This is the time to push Russia back and out of Ukraine. Out of the Eastern section and out of Crimea as well. This is the time to push Russia back to behind its borders. Putin is losing the war. Desperate, he’s now bent on targeting all of Ukraine’s infrastructure, bombing dams and power plants. If his missiles were to hit a nuclear power plant, that alone would create a radioactive disaster with regional and global consequences. So this is the time to get those longer range missiles into action so Ukrainians can hit Russia’s supply lines and cripple their ground offensive. The momentum is with Ukraine as winter approaches. More people within Russia are speaking out against the war. The EU has wisely shut down the issuing of visas to Russian citizens. Russia’s shutdown of gas supplies to the EU in the hope of splintering the alliance is not having the expected effect. The EU has organized so they are creating efficiencies and helping each other if necessary. China knows well that Putin is on the defensive and will voice support for him but they will not support a losing effort. We in the West, meanwhile, must stay focused. Zelensky is right. Russia can be beat and should be beat. And what a difference that is from just before the invasion 7 months ago in February, when the world was filled with uncertainty about the outcome. Back then Putin looked like the grand strategist, the great master of geopolitics. Today he’s reduced to the size of a retreating petty tyrant who’s responsible for massacring tens of thousands of Ukrainians and willing to kill even more if he gets the chance. Putin has called prison inmates to fight in the war with the promise that, if they fight for 6 months, their sentences will be forgiven. He’s called in mercenaries, i.e. the Wagner Group (Russians), already on the ground. He’s flying drones sent from Iran, a theocratic dictatorship rife with corruption, which is more than eager to attack anything western. What is remarkable in the face of all this chaos, is the power of the West to unite and focus on the task at hand. A new balance of power is thus being created by the war. Not only is Russia being exposed as a deeply flawed nation, filled with shortcomings, but China, too, has lost standing in the world with their support of Russia’s losing cause. Joe Biden, our president, and most of the leaders of the EU and England (former prime minister Boris Johnson) deserve great credit for their commitment to building an alliance. Hungary has remained pro Russian and Turkey has not joined in the sanctions against Putin. The Turks prefer to play both sides. Now the West is close to a substantial victory. Putin will make threats to use his nuclear weapons but we should not be intimidated and stand firm. Russia must leave all of Ukraine. Ukraine remains the unquestionable hero, the catalyst of this important realignment of forces, during which, Volodymyr Zelensky, their president, has kept his focus and determination. Let’s give them the weapons they need and finish the job.
Oscarvaldes.medium.com
Meanwhile, in Syria, the dictator Assad, long reliant on Putin to repress his opposition, must be wondering if he shouldn’t start pivoting to China. Offer them land for a military base, for instance, in exchange for assistance quieting the rebels. ‘And it would be good practice, for when they decide to trample on Taiwan,’ says Assad to himself.
The recent advances by Ukrainian troops and their recapturing of territory has further raised the possibility that they may defeat the Russian army. If so, how will Putin respond? Some speculate that without a face saving outcome, without his having something to show Russians to justify the loss of life and resources, his political standing would be in jeopardy and he will be inclined to use nuclear weapons. I disagree. I believe Putin has intimidated his countrymen so thoroughly that they will accept the losses. And if internal forces unite to remove him from power he will outsmart them and send them to prison with long sentences, like Alexei Navalny, if not underground. He’s determined to die while in power and, barring some unmanageable illness, he’ll live for another 30 years. Sad for Russians but that’s who they’re choosing. There’s another reason Putin won’t go nuclear. China. Xi Jinping. The chairman, who also wants to die in power, doesn’t want to get caught in the crossfire should Putin wish to go nuclear. Xi, who’s closely following the recent developments, would be the first to remind Putin that Ukrainian flesh has become Western flesh. The chairman will tell Putin, ‘because of their heroism in the battlefield, which your troops have not shown, Ukrainians have conquered the hearts and minds of the western world. They are now part of them. So, to put it bluntly, Vladimir, if you choose to use nuclear weapons on Ukrainians because you’re despairing that your soldiers can’t stop running back, and abandoning valuable armament in the process, it will not just be Ukrainian flesh burning with radioactivity, but western flesh. And the west will hit back hard… and they will tell me, Chairman, screw you, you’re an accomplice of Putin, you’ve had a hand in supporting him and his henchmen, so we’re going after you, too. So it won’t be only Russian flesh burning with radioactivity but Chinese flesh also… and how will I be able to explain that to my people? And they’ll lose confidence in me and I won’t be able to rule until I die, like Mao did. I won’t be able to see China become the foremost power in the world, ten times superior to the Americans.’ Putin will hear this, if he hasn’t already, and decide to either militarize his entire nation, announcing that a new Hitler has appeared in Ukraine and Russia’s existence is in danger, so they must all remember their great WWII hero, Stalin, and fight again with the same tenacity they once did, or say to his people that the setback Russia has suffered is temporary and they now must regroup and plan their next assault. Putin is a determined man. He will kill whoever gets in his way. His nation has abundant resources but the West will need to learn to live without them. That is our challenge. Live without them so we can isolate him. And hope that Russians will one day awaken from their long sleep and retire their leader. Give him a pension and, as punishment, force him to watch video replays of all the destruction he’s caused. Roll by him the names of all the people who’ve died because of his actions. Russians and Ukrainians. Watch in the morning and in the afternoon. One hour break for lunch. In the meantime, the recent Ukrainian advances tell us exactly what must be done. Give those brave soldiers every weapon they need and let them drive Russia back to behind its borders. We’re almost there. We can win.
