Oscar Valdes

The Broader View: The Importance of Restraint

Trump orders the killing of General Suleimani and top aides and on 1/3/2020, the vehicle they were traveling in after arriving in Baghdad is hit by a rocket fired from a drone. They go up in flames.

Suleimani was in charge of Iran’s military interventions in the region (Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, Saudi Arabia, Yemen) and thus responsible for much devastation and misery, including the death of Americans.

But how did we get there?

Deeply held rivalries in the area go back many years and have been increased by the establishment of the Israeli state, which we back.

Maintaining our commitment to supporting Israel does not mean, however, giving in to the wishes of their leaders.

The Middle East remains a cauldron of festering enmities shared by millions of people and which will require the concerted effort of enlightened local leaders to mitigate. And it will take many years for that to happen.

There will be no clear winner in that process and it is obvious that for a modicum of peace to be reached, a series of compromises and an abundance of education, restraint and economic development will be needed.

That long term view was the motivation behind the nuclear deal signed in 2015 between the US, Iran, China, France, England, Germany and Russia.

The deal called for Iran to stop the development of nuclear weapons for a 10 year period in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. The point of the deal was to gain us time. Precious time for Iran to develop economically, and for that development to take root in their people and in the surrounding area so that attitudes toward compromise became more amenable.

But that option did not seem sufficiently comforting to Netanyahu and company. They saw the nuclear deal as ‘appeasement’ of Iran. Anyway, it was an Obama idea and what did he know? It well suited Netanyahu’s bellicose instincts that the idea be scrapped.

But the nuclear deal would have been very acceptable to a man like former Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin, who was murdered by an Israeli extremist in 1995. (even developed nations murder their best, like we did JFK and Martin Luther King and Robert Kennedy)

Men and Women make a difference. Yitzhak Rabin was a leader with an intelligence, imagination and compassion that Netanyahu has been incapable of emulating.

When Netanyahu sees Trump become president, he sees his chance to scrap the nuclear deal. And it suited Trump just as well. For Trump, anything Obama did was tainted. And Netanyahu whispered the right words into his ears. Scrap the deal! Make us safer!

Was the signing of the nuclear deal with Iran an abandonment of Israel? Of course not.

We stand by that nation in good and bad times. That commitment has been made.

While the US is strong, Israel will always have a staunch ally and we will go to their side if they are in danger.

But that does not mean that we have to stop efforts at finding a compromise.

Trump, with his limited foresight, could not get it. He does not have that imaginative reach and we are the worse for it.

Iran has vowed retaliation for Suleimani’s death. There is no question that it will come. Such retaliation could take any shape, happen in foreign soil or on our own, be directed toward military installations or toward innocent civilians. Anyone of us could be a victim.

It should give us pause.

Pause to think why we elect our leaders. Pause to remind us that our choice of leader must have the ability to think under pressure, to have compassion, to have an imagination, to care for other human beings. It is not easy to find all those qualities in a person but seek them we must. Or we will pay for the consequences.

A few days ago, I had the opportunity to view a photo exhibit of American soldiers who had died in the service of the nation. They were from all races. Men and women of various ages, who had committed to defending our nation. Each photograph was compelling. Each made me reflect.

Freedom has a price and those courageous men and women had volunteered to fight for all of us. The least they deserve is for our leaders to honor their commitment by being judicious in their choices.

Keeping such photo exhibit as a permanent installment in the White House, would help remind our presidents of what sacrifices Americans make.

Oscar Valdes

Take Immigration and the Economy Away from Trump. Now!

There is the possibility, let’s be really clear about it, that Trump might get reelected.

It sounds like a nightmare, doesn’t it, but there it is.

A man who lost the popular vote in 2016 by nearly 2.9 million votes has a chance of becoming our president for another 4 years.

Trump took the immigration issue and whipped his supporters into a frenzy. He painted a picture that immigrants where the reason they had not fared better economically. Or socially.

It was the immigrants’ fault. And he would clean house, build a wall, put in restrictions, stir as much hatred as possible so his loyal supporters could march to the polls and put in that ballot for him.

But immigration is not Trump’s issue. It is the nation’s issue. All of us should have a say in the matter.

