Biden – Page 3 – Oscar Valdes

Immigration and the Upcoming Elections

It was the Arizona governor – Ducey – who started it, then came Abbott from Texas and now DeSantis from Florida. Gathering up undocumented immigrants who, having crossed the border, detained and released pending a hearing of their case, were put in a bus (DeSantis uses planes) and sent to a different state willing to provide assistance until the time of their hearing.
The governors reasoned they would be endearing themselves to the voters in the upcoming elections by stressing their loyalty to Trump.
DeSantis recently put a group of undocumented Venezuelans, fleeing the communist dictatorship in their country, on a plane to Martha’s Vineyard, the elegant island resort in Massachusetts.
DeSantis’ choice of destination had an added punch. ‘You’re well off over there, aren’t you, in your privileged island, so you deal with it.’
Those bused or flown may or may not have valid reasons to seek asylum in this country, but the governors are saying, ‘we don’t have to go into all that, we’re just not going to feed or lodge you or provide any assistance whatsoever.’
The governors’ actions, however, won’t make much of a difference. Trump’s standing is slowly eroding and there’s no stopping the decline.
From the undocumented’s perspective, better to be in a place where they understand their plight and are willing to provide assistance, than to be in a place where they are unwelcome.
I can imagine a phone conversation between a recent arrival in Martha’s Vineyard, and his relatives back in Venezuela, ‘Where are you, Pepe?’, ‘Martha’s Vineyard…’ ‘What?’ ‘It’s very nice, a lot of rich people live here…’, ‘Not a bad start, brother…’, ‘Agree. I’m sure a lot of Trump’s people would like to be here, too.’ They laugh.
Immigration is a thorny issue. It needs mending.
For that, the ideal would be to have a national dialogue. A dialogue that is filled with data showing just how much immigrants contribute to this country.
Labor economists who are knowledgeable on the matter would provide the figures.
I am sure business would want a seat at the table where decisions were to be made and I don’t doubt they would speak clearly on behalf of allowing immigration to continue, with whatever modifications were necessary.
But should immigration be severely restricted simply to satisfy Trump’s base? No.
No, because we need the labor and the creativity and the dynamism that immigration offers.
The browning of America is inevitable. And immigration has played a role in lessening the antiblack sentiment in this country and helped heal those wounds.
The midterms are near and Republicans are worried.
Many Republicans are upset with the overturning of Roe vs Wade. Particularly women.
Biden has shown exemplary leadership to assist the enormous heroism of the Ukrainian people.
As a result, Ukraine is starting to turn the war around.
Many Republicans are also seething with envy that it wasn’t them doing the leading, making it hard to stomach that their man, in Mar-a-Lago, cannot hide his admiration for Putin. Talk about going against the tide of history.
Biden has eliminated a large portion of student debt, freeing resources and minds who are most grateful and will show up at the ballot box.
Covid is still sidelining people which adds to our labor shortages, so whatever immigration can bring, is most welcome.
Inflation has proven difficult to deal with but progress has been made and the price of gasoline has steadily gone down. With interest rates rising globally we may see a recession but there is no consensus on how severe it will be.
So, the busing shenanigans is a side show, with no relevance in the wide spectrum of things.
With added weaponry, Ukraine is likely to push Russia back to behind its borders and a stronger West will better organize its efforts to neutralize the influence of the China-Russia alliance.
To get a little ahead of myself, in the next presidential elections, Americans will reelect a democrat, whether Biden chooses to run or not.
The Republican side is now confused and will remain so for a while, unable to provide an attractive alternative.