Through intimidation. How do we get it back? Through confrontation. (Is there room for persuasion? Of course. The earlier the better.) So we should be keenly aware of any evidence of intimidation in our interactions with other human beings. Make a note of it. We must be aware also of a tendency in frightened human beings to identify with the aggressor. The frightened person takes their side. We’re all vulnerable to being intimidated but the more aware we are of it, the more likely we are to recognize it. Fear is a powerful force. In America, the second amendment gives citizens the right to bear arms. Will it make a difference if our civil liberties were to be endangered? It will depend on the civic education of the bearer of arms. A person with a proper civic education will clearly understand the importance of respecting other people’s rights even if he/she disagrees with their views. Increasingly, though, in daily discourse, we see evidence that people with strong views on any given subject are intolerant of those who disagree. The opposing parties don’t want to give in, which leads to the shunning of civil dialogue as a means to building bridges between the dissenting parties. We’re doing too little bridge building in America today. Too little of holding conversations with those with dissenting views just to get familiar with the arguments. Even if no agreement is found, bridge building lets us learn about the other side and that is invaluable, for it informs us about their humanity. The learning of freedom starts at home, with parents encouraging their children to speak their minds, to feel at ease in expressing their opinions. ‘What do you think, Nancy?’ ‘And what do you think, Tommy?’ ‘I hear you,’ replies the parent, ‘And I think this and that.’ The foundation of dialogue is laid out at the dinner table, or in the after dinner chat. The beauty of it is that the child internalizes the exchange and begins to ask questions about other things as well. The benefit will extend to the classroom, where the child will ask better questions in class. And also in their interactions with friends. And so the civic spine of a human being is formed. Step by step. If children like that want to later become soldiers when they grow up, they will have a sense that their acquired powers are to be used in defense of freedom, not to suppress it. And so the people of that nation will not be fertile ground to grow a totalitarian regime like in Russia or China today.
This is the time. The time to break the chains that Putin has wrapped around your neck. You are not the nation you could be. You have the capabilities to stand as one of the first nations in the world, but you are not because to do so you need freedom, and freedom is not something Putin is willing to give you. Your leader is determined to enlarge his personal power, not the power of the rest of Russians. To do so he has chosen to invade Ukraine because they did not kneel before him. That is what you are doing, Russia, kneeling before Putin because you do not dare to raise your voice. You have gone so long without hearing your voice that you’ve forgotten what it sounds like. That happens in dictatorships. It is happening in your neighbor China, where Xi Jinping and his gang keep constant surveillance and restrictions on their citizens. They say that it’s in the interest of a greater future, when China will dominate the world. But freedoms restricted lead to impaired development in human beings. Russia, you need to get back your voice. The world needs you. You went for centuries under the foot of Czars, then under Stalin and those who followed. Only for a brief period, under Gorbachev, did you smell freedom, only to have it disappear under Putin. Think of the enormous role you could play in world history if you chose to turn West. You could choose whatever system of government you wanted. A system like the British have, or we here in America, or the French or the Germans or the Finns or the Swedes. But you would be free. Personally, I would be partial to a federal system of government that would make you the United States of Russia. And you would enrich the world with all your talent and resources. You would break out of the cultural isolation that Putin likes to keep you in because it suits his purposes. And by turning West, then China would have to moderate its plans for world domination because they would become impossible to achieve. This is the time to turn West. For your development, for your economic growth and the realization of your potential as a nation. Think for a moment of the cruelty that Putin has inflicted on Ukrainians and Russians. Sending them to their death because he has a dream of a larger Russia. But you are already large enough territorially. What you need is to unleash your talents, break out of you isolation and join the rest of the world fighting for democracy and the affirmation of human beings. Russia, the world needs you. This is the time to rise and retire Putin. Send him to his dacha for a permanent vacation. Russia deserves to be all it can be and the world will be better off for it. Just do it!
