cannot have freedom without discipline. Discipline to make sure everyone is making their contribution to the great plan for the nation.

Putin – I agree. Americans keep talking about it as if you could have it without restrictions. We have freedom in Russia. You can start a business. You can go to university. You can travel. You can even organize politically but within certain limits.

Xi – The limits being that you remain in power.

They both laugh.

Xi – Same in China. Americans talk a lot about freedom but nowhere in the world do people shoot each other like they do. I find it incredible that people in Texas worship having the right to carry a gun, as if that were real freedom. If there were real freedom in that land, people wouldn’t be so paranoid.

Putin – Too much inequality breeds paranoia.

Xi – Their real freedom is their right to vote and elect who you want.

Xi has surprised himself with the last statement.

Xi – (an embarrassed look at Putin) I did say that, didn’t I?

Putin – (smiles) Yes, you did.

Xi – Well… eventually the Chinese will get to vote in free elections. But that is not the phase of development we’re in. It will take years… 30-40 years perhaps. For now we have to instill discipline in the people. And it takes time. How do you see America’s situation now?

Putin – They are in a period of confusion. The assault on the Capitol is a sign of it. There are deep fractures in the political matrix of the country that suggest opportunities that we could take advantage of… if we work together.

Xi – Interesting. Go on.

Putin – There are parts of the population in America that would prefer a system like ours. The other day, one of their generals, retired now, a Trump supporter, was quoted as saying ‘Why couldn’t we have a coup in America, like there was in Myanmar?’

Xi – Unheard of before Trump.

Putin – I’m sure the general wasn’t talking of a coup to empower proletarians…

Xi – Of course not.

Putin – … but to further empower plutocrats, the super wealthy… the ones who run the big businesses and get away with paying no taxes.

Xi – I won’t let that happen in China.

Putin – I liked the way you set limits on Jack Ma.

Xi – Right. No matter how much money you have, no matter how big your company is, you do not criticize the governing party. But you can do it in America. But please do continue giving me your opinion of America.

Putin – Biden wants to unite the country… but he can’t do it on his own. I don’t think so. He needs allies in the Republican party. The problem is that no one is stepping forward. Most of them are still thinking Trump is their best choice.

Xi – You don’t think so?

Putin – Trump is not centered enough as a person. He had his moment. But there are Republicans who could step forward and say, ‘We have to work with Biden, the country needs it.’ Until that happens, America will drift, working at cross purposes, wasting time and energy… and… giving us the opportunity to take advantage of their confusion.

Xi – What were you thinking of?

Putin – I have seen how effective you have been in suppressing the dissent in Hong Kong. I am confident you could do the same in Taiwan.

Putin and Xi look at each other as they pause.

Xi – I have thought about it. Americans are very vulnerable in the semiconductor industry, now so concentrated in Taiwan.

Putin – And it will take them years to catch up. So… it may be a great opportunity to act.

Xi – We have discussed it… the pros and cons.

Putin – I could help.

Xi – How so?

Putin – America will not go to war with me if I choose to invade and annex the Ukraine. What do they care?

Xi – Hmm… but such an action would distract them enough for us to… at the same time… invade and annex Taiwan.

Putin – Exactly… and by controlling the semiconductor market, you’ll have the world on its knees.

Xi – Indeed. Hmm. We have discussed it, the pros and cons.

Putin – My bet is… that America will not go to war with you over Taiwan, either. They’ll swallow their pride and kick themselves for not thinking ahead when they had time to do it.

Xi – Good point. America will feel demoralized, weakened.

Putin – And it will give me an opportunity to extend my influence over Eastern Europe.

Xi -What were you thinking of?

Putin – Poland, Hungary… Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia… maybe Finland. The European Union is weak, more so now since Brexit. And there’s no hiding that some prefer autocracies.

Xi – I see. We have discussed it, the pros and cons. We will be moving into Afghanistan, of course, once the Taliban take over after the Americans leave.

Putin – Good luck with that. We didn’t do well there.

Xi – Ah, but you didn’t have the Belt and Road initiative like we do.