Oscarvaldes.medium.com

Why Putin Won’t Go Nuclear

The recent advances by Ukrainian troops and their recapturing of territory has further raised the possibility that they may defeat the Russian army.
If so, how will Putin respond?
Some speculate that without a face saving outcome, without his having something to show Russians to justify the loss of life and resources, his political standing would be in jeopardy and he will be inclined to use nuclear weapons.
I disagree. I believe Putin has intimidated his countrymen so thoroughly that they will accept the losses. And if internal forces unite to remove him from power he will outsmart them and send them to prison with long sentences, like Alexei Navalny, if not underground.
He’s determined to die while in power and, barring some unmanageable illness, he’ll live for another 30 years. Sad for Russians but that’s who they’re choosing.
There’s another reason Putin won’t go nuclear.
China. Xi Jinping.
The chairman, who also wants to die in power, doesn’t want to get caught in the crossfire should Putin wish to go nuclear.
Xi, who’s closely following the recent developments, would be the first to remind Putin that Ukrainian flesh has become Western flesh.
The chairman will tell Putin, ‘because of their heroism in the battlefield, which your troops have not shown, Ukrainians have conquered the hearts and minds of the western world. They are now part of them. So, to put it bluntly, Vladimir, if you choose to use nuclear weapons on Ukrainians because you’re despairing that your soldiers can’t stop running back, and abandoning valuable armament in the process, it will not just be Ukrainian flesh burning with radioactivity, but western flesh. And the west will hit back hard… and they will tell me, Chairman, screw you, you’re an accomplice of Putin, you’ve had a hand in supporting him and his henchmen, so we’re going after you, too. So it won’t be only Russian flesh burning with radioactivity but Chinese flesh also… and how will I be able to explain that to my people?
And they’ll lose confidence in me and I won’t be able to rule until I die, like Mao did. I won’t be able to see China become the foremost power in the world, ten times superior to the Americans.’
Putin will hear this, if he hasn’t already, and decide to either militarize his entire nation, announcing that a new Hitler has appeared in Ukraine and Russia’s existence is in danger, so they must all remember their great WWII hero, Stalin, and fight again with the same tenacity they once did, or say to his people that the setback Russia has suffered is temporary and they now must regroup and plan their next assault.
Putin is a determined man. He will kill whoever gets in his way.
His nation has abundant resources but the West will need to learn to live without them. That is our challenge. Live without them so we can isolate him. And hope that Russians will one day awaken from their long sleep and retire their leader. Give him a pension and, as punishment, force him to watch video replays of all the destruction he’s caused. Roll by him the names of all the people who’ve died because of his actions. Russians and Ukrainians. Watch in the morning and in the afternoon. One hour break for lunch.
In the meantime, the recent Ukrainian advances tell us exactly what must be done.
Give those brave soldiers every weapon they need and let them drive Russia back to behind its borders.
We’re almost there.
We can win.

Oscarvaldes.medium.com

Putin and Xi Talk War

Putin flies to Beijing to meet Xi Jinping. They sit across in Xi’s office.

Putin – Things are not going as well as I thought.

Xi nods slowly.

Putin – I underestimated the West and… Ukrainians also. I thought they would just pee in their pants when they saw our army gather around them. They didn’t. I should’ve known better, since they have been fighting hard against us in the East for years now. For the first time… I’m beginning to doubt that we can beat them. I didn’t think the West would care that much… but they do. I thought the Far Right was stronger… Trump got 74 million votes in 2020… but the Far Right turned out to be a loud minority with little real clout. Same as in Europe. The Germans surprised me, also… I thought they would resist Biden.

(brief pause)

Jinping… I have thought of using nuclear weapons.

Xi – That’s a bad idea.

Putin – Why?

Xi – It would piss off the West… and I would find it hard to convince the central committee to continue to help you evade sanctions. Vladimir… China is not self sufficient… not yet… and hard as we try we may never be. The West is creative. In spite of all their problems, they keep inventing… and they come up with stuff that we need. We’re inventive, too, of course, and no nation, ever, has developed as much as we have in just 40 years. But we didn’t do it alone.

Putin – You think I made a mistake in invading Ukraine?

Xi – Yes. You waited too long.

Putin – How so?

Xi – You should’ve done it when Trump was in office. He was fighting with the European Union.

Putin nods, the mood dejected.

Putin – Can you help?

Xi – We’re buying your oil, gas and minerals… buying your wheat…

Putin – I mean, with weapons.

Xi shakes his head slowly.

Xi – We’re doing enough, Vladimir. As I said before… we need the West. Are you worried about growing dissent at home?

Putin – A little. The killing of Daria Dugina, Aleksandr Dugin’s daughter is not a good sign. But my security system is top notch. We track everyone and have for years. They’ll get to the bottom of it.

Xi – What about Alexei Navalny, your opposition leader?

Putin – Still in prison… will die in prison.

Xi leans forward in his seat as he faces Putin.

Xi – This may be the time to stop the war.

The two men lock eyes.

Xi – Ask for a cease fire… offer to give up all the territory you’ve gained since the invasion. Ask for the United Nations to mediate. Not Turkey, not France but the United Nations. And emphasize that the loss of lives will come to an end. Assure the world you will not block the shipment of grains out of Ukraine.

Putin rests his face in his hands.

