ukraine – Page 7 – Oscar Valdes

Taiwan and China. Over Beer

They are drinking beer at a bar in Shanghai.
Feng is a businesswoman, 35, who’s started a clothing import company. Huan is a member of the communist party, 32, who went to her shop to ask her to join the party.
They’re sitting at a table in a corner of the crowded room.
It’s just past 8 pm.
The war in Ukraine continues and recently China has flown jets near Taiwan in a show of force.

Feng – That was impressive… all those fighter planes flying near the island.
Huan – We need to show them that they will have to submit to us. That’s what the Chinese people want.
Feng – I don’t.
Huan (surprised) – Why not?
Feng – Have you been to the island?
Huan – Not yet.
Feng – I feel different when I go there… no cameras following me and I can say what I want.
Huan (smiling) – But the people are not happy.
Feng (shaking her head) – People seemed happy to me, and the few people I talked to were content with their government. They didn’t want to join the mainland.
Huan – It’s the Taiwanese government’s propaganda distorting their views. Look, historically they belong to us. And the People’s Republic of China will take back the island, that’s all there is to it. We just have to wait for the right moment.
Feng – People in the mainland would like the freedoms of the Taiwanese.
Huan (mildly annoyed) – You do not know this. The party has conducted extensive surveys and almost 100% of the people agree with the party’s view.
Feng – Shouldn’t that worry you? Almost 100% agreeing? I would think people are afraid to tell you the truth.
Huan – The surveys have been done many times. We are sure.
Feng – My sense is that Taiwan should be left untouched, precisely because it has freedoms we don’t have here in the mainland, so we can compare and see what system works better.
Huan – We already know that. It is our system that has brought prosperity to the mainland. America is declining fast, and so is the West… and they will fail.
Feng – They have problems, agreed, but if they are declining so much, how come we keep wanting them to come here to start businesses? How come we keep copying their technologies? How come we want to import more and more of their sophisticated expertise? How come we keep cyberattacking them to get even more information?
Look, I’m doing it myself, my business is about importing women’s dresses from France, Italy and Spain so I can resell here, and I’m starting to do very well, which is why you came to visit me.
Huan – We have made a great leap forward, like comrade Mao said, and to do that we’ve had to cut corners, but the world’s businesses wouldn’t be so eager to come here if they didn’t think our work force was excellent.
Feng – I agree with you on that, and we are a creative people, but the West is too, and to think they are in decline is very self serving and deceptive. Instead, I think they’re going through a transition, like they have before, many times, and they will learn from it and emerge better.
The thing that worries me about a system like ours, is that we’re too rigid. We have to wait for the communist party to tell us how to do things. In democracies the discussion is free. Flawed and painful but free. We’re afraid of that here. Which is why we’re afraid of Taiwan and want to take it back so we can squash it, like we did with Hong Kong.

Huan smiles.

Feng – I think the party is afraid of letting Taiwan grow because people in the mainland would want to become more Taiwanese.

Huan laughs.

Huan – I don’t think you would be a good party member. Not right now. Maybe with time.
I will have to work on you.
Feng (smiles) – Meanwhile, I hope to grow the business and make more money. You are, of course, always welcome to come by.
Huan – With pleasure. Maybe the party will want me to audit your books.
Feng – You are welcome.

They drink from their beers.

Huan – Are you married?
Feng – No.
Huan – Never been married?
Feng – No.
Huan – I haven’t either… but I’d like to. No children?
Feng – Not yet.
Huan – But you’d like to?
Feng – Yes.
Huan – You are very attractive. I’d like to invite you out.
Feng – To work on me?

Huan laughs.

Huan – Maybe you can work on me.

They raise and touch their glasses of beer.

Feng – It’s possible.
Huan – We can always talk politics… but we don’t have to.
Feng – Will the party let you?
Huan – Date you? I think so… but I can always say, ‘I’m working on you.’

They smile at each other.

Feng – What do you think about the war in Ukraine?
Huan – Putin made a mistake.
Feng – Are you saying that because you want to go out with me or because you believe it?
Huan – No, I believe it. And he hasn’t been able to acknowledge it… instead keeps killing people.
Feng – That’s not the party line.
Huan – I know. I don’t agree with everything.
Feng – You should know… I have a mind of my own… If you’re willing to accept that, then I’ll go out with you.
Huan – Understood.
Feng – And I can always choose not to.

He nods. They touch again their beer glasses, drink once last time, get up and leave.

