Uncategorized – Page 21

Ukraine Can Win!

What seemed unthinkable at the start of this war, is now gathering strength. The distinct possibility that Ukraine can push back Russia and win the war.
While Russia keeps lying to their people about the war, in the West, nations are coming together in support of the heroic behavior of the Ukrainian people.
Volodymyr Zelensky, their president, has been untiring in his efforts to reach out to others soliciting support for the war effort.
Russia, meanwhile, has seen many of their people leave the country and has now summoned the help of Syrian mercenaries to help with their invasion.
The widespread killing of civilians at the hands of Russian soldiers is now a daily occurrence.
None of which appears to disturb the mind of Putin.
But let us not be fooled. Putin is afraid. Afraid that his forces are weaker than he thought, afraid that his troops lack the will to persevere in the conquest of Ukraine, afraid that fellow Russians will revolt against him, afraid that his flawed belief system and the lies he’s used to fool his people are now being exposed.
How long can he keep up the farce?
Not long.

Meanwhile, the West is coming together in realizing the enormous benefits of a Ukrainian victory, i.e, a profound shift in the political alignment of the world.
Every effort we now make will make a difference.
Putin has begun to retreat and will likely become dependent on China, a nation showing its true colors in its aversion for democracy and the suppression of free speech.
Ukraine is on the vanguard of the contest between East and West.
In their determination to not bow to Russian oppression they have become a shining symbol of what needs to be done to defend our liberties, and as such deserve our full cooperation.
Their valor calls for all of us to make sacrifices in the defense and affirmation of our values.
Circumstances have thrust them into the center of a battle that had been fought more quietly.
Now it is fully in the open.
China is an ally of Russia. It is an enemy of America and the West. It wants to use whatever the West can offer to gain further power and then turn around and use it against us.
We, in the West, do not need China.
We will not lose the hope that the Chinese people can one day rise, just as Ukrainians are now doing, and defeat their oppressive leadership and the lies they now tell.
The Chinese leadership are no strangers to inflicting mass cruelty on their people, such as was carried out during the Cultural revolution under Mao Zedong in the 60s and is presently the case in their suppression of the Uyghur minority in Xinjiang province.
Ukraine is now the battleground for freedom in our world.
Let us support them with all we can.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.

Oh Germany!

Oh, Germany!
How you disappoint.
Joining Viktor Orban in Hungary? Who famously said, ‘we don’t want diversity’. The implication being, we are pure!
What’s going on Germany?
You chronically underfund your military, as if you lived in Wonderland.
You grow dependent on Russia for your energy needs,
Year after year after year,
As if you had thought that the Russian bear had lost its claws,
That it had polished them off and now was a cuddly teddy bear.
Never mind Russia’s invasion of Georgia, their ruthless subjection of Chechnya, their annexing of Crimea, their massacring Syrians in support of murderous Assad.
And then you choose to be timid with helping Ukraine.
After sending them band aids and helmets and lotions,
You finally agree to sending some arms.
But you have not been forceful.

You listen to your business sector saying, ‘no, curtailing oil and gas imports from Russia will make things uncomfortable. We understand that sacrifices are honorable but the bottom line is king. We must not inconvenience ourselves too much. Token measures should suffice.’
Oh, ‘wisdom’ sometimes has a very bad odor.
I read that your perceived timidity is actually a calculation, that you do not want to harm your chances of mediating the conflict.
What nonsense!
Do you really think that Putin will pay attention to you?
Oh, sorry. Perhaps they will.
Since you’ve had Gerhard Schroeder planted there all along.
So there was method to your madness. Softening the bear. How farsighted of you. We should all learn from you.
Right. Tell that to the dead Ukrainians.
But you do sell weapons to other nations, like to Egypt, right? And is their ruler a great democrat? No. The man is a dictator. An oppressor of human beings.
Have you not lost your fondness for dictators? Do they still appeal in some way?
Oh Germany!
How would you like to be invaded and others not sacrificing for you?
You’re not alone in being seduced by Putin. He’s made friends in Italy, and Marine Le Pen, the presidential candidate in France has been an admirer.
But for some reason I thought you would be wiser.
And maybe you are and are holding back and will surprise us all. Please do so. I can’t wait.
I don’t know enough about your history to know if you’ve ever defended your land with the fierceness that Ukrainians are doing now, but you’ll agree they are setting an example for the rest of us. And for you, too.
I went to Berlin this last September. Had a wonderful time. Thank you.
I’m an American immigrant. My country is deeply flawed but we’re working on it. And it’s our president, who has stepped up and led the West in countering Putin’s aggression.
Please join us.