Xi – Zelensky will object but the West may welcome the offer and put pressure on him to accept. It’s their money and weapons that’s helped keep the war effort alive. Ending the loss of lives will have Ukrainians welcoming the offer also. Clearly, such offer will be seen as a defeat for you, but better to cut your losses. At home, you should have no worries. You have Russians firmly under your control. Hard as it is, It’s time to accept the consequences. After all the damage done, there’s little chance you will ever regain the standing you had in the world prior to the invasion, but if you stick with the war it will get a lot worse. Even if you were to beat Ukraine, it would still be a loss. To me, given what’s happened so far, pursuing a military victory is a mistake.

Putin looks up at Xi.

Putin – What about you and Taiwan?

Xi – I will not invade Taiwan until I am absolutely sure of victory.

Putin – There’s no such thing as absolutely sure.

Xi – Time will tell.

Putin – My reason for the war was that I didn’t want to see Russia surrounded by NATO. After all this effort, with the addition of Finland and Sweden to NATO, we’re even more surrounded than before. Seven months into the war, after all the destruction, I’m farther from my objective than at the start.

Xi – If you persist… It will likely only get worse.

Putin – You don’t think I can win?

Xi – No.

Putin – But if you helped me with weapons…

Xi – We’ve gone over that. The Central Committee won’t agree to it.

(pause)

Be thankful that the Russian people have given you complete control over their lives. They’ll forgive you.

A few minutes later they embrace, say goodbye and Putin departs to return to Russia.

Xi Jinping remains in his office.

Xi – He asked about Taiwan… and he’s right, there’s no way I can be absolutely sure an invasion would be successful. Putin has complete control over his people… and yet… he couldn’t get his soldiers to fight as hard as Ukrainians have.

He pivots his chair to look out the window and take in a grand view of the city.

Xi – Will I be able to get my soldiers to fight as hard as the Taiwanese?

Oscarvaldes.medium.com

Person of the Year

Photo by u00c7au011fu0131n KARGI on Pexels.com

Every year, TIME magazine comes up with their person of the year. It comes up on the cover of their very last issue for that year.
So I was wondering who would be the chosen person for 2022.
Putin is a consideration, since his actions have convulsed the world, economically, politically morally, geographically. The award is not given for merit but for how consequential the person’s actions were.
Joe Biden is another consideration since he has played a key role in uniting the West in defense of Ukraine.
Volodymyr Zelensky is a strong candidate given the manner in which he has embraced his leadership role, rallied his people against the invaders while also working very hard at getting the rest of the world to step up and support his country’s fight.
But my choice is not any one person.
My choice is Ukraine itself.
Ukraine itself for its enormous courage in defense of their freedom to exist and to choose their destiny.
Thousands of Ukrainians, men, women and children, have died in defense of their beliefs.
Their country has been torn apart by the brutality of Putin and yet there they are, day after day, continuing to resist.
That pluck, that steady courage, has invigorated the West, reminding us of how dear freedom is.
Ukrainians’ determination to assert themselves has helped Germany look at itself and reflect, ‘how come we became so dependent on Putin and Russia for our energy needs?’ ‘What manner of denial had we allowed ourselves to lapse into, believing that a man like Putin, clearly known for eliminating his adversaries, incarcerating his foes, assisting despots and tyrants oppress their people, i.e. Syria, would spare us his wrath when things didn’t go his way?’
Why, even a former German chancellor was sitting in a prominent position in a Russian energy company. And Germans knew it all along.
Sadly, much of that occurred while Angela Merkel was still chancellor, which tarnishes her legacy.
Ukraine’s fierceness in defending their land has inspired Americans to fight back against internal forces that seek to diminish it. To fight back against leaders who polarize and incite hate against fellow Americans.
Had Donald Trump been reelected in 2020, there would have been no governmental support for the Ukrainian resistance, for Trump, steeped in his own denial about who Putin is, would have not objected to Russia’s taking over Ukraine.
Because of Ukraine, NATO is stronger in its commitment to defend its member nations. Finland and Sweden are scheduled to join the alliance and already enjoy its protections.
Because of Ukraine, the European Union, is a stronger union.
Britain, in spite of pulling out of the EU, has played a key role in assisting Ukraine and now trains some of its soldiers.
The grand effort Ukraine has put out, marks it as a special land in our world today.
Yet there are dissenters. Those who point out that Ukraine had been well known for its corruption before the war and should not be trusted.
But people change. Nations change. Courage in defense of their land does something to its people.
Whatever effort and moneys the western alliance has poured and will continue to pour into Ukraine is amply justified.
We should continue to do for Ukraine whatever is needed to ensure their freedom.
They have done much for the West and the rest of the world.
So it is Ukraine that deserves to be person of the year. One nation, one person.