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Putin and the Mirror of China

The war with Ukraine has not turned out the way Putin wanted.
And it has exposed how inadequate his system of government is.
The quick victory he envisioned, ‘everybody lie down because here comes the mighty Vladimir’, didn’t happen.
The West has united against him and seems willing to endure more pain from the energy shortages that are expected in the months ahead.
Russians in their homeland can’t even speak of the war going on in Ukraine – they must call it a ‘special military operation’ – or they will be thrown in jail.
In spite of the sanctions imposed, Putin has managed to sell his oil and realize a large profit, but there are things that are not lost on the discerning Russian.
Putin’s system is a failure. And to see that, they need only hold up the mirror of China.
Putin has been in office since 1999, and during that same period, China’s economic development has vastly outpaced Russia’s.
China opened up to the West and its investors and became the second largest economy in the world. Meanwhile Russia is not even in the top 10, behind Brazil and Canada.
What happened?
Putin happened. His autocratic style reserved for himself and his choice of oligarchs the right to benefit from their nation’s vast riches in commodities. And they have done so, at a price.
The price is wasted opportunity and diminished national development.
In the meantime, China, with all its problems, rose to become the second largest economy in the world. They came up with a system that let them take advantage of what the West had to offer and made the most of it.
China faces other difficulties, but their citizens were given enough economic freedoms to become inventive and in doing so have realized much of their economic potential with more in store.
Russians under Putin have not been able to do so. Yet they could have, for they are a talented people.
So Russians now have the mirror of China to stare at and wonder what they should do next.
Putin has not elevated them but degraded them instead. Russians need to acknowledge that. Their economic and cultural development has been stunted by a leader who, feeling diminished by the greater progress of many other countries, came up with the absurd plan to bolster Russia’s position by appropriating Ukraine, no matter how many people, men, women and children he had to kill in the process.
His action was born out of envy and the realization that he had failed as a leader.
He thought the West would shake in fear at his daring but he got it wrong. And now, trapped by his stupidity, he thinks only of how to kill even more Ukrainians as a way out.
But the West will hold.
It will because it’s the right thing to do, and because doing so inspires other nations now under Putin’s influence, to fight for their freedom and contribute to a better world. Countries like Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, who may now feel invigorated to strike out on their own.
The time is now to join the Free World.

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Devaluing Another Human Being

How does it start?
We think ourselves as better than them.
And we may be better. We may be smarter, have a better education, a better job, be more capable, have more money, better prospects, be better looking, be stronger, etc.
But the moment we say, ‘take notice, I’m all these things and you are not,’ we begin to devalue the other. Devalue as in ‘they don’t have what I have, they will never have what I have and should be content with their lot.’
To start down that road is dangerous. Soon we will be making judgments based on those beliefs.
Mistreatment will follow.
Resentment will be elicited.
We can be better than another human being simply because we have realized our potentials in ways they have not, for whatever reason.
But to devalue a human being is to reduce them in such way that we think that even if they had got the opportunities we were given, they would not have been able to do what we did. The devalued would have come up short every time.
Devaluing others narrows our world.
It limits our ability to appreciate differences and leads to the shortening of our horizons.
One way to counter the possibility of devaluing others is to practice kindness.
Indiscriminate kindness. All the while exercising the limits we consider appropriate.
One way to affirm that we value others is to speak up against injustice of any kind.
Even if it may cause us discomfort.
Doing so helps us discover our voice if didn’t know we had one or enrich it if we did.
Having a voice is a powerful asset. It leads to our developing the sense that we can think, which put us in intimate contact with our uniqueness.
Tyrants everywhere are counting on our devaluing others, not properly valuing ourselves and losing our voice. So they, in turn, can do the thinking for us.
Mobs do that. Political mobs. Religious mobs.
Today we have lots of mobs here in America, each asking us to join their way of thinking.
Strength in numbers, they claim. We have done the thinking for you. Join us. We have done the work for you.
Our capacity to reflect, to weigh the pros and cons and make a choice is our most important possession, more important than material wealth.
In Russia, today, Putin claims to be speaking for 125 million people.
And he believes it’s okay to send a missile into a mall and a train station and kill 23 people, in addition to the thousands he’s already murdered, because no voices will speak against it.
One hundred and twenty five million people surrendered their voices to mob thinking.
How did he do it?
Slowly. Convincing others he knew better. ‘Leave it to me,’ he said. ‘I’ll think for you.’
How did he do it?
Saying it’s okay to devalue others, ‘those Ukrainians are not made of the same stuff we Russians are made of, so it’s okay to kill them.’
And Russians agreed to it.
Only Putin will one day tell us what made him into the man willing to force such brutality.
In the meantime, we have to learn to look hard into the lives of those who want to lead us to make sure they have kindness in them, and that they have practiced it, because if we don’t find kindness then there will be brutality.
Many men and women have given their lives to give us freedom. And many more will do so for it’s in them to fight for that precious gift, like Ukrainians are doing today.
The way to honor them and all those others who’ve sacrificed to give us freedom, is not to lay a wreath at their tombs, for the great majority may have no tombs, having been buried in unmarked graves, but to let our minds think, let our voices ring loud and dare to speak up in the face of injustice.