Immigration has helped us become the strong nation that we are. A nation one hundred times better than Trump (who, while decrying immigrants, has married two immigrant women).

It should be up to all Americans to decide how to handle immigration.

It should not be up to a man who lost the popular vote.

His supporters do not represent the will of this nation.

We do need new legislation on immigration for we must be in control of our borders. But such control should be based on a consensus reached by all Americans.

Which is why I am proposing that we hold a National Referendum on Immigration.

How many immigrants should be allowed in, with what skills, from which countries, for how long a period?

After a set period of discussion on the pros and cons, then all Americans would vote on what to do about it. Then it would go to congress to be made into law.

Our democratic presidential candidates have not taken this matter seriously.

Immigration deserves to be front and center, with a sound plan to address it, otherwise Trump will do the same that he did in 2016 and stir more hatred of immigrants in his supporters.

To check him, a plan is needed. And it is needed now!

On the Economy.

Is it better than under Obama? Yes. This in spite of the dampening effect of the ill advised tariff war with China. But who blocked the needed spending to boost the economy during 2010-2015? Republicans in congress (please see Paul Krugman – The Legacy of Destructive Austerity – NYTimes 12/30 2019). The same Republicans who then, after Trump became president, chose to reverse course and approve such spending.

The duplicity of Republicans has to be exposed. Their blocking of Obama’s economic measures clearly harmed Americans’ economic wellbeing.

Democratic presidential candidates need to be very vocal on these two issues.

The harm caused by Republican policy has been devastating to the nation.

It should be front and center in the presidential political debate.

Finally, a word in support of Common Cause’s effort to Fix The Broken Electoral College by sponsoring a proposal for a ‘National Popular Vote Compact’ which is ‘… an agreement among states to guarantee the presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.’

To donate online please go to commoncause.org/join.

Thanks

Put Immigration Up Front

The nation will not get out of this impasse we’re living in without first putting immigration up front for discussion.

Trump identified it as a source of deep resentment in dissatisfied sections of the electorate and rode it to victory. That resentment is still there.

Democratic candidates do harm to themselves and the nation by not giving immigration a central position on their agendas.

We understand that addressing inequality will need a long conversation with the country and gradual fixes introduced as we are justifiably distrustful of quick ones.

But to give immigration less importance is to allow Trump to whip his fans into a frenzy one more time. We cannot afford it.

So long as immigration is left on the sidelines we will not defeat Trump.

Putting immigration up front will ask everyone to look at themselves and examine where they stand.

Immigration has been a powerful force in our nation. It has helped build us. We would not be who we are today without immigrants.

But we need borders too. We need limits. We need to have a say on who gets in and who doesn’t. Americans need to feel that their input has been acknowledged.

To do that we need a national referendum on immigration. A referendum on just that one issue.

Let us set aside a period of time devoted to discussing its pros and cons. Who do we let in, from what countries, with which skills, from what race?

Put every related issue up for discussion, not being afraid to look at ourselves as we know stand.

After such period then the matter would go to the entire country for a vote and then to congress who, having heard the will of the people, will put their wishes into law.

A time limit should be stipulated for the law, so that it can be revised as its effects play out.

But the nation would have had a chance to agree to something as a unit. We all would then need to abide by the results, whether we like them or not.

Why hasn’t this been discussed?

Because of what’s happened in England with Brexit. Because of it, we’re fearful that we will be painfully divided.

But we are already painfully divided. Furthermore, we are not the English.

The world owes much to that accomplished and scrappy people. In economics, in politics, in science. They were once the dominant nation in the world and yet they failed to adapt to changing circumstances and thus began their slow descent. They’re still in the thick of their downward spiral. Soon the Scots will want out of Great Britain, then the Irish, maybe even the Welsh.

The English will surely make a comeback but they have paid dearly for their mistakes. During their long downslide, they had chances to change strategy to better deal with their vast possessions but they did not. Their failures represented a failure of imagination. Let us learn from them and not make the same mistakes.

A national referendum on immigration will allow us an opportunity to examine in detail all the pros and cons of the matter and make a choice.