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He’s sitting at his desk in his office in Beijing. He’s going through reports of his subordinates’ performance. Some are as loyal as he wants them to be, some not so much. The latter are put on the heap for reassignment, i.e. demotion.
News of Nancy Pelosi’s (Speaker of the US House of Representatives) plane arriving in Taiwan flashes on a large screen on a wall across. He smiles. ‘Beautiful.’ He pauses as he takes in the landing of the plane, the sight of the welcoming committee waiting on the tarmac. ‘The more Americans challenge me on Taiwan, the more I can keep my people furious about their interfering with our sovereignty and the more they will accept the restrictions I impose on their freedoms. Freedom should be reserved for the leadership, the very accomplished and faithful to the ideas of the party. Freedom in the hands of regular people leads to chaos, like in the West, where freedom got Trump to be elected. And where they may elect him again.’ He laughs. ‘But what really gets my people to tolerate the harshest of restrictions on their liberties is the promise that one day soon, we will make our move for world dominance. And we’ll have Americans queuing up to learn Mandarin. Won’t that be a beautiful sight? I can’t wait.’
A voice through a speaker on his desk interrupts.
Speaker phone – Chairman, the cyberattack committee wanted to go ahead with targeting the list of American and English companies they sent you this morning. Have you had a chance to go through it? ‘I have. Leave company D out for now but proceed with the rest. We need their technology.’ Speaker phone – Indeed, Mr Chairman. ‘Thank you.’
He grows silent, a hint of worry on his furrowed brow.
‘That drone attack that killed the Al Qaeda leader in the center of Kabul has got me worried. I don’t think the Americans would ever try that on me. We would fire missiles immediately on them… but so would they on us. In the confusion, would Russians jump in, too?’
He returns to his papers, assessing the loyalty of his subordinates.
He pauses again.
‘Western businesses have been very good for us… and our forcing the transfer of technology has been essential to what we have become in so short a time. But they are growing more distrustful. Which is why we’re trying to extend our influence over other nations… but the idea of freedom keeps coming up. It’s hard to squash it, snuff it out, like we’re doing here in China. Maybe the Chinese are more pliant… more willing to tolerate structure… and surrender their personal dreams in the interest of the nation. That is what we’re banking on to build the new Chinese Empire. The pliant quality of Chinese citizens, willing to work hard for the good of the party and the nation, and willing to surrender their personal ambitions. In the meantime, I get to extend my rule… until I die… like Mao did. Oh, to die in power… what a wonderful idea. The whole nation grieving for me. The thought of it brings tears to my eyes.’
He dabs his moistened eyes.
‘And now this war in Ukraine. When will it end? Putin acts like he’s going to win… but it’s starting to look like he’s not. The West has got bolder… now committing to sending in fighter jets. And the Russian military may want a change in leadership… which may align with us or not. New leadership aligning with the West would be disastrous for us… which is an argument to assist Russia win the war… but if I do… western markets may close off to us. They’ve warned us, Biden has. Anyway, we’ve bought enough Russian oil. Putin should be bolder… send in a team to kidnap Zelensky… take him to Moscow and try him for crimes against humanity. I fear he’s running out of time. He may ask us for more drones, to attack Zelensky in Kyiv, like the Americans did in Kabul… but if one of our drones hit Zelensky… that would be a problem.’
He closes his eyes for a moment.
‘But I don’t trust Putin. Sooner or later, he’ll remind me that he has more nuclear weapons than I have… I know that’s coming. But what I admire in him is how he’s domesticated his people to do as he pleases. I should learn from him. And how he persuaded Donald Trump that he had nothing to do with interfering in America’s elections. That was beautiful to see.’
He returns to his paperwork, sorting out the most loyal from the less loyal.
