Russia – Page 4 – Oscar Valdes

Why Support Ukraine. Inflation or Not

We’re nearing nine months since Putin invaded Ukraine, expecting a quick surrender because his majesty Vladimir was so bold and visionary and oh so talented that the West could not hope to match him. There was no way that the West could ever stand against the enraged Russian bear.
And, of course, Putin had the large store of nuclear weapons, and if anyone dared to stand against him, he’d get them ready to fire and the West would pee in their pants, kneel and plead for forgiveness.
Instead, the big bad bear is retreating.
The West stood up, looked at his majesty Vladimir in the eye and said, ‘excuse me, no, you’re not getting away with it. Ukrainians want to fight and we don’t turn our backs on men and women willing to fight. Got it?’
His majesty Vladimir is still processing that reply.
To his credit, he’s been able to resist. He hasn’t buckled. Not yet.
But it’s been costly for him. He knows he’s crossed the line and will never recover from the atrocities he’s committed.
That’s not to say he won’t be embraced by some, say China’s Xi Jinping. Xi’s atrocities are not yet of the scale of Putin’s, but he will catch up. Give him some time. His murderous repression in Hong Kong and his vast mistreatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang province are just the beginning.
Putin knows he screwed up but still has hope.
His bet is that the West will get tired of the war.
He knows the West has to contend with citizens who are opposed to it and have a right to be heard.
Putin doesn’t have that problem. What he says is law, the majority of Russians having been intimidated into submission long ago. Some don’t even know they were, that’s how sad that picture is.
Putin’s hope is that people in the West will increase their complaints about inflation and shortages and their discomfort, then put pressure on their leaders to tell Ukrainians, ‘We’ve done enough. Take care of yourselves.’
Sadly, it could happen.
Protests in some NATO countries in Eastern Europe have been growing.
Macron, in France, facing the same pressures, has told his people of the need to sacrifice for the sake of liberty.
Every leader in the West should be doing the same thing. Putting the matter up front. Educating the voters. Reminding them of how unique this opportunity is to push back Russia and start a new alignment of powers in the world.
Even if some NATO members choose to back off in their support of Ukraine’s heroic fight, we should not.
Too much is at stake.
The winds of freedom from the valor displayed by Ukraine are blowing into the Middle East. Because of it there is now the chance of regime change in Iran.
And yet, here at home, there is talk in the Republican ranks of cutting back on support for the war, should they win control of congress in next week’s election.
It would be a serious mistake.
It is urgent that our voters be educated on the enormity of what’s in play.
A defeated Russia in Ukraine would have vast repercussions across the area and eventually on China.
Ukraine’s heroism has opened a door we didn’t know existed.
With an abundance of guts and sacrifice, they had the imagination to wish to reinvent themselves.
Stepping up they reached through the darkness and pain of the invasion of their land and grasping the door of freedom threw it open.
And the winds of freedom blew in.
All their pain made sense. All their sacrifices found meaning.
Ukrainians thought they were fighting for their beloved land.
They found, instead, they were fighting for the world.
America, we cannot close that door.

Biden Talks with Kim Jong Un

Early in the morning, on a Tuesday, North Korea time, president Joe Biden puts in a call to the ruler of that country. The call is made through a top secret video link that had been cleared days before by people on both sides. The stated topic is nuclear weapons.