Oscarvaldes.medium.com

Gorbachev and China’s Central Committee II

Chairman Xi Jinping’s office. Member # 7 sits across.

Chairman – It took a lot of guts to say what you said.

Member # 7 – This is a historic moment. President Biden has seized the day in the West with his support of Ukraine and you can seize the day in the East. I believe you’re willing to accept that the stimulus from the West has been critical to our tremendous economic and military growth.

Xi nods slowly.

Member # 7 – We have seen how strong our people are, how creative… we do not need to steal anything from the West… by just trading with them fairly we’ll gradually become better at competing with them. If we create better products they will buy our better products… If we create better chips they will buy our better chips… If we create better batteries and solar panels they will buy them too… And it will be them trying to imitate us… They now make better planes than we do… but that can change… What I wish to emphasize is that we just need to compete… and do so fairly… and trust that we have the capacity to create things that not only America, but the whole world will want. We have the capacity to continue to rise without getting paranoid that the West will try to obstruct us… or without us making them paranoid that we’re in to harm them. If we were to prove that we’re better, then they will accept that we’re better… And it will motivate them to improve themselves… not to want to harm us.

Chairman – It’s a very rosy way of seeing things… but you may have a point.

Member # 7 – Chairman… by stirring paranoia in our people about the West, we end up harming ourselves. It may help you stay in power but in the end, history will not be kind to you.

Chairman – How so?

Member # 7 – As we develop we yearn for political freedom… and if the party, as it now stands, will not allow for it… we incur in a basic contradiction that hampers our progress and should be exposed.

Chairman Xi smiles.

Member # 7 – You disagree…?

Chairman – I wonder how it is that you were able to hide all those beliefs to the point of becoming a member of the central committee.

Member # 7 (smiles) – It hasn’t been easy. If I may be allowed to continue…

Chairman – Please do.

Member # 7 – What we have accomplished shows that if we put our minds to it, we can outcompete America and the West. We are more disciplined socially and politically…

Chairman – But don’t you think that we are more disciplined precisely because it is being imposed by the communist party?

Member # 7 – True… but it should not go on much longer and I think we’re reaching our limit. We have to trust that we have learned the importance of political discipline and not do as America where their people have become so polarized that a group of dissenters tried to overturn their free election results. Of course, any government transition ought to be done in stages.

Chairman Xi pushes back slightly from his desk. He clasps his hands on his lap.

Chairman – What do you think of our assisting companies in their development?

Member # 7 – It has helped… but it has also created inefficiencies and corruption… which is why it would be best to allow more freedom in the markets… with less interference from the party. We now stand at a very critical moment… America is not a threat to us militarily… modern history shows they are not trying to take over countries… and if another nation outperforms them in the production of goods, then they will try to compete with that other nation, not threaten them with harm. Of course, a strong military is always important… I’m all for it… but we need to let go of our paranoia. Are we making a demon of America to keep the party in power?

Chairman Xi stirs in his seat.

Member # 7 – Putin has done great harm to the world with his invasion of Ukraine but he is a limited man, who has restricted wealth creation to a selected few. We did not to that. Millions of Chinese have opened businesses and continue to do so. What we need now is political freedom. And you, Chairman Xi, can make a huge difference by holding free elections. I am sure you would become the nation’s first freely elected president.

Chairman (leaning forward slightly) – You realize that I would have to convince a lot of people in the central committee and in the communist party to make that happen. There would be much resistance… same as what happened to Gorbachev.

Member # 7 – Yes, but you’d be surprised at how many people already are thinking that way…

Chairman (interested) – Like who, for instance?

Member # 7 (smiling slyly) – They should speak for themselves… in case I misunderstood what they shared with me.

Chairman – I appreciate your honesty… and I am sure you mean well. Dissent is difficult to manage if not stopped early. We have the example of Hong Kong… the Uyghurs in Xinjiang… and yet, while I don’t share your enthusiasm, I see your point. What do you think was Gorbachev’s mistake?

Member # 7 – Resigning. I say that with the benefit of hindsight… I wasn’t there and I am sure the difficulties he faced were many. Boris Yeltsin had stopped the coup against him, there was much dissatisfaction in the people and he was preoccupied with the health of his wife who’d had a stroke. Still, I think he should have stayed on and called for free elections in a couple of years, for instance.

Chairman – Good point. I promise you I will consider carefully what you’ve told me and address the matter in one of our upcoming sessions. Meanwhile, I ask that you not continue to speak to others about your ideas. It would be best for all of us.