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He’s pacing in his office in his bunker. He looks a bit tense but controlled, mostly an enjoyable feeling. He’s just finished a half glass of vodka with his filet of salmon, done ‘a la Vladimir’ by his personal chef. He is careful with his drinking. Always has been. He remembers Boris Yeltsin very well, and how drink undid him. On the other hand, if it hadn’t been for Yeltsin, who handpicked him, he wouldn’t be where he is now. He thinks about freedom, how the West carries on and on about it. Absurd.
‘There’s no freedom on earth, not really, it’s all in heaven. Which is why I’m not disturbed by all the casualties I inflict, death merely passage to a great and fair world. I mean… sometimes it does occur to me that heaven is a useful fiction but… what are the chances of that? Minimal. Have to play the odds… and I’m a gambling man.’
He paces some more.
‘The thought of the cartel drug lord in Chihuahua, Mexico, enters his mind. ‘How interesting. The young fellow kills two Jesuit priests and gets the third one to hear his confession. He didn’t kill him, so the likelihood is the priest pardoned him. What was he going to do, staring at the two dead bodies in front of him? “No, you’re a murderer, I’m not going to pardon you.” Of course, he pardoned him. Then said a couple of prayers with him, to console and send him off. I would’ve done exactly the same thing. Save your skin. Oh, the power of the gun.’
He stops and takes another sip of his vodka.
‘I have thought of putting a military base in Mexico. Just to piss off the Americans. I doubt the president of Mexico would let me, but just the talk of it would be enough to rile the Americans, which I love to do. I can even talk of putting bases in other countries, too, say Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba. Just to keep the Americans guessing.’
On the TV monitors affixed to the wall, scenes of the destruction in Ukraine flash by.
‘I am the toast of the world. I am reviled in some sections, sure, but in others I am a hero. And I love the invitation to the upcoming G-20 meeting in November. Joko Widodo, the Indonesian president, personally extended the invitation. Just beautiful. I’d love to attend. By then I will have conquered all of Ukraine, or if not, at least destroyed most of their infrastructure, their schools, universities, hospitals, industries, malls, whatever. Turned them into beggars. Just so they never forget what it means to defy me. The West will soon forget them, anyway, worried as they are of having to pay more for gas and so on. And when I get to the meeting, there will be leaders of nations lining up to shake my hand and bow and have a photo taken with me. For posterity. Beautiful. Narendra Modi will be there, and Xi Jinping, and I’ll try to mediate between them. Wouldn’t that be wonderful, if India would join our bloc? They’re cooperating so far. Then it would be Russia, China and India, against the West. We would be invincible.’
He crosses to a mirror on the wall adjacent and looks at himself. He smiles.
‘I’m strong and fit, good for another 20 years in power.’
He thinks of Trump.
‘I’m sorry to hear about what he went through after his defeat at the polls. I can only imagine what it would be like for me. Of course, I’d never give Russians the chance. But I’m sorry for Donald because I like him. I wish there was some way… well… not now. I certainly hope he runs again. If it hadn’t been for him, I wouldn’t have felt so certain that I could get away with invading Ukraine. I mean… I knew it wasn’t in him to rally the Europeans to oppose me… and he wouldn’t have started something on his own. Instead, he would’ve called me up and said something like, “Vladimir, you’re making me look bad by threatening to go in all the way like that… so in the open… instead, do it with stealth… get one of your people to run for president of Ukraine and get the comedian out. No military intervention, just infiltrate the government… meddle with the electoral process… and I’ll make sure NATO never makes Ukraine a candidate for membership. Be more subtle.” And just that thoughtfulness on his part, would’ve saved lives… Russian and Ukrainians both, and we would all be grateful. Of course, they wouldn’t be free… they would be part of my growing empire… but again, what’s all the fuss about freedom?’
He paces a little more.
‘This freedom thing is a ruse the Americans play on their people. Are people killing each other, free? Of course not. This freedom thing is a mirage. Opium for the masses. Hmm. I know that’s not original but sounds good. Can’t remember who said it. Must be the vodka. Are all those homeless people in America free? Right. All the poor people free, too? Sure. The only really free people in America are the ones with money. The rest don’t even vote or are too tired after work to think about it, which is why Trump stands a chance of getting elected and… if he plays his cards right, even getting the constitution changed so he can run again, for a third term, though he might be too old by then. But good for his successors. Anyway, he’s sure to beat Biden easily. Biden doesn’t have a chance, not with the drubbing I’m going to give Ukrainians and the relentless inflation. Hmm. The supreme court voided Roe vs Wade. The two term limit is next. Beautiful. Count on me, Donald, even if you can’t hear me. And, yes, I’d love to accept an invitation of yours to Mar-A-Lago and play a couple of rounds of golf. And do an appearance with you in your platform, Truth Social, and the world would be a more peaceful place. With fewer dead and ill. And Donald would let the Russian vaccine be used worldwide. Or talk to Xi, so he would use it in China. Not that their vaccine is bad. Just not as effective as mine.’