PS: The news this morning spoke of 39 Ukrainians killed by a Russian missile in the Donbas area.
Many were at a train station waiting to leave. Men, women and children.
I am sure Putin had his breakfast with no interruptions.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

Imagining Ways to Arm Ukraine

The Russo-Ukrainian war signals a turning point in the establishing of a new world order.
In the face of atrocities, sacrifices must be made and people and nations need to take sides.
Fence sitting won’t do.
Not only are foreign volunteers stepping in to join Ukraine’s forces, but people from Belarus, Ukraine’s neighbor to the north, are now contributing to the effort. They have suffered the Russian oppression, as when their puppet president rigged the 2020 elections in his favor and then asked Putin to help him squash the protests that followed.
Even invading Russian soldiers who have defected are now part of the Ukrainian resistance.
The West is solidifying in its support of sanctions being imposed.
Today the American senate unanimously approved removing from Russia and Belarus their most favored nation trade designation which then allows us to raise tariffs against their imports. The senate also backed the oil ban.

Now how can we get more arms to the Ukrainians?
Russian forces are shifting emphasis to the eastern region to consolidate gains and regroup. But their intent is to take over all of Ukraine.
Standing in their way is the fierce resistance of the Ukrainian army and the heroic support of their people.
They need arms.
We also understand the importance of limits to what we can do.
As Putin is pushed back he is more likely to resort to both strategic and tactical nuclear weapons to use against the Ukrainian people.
We cannot give him a reason to do so and draw us into nuclear confrontation which may lead to devastating consequences.
But we can find ways to smuggle in arms that could be assembled in Ukraine. Say, take a large weapon, break it down into sections, smuggle it in through the western border, then let Ukrainians assemble it and put it to work.
Maybe this could be done with those MIG jets that Poland was willing to donate. The advantage being that Ukrainians pilots are familiar with them.
Having additional planes at their disposal could be a game changer.
Meanwhile, China stands on the sidelines, unable to call an atrocity an atrocity, and certainly willing to help Putin escape the brunt of the economic sanctions.
India’s leadership, too, has decided to do the fence sitting, never mind all the assistance they have got from the west.
The world is dividing.
Ukraine has veered West.
They need all our help. Right now.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.

Fix or Replace the U.N.

Something is wrong with an organization that allows Russia and China to hold veto power in the Security Council, even as they are clearly the offending nations.
Russia, as it carries on with its cruelty in Ukraine, China, as it proceeds with its effort to suppress the Uyghur minority in Xinjiang province.
The two nations work together to render that prestigious organization useless.
While the plight of refugees, the mass killing of people and the destruction of property, clearly establish Russia’s inhumanity, their envoy to the United Nations goes on and on justifying Putin’s invasion, calling it necessary to rid Ukraine of Nazis sponsored by America and intent on destroying Russia.
He goes on and on, in a calm demeanor, unaffected by the widespread evidence of his country’s behavior.
And if any motion is put forward by any dissenting member nation of that council, the Russian envoy can simply use his veto power.
Something is deeply wrong with the design of such organization for it is not doing what it’s supposed to do.
It should be fixed or cease to exist.