We are no stranger to failures of imagination in our history. The decimation of Native Americans, slavery, Jim Crow, Vietnam, and in recent history the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan stand as examples.

It will take much courage but confronting immigration will give us a chance to square with our truth, and in so doing let our imagination conceive of solutions that free up our energies to create and move forward, rather than to blame and hate.

This will be my last offering on Medium.com

I will continue to post on WordPress.com at oscarvaldes.net

Here’s to Talking to a Trump Supporter

Eleven months away from the election, there’s still ample time to attempt to persuade the Trump supporter that reelecting the president is not in the best interest of the nation.

So why do I think we should not reelect Trump?

1- The president has not worked to build bridges between Americans.

Take immigration.

Over the years, the nation has benefitted enormously from the influx of immigrants. We have benefitted from the very skilled and the not skilled. Once here, the great majority of immigrants have striven to adapt and become contributing members of society. Whatever their color or shape, they yearn for a chance to make something of themselves that their land of origin has not allowed.

Do we need limits? Of course. Like we need borders.

Do we not want any immigration at all? Then let’s do a national referendum and put the matter to all the citizens of the country. We are a nation. We should decide as a nation. Trump is not doing that. He is not seeking consensus. The fact that he was elected is not equivalent to consensus on the matter. He lost the popular vote by nearly 2.9 million votes.

Instead of trying for consensus, the president has stirred hatred in Americans against certain groups of immigrants. That is no way of beginning to solve this problem. We have to think on it.

Remember, the unskilled immigrant may be our caretaker or landscaper today, but their children will become our soldiers, doctors and engineers tomorrow.

2- Trump’s economic policies have been counterproductive.

His 2017 tax cut overwhelmingly favored the rich. That has not resulted in a benefit for the rest of us.

The tariff war with China has weakened both our economy and the world’s economy.

The president’s impulsive and volatile style has eroded business confidence making it harder for enterprises to plan ahead.

As a result of our tariffs on the Chinese and their counter tariffs, the president has had to spend billions of dollars in subsidies for our agricultural producers. His tariffs have raised prices for all of us.

Has the stock market been higher under Trump than under Obama?

Yes. But economists agree that the stock market is not the economy. Partly due to Trump’s tax cuts for the rich, we have increased our national debt enormously and there’s a lot of money sloshing around that has inflated asset prices.

Trump inherited from Obama a sound economy that began to yield greater fruits during Trump’s tenure. The president has reaped the benefits.

3- Trump has a tendency to surround himself with people who say ‘yes’ to him. As a result he’s not getting the best advice he needs and the nation deserves. Take for instance Syria. Jim Mattis, a distinguished general who was secretary of defense, resigned last year because he objected to the president’s intention to leave Syria where the battle against ISIS was being fought. We were backing the Kurds who were doing most of the fighting.

In the absence of sound advice, the president chose to pull out our remaining soldiers on the border between Syria and Turkey to let Turkey run over and push back the Kurds. In effect we betrayed our allies. Now the area is under the control of Turkey, Russia, and the forces of the dictator al-Assad in Syria. The likelihood is strong that ISIS will again gather strength and once more become a threat to us.

4- Trump has frayed our bonds with our European allies. America has had strong ties with Europe. We went to their continent to help them fight two world wars. They are going through internal struggles in part connected to immigration, the influx of people from Africa and the Middle East. More than ever there is a need for strong guidance from America but there is none coming from the White House.

5- In his preoccupation with personal attacks and building a border wall, Trump has neglected the much needed investment in infrastructure. He has neglected investment in the education and training that his supporters need to become competitive with stronger labor forces the world over.

6- Because of his coarse behavior, Trump has devalued the highest office of our land. Maintaining the prestige of the office is invaluable in the conduct of national as well as foreign affairs.

There is no example of probity coming from the White House and we are the worse for it.

On international affairs, the president recently invited Mr Erdogan, Turkey’s president, to the White House. ‘I’m a fan,’ Trump boasted. This he said to the same man who run over and trampled the Kurdish population on the border with Syria, the same Kurds who had been our steadfast allies in our fight against ISIS.