He opens his arms wide, a smile on his face.
‘Oh power, how grateful I am that I can hold you, how grateful that I will have you until I die.’
He frowns. His thoughts turn to the testimony of Ms Cassidy, a White House aide, on her recollections of what happened while the January 6th rioters were headed to the capitol.
‘That got away from Donald. If we had spent more time together, I would’ve made clear to him that he was in his right, as president, to have a gun on him, just in case, and when he got in the limousine to go to the capitol and lead the charge of the protesters in an unprecedented act of heroism, and the driver refused, he would’ve flashed his gun and made it clear who was boss. I bet the driver would’ve taken him… and the counting of the ballots would’ve been tampered with and Donald’s election would’ve been ratified by the conservatives in the supreme court and the world would’ve been spared the misery of Ukraine. Trump would have, single handedly, changed the course of history. But it got away from him. Not too late, though. There’s still time. Overturning Roe vs Wade is just the start. We have another election coming up. And Russians and Americans will become the best of friends.’
He smiles
‘I love me.’
Oscar Valdes, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts
The news today is not uplifting. Russia continues to gain against Ukraine in the Eastern regions, is now targeting grain terminals in Ukraine’s port of Mykolaiv (WSJ) to damage the country’s food exports, is increasing cyberattacks on the western alliance (WSJ), while Turkey goes on obstructing Finland and Sweden’s push for NATO membership (NYT). Meanwhile, the growing costs of inflation have spread widely and the rise in interest rates is slowing down the economy globally, all of which weakens the collective resolve of western nations to support Ukraine. How long before Ukraine stops getting what it needs and is then trounced by Russia? Not long. Not all countries in the EU have contributed equally to the war effort, Germany and France underperforming significantly, yet public shaming seems to go only so far. Nations are protesting they have limits. If we keep going at this pace, Russia will devour Ukraine. And everyone watching will shake their heads and say, ‘what a shame… but really… there’s only so much we can do. Now we just hope they won’t invade us. So let’s be nice to Putin and the Russians.’ Something like that. Do we want to live that way? Hell, no! If we do so, it amounts to a grand failure of leadership. We started out giving much support to Ukraine but have not gone all the way. Hasn’t Ukraine’s courage earned them the right to get all the arms they need? Do we allow all their suffering and lives lost to be in vain? Judging by the increasing protests of western nations, their economic concerns with the soaring price of energy, there is not much time left to act decisively. So the time to give Ukraine all they need is now. That may not assure a victory but it will say we did all we could. The slowing of the support given to Ukraine is a veiled effort to ask them to give up. But they will not. It is their land and they won’t have it. Which then throws it back in our face. Ukraine will go all the way, help or no help from the West. Are we expecting them to die in the battlefield and then live with the notion that we didn’t do all we could? That we didn’t give them the proper weapons? The idea that our giving Ukraine fighter jets to push back Russia is going to trigger a nuclear war is a farce. Putin may well be infuriated by it but we are as well armed as Russia and China combined. Acting decisively now by giving Ukraine all they need is allowing ourselves the chance of victory. Once victorious, sanctions should be lifted partly or completely, and the world economic crisis will begin to resolve. The sanctions have been only modestly effective and there is no way we can influence China and India to stop buying Russian oil. Why, even western nations are asking for exemptions from the sanctions on one or another commodity. We’re too interdependent to cut things off quickly and expect a powerful result. That will take time to plan. But a military victory today is possible. Which will then permit the lifting of sanctions. For us not to push for a military victory is a failure of courage. It is saying we allowed Putin to frighten us. Today, we stand awash in over caution, while letting Putin throw at Ukrainians everything he has. Let us act now, damn it! We should not back away from this confrontation without the sense that we gave it our best. And our best is to arm Ukraine to the fullest, short of nuclear weapons. Ukrainians are saying to us, here we give our lives, helps us! Who in recent history has said that loudly for all the world to hear? No one. So let us act. Putin should not be allowed to intimidate us. He needs to be confronted now.