Putin – (laughs) Tighten that belt around their necks if they don’t cooperate.

Xi – Exactly.

Putin – However… there’s always the risk… that Americans will pull together and decide to fight.

Xi – You think Biden will rally them for a fight?

Putin – There is that possibility…

Xi – If so… Americans may end up more united than ever.

Putin – They are creative… and can be very determined…

Xi – When they have a bold leader. You think Biden is that man?

Putin – Good question… I wonder… but he could be… he just could be.

Xi – We would be risking a lot if we chose to act as we have spoken…

Putin – True.

Xi – … and the rest of the world may not be forgiving.

Putin – But it is very tempting, isn’t it… since America is so divided.

Xi – Yes. But we cannot forget that our economy keeps growing… no one is growing like we are… we keep reaching more and more markets… and we may discover, as I suspect, that we can outcompete America… and not have to fire a single shot… and maybe that’s the real war we’re now fighting.

Putin – Very good point.

Xi –We Chinese are very disciplined. That’s our advantage.

Putin – (looking a bit worried) It’s a different challenge… I get that.

Xi – Do you think Russians can outcompete Americans?

Putin – Good question.

The two men pause for a moment.

Xi – What would you have to do?

Putin – I am not sure. But I worry that I will have to grant more freedom to increase competitiveness.

Xi – Which would threaten your position.

Putin – Yes.

Xi – You’re not alone… I worry about it, also.

Xi clasps his hands as he pauses for a moment.

Sometimes… I think it is inevitable.

Putin – What?

Xi – That sooner or later, Chinese will want more freedom… even demand it.

Putin – Repression works up to a point… but we can make it last.

Xi – Taking the long view… I do think that you and I… are only transitional leaders… leaders without the conviction that men are at their best when they can govern themselves.

Putin smiles to himself, pensively. And he thinks of Alexei Navalny.

Xi – Shall we eat something?

Putin – Yes.

The two men rise and walk to the table filled with delicacies.

To be continued

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net

George Gascon Faces a Recall Election

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George Gascon, the newly elected District Attorney of Los Angeles, has run into an effort to recall him for his policy to review the lengthy sentences of thousands of people now in prison for violent crimes.

At the heart of the matter are gang enhancements, a judicial instrument that allows for adding prison time in criminal cases. If the offender was a gang member when he committed the crime, then that leads to additional time to serve beyond what the specific crime calls for.

Say that a person got 30 years for murder, the gang enhancement would then allow the judge to tack on another 5 years. Just because they were a gang member at the time.

I worked part time in the California prison system for 10 years – thru the end of 2016 – and it always struck me as supremely unfair to add this extra time.

Starting in 2006, the federal government got involved in improving the quality of care the inmates received in California because the state had a history of providing inferior services.

Inmates had brought a suit in federal court against the state. It was them who took the initiative.

Since then, the overall care has improved but still has a long way to go.

Designing and implementing an effective rehabilitation system for the inmate remains in its early stages. Inmates spend a lot of time doing nothing when they could be learning new skills and improving their ability to interact.

Given the enormous amount of money invested and the huge bureaucracy built, the people empowered to carry out the federal mandate have shown little imagination in putting together effective programs to assist the prisoner – psychologically and vocationally – in the quest to renew themselves.

At the same time, more effort needs to be put into prevention and into building better schools and creating more opportunities in the neighborhoods were offenders grow up.

That will take a whole different vision, but meanwhile, the gang enhancement acts as a means to defer what must be done. This is not acceptable and represents a grave injustice.

People fail for a variety of reasons, but I assure you that not one of those inmates set out in life wanting to be a failure.

Arriving in prison and spending time in it, is a statement of a failed life.

We all stumble at one point or another and we all need a helping hand along the way.

At the heart of the matter is inequality.

As a nation, we hold the sad distinction of being the country with the highest percentage of incarcerated people in the world.

It is tragic, isn’t it, to be a developed nation and to not have acknowledged that it is so much easier to simply add years of incarceration when we should be willing to explore options that will reconnect the offender to their humanity.