7- Trump cannot stand up to Putin. In the presence of clear evidence, as carefully documented in the Mueller report, that Russia did interfere in the elections of 2016, our president has not mustered the nerve to say to Putin that he should never have done it, and will be severely penalized if he should attempt to do so again.

8- In the face of overwhelming scientific evidence Trump chooses to deny the ravaging effects of the burning of fossil fuels and then pulled us out of the Paris Climate Accord, where most of the world had gone to seek consensus. In effect, by his actions, he’s said to the rest of the world, ‘the US is no leader to you. We will do what is best for us in the moment. So there. Deal with it’.

I do not recall ever having a president who so willingly chose to surrender the prestige that our nation has worked so hard to attain.

To defeat Trump in 2020, we have to convince his supporters that they are not seeing things for what they are. And that means talking to them.

The better argument we gather, the more likely that we will get a point or two across.

The strategy is not to expect conversion to our position but to sow doubt, any doubt, in the Trump supporter.

Some of Trump’s supporters may not be willing to listen but some will.

Some may have interesting points of view that we need to consider.

Addressing key points with a spirit of civility is likely to foster dialogue and, perchance, reflection.

I’m posting this on WordPress, at oscarvaldes.net. I would like to invite any of you who wishes to contribute to this list to send me your suggestions. Should I choose to add your suggestion I will do so in the next edition of the blog and credit your contribution at the bottom. Or you may wish to write your own blog and start your own talking plan.

Hoping for the best, please join in.

Thanks

Oscar Valdes

I Immigration /E Economy / S Support staff/ A Alliances/ I Infrastructure / D Decorum in office / P Putin / C Climate

I E S A I D P C

A Vote Against Trump is Not a Vote for Betrayal, but a Vote for Freedom.

It will be up to 20 brave Republican senators to help redirect the course of the nation.

This next week, the full House will vote on approving the articles of impeachment – abuse of power and obstruction of congress – which will then move to the Senate where the president will be tried.

Sixty seven yes votes are needed to convict the president. Being that there are only 47 democratic senators, a full 20 Republicans are needed to switch sides to convict the president.

Can it happen? Odds are that it will not.

But there is always the possibility of a surprise.

Why?

History will not be kind to those who have sided with Trump in spite of the overwhelming evidence of improprieties during his tenure. Not just the articles of impeachment. And the perception of how history will view us matters to decent men and women who have made a long term commitment to the health of the nation.

Only 20 Republican senators are needed to turn out a president who shows no signs of standing up to despots the world over, be them Putin in Russia, Erdogan in Turkey, El-Sisi in Egypt or the Saudi prince.

Only 20 Republican senators are needed to turn out a president who could not stand up against the Saudi royal family after they butchered the distinguished journalist Jamal Khashoggi in their embassy in Ankara, Turkey.

Only 20 Republican senators are needed to turn out a president who, after 3 years in office, has not mustered the mettle to tell Putin that interference in American elections is not allowed.

So here’s an opportunity for 20 courageous Republican senators to take a stand.

Dear senator, will you be putting your career in jeopardy if you do so?

It depends on how you view yourself. If you think of yourself as someone who understands the crisis of values that the president has thrown the country into, and realizes that Trump lacks the capacity to lead the nation in these convulsed times, then you will stand up to him and join those who vote to convict.

If you lack this awareness, then you will bow to the great showman and buy into the great deception that he orchestrates daily.

Do not forget, however, that history will not be kind to you when you side with Trump.

But then, history may not be important to you. Short term gains may be what matters to you most. If so, please consult your conscience and ask, was this nation built by shortsighted men?

When Trump goes on trial in the Senate, you will have the option of choosing how do you want history to judge you.

A vote to acquit is a vote to join Trump in his poor choices and impulsivity and self promotion.

A vote to acquit is a vote to imperil the freedoms that have made us a special place in the world.

Daily courage is needed to preserve it, for freedom does not come cheap.

Will 20 brave, visionary, responsible leaders please stand up to defend our freedoms, or will you choose to pass and have the nation wait for others to muster the courage?