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Putin in his Bunker

He’s alone in the room. He’s ordered dinner but he has some time yet.
It’s an ample room so he has space to stroll.
On his desk a series of phones are neatly arranged, along with some papers that arrived earlier which he has not finished reading.
On the wall across, in front of the desk, a bank of monitors show images of the war.
He’s standing in the center of the room, hands behind his back, head slightly bowed.

‘I admit… the invasion has been a mistake. I underappreciated Biden… and I overestimated the power of the Far Right in America. I clearly did not imagine that Europe would embrace America after the way that Trump had treated them.
And also grossly underestimated the will of the Ukrainian people… and that a small time comedian like Zelensky would have it in him to rise as a leader.
Those are grave mistakes on my part… and I’m not coming up with a way to undo them.’

He walks a short stretch and stops.

‘I am surprised that the Russian people have been so cooperative… so willing to believe everything I say to them. Which gives me hope that I can pull out of this hole I’ve dug myself into. But there’s no hiding from the fact that I will be a diminished leader on the world stage.’

He rubs his face slowly.

‘That hurts. I’m not winning the war. I didn’t imagine that America would be so vigorous in their defense of Ukraine. That they would be willing to spend so much money to back them up.
Why, even Republicans have joined in the effort. I missed that completely.
Biden has not got enough credit for his leadership of the western alliance…but he will… which is why I think he will be reelected… if he chooses to run… and does not fall ill.
As to Trump… he’s done… he won’t recover.
But will I?
I’ve fallen from a position of being feared, even respected… to being called a killer. And what leader from the top nations of the world will want to meet with me?
I’ll have to content myself with meeting with Viktor Orban, Modi, Xi Jinping, Erdogan, Marcos and other lesser figures.’

He turns around to see images of the bombing of a Russian depot in Crimea on the TV monitors.

‘A lot of Russians have died because of my decisions. How long will they be patient? Daria Dugin’s car was bombed. It was probably meant for Aleksandr, her father. Will they try to get to me? Yes. But I’m well protected.
Still, it won’t look good if an attempt is made on my life.’

He walks a few paces forward.

‘What options do I have? The way things are going, I don’t think we can beat the Ukrainians. Not with their motivation to fight and their help from the West.
I have talked about using nuclear weapons but if I do, retaliation will come. Xi has been very clear that it would be a bad choice.
But there are other things I could try… like targeting Zelensky himself and bringing him here, if he survives. I’ve had a hit squad training for that purpose for a while.
It would be demoralizing for his people. In the confusion, we push forward, gain more territory and right away ask for negotiations to end the war. So we split Ukraine. Having gained territory I can call it a victory.
I then offer to resume gas shipments at lower prices and that would relieve pressure on Europe.
As to Zelensky, I’d keep him as a hostage… put him on trial for crimes against humanity.’

He walks forward a few more steps, looking up now, more confident.

‘I’ll never regain the world standing I had but… so long as Russians want me, I’ll be their leader.’

A call comes in announcing that dinner is ready. He buzzes in the waitress, Hanna, who brings in the dishes and sets them on his desk. She bows, turns and leaves.

‘I’ve diminished myself as a man by my own hand and yet… I still see a future for myself.’

He smiles.

‘Sooner or later… some courageous Russians will encircle my bunker and tell me it’s all over. Just go into retirement, Mr Putin. It could be anybody… anybody with the guts to risk their lives. I know they’re out there… waiting for the right moment to strike. But they’ll have to be good… very good.’

He sits down to eat. He inspects the bottle of wine and opens it. In the last couple of months he’s only been drinking wines from 1999. The year he first became prime minister. He pours himself a glass, swirls the wine, then raises the glass for a toast.

‘To my future. To never giving up’.

He drinks. ‘Delicious.’