Biden – Good morning to you.
Kim – Good afternoon to you.
Biden – Thank you. Kim… you keep firing the missiles… and I’m worried that you might make a mistake.
Kim – I won’t.
Biden – Mistakes can happen to the best of us. We understand you want to be acknowledged… and believe me, we do. We have no intention of harming you or your country in any manner.
Kim – Then lift the sanctions.
Biden – I’m getting there. Kim, it costs a lot of money and effort to build those weapons… money that can go to more productive uses. Let’s discuss the war in Ukraine for a moment. Your friend Putin has talked about firing his missiles at us… but he won’t. You know why?
Kim – You will fire back.
Biden – Exactly. If a city in the West burns, then Moscow and St Petersburg will burn… but Beijing and Shanghai will burn, too. People in Moscow, with their skin falling off because of radioactivity, will go hunting for the man responsible for such atrocity. ‘Where is Putin?’ the angry people will say. And they will find him. I don’t have to tell you what will happen to him when they do.
Kim – You think the same will happen to me?
Biden – Worse. If you hit us, China won’t risk their country to defend you. They have bigger plans.
Kim – Why would the West hit China if Putin hits you with a missile?
Biden – Because they are Putin’s accomplice, and if we let them stand they will continue his war to dominate the world.
Kim – You are wrong, China wants every nation to be free.
Biden – If you want to believe that, good luck. Let me ask you, do you think your people are free?
Kim – Yes.
Biden – Can they say anything they want?
Kim – They understand they must sacrifice… for our glorious future.
Biden – How long, Kim?
Kim – I don’t know.
Biden – Got you. I’ll get to the point. Our present strategy with you is not working. You keep building more weapons and like I said before, I really think you will make a mistake. So here’s my proposal. We would have to work with the United Nations to have it approved but here is what I have in mind.
Kim – I’m listening.
Biden – We would lift all economic sanctions on you… so you could trade with any nation in the world… so long as you abide by the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO). That way businesses from anywhere could go into your country and employ your people, create goods and services, train your workers, relieve hunger and slowly begin the process of lifting your GDP.
Kim – I will not stop building nuclear weapons.
Biden – We wouldn’t ask you to stop.
Kim – No?
Biden – What we would ask you is not to sell your expertise in nuclear weapons to anyone.
Kim – Hmm. But France does it?
Biden – Yes but they are a mature and responsible nation. Kim, you have to prove yourself first. We can’t have you – in your desperation – selling nuclear expertise to anyone you want.
With this offer, you would have the chance of developing your nation. Technologically, industrially, scientifically. And you and your people will benefit.
Now, we know that you will be tempted to cheat, let companies into your country and then, secretly, try to sell your nuclear expertise to others. But we would have to insist with the companies willing to go into North Korea, that if you violate the agreement, they will have to stop doing business with you immediately.
So you must decide. Again, the United Nations would have to approve this.
I think your people would be very grateful if you agree to this idea.
Kim – I’ll have to think about it.
Biden – Of course. Think of what the West did for China when we went in with all our companies. China, on its own, would not be where they are now without the West. Sadly, they’re now choosing to deny our contributions to their development and think they have all the answers.
Eventually, your political system will have to change to take maximum advantage of what the rest of the world has to offer, but that will take many years, more than your present life expectancy… so you will die while still in power.
Kim – I’ll have to think about it.
Biden – Take your time. One final note. Ukraine will win the war against Russia. The winds of freedom are blowing and they have reached Iran. I predict that the mullahs will fall and a woman will emerge as leader of that country. And they will be pro western.
That will stop Iran’s interference in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon and create conditions for more positive political changes throughout the Middle East.
Kim – I predict the mullahs will repress that protest movement.
Biden – Time will tell. So that’s all I have for you today. Hope you consider the proposal.
Kim – I will.
Biden – Oh, almost forgot. I was thinking of sending you a present…
Kim – What?
Biden – A pair of my favorite aviator glasses.

Kim laughs.

Kim – I won’t be able to use them when I meet with Putin or Xi but send them anyway. I’ll use them when I go fishing.
Biden – Okay. Have a good day.
Kim – Good night.

Zelensky Looks to the Future

He is in his bunker in Kyiv, standing before a large map, going over details of troop movements in the Kherson area, northwest of Crimea.
What can Ukraine become? How much can it influence the present power arrangements in Eurasia?
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, all will be affected by what happens in Ukraine. The question is how much?
He is aware of the enormous responsibility that has come to rest on Ukrainians and him, in particular.
Seven months into Russia’s invasion and there they are pushing Russia back. No one had imagined this outcome was possible. And now the expectations of him and his people are rising.
Putin is on the defensive and discontent in Russia is growing. If only it would lead to public protests. And he imagines Belarussian resistance coming out of the shadows and surging, agitating against their leader Lukashenko, a close Putin ally.
But none of that is likely to happen when he needs it the most.
So it’s up to Ukrainians, with the backing of the West, to keep up the fight. Day and night.
Like his soldiers on the front lines, he’s in it all the way. Victory or death.
No room for escaping to the West should war’s fortunes change.
That is his choice. He will send his wife and family out of the country but he will not leave his land. He will not surrender. Victory or death.
The struggle he chose has transformed him as a man. Pulled out of him all the courage he has. Even courage that he didn’t think he had. Just like with his valiant soldiers.
Still standing before the map on the wall, he leans on it touching it with his hands and forehead.
And he says to himself softly, ‘my dear land… I am yours. I never imagined I’d die for anyone but I’ll die for you.’