Note to Mr Biden. You’re heading out to the Middle East in the days to come. Word is that you’re expected to meet with MBS (Muhammad Bin Salman) who, our intelligence agencies have determined, is responsible for the murder of journalist and Washington Post contributor Jamal Khashoggi in October 2018 after he entered the Saudi Arabian consulate in Ankara, Turkey. He had been publicly critical of the Saudi regime. I understand that Saudi Arabia can play a role in stabilizing the tensions in the region and is willing to ally with us to counter Iran’s threats. As our president you need to look at the big picture. But that does not mean you have to bow to that nation’s leadership. It sends a bad signal.
Oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.
There’s much talk about the possibility of a nuclear war if Putin is pushed too hard in Ukraine. Particularly now that his army has underperformed and the quick victory he imagined, with Ukrainians bowing reverentially to his majesty as he made his triumphant journey to Kyiv, has been shown to be a fantasy. In his despair, Putin has been tempted to unleash nuclear weapons, but he will not because China will have something to say about it. China will do whatever they can to support Putin from the punishing effect of the sanctions the West has imposed. But they know, that should Putin give in to the itch to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, then China itself would be a target of retaliation from the West. The West is clear that China is aiming for world supremacy. The Chinese have stated they are a ‘no limits’ ally to Russia. In the face of a nuclear attack from Russia, the West has no option but to target China also as they do Russia. If not, then a weakened West would be exposed to a predatory China. Putin knows he has been damaged by his invasion of Ukraine which, in turn, has pushed him closer to China and thus more susceptible to their influence. He is also likely facing pressures from within Russia, with influential people expressing their doubts as to the path he’s charted, the pain he’s inflicted and the profound loss of prestige that Russia has incurred. Two and a half months have passed since the start of the war, and every day we hear of more atrocities committed by the Russian army. China has not been critical of their ally. But they will draw a line when it comes to the use of nuclear weapons. Shortly after he became president, Joe Biden made the decision to pull out of Afghanistan. He was widely criticized for it but he was right to do so. He understood that, after 20 years, the war against the Taliban was unwinnable since the enemy had found shelter and support in neighboring Pakistan. Furthermore, he understood he needed to clear the deck because Mr Trump, his predecessor, had dangerously damaged America’s relationship with its allies and become too friendly with Putin. Biden, like no other, saw the problem and its implications. The resolve he showed then led to the resolve he’s shown now. The war is not over but Biden has performed gallantly and deserves the nation’s respect and admiration. The West today is more united than it has been in years. Our sense of purpose sharp. This would have been impossible under Trump. And yet, because of the problems with inflation, mostly arising from Biden’s effort to protect us from the pandemic, an electorate dissatisfied with higher prices may vote for the opposition in the upcoming mid term elections, and so reject his sound proposals to strengthen the country.
There is still time for the Democratic party to make clear to the voters, the magnitude of Mr Biden’s leadership performance.
Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.
C – It’s amazing what you’ve done with your country in such short time. Chi – Thank you. C – You are now a rival to the United States. Chi – And pretty soon we will be the most powerful economy in the entire world. C – Wow. And to think we both started out as communists. I can’t help but wonder why you’ve grown so much and we haven’t. I mean, are you even communists anymore? I know you started as such, but it seems you then took a turn. Chi – We did. We had that whole Mao experience as you know… lots of years of being very regimented… deprived, in fact… very traumatic the whole thing… had to read Mao’s little Red Book, again and again… I could recite it in my sleep… but slowly we came to realize that we needed to produce more and to do that, we needed creative and enterprising people. And we needed markets. C – So you let the creative and enterprising people come out and do their thing? Chi – Yes. We began to allow people to have their own businesses… and when you do that, then people with those abilities get to work. Up till then, the system was burying them… and they weren’t making money and no one else was making money, and we could say we were all equal… but what’s the point of being equally poor? C – I get you. That’s what’s happening in Cuba. We can all say that we’re brothers and sisters and we’re all equal but we’re not. Not really. And those people with ideas for commerce and other things, they’re held back. Chi – Right. Finally, we realized we had to try something different. When we did, we began to see how new hierarchies began to form. Hierarchies of talent and ability, in all fields, hierarchies that have always been there, no point in denying them. They were there during Mao. The Chairman got to have all the girlfriends he wanted. C – Same with our leaders. They eat and dress and live better than the rest of us. Chi – Right. So we said to ourselves, that’s the way the world is. Some people have more than others because nature gave them more. In the jungle, you’ve got the lions and the tigers and the gazelles and