He turns off the monitors on the wall and looks at his music selection. He picks Tchaikovsky. His 1812 Overture. The Story of Napoleon’s defeat by the Russian army.

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Why We Won’t Reelect Trump.

Trump is a symbol of retreat from the world. Which appeals to the nativist.
But it is the wrong position to take.
If Trump had been elected in 2020, there would’ve been no war in Ukraine.
He would have given Putin the green light to take it over.
‘Look Donald,’ Putin would have said, ‘I need space. I know you’re not a great supporter of NATO so I appreciate that, but still, I need some room. Poland is too close, and so is Romania and the Baltic states. And let’s face it, you have term limits in the US. After this term, who knows who will become president and they may be hostile to Russia. So this is the time for me to take over Ukraine and have some breathing room. Just in case.’
And Trump would have answered, ‘I know what you mean, I feel cramped myself with all those democrats questioning every decision I make, so, yes, go ahead. But make it quick. An overnight operation should do. Fly Zelensky and his cabinet over to Berlin… though Berlin may be too close. I leave that up to you. I’d consider Mogadishu in Somalia. I hear they have nice beaches.’
Repression would have been ruthless in Ukraine but Putin would have got his legislative body to formally annex it.
Europe would have been speechless, and they would have said to themselves, ‘we can’t look to America anymore… so either we develop our own defensive forces or we’ll be annexed next, one nation at a time.’
But in 2020, enough Americans saw the light and more than 81 million came out in favor of Biden, versus the 74 million Trump got.
If a majority of Americans rejected Trump in 2020, more will reject him in 2024 if he decides to run as he’s suggesting he will.
What do I say that? Because the majority of Americans have only become more clearly convinced in the last 2 years that Trump is an atrocious choice for president.
We don’t know yet if he cheated on his taxes but he may have. Why so adamant about sharing the documents? A verdict has not been issued on whether he incited the crowd to storm the capitol on January 6th 2021, but if we don’t call it inciting, what do we call it? Did he tamper with the voting in Fulton county, Georgia, in his mad attempt to prove the election was stolen from him? We’ll have to wait but he surely was desperate.
Then there’s the sad spectacle of Republican senators who cannot stand up to him. Grown, mature men who have swallowed their tongue, waiting for the next instruction from Mar-a- Lago.
The majority of Americans are watching silently this unbelievable display of poor judgment and have made up their minds.
By contrast, this same majority, is seeing Joe Biden be a leader to our nation. They are seeing a man and his team making every effort to address our national problems and taking on the courageous job of uniting the West in opposing Putin’s cruel invasion of Ukraine.
Biden, not Trump, had the nerve to call Putin ‘a killer’, to call Russia a pariah state.
We either believe in the good judgment of the American people or we don’t.
I believe in it. Which is why I am sure, that Trump will not get reelected if he chooses to run.
He will be beat handily. By Biden, or any worthy democratic candidate.
The elections in 2024 will go to the democrats. The reason is simple. The Republican party is being choked by Trump and they can’t find a way of pushing him off and say to him, ‘Let us breathe!’
The nativist sentiment that propelled him to the presidency remains a factor which needs addressing. The resentment from having been left behind by globalization is real and needs to be worked with. But there is no easy way out as Trump thought.
Americans left behind should be entitled to educational grants to facilitate their education and so help them raise their standard of living. They should have fought for this as globalization was starting. But their leaders, too, were asleep at the wheel.
Immigration needs to be fixed but we need immigrants. A wall won’t do because it sends a horrible message to the rest of the world.
As an open society, we can deal with the Trumps of this world. We may be fooled once but not twice.
As we speak, Russia is slowly imploding under the disastrous rule of Putin.
China has plans to become the world’s dominant power and is watching us carefully.
But as long as we are a well governed nation, with opportunities for all, our productivity will give us the edge to remain a leading country and a defender of freedom and the rights of human beings.
This we can trust.

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An Internal Front in Russia? Beware Mr Biden.