He steps back and returns to his seat at his desk. It’s early in the morning and he still hasn’t had breakfast. These days his nights are short. Too much on his mind.

Speaking to himself, ‘I know that we will win… and then rebuilding will start… and that will take as much from me as the war… to make sure we do it well… that there is no corruption… no waste… for the eyes of the world will be upon us. And I’m conscious of my responsibility to help build a model nation… become an inspiration to others… and then a time will come when I will have to step back, let others govern, because we will be a democracy… but that won’t stop my struggle, for all of us have to remain vigilant that the forces of darkness won’t rise again.
The blood we’ve spilt has made us an example for the world… and we will not step back from the responsibility but embrace it with all we have. Oh, dearest land of mine, dearest people of Ukraine… how our struggle ennobles us all.’

The phone rings. It is his secretary. His cabinet has arrived for their daily meeting. It is 5 am.

Oscarvaldes.medium.com

China and Reeducation

They are very clear about it.
‘The Communist Party knows what is good for you. So you have to do as we say.
If you don’t, then there will be consequences.’
One such consequence is being reeducated. You are taught the right way to think.
‘Party people have tried very hard to do the thinking for you, so you should be grateful to be the recipient of such wisdom.’
Xi Jinping has even put his ‘elevated thoughts’ into a booklet, ‘Xi Jinping Thought’, just like Mao Ze Dong did before him with the little Red Book.
Is there a cost to trying to do your own thinking?
Just ask the Hong Kong dissenters who are now in prison or exile, after the celestial powers of Xi Jinping came down hard and crushed them in 2019.
China is asking the world to respect their way of doing things, because that is best for their people. Never mind asking the Uyghurs in Xinjiang province how they feel about it. They, too, like Hong Kongers, have felt the mighty Chinese fist.
China is presently holding their 20th National Congress, where Xi Jinping is expected to be reelected to a third 5 year term as president. Speculation has it that he’ll ask for a fourth term at the next congress in 2027. And on and on.
China has studied carefully the downfall of the Soviet Union, to ensure they don’t make the same ‘mistakes.’ Mistakes being anything that erodes the party’s integrity and clout.
As far as they’re concerned, Gorbachev was an idiot and weakling and his policies of Perestroika (restructuring) and Glasnost (opening) exactly what to avoid to prevent the erosion of their power.
But Gorbachev was no idiot. Instead he opened the way to free many countries that had languished under the tight controls of the Soviets. Sadly, the reforms he made possible didn’t last in Russia itself. He transferred power to Boris Yeltsin in 1991 and then Yeltsin chose Putin as premier in 1999. That was the big mistake.
Had Yeltsin been a better judge of character, Russia would not have been saddled with the profound limitations of Putin.
With the enormity of the atrocities committed by him, the likelihood is that the post Putin era will be one of greater openness. The very opposite of what China would like.
Which may create tensions between them. Let’s hope so.
People in power in China have persuaded their citizenry that deferring to a one party system is the answer. They have been told to sacrifice their freedom to accomplish their goals of world domination. The Chinese population is under close surveillance and lacks freedom of speech.
They have made enormous material progress in the last 40 years, in large part due to their opening to the West which brought in ideas and technological knowhow.
That in turn stimulated China’s own creativity.
But the mistake they make is to think that freedom can be sacrificed.
Even in open and democratic societies, not all people choose freedom. But those who do are the ones who keep the forward thrust of nations alive.
Human beings can sacrifice freedom temporarily to attain certain goals, but it should not be for long. Being distant form it ends up diminishing us.
China is going through a prosperous period at present. But it won’t last.
As the pace of prosperity begins to diminish, the communist party and its army of non thinkers will rage against its perceived enemies which will lead to disastrous actions.
Cruelty of the same dimension as what we’ve seen in Ukraine, lies in the future of China.
We’ve seen it with Uyghurs and Hong Kongers. They’ll try to do it also with Taiwan.
We, meanwhile, should do all we can to increase our strengths – industrial, military and civic – so we can go to the assistance of those in need like we do today in Ukraine.
The reelection of Xi Jinping for a third term is not a good sign.
China’s reluctance to be open has already had enormous consequences. After the outbreak of CoVid 19 in Wuhan, they refused to cooperate with the World Health Organization to investigate the source of the spread.
When Australia asked for an investigation of such action, China responded with trade restrictions on that nation.
That’s who they are. Creative in some ways, backwards in some others. Always controlling.
We should not let down our guard and must keep strengthening our country and the West.
Otherwise, China will be reeducating us into thinking like them.