The UN has yet to summon the clout to bring the warring parties to the table. The likelihood is that it will not.
So Russia and China’s having veto power over any resolution proposed, renders it irrelevant.
I have no doubt that the United Nations’ many efforts over the years have had considerable impact in many areas, but the plight of Ukraine tells us that it is time to redesign how power is wielded in that body or it must be replaced with a better designed entity.
Is this the time for the nations of the West to initiate a boycott against it? To simply walk out and leave the representatives of Russia and China, Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Cuba and Myanmar, keep blabbering on until the lights are turned off?
I think so.
As we speak, the world is being divided into two opposing camps. One led by the free nations of this earth, the other led by Russia and China.
So, in the face of the impotence of the present United Nations, this is the time to form a different organization, to include all those nations who wish to share in the ideals of democracy and free trade.
Why should we tarry with the pretense that dialogue with the leadership of Russia and China is possible?
There is no indication any attempt to do so makes any difference, so why waste our time?

Let us instead form a United Nations West so we can nurture and cooperate with each other.
I have no doubt who will win in the end.
The story of a divided Germany gives us the answer. Too bad the rest of the world has forgotten that lesson.
Men and women are born to be free.
The task of every government is to facilitate that all of us develop our potential as human beings.
In the West we keep working at it, sometimes successfully and sometimes not, but we keep trying.
In Russia and China, reigning autocracies are the preferred arrangement.
Until one day their subjugated populations rise and demand their freedom. Like we are seeing in Ukraine.
A United Nations West is a necessity.
The spirit of Ukraine lives in all of us.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.

Oh Hungary!

Photo by Andrea Piacquadio on Pexels.com

Oh Hungary!
You disappoint.
You’ve reelected Viktor Orban as your leader for a 5th term as prime minister.
Putin sent a congratulatory message.
He needs friends these days and you obliged.
Of course, the oil and gas he sells you is also helpful.
We understand how difficult it is to deal with Putin,
a small minded man with big weapons,
but for you to be so quiet about his murdering Ukrainians,
your neighbors, is difficult to understand.
It wasn’t that long ago, in 1956,
that the same Russians crushed your revolution, your call for freedom.
But you’ve forgotten.
I know you’ve fought many wars with the Russians and not won any,
but isn’t Ukraine’s fight an inspiration?
Something is happening there that is different.
A new nation is being born.
Ukrainians are tearing themselves apart from an oppressor
that has chosen not to allow them the right to be who they wish.
Oh Hungary,
You’re entitled to your fears,
But face them you must or you’ll forget what matters
and leave it to others to decide for you.
Helping Ukraine arm itself now is critical.
They are not asking you to shed a drop of blood for them.
They will do that.
All they’re asking is for you not to let the fear of Putin
silence your hearts.
There is still time.
Russia will never be the same again.
The dead in Ukraine will never go away, their cities turned to rubble,
the children without parents, the brave combatants offering their lives.
Oh Hungary,
look at the pictures, listen to their cries, it is the sight of a nation being born as it is being crushed.
It is the sight of a nation’s courage changing our world.
Oh Hungary,
Speak out!

To the memory of Mike Kannas

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

Putin:’God is with Me!’

He is in his bunker somewhere near Moscow. Various video monitors mounted on the wall are showing footage of the damage done by the attack of two Ukrainian helicopters on Belgorod, Russian territory located just north of Kharkiv.
‘They attacked Russian soil! How dare they!’
The video shows several oil tanks in flames.
‘Attacking my land, my sacred grounds!’
Putin trembles in his rage.
‘What happened to our air defenses? How was this possible? If they did it once, they will do it again!’
He is standing in front of his desk, looking in disbelief at the video of the attack being replayed.
‘Zelensky will pay for this. Once I capture him, because I will do that, I will put him on trial. And he will pay. The world will be clamoring for me to be merciful but I will not.’
Putin slams his fist on the table.
‘What the hell happened to my army? I’ve spent years and years building it up and now they don’t deliver. Who is responsible? I’m having to call up more and more men for military service. I’m having to ask Syrian fighters to join in to kill Ukrainians. I’m having to call up the Wagner group too.’
He shakes his head slowly as he looks down at the table.
‘It doesn’t look good… me… Vladimir Putin… asking Assad for help.’
He rubs his face.