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The recent killing of Daria Dugin, daughter of Aleksandr Dugin, both Russian ultranationalists and strong supporters of Putin’s war, can be seen as a sign that a new front against the war is opening up inside of Russia.
Which is bad news for Russia.
Russian authorities are blaming Ukraine for the killing while Ukraine has vigorously denied it.
But it takes a lot of inside knowledge to pull off that action, so my take is that it’s coming from Russia itself, the military in particular.
The attack was a bold move, planting a bomb in the car she was travelling in.
My take is that we’re likely to see more of these attacks, a sign of sharp disagreements with the conduct of the war and a new resolve to put an end to it.
Will Putin be the next target?
Putin is further restricting gas exports to Europe, but the alliance is holding.
Should there be an attempt on Putin himself, would he then imagine that the West is somehow involved and try to retaliate against a western leader?
Not inconceivable given Russia’s steady downward slide in international prestige.
Putin already knows that he cannot claw himself back up to a position of respectability. He’s killed too many people, committed too many atrocities.
Additionally, there’s been a widespread deterioration in international standards.
In 2018, the Saudi prince, MBS, was considered responsible by our intelligence agencies of ordering the killing and mutilation of Jamal Khashoggi, who held resident status in our nation and was a contributing journalist to the Washington Post.
On August 12th, Salman Rushdie, the distinguished writer, was stabbed in public in Chautauqua, NY, by an American of Iranian descent who may have been influenced by Iran’s issuing an edict to kill him for having written the Satanic Verses in 1988, which Iran considered blasphemous.
India, which has enjoyed wide support from America, is oblivious to it and is joining Russia and China in military exercises.
We have an ex president thinking of running for office, who may yet be found guilty of lying on his taxes, found guilty of inciting the riot on Capitol Hill on January 6th 2021 and is suspected of tampering with the ballots in the 2020 elections in Fulton County, Georgia.
I trust that the American people, in their wisdom, will see the essence of our former president and defeat him again at the polls, as he was in 2020.
In the meantime, the war in Ukraine goes on and Putin is not winning.
If an attempt on his life were made, would he retaliate by targeting Mr Biden?
I think the FBI and the Secret Service should be on high alert to protect our president.
He has courageously pulled together the western alliance that is pushing back Russia.
Planes are said to be on the way to further aid the courageous Ukrainians.
A desperate Putin, knowing that he is a failure as a leader to Russia, may try anything.
We must be ready.

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The Business Side – China

Two American business executives, Ray and Andrew, talk about the China threat.

Ray – Much too much is made of China taking advantage of what we produce, then working with it to improve it.
Andrew – They do a good job at it.
Ray – They do. The way to deal with it is keep improving our products. Making them better and better. Sure, if a particular technology is highly specialized and critical for our security, we should consider not letting them have it. But only for a little while. We should see China as a challenge for us to keep getting better and better. We’re in the making and selling of stuff, anything, and constantly improving it.
To do that we need markets. China is a great market.
Andrew – Does the Chinese state subsidizing private businesses gives them an advantage?
Ray – Of course. So, for critical industries, we should get our government to subsidize us too.
Andrew – We can’t change China. Might as well join them.
Ray – In some things.
Andrew – Do you have any doubt that they have the ambition to become the dominant power in the world?
Ray – No doubt at all. We just won’t let them. Period. If we need to go to war, then that’s what we’ll have to do.
Andrew – Nuclear war?
Ray – We don’t need to go there. More sophisticated conventional weapons should do. In Ukraine, the mobile launchers they now have are making a difference. And if they get the F-16’s they were promised, it will turn things around.
We just have to compete better with China. They are stealing from us because we have more than they do. In some areas, where they’re making a lot of progress, we need to invest more here in the states.
But China ought to be seen as a great stimulus to us, so we can become more efficient.
Andrew – We need to keep track of what they produce so we won’t become dependent on them.
Ray – Right. We shouldn’t become dependent on any one country. Just in case there’s conflict and the supply lines get gummed up. Like with Covid and in Ukraine. That was amazing how Europe got so trusting of Russia to provide their energy needs.
Andrew – So you’re not afraid of China getting stronger?
Ray – I’m not. But we need to keep getting stronger than them. As I said, let’s look at them as a stimulus to do better. Not just economically but politically.
Andrew – Do you think immigration gives us an advantage?
Ray – I do. There’s two things that give us a huge advantage. One is immigration – people all over the world want to come here, not to China. And the other is Freedom. They don’t know what that is in China. But they dream of it in secret.
I’m a believer that as they continue to get richer, one day they’ll want to have their freedom, too.
That will upset a lot of people in the communist party.
Andrew – Any challenges that you see we’re having trouble with?
Ray – Yes. We need to give our people more opportunity for advancement. So they can get a better education and earn more. If that means raising taxes on the wealthier, so be it.
The more educated our work force the better.
But keep immigration open. And our freedom.
Andrew – You heard about Liz Cheney announcing she’s interested in a presidential bid?
Ray – I did. She needs to change her stand on abortion to have a shot. Just say, ‘I changed my mind. This is too important to women. I’m now pro choice.’ And women would run to vote for her, just to see her in the primary debates go up against Trump and say to him, ‘Hey, didn’t you just try to overthrow our government? What are you doing here?’
Andrew – You think Biden will run again?
Ray – I do. And if Ukrainians manage to push back Russians he’ll win handily. That’s how important that war is.
Andrew – What do you think of Musk?
Ray – I think they’ll force him to buy Twitter and he’ll say to himself, ‘I should watch my mouth.’
Andrew – Thank you, Ray. We’ll meet again.