Oscar Valdes

How Trump Helped Biden

Sometime ago I wrote that both Biden and Sanders ought to bow out of the race given their age. I was half wrong.

Biden has shown strength and has begun to appeal to more of the undecided. Part of his gains he owes to gaffes his adversaries are making. Warren shares too many of Sanders’ campaign positions and it has started to hurt. Sanders is overly identified with the Medicare for All concept and has boxed himself in.

But Biden owes much also to Trump himself.

Trump has an abundance of flaws and no reluctance to reveal them, but he also has had sharp political instincts. If not massaged properly, though, they may backfire.

Back in July, when Trump looked at the field of democratic candidates and considered their possibilities, he thought Biden was the one he needed to undermine the most. And so he chose to go after the former vice president with all the craft he could muster. But Trump overplayed his hand and poor judgment got him in trouble.

Trump may survive the impeachment, but there is no doubt that the attempt to pressure Ukraine’s president Zelensky into investigating Joe Biden’s son’s work with the Ukrainian energy company Burisma, was a political move intent on defanging Biden as a candidate and rival. That fact is unassailable. So it doesn’t matter if Trump is not found guilty of attempting to bribe president Zelensky with the promise of $ 396 million in military assistance to defend against Russia in exchange for his agreeing to investigate Joe Biden’s son. It doesn’t matter because the damage has already been done.

The impeachment process, playing in congress to great fanfare, amounts to a huge plus for Biden and the democrats.

Additionally, the damage inflicted by the impeachment process is not limited to Trump himself, but affects the entire legislative representation of the Republican party, which in their shameless surrender to Trump, have chosen to not see the real elephant in the room, the decent people they were appointed to represent.

I was originally opposed to the impeachment of the president on grounds that it would be a loss of valuable time to get the message out to the public that a president bent on dividing the nation should not be reelected. But the democratic legislators have done a great job of moving things along and the matter has now been handed over to the Judiciary committee to draft the charges against the president.

The whole impeachment inquiry process has not been the ‘plus’ Trump boasted it would be for him. Quite the opposite, it has been a resounding minus.

So go, Joe, go! Your stances are appealing to the center. And if Warren and Sanders’s supporters acknowledge that defeating Trump is what is most essential to this election, then it will happen.

So go, Joe, go!

By the way, you keep talking about the pushups you do, so just how many do you do?

The Debate in Atlanta

It was a good one. The candidates showed voters that the nation has people of substance to choose from and I found it inspiring that they all spoke of the importance of unifying the nation. They were reaching out to all Americans.

No one in particular ran away with it but I think Warren and Biden are beginning to edge out the rest of the group.

Medicare for All will be the crucial issue throughout the race. It will probably sink Sanders since he’s taken the most extreme position, that of pushing the program from day one in office. The issue could end up damaging Warren also, but she’s starting to sound a more gradualist approach so she’ll fare better than the Vermont Senator.

Biden surprised me in that he appears to be growing stronger as the campaign moves on. He stumbled once but held up pretty well overall.

Booker was spirited, as were Klobuchar, Yang, Steyer, Buttigieg, Steyer, Harris and Gabbard.

One of them will end up being the Vice-presidential candidate.

If Warren wins the nomination, she’ll likely not choose Biden as VP but if Biden is the winner, he will pick a woman from the group of Warren, Klobuchar and Harris.

Who will Warren choose as running mate? I think she’ll go with Booker, with Yang and Buttigieg having a chance at it.

The new entries in the race, Michael Bloomberg and Deval Patrick, have little chance to catch up. They were too late to get going.

The next debate is in Los Angeles in early December.

Warren the Intemperate

She may well win the democratic party’s nomination but it is looking unlikely that she’ll beat Trump.

In the reaction to Trump’s excesses in office, Warren is waving too frantically the banner of government remedies. Gradualism, which allows for the American entrepreneurial spirit to blossom, is being pushed aside.

In the reaction to Trump’s excesses, the democratic party ends up playing Trump’s game. A game that seeks to antagonize and divide.

Trump knows that there is a constituency in the middle that is unlikely to buy into the Medicare for All plan.

He knows that there is a constituency in the middle that is not ready to say that college education should be free.