‘Will I even conquer all of Ukraine? How can I live with myself with less than total control over it?’
He sits down, the mood despondent.
‘I was wrong… instead of riding victorious into Kyiv… instead of people calling my name in adoration… throwing flowers at my armored limousine, I’m now looking at the possibility of having to negotiate a peace treaty. With a comedian! Me, a great political leader! Oh, the irony of it all. What a twist of fate!’
He leans forward in his chair, clasping his hands, the anger palpable and a growing sense of self reproach.
‘It’s the fault of the Americans. Yes… Biden. Him. And I made too much of Trump… thinking that he represented America… thinking that he was the epitome of their decline… that the January 6th assault on the capitol was a clear sign they were rotten to the core… weak… morally dissolute… reveling in vice.’

He stands abruptly and walks a few paces then stops for a moment. Something is deeply wrong. He returns to his desk, presses a button on a console and images of him addressing a crowd of adoring fans at a stadium in Moscow appear on the screens.
The sight eases his tension as if hope had returned.
‘No. I’m okay. I’m all right. They still love me. God has not abandoned me. God is with me. And I will redouble my efforts. I will conquer all of Ukraine. And I will force the West to take my rubles for our oil.’
He laughs loudly, feeling victorious.
‘That was a great strategy of mine. How I made Europe dependent on our oil and gas. How I made them kneel for it. Brilliant.’

But his expression now turns somber.
‘Can I recover…? In the eyes of the world… can I redeem myself? In the eyes of China, can I, once again, look strong?’
He shakes his head slowly… in disbelief… as if acknowledging the loss.
‘Is this the beginning of my end… with the whole world watching? No… it can’t be.’
He reaches for the console and switches back on images of his troops and tanks riding into Ukraine on February 24th, the first day of the invasion.
He smiles with relief.
‘There it is… my power… Russia’s power… it’s not gone… I see it… the fullness of my power… everybody sees it… I know it’s still there… it’s not gone away… it’s there… yes… it’s not over… it can’t be… I still have a hand to play… Putin is not gone…’
But he hesitates. Doubtful.
‘If it’s gone… really gone… then… I can still… yes…’
He turns around, away from the cameras, hands clenched into fists.
‘America will not defeat me. They will not. We will both go down in flames… and just who will stop me?’

Oscar Valdes Oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.

Straight Talk: Biden and Putin

A few days ago Mr Biden stated, at the end of a speech in Warsaw, that Putin ‘cannot remain in power.’ The statement set off a flurry of commentary, some of which held that he was calling for regime change in Russia. The White House promptly clarified that was not the case.
The Kremlin dismissed the statement.
Mr Biden has called Putin a war criminal. I believe he may have said, also, that the man was a murderer.
Mr Macron, France’s president, quickly put in that saying those things interfered with diplomacy.
Maybe.
But I don’t think so.

All those things Mr Biden has said are true. Putin has targeted residential buildings, schools, theaters, hospitals, people in the streets, women, children. If that doesn’t make him a war criminal, then what does?
He has unleashed his cruelty without provocation. In his defense, he’s told us that he and his beloved Russia are being threatened by Ukraine. Not threatened with weapons but by their desire to emancipate.
It doesn’t take much to threaten Putin. A country next door willing to exercise its right to sovereignty and lean to the West was too much of a provocation. For Putin to sleep well at night, Ukraine needed to continue to live under the shadow of Russia. Under his boot.
But Ukrainians had enough of it and they mounted a fierce resistance that has unified the West. From now on, in our hearts and minds, Ukraine is part of the West.

What troubles Putin is that the rebellious nation is so close to Moscow. And their show of defiance is likely contagious. Other territories under his boot, may want to go their own way.
And so he felt a need to be cruel. To set an example. To oppress. To squash other human beings into submission. The more blood the better.
Mr Biden had finished speaking with refugees from Ukraine when he made his speech in Warsaw. He was obviously moved by their pain, he told us himself. And so he responded, acknowledging their suffering.
Putin, on the other hand, carries on as if it was just another day.
But something is brewing under the surface. He knows his status in the world has been seriously diminished. Young Russians are leaving their land. Slowly, his authority is eroding, and it is doing so because of his inhumanity.