Member # 7 – Chairman Xi, I am honored that you have given me this opportunity to speak my mind. I have spoken in the hope that our nation will continue to prosper and become the star we are destined to be. Thank you.

Chairman – You may leave now.

Member # 7 bows, rises and starts to leave but stops at the door and turns around.

Member # 7 – It is my belief that America is afraid we’ll become better than them… not only economically but politically, too. The race between our nations is the contest of the century.

He exits.

Chairman Xi pulls up to his desk, picks up the phone and dials National Security.

National Security Official – Yes, Chairman.

Chairman – I need a report on all contacts, phone, internet and personal, that Member # 7 has had in the last year, including places he’s travelled to.

National Security Official – As you know, he’s been under observation, so it won’t take long. We’ll have it in your office tomorrow, by early afternoon. Anything else?

Chairman – That’s all.

He hangs up, then swivels in his chair to look out the window and take in a grand view of Beijing.

Chairman – First freely elected president of China? Interesting… and appealing. Possible?

Oscarvaldes.medium.com

Putin and the Mirror of China

The war with Ukraine has not turned out the way Putin wanted.
And it has exposed how inadequate his system of government is.
The quick victory he envisioned, ‘everybody lie down because here comes the mighty Vladimir’, didn’t happen.
The West has united against him and seems willing to endure more pain from the energy shortages that are expected in the months ahead.
Russians in their homeland can’t even speak of the war going on in Ukraine – they must call it a ‘special military operation’ – or they will be thrown in jail.
In spite of the sanctions imposed, Putin has managed to sell his oil and realize a large profit, but there are things that are not lost on the discerning Russian.
Putin’s system is a failure. And to see that, they need only hold up the mirror of China.
Putin has been in office since 1999, and during that same period, China’s economic development has vastly outpaced Russia’s.
China opened up to the West and its investors and became the second largest economy in the world. Meanwhile Russia is not even in the top 10, behind Brazil and Canada.
What happened?
Putin happened. His autocratic style reserved for himself and his choice of oligarchs the right to benefit from their nation’s vast riches in commodities. And they have done so, at a price.
The price is wasted opportunity and diminished national development.
In the meantime, China, with all its problems, rose to become the second largest economy in the world. They came up with a system that let them take advantage of what the West had to offer and made the most of it.
China faces other difficulties, but their citizens were given enough economic freedoms to become inventive and in doing so have realized much of their economic potential with more in store.
Russians under Putin have not been able to do so. Yet they could have, for they are a talented people.
So Russians now have the mirror of China to stare at and wonder what they should do next.
Putin has not elevated them but degraded them instead. Russians need to acknowledge that. Their economic and cultural development has been stunted by a leader who, feeling diminished by the greater progress of many other countries, came up with the absurd plan to bolster Russia’s position by appropriating Ukraine, no matter how many people, men, women and children he had to kill in the process.
His action was born out of envy and the realization that he had failed as a leader.
He thought the West would shake in fear at his daring but he got it wrong. And now, trapped by his stupidity, he thinks only of how to kill even more Ukrainians as a way out.
But the West will hold.
It will because it’s the right thing to do, and because doing so inspires other nations now under Putin’s influence, to fight for their freedom and contribute to a better world. Countries like Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, who may now feel invigorated to strike out on their own.
The time is now to join the Free World.

Oscarvaldes.medium.com, apple podcasts

Putin in his Bunker

He’s alone in the room. He’s ordered dinner but he has some time yet.
It’s an ample room so he has space to stroll.
On his desk a series of phones are neatly arranged, along with some papers that arrived earlier which he has not finished reading.
On the wall across, in front of the desk, a bank of monitors show images of the war.
He’s standing in the center of the room, hands behind his back, head slightly bowed.

‘I admit… the invasion has been a mistake. I underappreciated Biden… and I overestimated the power of the Far Right in America. I clearly did not imagine that Europe would embrace America after the way that Trump had treated them.
And also grossly underestimated the will of the Ukrainian people… and that a small time comedian like Zelensky would have it in him to rise as a leader.
Those are grave mistakes on my part… and I’m not coming up with a way to undo them.’

He walks a short stretch and stops.

‘I am surprised that the Russian people have been so cooperative… so willing to believe everything I say to them. Which gives me hope that I can pull out of this hole I’ve dug myself into. But there’s no hiding from the fact that I will be a diminished leader on the world stage.’

He rubs his face slowly.