Our prison system is not a good example of what we can be as a nation.

Eliminating the gang enhancement is a small step in the direction of a more humane system and as such, Mr Gascon’s courageous efforts should be allowed time to work.

I have no doubt that, as he says, much vigilance would be exercised in determining who would qualify for the sentence reduction, mindful as he is of the possibility that a mistake could be made with grave consequences.

We need to trust a little as we invest in human beings.

We have to.

But just think of all of those men and women who, getting a chance for an earlier release, might contribute to enriching their communities and us all.

Think of all those men and women who, getting a chance for an earlier release, might smile and say, thank you fellow human beings, for seeing that hope was still alive in me.

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net

The videos ‘Letters to A Shooter’ are available on YouTube.com

Biden, Pope Francis and (some) American Bishops

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A majority of Catholic bishops have expressed their intention of writing policy to prevent those who ‘obstinately persist in manifest grave sin’ from receiving holy communion.

‘Manifest grave sin’ as in supporting abortion rights, which would then include Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi.

Pope Francis and the Vatican have spoken against writing such policy, warning that it would be divisive. But there is a conservative segment in American Catholicism that strongly advocates for it.

To an outsider like me, this seems absurd.

Let me focus on Joe Biden.

Here is a man who has devoted his life to helping others and is now championing large scale policies to relieve poverty, address inequality, revitalize our industrial and technological capacities and reconnect us with the world. His religion has been a fountain of solace and spiritual renewal as he has bravely squared with the problems that life has brought him.

Having Pope Francis on his side, seems not to matter to the bishops pushing for denying him communion. I suppose the bishops are thinking that this will wound Mr Biden so gravely that it will bring him to his knees to beg for the mercy of the church.

No such thing will happen.

Mr Biden will endure the loss. He’s got the character and has been well tested by adversity. Still, he may choose to, now and then, fly directly to Rome to receive communion from Pope Francis in a private Mass. And maybe the Pope will come to the White House also.

The biggest loser in this scuffle will not be Mr Biden or Nancy Pelosi or any American Catholic politician who defends the reproductive rights of women the world over, the biggest loser will be the American Catholic church. They will go on record as having spurned two of the best examples of what their faith can do to always be renewing the fighting spirit.

Bishop myopia and poor judgment on a grand scale is not new to this church. They have a long history of it. Bloody too. Like with the Inquisition.

But somehow they have survived.

Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi will too.

They need only ask themselves, ‘why so narrow a definition of the spirit of the church?’

‘Here we are embodying the spirit of generosity and affirmation of all human beings, regardless of sex or faith, and yet we are targeted to not receive communion.’

And they will grieve and lament the bishops’ decision, all the while knowing, in their hearts and minds, that if God chose to descend on Washington DC to pay a visit, he/she would land on the White House first, and then on Capitol Hill, and visiting for a moment with the two politicians, embrace them and whisper in their ears, ‘thank you for doing my work.’

To the bishops who have so stubbornly worked in denying reality, he would say, ‘Get a life.’

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net

94 y/o Woman is Stabbed in San Francisco

In the news report from United Press International, the family expressed ‘concerns about the indifference the victim encountered after the attack’.

And rightly so.

She was stabbed on Wednesday morning a little past 10 am according to a security camera that captured the scene. The victim was walking down the sidewalk when the man went up to her and started stabbing her.

The attacker, a 35 year old man, was arrested. He had a history of prior arrests for burglary and a homicide charge from 2016 that was dismissed in 2019 for lack of evidence.

The lady is recovering at San Francisco General Hospital.

It is not difficult to imagine how anyone of us can be either a victim or a witness.

If a victim and there are witnesses, it stands to reason that one would expect some assistance from those nearby.

But that is not assured, is it?

Judging from this attack, and similar ones reported recently, it is quite possible that one will be left to fend by oneself if assaulted, the witnesses preferring to not step in and put themselves at risk.

Understandable, right?

Sure. But is it the right thing to do?

There is always something a witness can do.

You may not wish to tackle the assailant and take the knife out of his hands, for fear you will turn into their victim, but anyone of us can certainly shout loudly to the attacker to stop hurting the other person.