the rabbits and the pigs, and the stronger gets to eat the weaker. That’s how nature works. C – But we’re humans… Chi – Sure, but we’re not all created equal. C – Under the law we are. Chi – Right. And that’s about it. Men and women are at their best when they have the chance to exercise their differences. And the better systems let you do that. C – Exercise your difference? Chi – Yes. Of course, you have to show some restraint so the stronger human doesn’t eat the weaker one. C – But isn’t that what Capitalism has been doing? Chi – Unchecked Capitalism, sure. But I’m talking of Regulated Capitalism. Regulated Capitalism gives us a safety net, allowing for workers to have rights, pensions, education, health care, days off and so on. And to do that the system taxes the people who make the money. The more money you make, the more we tax you. Regulated Capitalism – we call it State capitalism – needs to keep improving but we’re moving in the right direction. C – You’re not against billionaires? Chi – Not at all. We love billionaires. But they have to be accountable and pay their taxes. The communist party sends an emissary to be part of their governing board. C – In Cuba we hate billionaires, or pretend to, when in reality we would like to have a chance at it. Chi – Why the hate? C – Our leaders believe a person can only become a billionaire if they corrupt others, so to allow billionaires would mean they’ve allowed corruption. Chi – Corruption is a big issue, everywhere. We have it in China. The Chairman has been working on rooting it out. But some people can make a lot of money without corrupting others. They can make money just with their ideas, their creativity and hard work. C – You really believe that? Chi – I do. Of course, becoming a billionaire doesn’t necessarily mean you’re a fair or good person. They can be assholes, too. You have some and we do, too, but if they create jobs then that’s great. It’s up to government to make sure they pay their fair share. C – There was an American presidential candidate recently who said billionaires shouldn’t exist. Chi – Right. And what happened to him? C – He lost. And there are famous economists who think the same. Chi – I think they’re envious of billionaires. C – Hmm. Interesting. Let’s go back to the issue of equality. Chi – We’re not equal. Some people will always have more than others, be it brains, muscular power, beauty, musical ability, anything. If a system is wise, however, it will allow those with the greater gifts to rise. Then the system will work to make sure the benefits are spread out. But it gets tricky when you start spreading the benefits. You don’t want to give out too much that it dampens the desire to work. Of course, there will be those who look at the billionaire and say, life is not fair, why can’t I do those things the billionaire does? The answer is there is a hierarchy. Good governments ought to make that clear. And remind people that if they keep trying, well, who knows, something might happen and they, too, will become wealthy. C – That’s like promising something that will never happen. Chi – You never know, if you keep trying. Anyway, that’s the trick of governing, always give hope. C – You’ve heard of the expression, ‘pie in the sky?’ Chi – There is hope that is realistic and hope that is false. Autocratic leaders preach false hope. In State Capitalism we give realistic hope, like we’re doing in China. For an instance of false hope, take what’s happening in Venezuela. That regime has persuaded the people that government will lift them to a comfortable and satisfactory life. But it won’t happen unless people work hard. But work hard for the betterment of humanity? No. That’s too abstract. You work hard because you have incentives, because you can make money. The Venezuelan government is not letting people make money, and are scared that if they do, those people will undermine them. So they prefer to keep everyone poor. Except the rulers, of course. They always eat and dress well and get to travel. C – The government can’t create enough jobs but then it doesn’t let those who can create them do so. Chi – And they have the guns to intimidate everyone. Guns to tell everyone that the real meaning of life is to work for the betterment of humanity, without worrying about material rewards. They’re delusional. Man is simply not like that. We are part of the animal kingdom. Not of the celestial one. We’re not angels. We love our money and what it can do for us. C – You don’t have to go to Venezuela for that one. That’s what’s going on in Cuba too. Chi – It’s very sad. And we both know there are lots of very talented Cubans and Venezuelans. C – Our governments are afraid of them, afraid of what they can create.
They pause for a moment.
C – We’re not equal… I get it. Chi – We should treat everyone with respect and encourage them to do their best. Everyone should get that. That’s how equality should be viewed. Equality under the law. Not equality of results or pay or position. Hierarchies are part of life. C – What do you think of the economic embargo the United States has on Cuba? Chi – We know how it started. The Castro brothers nationalized American businesses that were making big money in Cuba. C – Right. Chi – That could’ve been done a lot differently so as not to piss off the Americans. C – True. Chi – Terms to repay could have been set… and the likelihood is that would’ve allowed business between the two nations to continue. C – Maybe. Anyway, it didn’t happen. The Castro brothers couldn’t think that far. Chi – But they sure have got a lot of political capital out of the embargo. C – They have. They keep blaming the embargo for the misery Cubans live in. Chi – Get someone else to blame for your own inadequacies.