We’re all vulnerable to slide into acts of cruelty. More so if we choose to isolate ourselves. Which is what Putin has done. He’s a one man show in Russia. Everybody else must dance to his tune. Alexei Navalny, a prominent dissenter is now in jail for pointing out Putin’s flaws and just got his sentence extended. Opposition organizations are labelled terrorists and barred from civil discourse.
By contrast, Mr Biden is open to criticism. He may sometimes not like the criticism he gets but he knows he has to work with it. The laws of this country require that he do so. I believe he is open to feedback from his team, a team which quickly came to his aid when he said Putin ‘cannot remain in power.’ No, his team added, the President was not calling for regime change in Russia. And yet, we all knew, that in his heart, that’s exactly what he was doing.

We all understand that it is up to the Russians to depose Putin. But the rest of us, every single one of us, also have a right to join in with Mr Biden and say that he ‘cannot remain in power.’ We have such right because the images of the pain and suffering inflicted by Putin are clear to all of us.
And there may be more to come. In his desperation to push his boot onto the throats of Ukrainians, Putin may wish to use chemical or tactical nuclear weapons so he can finally overcome the courageous people fighting for their right to choose their own destiny.
Perhaps Mr Biden’s views of Putin will damage negotiations for an end to the war.
I don’t think so.
And if the two men were ever to meet again, I believe Mr Biden would sit across him and discuss whatever needed to be discussed. And if Putin were to ask, ‘do you think I’m a war criminal?’, Mr Biden would answer, ‘Yes, I do. You are a war criminal. A murderer. It is a matter of record. The whole world knows it. Now, let’s talk about what we have to talk.’

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

The New Confidence of The West and The Need for Caution

It took the Ukrainian invasion and the fierce resistance it has prompted, for the nations of Europe to stand firm with America against the barbarism of Putin. The Ukrainian people, long in the shadow of Russia, decided it had seen enough. It would not applaud the invading Russians but fight them. And fight them to the end.
That heroism has elicited a new vigor in the West.

The cruelty Putin has unleashed on the Ukrainian people will not go unpunished. It will not be forgotten.
The lies Putin has used to justify his actions will forever remind us of the lies all autocracies or dictatorships use to justify their oppression.
By virtue of the ubiquity of cameras the invasion and its consequences have been thoroughly documented, making it one of the most public wars. And that evidence will not be buried with the dead but forever stand to remind us of the price of freedom.
Putin, of course, has tried to hide all of it from his people. But his days are numbered.
The Russian people are now asking themselves, ‘is this violence not being inflicted on us too? By denying us freedom of speech and thought?’
And that stark reality will bring unease to their consciences and so move them to assert the fullness of their existences.

Sooner or later, Putin will fall. And it will be the Russian people who will bring him down.
He knows he is losing the war. He knows he has nowhere to go and hide. It is a matter of time before he is set aside by his own people.
China, meanwhile, has refused to condemn the invasion. But their leadership is accustomed to denying their own people their voice. What else could we expect from their autocrats?
The influx of weapons from the West has made a huge difference in the fierce Ukrainian resistance and so, too, the fact that the mighty Russian army has not been all that mighty.
Their advance has proven difficult and the likelihood is that it will need more and more resources to complete the conquest of Ukraine, raising the possibility that Russia will not have the capability of doing so.
A diminished Putin will be tempted to resort to chemical weapons and even nuclear ones.
This would escalate the war with uncertain consequences.