We earn our freedom every day.

Oscarvaldes.medium.com

Putin Makes Offer to Zelensky

It’s early morning and they speak thru a top secret video link. They both have aides with them but we only see the two on the respective screens.

Putin – Good morning.
Zelensky – How many missiles have you sent us today?
Putin – I’ll get to the point.
Zelensky – Speak.
Putin – I can offer you a deal.

Zelensky shakes his head slightly, like we’ve been through this before.

Putin – I want to end the war.
Zelensky – Then pull back to the borders we had before 2014.
Putin – Listen to me… I’m willing to do that in the East… Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya, Kherson… all goes back to you…

Zelensky leans forward, interested.

Putin – … but I keep Crimea.
Zelensky – No! We’re getting back all our territory. We won’t accept anything else.

Putin lowers his eyes for a moment.

Putin – We’re losing people every day… you are, and I am, too… we can stop this.
Zelensky – Since when has that been important to you? You started it. No one was threatening you…
Putin – What happened, happened. You need to think more broadly. How long you think the West will support you? It’s costing them a lot of money to keep you well armed.
People are unhappy with all the restrictions… the shortages… inflation… and there will likely be a world recession. In America, the democrats may lose the mid term elections. Some Republicans are talking of cutting back on support for Ukraine if they gain control of both houses. But if we make a deal, the West will be grateful and relieved… and you’d be helping democrats win the mid terms. Biden will be especially grateful… and that will open the door to investments in Ukraine… to rebuild…
Zelensky – What you’ve destroyed.
Putin – We need to look forward. I am what I am and did what I did, but you and me, we can stop the losses. Do you want a war that will last forever?

Zelensky rubs his face.

Putin – I will not surrender Crimea and I can keep the war going on and on and on.
Think of the lives we can save.

Putin joins his hands in front of him as he looks directly at Zelensky.

Putin – I need a deal… that’s why I’ve come to you. I have no illusions that Europe will return to buying oil from me… but some of the sanctions will be lifted and that would be good for me and my people.
Zelensky – You must be getting pressure from some groups in Russia…
Putin – Could be… but I’ve dealt with it before.
Think of it this way… if we make a deal right now… both Ukrainian and Russian lives will be spared. If we make a deal right now… we can order that all shooting stop today… this moment… and we hold our gains until we sign the papers. Winter is almost here.
Zelensky – I need to think it over and discuss it with my people.
Putin – Your time thinking and discussing is measured in lives… for I will keep shooting missiles into your land.
Zelensky – And we will keep firing back.
Putin – It’s up to you and me.
Zelensky – Why do you want to keep Crimea and not the East?
Putin – I love the sea… Crimea is surrounded by water… and Russians like to go there on vacation.

Pause

Putin – Look, I can’t walk away with nothing. Surrendering the East is already a defeat. But I will not surrender Crimea, even if it means keeping the war going on and on and on.
The world is ready to invest in Ukraine… so, essentially, you have won. I accept that.
But I keep Crimea.
Zelensky – Have you talked about this with anyone else?
Putin – No one.
Zelensky – When did you first think about it?
Putin – It’s been on my mind for a couple of weeks. We can change the mood of the world… you and me… if we compromise. It’s up to us. Volodymyr… think about it…you will go on to be an admired leader for the rest of your life. I won’t. I will have to live with the consequences of my mistakes… and do everything I can to stay in power. Do we have a deal?

Oscarvaldes.medium.com

A Chinese and an American Talk Politics

The Chinese, Haitao, is a physicist, the American, Bill, a mathematician. They know each other from graduate school in the US. Haitao returned to Shanghai and is employed in cloud computing by a state owned enterprise, while Bill presently works in the Netherlands in a microchip manufacturing company. They ran into each other at a conference in London.
They sit at a table in a street side café.