They pause.
C – Going back to China, do you think you’ll ever become a democracy? Chi – That’s a good one. C – Or are you getting comfortable with being ruled by the Party and its State Capitalism? Chi – I think that eventually we will become a democracy. Eventually. The more and more successful we become economically, the more we will want to have political power also. C – It is a unique phenomenon in history, what you’ve done. Chi – It is. We’re very proud. Even with the restrictions we live under. We are wary, though, that democracy carries with it some risks, corruption of course, and the possibility that some leaders will emerge that will not care for maintaining the unity of the nation. We see what is happening in the United States with Trump and realize it could happen to us, too. So, yes, one day we will want to become a democracy, but not anytime soon. Before we do that, we will want to become the most powerful nation in the world. We are getting closer to that. C – How much intimidation do you live with in your country? Chi – A good bit. We don’t like it, but the government lets us make money, and lots of it. C – So long as you can make money… Chi – Yes… we love to make money. Wouldn’t you? C – Yes, I would.
They pause again.
C – One thing, though, I admit that if Cubans were allowed to make money things would be different… but the embargo has hurt. Chi – You are right. If it hadn’t been for the American market and all those companies that came to China to make their products, we would not be this far along. So we are thankful to the Americans, although they made a pile of money, too. C – And you stole and copied the technology, and spied to get whatever else… did you not? Chi – We did. But… we worked with what we stole and copied, and then improved it. Let me give you an example. We asked America to let us in on the Space program. They said no. Well, we gathered what we had to gather, and our scientists landed us on the other side of the Moon, the dark side. No one had done that. We did it. So, the fact that we have stolen and copied does not mean we’re not creative and have vast brain power. C – Good point. And as far as Cuba is concerned… even with the embargo… if we created something to trade… we could do business with the rest of the world. Chi – Yes. C – But first we have to figure a way of allowing ourselves more incentives. Chi – True.
They pause.
C – We have talked about the importance of incentives… to make money… but make money for what? Chi – Ah, yes. Good question. I can think of a two part answer to it. But let’s take it up next time we meet. C – Deal.
To be continued. This article was written on 9/14/2020
Oscar Valdes Oscarvaldes.net. medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts
You’re off on an exciting quest – the acquisition of Twitter – to facilitate free speech in our polarized and often hostile world. That you have embarked on this journey speaks of your adventurous spirit. Thank you for that. I have some concerns about the likelihood that you can make progress on the matter. Having the enthusiasm and energy for the task is an essential ingredient but a broad non judgmental mind is equally important. It worries me that you have praised China. You and Tesla have benefitted enormously from their hosting you but, in praising them, you slide over the profound negative impact the Chinese government is having on their people. They are a repressive system that severely restricts free speech and monitors closely the activities of their citizens. To call China anything other than a dictatorship is fooling ourselves. When free speech is restricted as it is in China, the Chinese people are devalued. This is the same people who have been rooting for Putin and his troops as they have invaded Ukraine, bombing and killing thousands of people, while destroying their homes, hospitals, schools and infrastructure. It is from devalued minds that such groundless praise emanates. The China leadership speaks of having ‘no limits’ in their friendship with Putin, i.e. Putin may do whatever and they’re right there behind him. Yet you praised them. You did, even though their own atrocities on the Uyghur people in Xinjiang province were well known. And though you knew of this, your company opened a showroom in the province. I am sure business is very good but I doubt you have the moral clarity to be a sound arbiter in the delicate matter of deciding what is acceptable and what is not as concerns free speech. Extremes in politics, whether on the right or the left, are positions that have run out of arguments and thus choose to embrace violence, with their devastating consequences. These factions don’t want to talk for they fear their views may not hold. The results can be devastating, as in the assault on the Capitol on January the 6th. And in Myanmar, did the military want to talk to the opposition which had won the elections by a landslide before they chose to stage a coup and kill thousands of demonstrators? No. As you start up on the effort to build a platform to facilitate free speech, modifying some algorithms may seem an expedient way to fix the problem, but changing attitudes requires much more than that. It requires reaching out to hardened human beings and patiently searching for what has shaped their hostility to the rest of us. Your new venture may prove profitable, but it is unlikely to make a difference in strongly held positions. For that to happen the human touch is needed. And leaders with the courage to apply it. Good luck
Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.
Oscar Valdes 