Earlier today, in Brussels for a meeting with NATO partners, a confident president Biden said that if Putin used chemical weapons against the Ukrainian people, NATO would respond.
Putin will likely challenge that position and use such weapons. The same way that Assad in Syria challenged president Obama’s drawing a red line intended to bar the weapons.
In our confidence, we must not forget caution.
Putin is a failed man but as long as his people don’t rebel against him, he can unleash horrible weapons.
So we must watch our language.
Putin has little to lose at this stage. But we do.
With this catastrophic performance, not only Ukraine but other nations now under his influence will turn toward the West. That, we can be confident about.
I say that Belarus is next.

Oscar Valdes, oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

For the Love of Russia

The invasion will continue. I see no signs that Putin is about to relent.
The mounting number of dead and maimed, the growing destruction in Ukraine, will not stop him.
In his obstinacy – his unremitting cruelty – he is telling us that the West no longer matters to him.
He is counting on China for support. And on all those other countries that have chosen to side with them.
Putin’s actions are making clear the division in our world. On the one side China-Russia and their followers, on the other the West.
Meanwhile, shortages will worsen, inflation will increase while economic growth will likely decrease. For now.
But there’s always room for the unexpected.

Here’s Putin in his bunker on Sunday afternoon.
Just the day before he addressed a stadium filled with his supporters. He spoke to them for five minutes and reminded them of the absolute necessity of invading Ukraine. That nation was threatening all Russians. He was forced to act.
He is sitting at his desk. On the wall in front is an array of video monitors tracking the progress of the war. A bank of multi colored phones lies within easy reach.
On one of the screens the image of President Zelensky appears. It is a clip of Zelensky’s address to the British parliament a few days earlier. The audio is muted. Putin has replayed it several times already.

‘To be or not to be, he told them. What a joke. This man, this… nothing… that’s what he is, nothing at all, believes he can defy me. But I will squash him. No, not that… that’s too easy.
Instead, once I capture him, I will put him on trial for genocide against the Russian speaking people of Ukraine, and for being a Nazi. He says he’s Jewish, but I know he’s a Nazi.
How dare that man become a symbol of bravery while I, me, yes, Vladimir Putin, after all I’ve done, become a symbol of cruelty to the world. But it’s all disinformation. All of it. I am right, everyone else is wrong.
And I will kill, kill, kill until all of Ukraine is mine. Every corner of it.
Biden calls me a war criminal. What does he know.
I will join with China and together we’ll crush America.
But first… yes, first… I must have all of Ukraine, dead or alive. I don’t care.
My troops are now advancing again. And I’m firing more and more missiles, to destroy their towns and schools and hospitals. Everything that stands.
He wants to talk, says Zelensky. But there’s nothing to talk. I’ve already made it clear that I need total surrender. Everything.
And if he doesn’t surrender… if my army is not enough… then I’ll drop a bomb on Kyiv. A big, fat, nuclear bomb… and I’ll flatten that city. And I’ll demand an immediate unconditional surrender or I’ll drop a second nuclear bomb, on Lviv.
And Russians will love me… and the Chinese too… yes… they all will. And we’ll start all over again in Ukraine. Like the Japanese did. In fact, I’ll help write their new constitution’.

Meanwhile, in a suburb of St Petersburg, in the basement of an apartment building, a group of Russian officers have gathered in a secret meeting that is now drawing to a close.
There are seven officers gathered in a circle, facing each other. Three of them are women. The meeting was convened by officer Y7X – his code name – who now addresses the participants.
Officer Y7X – ‘His actions do not represent the essence of our country. We invaded on February 24th and we have not even seized Kyiv. Instead, we’re killing civilians, women and children. How are we going to explain this to our heirs? How will our nation explain it to history?
We are a strong and smart country. We were the first in space, we have made important contributions in the arts, in science, in industry, but under this man’s leadership we have come to worship weapons above all else and to lend support to dictators everywhere. We have lost our purpose’.
Officer Y9G – ‘It is the moment to act. We’re all conscious of what’s at stake. And the personal risks we run’.
Officer Y4M – ‘This may be the last time we see each other. But we have made our choices’.
Officer Y5Z – ‘We may yet prevent the use of chemical weapons or worse, of nuclear ones’.
Officer Y2Q – ‘The odds are against us succeeding, I believe we are all aware of that, and yet we know we must proceed. If we fail, we commit to not betraying each other’.
Officer Y8H – ‘Conscious as we are that, should we fail, the actions we are about to take may never be made public’.
Officer 76D – ‘And that neither our spouses nor our children will ever learn of them’.
Now officer Y7X stands and holding up his clenched fist says, ‘For Russia!’
They all stand and repeat in unison. ‘For Russia!’
Each officer embraces every other member of the group and one by one, with intervals of a few minutes, leave their location.