Bill – The 20th Communist Party Congress has just started. You think Xi will be reelected for a third term?
Haitao – No doubt. He has done a great job cleaning out corruption and the people admire him.
My worry is that he is too autocratic.
Bill – He will go for a 4th term?
Haitao (laughs) – Probably. And a fifth. Will die in office, like his idol Mao.
Bill – You think China will keep growing the way it has?
Haitao – Yes. Maybe slow down a little but not much. One of the things we have found is a sense of purpose. You don’t have that.
Bill – You mean a sense of purpose as a nation?
Haitao – Exactly.
Bill – And what would that be?
Haitao – To become the dominant nation in the world.
Bill – Dominant?
Haitao – Yes. We want to be number one. And we’re willing to sacrifice our personal freedom.
I know freedom is very important to you, but most Chinese are willing to sacrifice it for a higher cause. We have never been number one. You have been number one for a long time. Now you take it for granted.
Bill – Our system allows for very diverse creativity, in many fields, and the limited governmental interference facilitates development. You’ve had enormous growth with companies like Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, but now the government has chosen to direct their future growth. Don’t you think that will end up having a negative impact on inventiveness?
Haitao – It could. The government is experimenting, so we have to wait and see. Xi has been very clear about the importance of shared prosperity. In America, you talk about that but are very slow to do it. You have Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security but it’s not enough. There’s a lot of poverty in America. We watch you very closely so we can learn from you. Learn what not to do.
Bill – The distribution of riches, how to do it well without diminishing the creative drive, has been a problem for us. We keep going back and forth on that but there is steady progress in strengthening the safety net.
Haitao – Europeans are ahead of you.
Bill – But there is a stronger enterprising drive in America.
Haitao – To what purpose?
Bill – To become all we can be… maximizing the person’s possibilities.
Haitao – See, that’s the difference between you and us. In China, we think more of the collective. You think more of the individual.
And because of that difference, we now have a national purpose, which you do not.
Bill – I disagree. We want to protect the individual’s liberty, their right to create and acquire wealth… and many wealthy people become philanthropists… and give their money to various causes…
Haitao – That is weak, compared to having a national purpose. The benefit of having such purpose is that it commits the citizens to the task and expects from them that they sacrifice for it. No other nation has progressed so fast in 40 years since Deng Xiaoping began China’s opening to the world. We have taken advantage of everything possible… borrowed and stolen, too… but we have created also… and we have now great confidence in our capacities… and faith that we will become the number one nation in the world very soon.
Bill – How soon?
Haitao – At our current pace, I’d say, in 15 years. Max.
Bill – That’s a short time.
Haitao – We are not afraid of you, anymore. We study you closely, and we see how you can’t agree on things. Your lack of national discipline is frightening. We now have a bigger navy than you do. We don’t want to be like you, anymore. We did before, but not now. We don’t have mass shootings in our country. We don’t have an immigration problem. We don’t have the homelessness that makes your cities ugly. We don’t have racial issues, or just a little bit, but not like you.
In our country, politics is orderly, in your country it’s a circus and a waste and money and energy and talent. It is pitiful to watch it.
Bill – And Taiwan?
Haitao – It’s ours. We will not make the mistake that Putin made in Ukraine. But Russia is a second rate power. When the leadership decides it’s time to take Taiwan, we’ll encircle it and take it. It will be quick. For you to intervene will be too costly, so you’ll stay away and curse your weakness.
Bill – You’re pretty cocky about your power?
Haitao – We will always be friends, Bill, but as a nation, the time for China to replace you as number one is fast approaching. You’ll just have to live with it.
Bill – I think you’re underestimating our strengths…
Haitao – America has grown too fat and overconfident.
Bill – We could surprise you… we’re known for coming together when we have to.
Haitao – There’s always that possibility… but you’re too divided… too angry at each other… too unwilling to compromise… and have shown very poor judgment in whom you elect as President. I’m not talking about Biden, he’s done a good job. But I couldn’t believe your country elected Donald Trump, then failed to impeach him, then let him incite an assault on Capitol Hill, and may reelect him again… or let Republicans win both houses in the midterms.
Something is deeply wrong with your country, and I don’t think you can fix it in time to stop our rise to world dominance. Now is our turn. Your time is past.

Oscarvaldes.medium.com

Putin, Stop Now!