Anyone of us can certainly attempt to summon others for help or try and pull the victim away from the attacker.

We don’t have to get in front of the knife, unless we feel we have to power to do so and disarm the person, but we owe something to each other, a minimum of civility, a minimum of consideration to not let the assailant keep doing harm to the person while undisturbed.

A witness ought to make some effort to intercede.

Some effort to distract the assailant, something to stop the cowardly act.

If we don’t, then how do we live with ourselves?

It can happen to anyone of us. Today, tomorrow, anytime.

Fear paralyzes the will and it may have paralyzed us before as I, myself, have been. But we cannot simply surrender without an effort.

We have to do something. Something. Something that says we are alive and will not let fear rule our lives.

Oscarvaldes.net Oscar Valdes

Afghanistan. The Fall

On June 13^th Robert Gates, who served as secretary of defense between 2006 and 2011 under Bush and Obama, wrote an article for the NYTs entitled ‘We Cannot Afford to Turn our Backs on Afghanistan.’

He speaks in favor of continued support for the existing government and for international funds to assist that nation.

He speaks of the strong likelihood that once America is gone, the Taliban will overrun the capital and eventually seek assistance from China.

So far, our share of human losses has come to over 2300 dead and more than 20000 wounded. And then there are the billions and billions poured into the effort, nearly a trillion now, not including associated costs for the care of veterans.

Is Mr Gates asking for another 5 years, maybe 10, of continued efforts on our part and NATO?

He acknowledges that the corruption of Afghan officials and members of their security forces undermined the massive international effort to change the course of that country.

When it was happening, we could have taken a strong position on not allowing such corruption.

We did not.

Mr Gates states that in the Fall of 2006 the president of Pakistan made a deal with the Taliban permitting them safe harbor in their land. Mind you, this was the president of a country where the US is one of the largest foreign direct investors, and for whom we are their largest export destination and to whom we provide significant assistance.

And still we could not keep them from supporting our enemy next door in Afghanistan.

There was a time to act and we now have to accept our losses.

If the Afghans could not refrain from undermining our efforts to help them build their nation, then we are not a good match.

We now need to invest our finite resources here at home, improving our infrastructure, our educational and health care systems and reducing inequality.

Mr Gates raises the specter that Al Qaeda will once again see an opportunity to come and bomb us.

Perhaps. But much has been learned in the last 20 years to help protect our skies and our borders.

Threats from abroad will persist, but the threats from within cannot be ignored. And those will rise if our inequalities and disagreements are not addressed.

I believe Mr Gates is right when he anticipates that once we leave, the Taliban will take full control of the country.

We should prepare for it.

It must include being able to clearly convey to the American people why we chose to leave and to assure them that we have taken all steps needed to provide for our safety.

We should avoid a repeat of the painful sights at our embassy in Saigon as we exited Vietnam, when local people who had assisted us rushed desperately toward the last helicopters lifting off pleading for a hand to help them up. Many were left behind.

It was a sad and hasty exit.

Surely Mr Biden watched as those scenes unfolded.

He has time to plan so we do better this time.

Bombing the Taliban as they encircle Kabul in their effort to seize it would come at the risk of injuring innocent people.

I hear that there are plans for Turkish and Pakistani troops to ensure the safety of the airport, with us paying the bill. But they won’t be able to hold off the encroaching Taliban. Turks and Pakistanis, too, will get in their choppers and planes and wave goodbye to that troubled land.

My hope is that Mr Biden, with his long history of dealing with difficult crises, will manage this one well.

But something is wrong in America and we have to fix it.

We should not retreat from the world but our resources are not limitless and we have to choose well.

We have lost Afghanistan and now we need to learn from it.

As we leave, China will step in. So be it. Maybe the intolerant and repressive Taliban will find kinship with the Chinese.

But something is wrong in America and we cannot just point the finger at the opposing party.

Something is wrong in America and there is fault in all of us.

Let us join together to fix it.

Let us join together to deal squarely with the enemy within.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net