Oscar Valdes oscar.valdes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

Mr Putin’s Fall Has Begun

Photo by Mathias P.R. Reding on Pexels.com

He thought it would be easy. Surround Ukraine with 200,000 soldiers, war planes, tanks and missiles, make threatening noises and gestures, and Ukrainians would look at each other and realize they had no chance. A nuclear superpower was demanding their surrender: give up their government and demilitarize. If not, they would be run over.

Accustomed to most Russians – not all – bowing to him and not protesting, Putin thought Ukrainians would respond the same way. After all, he had already taken Crimea from them in 2014, and they had been pushed back in the Donbas area.
Putin reasoned Ukrainians would be tired of war and would just stand by, perhaps even applaud as his troops rolled into Kyiv, unopposed.
He would then meet with their president, a former comedian, pat him on the back and put him on a bus to Poland.
There would be protests in the West but they would all calm down once they realized he could cut off their oil and gas supplies and hurt their pocketbooks.

But something different happened.
Ukrainians said, hell no! This is our land and we’ll defend it.
So Putin ordered the troops to move in, still hoping the sounds of the tanks and the roar of the jets would bring Ukrainians to their senses.
They did not.
What has followed has been an unbelievable story of courage and determination, with their president, Volodymyr Zelensky, committing to the task of leadership with great valor.
That amazing story has shaken the West out of their complacency and united them in support of Ukraine.

A divided EU-US alliance has found new vigor and a willingness to stand firm against the aggressor. Sanctions that were not enforced when Putin invaded Crimea, now had a devastating effect.
Just yesterday, Putin went on TV to tell Russians who still believe the story that Ukraine is a Nazi threat, to prepare for yet more hardships, as they contend with job losses, inflation and growing scarcities as a result of the sanctions.
Russia is now on the verge of defaulting on their debt.
The assets it holds in foreign banks, American and European, are frozen. They cannot be used to pay down Russia’s debt.

Putin spoke calmly, promising relief to his fellow Russians who believe they are on the right side of history.
But what I didn’t see in his expression was a trace of remorse.
The thousands of casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian, meant nothing to him.
The horror of the carnage doesn’t touch him.
He is, somehow, insulated from it.
Over 3 million Ukrainian refugees have fled to the West in search of safety – mothers with their children – while the men of fighting age stay behind to resist the barbaric Russian onslaught.
The thousands of dead and maimed don’t seem to weigh on Putin’s conscience.
How did that happen?

He first became prime minister in 1999 and has been in power ever since.
How is it possible that all the leaders he’s come in contact with over the years, didn’t get the essence of the man?
The ascent of Putin has been the failure of leadership in the West.
And the failure of the Russian people – not all – to not stand up against him.
But now the end is near.
The unceasing brutality he’s unleashed on Ukrainians has been seen by everybody, except Russians themselves, for they live in a censored bubble.
Where can he go hide?

China, in its remarkable denial of the extent of the savagery, has become his accomplice.
And Putin is counting on them to circumvent the sanctions.
But the West won’t be easily side stepped.
Putin has begun his fall but he remains a dangerous adversary.
Knowing that his end is near, he will not tolerate the defeat of his army and will resort to nuclear weapons if he thought it would spare him the embarrassment.
Will he fire a nuclear weapon on Kyiv? It is possible.
Will he fire several? He may.
Putin will not survive the scorn he has earned from the rest of humanity, but he may yet stay in power a while longer, until Russians choose to retire him.
The world is waiting.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.