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Retreat! Go home! You’ve lost this war.
Stop murdering people, Ukrainians and your own.
The West will not stop supporting Ukrainians and we will not surrender to you or anyone.
We are a free people.
Russians are not.
You have failed. But you don’t have the decency to own up to it, and instead want to sacrifice more of your own brothers and sisters, while firing more missiles to Ukraine to destroy all you can and massacre as many as possible.
Pause when you’re looking at yourself in the mirror. Look carefully. Yours is the face of inhumanity and cruelty.
There’s no way back for you. If you dreamt of being revered as a great leader, you failed.
And you failed because you thought you could own other human beings, strip them of free speech and command them to obey you instead.
Those who resisted, you poisoned, incarcerated or killed.
That is you who are.
You have built nothing. You think your nuclear weapons will save you?
They will not.
Because if we give in to you now, we will have to give in tomorrow.
If you fire your nuclear weapons we will fire back.
If New York burns, then Moscow will burn.
And the Chinese know that if that happens, then Shanghai and Beijing will burn too, for the West cannot allow China to be left intact, for they are your accomplices and they will take advantage to dominate everyone they can. That is who the Chinese are at this stage of their development.
Look at them, just starting a big convention to reelect their dictator, Xi Jinping, to another 4 years. They’re very proud of their accomplishments.
So they won’t let you ruin things for them.
If they see you eager to fire on the West, then they’ll turn their nuclear weapons and point them at you, to keep you from destroying what they’ve worked hard to build.
They will not let you drive them to destruction.
You could have done something very different with Russia, a nation with so much talent and so many natural resources. But your ego needed to be fed and you convinced Russians that was a national priority.
It has taken them a while to realize that such deal was costly and at their expense.
But there’s still time for you to stop committing atrocities.
I’m sure Russians will let you enjoy retirement in peace. But they must act now.
It could be anyone stepping up and saying, ‘enough!’
It could be a member of your personal guard, stepping up and saying, ‘You have caused so much destruction, this can’t go on.’
Anyone, please, act now. Russians, you started it. Now stop it.
We earn our freedom every day.

oscarvaldes.medium.com

Biden, Arabs and City Councils

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Saudi Arabia chose to reduce their oil production by 2 million barrels per day at a time when energy prices are fueling worldwide inflation. The move leads to higher prices for oil and Russia will be a big beneficiary.
The action has stirred talk in Congress of retaliation against Saudi Arabia, such as stopping arms sales and removing weapons already in the country.
I think our response is myopic and wrong.
We have been buying less oil from the Saudis as we increased our gas production and now give greater support to renewables.
The Saudis, in turn, have been moving closer to Russia and China.
Like Turkey, they play both sides. India does it, too, but we’re not thinking of retaliating against them.
I think we should take the long view on the Saudis’ behavior.
They are a repressive regime that shares much with Russia and China yet wants to stay open to the West. Let’s not shut the doors. Changes are happening in Saudi Arabia which are, gradually, likely to move the country even closer to the West.
Iran is the problem in the area. Presently there is much unrest and a push to take the clerics out of government. When that happens, there will be a significant realignment of forces in the region.
An American presence that is open and forgiving will be in a better position to influence events.
Not rejoining the Iran Nuclear deal will be a positive development.
I understand Biden’s worry that the effects of the reduction in oil production by the Saudis may have an impact in the upcoming mid term elections by further increasing inflation. But this may be underestimating the American electorate.
The war in Ukraine and the Russian retreat are huge accomplishments for the West and Biden deserves a great deal of credit for it. It is there in plain view.
Are democrats selling this success to undecided voters and enlightened Republicans?
Freedom demands sacrifices and Biden may need to remind voters of it.
Inflation will top off in the near future and ending the war will play a big role.
But to get there we must keep our support for Ukraine going strong.
While a large number of Republicans remain loyal to former president Trump, even though he attempted to deny Biden the presidency and reinstate himself for another term, enough Republicans realize the damage done to the country and that their party needs to repair itself by confronting its antidemocratic side.
Under Trump, Ukraine would have been in Putin’s hands long ago, for Trump would not have objected to the invasion.