‘That hurts. I’m not winning the war. I didn’t imagine that America would be so vigorous in their defense of Ukraine. That they would be willing to spend so much money to back them up.
Why, even Republicans have joined in the effort. I missed that completely.
Biden has not got enough credit for his leadership of the western alliance…but he will… which is why I think he will be reelected… if he chooses to run… and does not fall ill.
As to Trump… he’s done… he won’t recover.
But will I?
I’ve fallen from a position of being feared, even respected… to being called a killer. And what leader from the top nations of the world will want to meet with me?
I’ll have to content myself with meeting with Viktor Orban, Modi, Xi Jinping, Erdogan, Marcos and other lesser figures.’

He turns around to see images of the bombing of a Russian depot in Crimea on the TV monitors.

‘A lot of Russians have died because of my decisions. How long will they be patient? Daria Dugin’s car was bombed. It was probably meant for Aleksandr, her father. Will they try to get to me? Yes. But I’m well protected.
Still, it won’t look good if an attempt is made on my life.’

He walks a few paces forward.

‘What options do I have? The way things are going, I don’t think we can beat the Ukrainians. Not with their motivation to fight and their help from the West.
I have talked about using nuclear weapons but if I do, retaliation will come. Xi has been very clear that it would be a bad choice.
But there are other things I could try… like targeting Zelensky himself and bringing him here, if he survives. I’ve had a hit squad training for that purpose for a while.
It would be demoralizing for his people. In the confusion, we push forward, gain more territory and right away ask for negotiations to end the war. So we split Ukraine. Having gained territory I can call it a victory.
I then offer to resume gas shipments at lower prices and that would relieve pressure on Europe.
As to Zelensky, I’d keep him as a hostage… put him on trial for crimes against humanity.’

He walks forward a few more steps, looking up now, more confident.

‘I’ll never regain the world standing I had but… so long as Russians want me, I’ll be their leader.’

A call comes in announcing that dinner is ready. He buzzes in the waitress, Hanna, who brings in the dishes and sets them on his desk. She bows, turns and leaves.

‘I’ve diminished myself as a man by my own hand and yet… I still see a future for myself.’

He smiles.

‘Sooner or later… some courageous Russians will encircle my bunker and tell me it’s all over. Just go into retirement, Mr Putin. It could be anybody… anybody with the guts to risk their lives. I know they’re out there… waiting for the right moment to strike. But they’ll have to be good… very good.’

He sits down to eat. He inspects the bottle of wine and opens it. In the last couple of months he’s only been drinking wines from 1999. The year he first became prime minister. He pours himself a glass, swirls the wine, then raises the glass for a toast.

‘To my future. To never giving up’.

He drinks. ‘Delicious.’

He turns off the monitors on the wall and looks at his music selection. He picks Tchaikovsky. His 1812 Overture. The Story of Napoleon’s defeat by the Russian army.

Oscarvaldes.medium.com, apple podcasts

Why We Won’t Reelect Trump.