Trump knows that the same constituency will not tolerate high taxes on the rich.

And he seems confident in the belief that, though that constituency disapproves of his conduct in many ways, when pushed, they would rather go to the polls holding their noses and vote for him, than to risk the radical changes Warren is now offering.

Will the nation be better off if health care delivery is improved and made more inclusive? Yes.

Will we be better off with greater access to college and quality schools? Yes.

Will we be better off with tax reform where the richest pay more than they do now? Absolutely.

But it needs to happen gradually.

Warren needs to have two main plans. One plan to get in, the other to gradually begin to make the changes. But she needs to get in first.

She needs to get in and by showing herself a capable president, then begin to persuade us that some of those fundamental changes must be made.

We need to see her being open to compromise, to dialogue. We need to see her open to accept that while the system needs a lot of fixing, there’s also a lot of good stuff that should not be trimmed. And it takes time, sweat and tears, to do all that maneuvering.

We need to see a politician do the politician’s work of horse trading. Simply because that’s the nature of the business. Lots and lots of horse trading. Until she proves herself capable of reaching for the best in all of us.

Telling us that she has a plan for everything smells too much of government overreach. If she stays on that track, she’ll be playing Trump’s game and will not get in.

Trump has no plan and he’s okay with that. Or, his only plan to get reelected is to defend the status quo, stirring up hatred against the incoming democratic socialists.

Warren the politician needs to step up. Warren the professor and preacher needs to sit down.

It shouldn’t be hard.

Will Impeachment Eclipse the Drive to November 2020?

The impeachment inquiry is taking up a whole lot of time and energy, whereas the outcome is very uncertain.

Trump cannot keep from making mistake after mistake, but for democrats to use up so many resources, to the point of diminishing the drive to persuade enough voters to beat him at the ballot box, is a monumental mistake.

At present, the center stage is Trump’s and he loves it, and that is not lost on the electorate who is not inclined to read the fine print in the multitude of documents to be reviewed. Soon they will be bored with the proceedings.

‘It will turn out to be a positive for me,’ Trump said defiantly in response to the announcement of the inquiry. I suspect he will be right.

Subpoenas will be issued and the many actors will take their seat in front of the panel of interrogators, but the questions and answers will be difficult to follow. I assure you there will be much frustration as the respondents give vague answers like, ‘I don’t recall’ and ‘To the best of my recollection this is all I know…’ etc.

Let us not forget that in Trump’s universe, there are two kinds of lawyers and only two: those who take notes and those who don’t. He picks those who don’t. Enter Rudy Giuliani.

Will the distinguished former New York mayor have a clear memory of what happened in his many meetings in the Ukraine? Of course not. And the interrogators will be pulling out their hair. Will Ukraine be cooperative? It depends. Do they think Trump will win reelection? Judging by the enthusiasm of Mr Zelensky, their president, Trump is faring well in that land.

There is an abundance of facts to make the case that Trump should not be reelected. But the hard work needed to persuade people to vote for a democratic candidate remains to be done.

There is a thirst in the American electorate for a person to lead us whose task is simply that, to lead. Lead us to connect with each other, to decrease inequality and increase opportunity.

There is a great desire in the American electorate for someone without personal problems, someone who can focus on the task of leadership and is not hungry for personal attention.

But it will take time to clarify the winning message that will make voters eager to cast their ballot come November 2020. There are no short cuts to get there.

Trump can and should be beat at the ballot box.

Impeachment should not eclipse the light that can take us there.

The Problem of Political Correctness

It does not allow for the evolution of a person.

There’s a whole lot that can happen in a 15-20 year span.

A whole lot that can be learned,

A whole lot of transformation that can take place.

So to pillory people, of whatever political ideology

For events going back more than 15 or 20 years

Is to ask for a standard of purity that reeks of absurdity.

Life and events affect us profoundly,

Sometimes taking us in very different directions.

To not allow for this, risks filtering out people

With great ability and healing capacity.

Judging a person by their actions (unless criminal) in the last 15-20 years,

The span of a generation,

Should be enough to know where they stand.

Beware models of purity,

They come in boxes where rich imaginations cannot live.