As to City Councils.
On Monday, in Los Angeles, a tape recording emerged of a private meeting held a year ago involving three city council members and a labor union chief. During the meeting, disparaging racial remarks were made.
There has been an outcry and demands that the council members step down. The union chief has already done so.
Yesterday, President Biden added his voice to the demands for council members’ resignation.
I think this response is too meddlesome.
Race is a complicated issue. The world is going through a transition dealing with it. Europe is roiled by immigration and race is a big factor.
To expect purity from our elected officials or from any of us is not rational.
People deserve chances to rectify their behaviors.
Additionally, this is a matter for Angelenos to sort out.
Mr Biden’s focus should stay on the big picture.

Oscarvaldes.medium.com

Putin and Xi Talk Nuclear

The two men talk via video.

Putin – Ukrainians keep pushing us back.
Xi – I saw the video of the bombing of your bridge to Crimea.
Putin – Somehow, they got through and planted the bombs.
Xi – They’re getting better and better.
Putin – I will not surrender the East.
Xi – They may take it from you, drive you back to your borders.
I worry that the new soldiers you’ve called up may not be ready for the Ukrainians.
It could lead to a massacre of Russians.
Putin – Then I’ll use nuclear weapons.

Xi pauses, shifts his weight in his seat, looking uncomfortable.

Xi – Like I’ve told you before… it’s not a good idea. The West will respond.
Putin – I have top notch nuclear weapons.
Xi -That’s what you were saying about your army.
Putin (irritated) – You don’t believe me?
Xi – I want to… but I can’t deny the evidence… your army hasn’t delivered.
Putin – My nuclear weapons have been developed by the very best of my people.
Xi – Whether your weapons are good or bad, if you fire them, the West will shoot back… and the losses will be unbelievable.

Xi leans forward, looking Putin directly.

Xi – All because you’ve had this dream of creating a new Russia to surpass what the Soviet Union was.
But that is over, Vladimir. That is not going to happen. You must accept that.

Putting grimaces, displeased.

Xi – If your system were that effective, Russia would be much better off than it is now.

Putin looks off, his discomfort mounting.

Xi – With your human capital and natural resources,
Russia should up there with the top economies, say, rivalling Japan, but it is not. So what’s the point of extending a system that is not that effective?
Putin (firmly) – I will not give up on my dream.
Xi – I won’t pay for your dream.
Putin – I’m not asking you to.
Xi – Do you really think that if you use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the West will say, ‘Okay, we’ll just keep using conventional weapons while you fry us with nuclear ones.’
The way you’re going, desperate as you are, you may decide to hit Kyiv with a nuclear bomb. What do you think the response of the West will be? ‘Oh, he’s done it, he’s serious, let’s leave Ukraine and hope he doesn’t do it again!’
No. They are committed. They will hit your troops with nuclear weapons too and that will be the beginning of the end. The world paying for the price of your madness.

Putin winces. He’s never heard Xi say that to him.

Xi – You may decide you can get away with dropping a bomb on Warsaw or Berlin, maybe even Washington D.C. or New York.
But do you think that, should that happen, the West will spare China?
They will not.
Putin – Why not?
Xi – Because if the West is weakened, they will rightfully conclude that we’ll take advantage of it… grab Taiwan and ask Japan to submit.
Putin – You would do that?
Xi – If the West is weakened, if New York or Washington D.C. are burning, why not?
But they won’t let it happen.
If you decide to shoot at the West, they will respond and shoot at both you and us. I have no doubt.
Vladimir… we’ve worked very hard to get us to where we are… and we don’t want to see Shanghai or Beijing burning because of your madness.
Putin – My madness?
Xi – Yes.
That’s exactly what we’re all seeing. You hitting civilian targets indiscriminately…
Putin – They are killing my people.

Xi pauses, looks down for a moment, frustrated.

Xi (softly) – We’re all paying for it.
Putin (irritated) – How are you paying for it?
Xi – The world economy has weakened. There’s less demand for our products… inflation is growing globally… and then there’s the daily horror of people being killed… mass graves being found where your troops have been… I have done enough repression of my own… but this is too much.

Xi rubs his face, clearly uncomfortable.

Xi – Vladimir… if you’re thinking of going nuclear, then it’s time for you to go.
Putin – Go?

Putin seems confused. He shakes his head slowly.