Trump is a symbol of retreat from the world. Which appeals to the nativist.
But it is the wrong position to take.
If Trump had been elected in 2020, there would’ve been no war in Ukraine.
He would have given Putin the green light to take it over.
‘Look Donald,’ Putin would have said, ‘I need space. I know you’re not a great supporter of NATO so I appreciate that, but still, I need some room. Poland is too close, and so is Romania and the Baltic states. And let’s face it, you have term limits in the US. After this term, who knows who will become president and they may be hostile to Russia. So this is the time for me to take over Ukraine and have some breathing room. Just in case.’
And Trump would have answered, ‘I know what you mean, I feel cramped myself with all those democrats questioning every decision I make, so, yes, go ahead. But make it quick. An overnight operation should do. Fly Zelensky and his cabinet over to Berlin… though Berlin may be too close. I leave that up to you. I’d consider Mogadishu in Somalia. I hear they have nice beaches.’
Repression would have been ruthless in Ukraine but Putin would have got his legislative body to formally annex it.
Europe would have been speechless, and they would have said to themselves, ‘we can’t look to America anymore… so either we develop our own defensive forces or we’ll be annexed next, one nation at a time.’
But in 2020, enough Americans saw the light and more than 81 million came out in favor of Biden, versus the 74 million Trump got.
If a majority of Americans rejected Trump in 2020, more will reject him in 2024 if he decides to run as he’s suggesting he will.
What do I say that? Because the majority of Americans have only become more clearly convinced in the last 2 years that Trump is an atrocious choice for president.
We don’t know yet if he cheated on his taxes but he may have. Why so adamant about sharing the documents? A verdict has not been issued on whether he incited the crowd to storm the capitol on January 6th 2021, but if we don’t call it inciting, what do we call it? Did he tamper with the voting in Fulton county, Georgia, in his mad attempt to prove the election was stolen from him? We’ll have to wait but he surely was desperate.
Then there’s the sad spectacle of Republican senators who cannot stand up to him. Grown, mature men who have swallowed their tongue, waiting for the next instruction from Mar-a- Lago.
The majority of Americans are watching silently this unbelievable display of poor judgment and have made up their minds.
By contrast, this same majority, is seeing Joe Biden be a leader to our nation. They are seeing a man and his team making every effort to address our national problems and taking on the courageous job of uniting the West in opposing Putin’s cruel invasion of Ukraine.
Biden, not Trump, had the nerve to call Putin ‘a killer’, to call Russia a pariah state.
We either believe in the good judgment of the American people or we don’t.
I believe in it. Which is why I am sure, that Trump will not get reelected if he chooses to run.
He will be beat handily. By Biden, or any worthy democratic candidate.
The elections in 2024 will go to the democrats. The reason is simple. The Republican party is being choked by Trump and they can’t find a way of pushing him off and say to him, ‘Let us breathe!’
The nativist sentiment that propelled him to the presidency remains a factor which needs addressing. The resentment from having been left behind by globalization is real and needs to be worked with. But there is no easy way out as Trump thought.
Americans left behind should be entitled to educational grants to facilitate their education and so help them raise their standard of living. They should have fought for this as globalization was starting. But their leaders, too, were asleep at the wheel.
Immigration needs to be fixed but we need immigrants. A wall won’t do because it sends a horrible message to the rest of the world.
As an open society, we can deal with the Trumps of this world. We may be fooled once but not twice.
As we speak, Russia is slowly imploding under the disastrous rule of Putin.
China has plans to become the world’s dominant power and is watching us carefully.
But as long as we are a well governed nation, with opportunities for all, our productivity will give us the edge to remain a leading country and a defender of freedom and the rights of human beings.
This we can trust.

Oscarvaldes.medium.com, apple podcasts

The Republican Senator

He’s in his office, in Washington D.C., thinking about his circumstances.
He’s not pleased.
The congressional hearings investigating the attack on the Capitol on January 6th are still going on. He wishes they would go away, but there they are, day after day.
Secretly – he hasn’t said a word about it to anyone – he wishes he’d had the guts that Liz Cheney has shown, taking a leading role in investigating Donald Trump’s part in the attack.
She is doing what she thinks needs to be done, not what her constituency wants her to do.
That’s the hard part, he thinks to himself. Going against your constituency.
‘It takes a certain kind of courage.’
‘The congressional investigation has uncovered enough, as if the facts themselves, as reported by the press at the time of the event, hadn’t been sufficient.’
‘Donald Trump had incited the crowd to march on the Capitol with the intention of disrupting the counting of the electoral ballots. Clearly an assault on democracy.’
Yet there he is, as Senator, sitting in his office, unable to say so.
A pang of shame fills him for a moment.
If he spoke out against Trump he’d face harsh criticism from his constituency. They would demand that he resign. And then, what would he do with his life?
All the attention he gets now would be gone.
No more ‘Senator, tell us about this, Senator, tell us about that…’ No more reporters chasing after him, photographers clicking their cameras, newspapers quoting him, lobbyists wanting his approval, trips here or there to investigate this or that, meetings with foreign leaders… and worst of all… losing the possibility of being picked for secretary of state or… dream of dreams… as a running mate for the presidency.
All he needs to do to keep those possibilities alive is to not criticize Trump.
All he needs is to simply keep lying to himself, repeating that on January 6th, Trump didn’t really incite his followers to march on capitol hill to disrupt the electoral ballot counting… that what he really was doing was asking his supporters to remind the ballot counters of their sacred duty to the country. Remind them to do the patriotic thing. But then things got out of hand.
‘But you cannot hang that on Trump,’ he repeats to himself.
‘The president would never, ever, try to disrupt the democratic process. Far from it, instead, Trump would offer his life to defend it. Because that’s who he is.’
The senator takes a deep breath. ‘It will blow over. I just have to wait it out. We all have to.’
‘I just don’t think I could live without all that attention I get every day.’
‘I’ll admit, it’s a little sad… to have become such attention junkie. But I would get very depressed if I didn’t have it. In a way, though, to have become so dependent on the opinions of my constituency is unsettling… I’m their mouthpiece.’
The thought of Liz Cheney comes to him again. ‘How can she do it? Surely, she won’t be reelected. So what will she do with her life?’
‘Hmm. Maybe, because of her willingness to disagree, she’ll get some nice offers to be a board member with some big companies. She’d get stock options and so forth. And she’d have that pride, that lasting satisfaction, that she’s made a name for herself. People might revile her, but they will remember her for her guts. That’s a nice way to be remembered.’
The Senator leans forward, rubs his face.
‘All is not lost. I could still change my mind.’
‘What makes matters worse is that I don’t think Trump will win the Republican nomination. There will be a big rift in the party and DeSantis will be chosen to run in 2024. But we won’t win the presidency, unless Biden screws up… but so far, unbelievably, he’s holding up.’
‘I don’t think we’ll win the presidency because Biden’s done a good job on the war in Ukraine… and I don’t think we’ll go into a recession… and if we do, it will be mild.’
The Senator stands up and goes to the window where he stands looking out.
‘But what if… I changed my mind and… came out in support of Liz Cheney?’
He smiles.
‘The phone wouldn’t stop ringing and right away Trump would endorse someone to run against me this Fall.’
He laughs.
‘My family would be all upset… but I’d explain and they’d settle down. I’d tell them that I have to do it for myself… for my self-respect. I’d figure out something to do with my time. It’s not like I haven’t earned a decent living before. And if, later on, I’d want to return to Washington, I’m sure I can find a job as a lobbyist.’
‘But do I have it in me to go against the pack?’
He looks out, a determined expression now coming to his face.
‘Deep inside, we’d all want to be like Liz Cheney… and maybe… just maybe… I’m due for a good fight in my life.’