Putin – I won’t.
Xi – Concede you have lost. Pull back from Ukraine entirely, even Crimea and the Donbas, everything… go back to your normal boundaries. No need for negotiations. No one will threaten your borders.
The West will go into Ukraine and rebuild it. I don’t think they’ll hold back the funds you have in the West. They will give you that back, so you can help your people.
Your test will be to regain Russians’ trust. It won’t be easy. You might face new challenges at home, but you will likely handle that.
Putin – You think it’s over for me?
Xi – Yes. You’ve chased out more than 250 thousand Russians after you announced a call to conscript 300 thousand reservists. It is time to pull back. Your people are getting tired of you… the world is too.
Putin – And you, you’re tired of me, too?
Xi – I will help you as best I can. Learn from this and rebuild Russia. You will never regain the status you had… but you could still be a player.
Putin (shaking his head) – No.
Xi – Don’t burden the world anymore. It’s time to go home.
Putin (feeling wounded) – You’re turning against me… I thought we would be friends forever… that I could always count on you…
Xi – You’re driving us to Hell.
But you can still retrench… and stay in power a while longer.

Putin lowers his head, disconsolate, wounded. After a moment, they hang up.

That same day, after an emergency meeting with the standing committee of the Politburo – a select group of seven leaders – Xi calls up Joe Biden in Washington for a top secret talk. He tells Biden how important it is to keep up the pressure on Putin. He doesn’t think Putin is mad and he would do his best to monitor the situation closely. But if things changed and Putin got close to using nuclear weapons in Ukraine or elsewhere, China would switch sides so that between the West and them, they would pressure Russia to stand down, retreat to behind their borders and so end the war.

Oscarvaldes.medium.com

The World is Changing Fast

The Russian Army is retreating – unthinkable a few weeks ago – and Saudi Arabia just said to Biden, ‘take a hike, we’ll do what we have to do to keep our coffers filled, and if we help Putin get wealthier, you’ll just have to live with it.’ And they added, ‘we know how important affordable gas prices are to you, with the mid term elections coming up and inflation running high, but business is business, and if Republicans take over congress, well, too bad. You should have bowed to us last time you visited, instead of just giving us the fist bump.’
Oh, Saudi Arabians and gulf states, you’re one of a kind.
If it weren’t for us the mullahs in Iran would long ago have swallowed you up, and you’d be kneeling before the ayatollahs, that blessed group of folks that the heavens sent us.
But all is not well there now either. Iranian women, who have long put up with the absurdity of having to live with the head scarves, have been taking to the streets in blatant defiance.
Something about freedom spurs them on. They have only one life to live so why defer to the ruling clerics?
My hope is that the movement they’ve started will keep growing until it overthrows the theocracy. What a wonderful message would they be sending to the world. ‘Rise, sisters, rise! If men don’t give a damn about our unfreedom, then we’ll fight the fight ourselves.’
The heroic battle for freedom in Ukraine deserves much credit for the ongoing changes.
They are inspiring people all over the world, telling us, ‘do not be intimidated, speak out, do not let others cow you into submission.’
Putin’s barbaric invasion has awakened the West. And the West is discovering powers it didn’t know it had. They’re discovering that they can cooperate, join forces, put up with hardships and learn from what mistakes they’ve made.
Neither Putin nor China thought the West could learn how to do so.
Of course, they had been encouraged to think that way by Donald Trump, who somehow got it into his head that America could become an island and live happily ever after.
Now a new balance of power is being forged.
The West and its allies are finding that they will be able to face down China and slowly begin to diminish whatever reliance they now have on them.
An official in Singapore said sometime ago, ‘we don’t want to have to choose between one side and the other.’ But they may have to.
The stronger the West, the more they will be an inspiration for the Chinese people now living under the oppressive rule of the communist party, with their insistence on suppression of free speech and constant surveillance. The communist party just can’t trust their own.
The Chinese are looking at the world and seeing the debacle in Russia. They ask themselves, ‘How come, when Putin calls for people to be enlisted, so many of them run for the border to escape being sent to fight in Ukraine? Isn’t there glory in fighting for your country?’
Not if you’ve not been allowed to have your own voice, like Putin has done in Russia and Xi Jinping is doing in China.
The powerful engines of the internet have helped spread the notion of freedom. Men and women all over the world want to hear their thoughts, want to hear the sound of what they think and share it with others. And they don’t want to live feeling intimidated by their leaders.
Instead, leaders of nations should be agents of change, people with the gift to free their brothers and sisters.
So fight on, brave Iranian women, fight on brave dissident Russians and dissident Chinese. Your time is now. No one should restrict your freedom.

Oscarvaldes.medium.com