Oscarvaldes.medium.com, apple podcasts

Are We Becoming More Violent?

Two friends, Craig and Walter, talk about the state of the nation.

Craig – Would you say that we’re becoming more violent?
Walter – Yes, I’d say that.
Craig – What do you think contributes to it?
Walter – The internet.
Craig – How so?
Walter – It’s now so easy to put anything you think of out there. Without the benefit of inner censors. So the most outlandish ideas get to circulate and gain supporters.
Soon enough people start making things up. Twisting facts. Selling fake news.
It’s odd. The greater ease of publication has led to less thinking rather than more thinking.
People are quicker to insult, to bash other people.
In democracies, inner censors are crucial, but that’s the task of a good education.
Leading up to the 2020 elections there was a news thread going around saying Joe Biden was a pedophile. I remember talking to an otherwise intelligent person and she swore it was true. She had seen it in a website, she said. I told the person those ideas were trash but she didn’t believe me.
‘I’ll send you the link,’ she replied. ‘Please don’t.’
Craig – Where do you think we’re heading?
Walter – More violence.
The church has failed. They’re in to preaching violence also. Take Iran. Salman Rushdie writes The Satanic Verses and the ayatollahs order him killed.
Craig – Have you read the book?
Walter – Parts of it. Rushdie is a very talented writer. Great command of the language. Amazing ease with words. He was making fun of religious beliefs, playing with them, taking artistic license, if you will, because that’s his talent. We need people to help us see religion in another light. But the ayatollahs saw his work as a great offense and issued an order to kill him.
It tells me those clerics are all closed minded. Men with fragile egos, their view of the world so narrow. It’s too bad they’re so many people in that nation who have not organized to revolt against the government.
So, on the one hand the church has failed us and on the other, people haven’t stepped up and learned to think for themselves. So you might say we’re in a transitional period, in a moral void.
I think we’re transitioning to discovering we have a mind. That we can think on our own. That we don’t have to wait for an ayatollah or a pope or a Putin or a Xi Jinping or a Narendra Modi or a Donald Trump or a Ron DeSantis to tell us how the cookie crumbles. It’s very sad to see the lack of intellectual independence in human beings.
In school there should be courses teaching us to think on our own. But the parents probably won’t allow it, because they may think the teachers are socialists. The parents, not able to think on their own, don’t want to allow their children to find their intellectual freedom.
We need more and more education early on. Teach us how to learn to manage envy, to be kinder to others.
Craig – So what do we do in the meantime?
Walter – With a few exceptions, we don’t have our best people in politics. The task of leadership is a civic duty. More of our best and brightest should be encouraged to run for office and so counter the professional politician with their set of alliances and bad habits.
We need leaders who can talk to us weekly and say, this is what is happening in our world, this is what needs to be done and why. It takes courage to do that.
We need men and women willing to lead and are not afraid of not getting reelected. People who can do what is best for our country regardless of whether it will be seen as popular or not.

Oscarvaldes.medium.com., apple podcasts