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How Do We Lose our Freedom?

Through intimidation.
How do we get it back?
Through confrontation.
(Is there room for persuasion? Of course. The earlier the better.)
So we should be keenly aware of any evidence of intimidation in our interactions with other human beings.
Make a note of it.
We must be aware also of a tendency in frightened human beings to identify with the aggressor. The frightened person takes their side.
We’re all vulnerable to being intimidated but the more aware we are of it, the more likely we are to recognize it.
Fear is a powerful force. In America, the second amendment gives citizens the right to bear arms. Will it make a difference if our civil liberties were to be endangered?
It will depend on the civic education of the bearer of arms.
A person with a proper civic education will clearly understand the importance of respecting other people’s rights even if he/she disagrees with their views.
Increasingly, though, in daily discourse, we see evidence that people with strong views on any given subject are intolerant of those who disagree.
The opposing parties don’t want to give in, which leads to the shunning of civil dialogue as a means to building bridges between the dissenting parties.
We’re doing too little bridge building in America today.
Too little of holding conversations with those with dissenting views just to get familiar with the arguments.
Even if no agreement is found, bridge building lets us learn about the other side and that is invaluable, for it informs us about their humanity.
The learning of freedom starts at home, with parents encouraging their children to speak their minds, to feel at ease in expressing their opinions.
‘What do you think, Nancy?’ ‘And what do you think, Tommy?’
‘I hear you,’ replies the parent, ‘And I think this and that.’
The foundation of dialogue is laid out at the dinner table, or in the after dinner chat.
The beauty of it is that the child internalizes the exchange and begins to ask questions about other things as well.
The benefit will extend to the classroom, where the child will ask better questions in class. And also in their interactions with friends.
And so the civic spine of a human being is formed. Step by step.
If children like that want to later become soldiers when they grow up, they will have a sense that their acquired powers are to be used in defense of freedom, not to suppress it.
And so the people of that nation will not be fertile ground to grow a totalitarian regime like in Russia or China today.

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China Will Fail. The Mirror of Russia

It is up to the West, from where China has got most of its stimulus for its economic growth, to decide on the rate of decline that China will suffer.
But decline they will.
Russia is holding up a mirror for them as their invasion of Ukraine exposes their flaws.
Repressive systems that blunt the development of human beings achieve only short lived victories. And so it will be with China.
There’s a lot of talent in that country, and my take is that the political docility they have shown toward the Communist party won’t last forever.
Eventually, they will start to buck the system. They will say something like, ‘our political development is as important as our technological and industrial growth, so let’s start to let up on the restraints you have on us. How about letting us run for office?’
Of course, those who dare say that will be sent to a reeducation camp, to rewire their brains and relearn how to bow to Xi Jinping, kiss his feet and venerate his image.
But the more people object, the more likely the dissident movement will grow.
Hong Kong may end up playing a leading role in that process.
When that starts to happen, the likelihood of an invasion of Taiwan will grow, so as to keep people distracted with outside matters.
China will have to be very careful with that move because I suspect America and the West won’t let Taiwan be trampled on and be stripped of its remarkable achievements in manufacturing.
Again, the mirror of Russia will do wonders for China’s political evolution.
It is very hard to persuade smart people that life is better without freedom.
Russia has nowhere to go but down with their invasion of Ukraine.
And the Chinese will pay close attention. They will ask themselves, ‘do we want that to happen to us?’
The mirror of Russia stands to be very important for China’s future. Whether Russia declines and retrenches into greater cultural isolation or whether it shakes itself up and dares to unseat Putin.
So Xi Jinping and his select group of power holders are watching very carefully.
They are tempted to help Putin massacre more Ukrainians, but they know their image will suffer even more than it has already.
They don’t want to anger Putin either, since the man has more nuclear weapons than they do, so they’re probably assisting him in some covert manner.
China does not represent an alternative political system, just like Russia’s doesn’t either.
There’s only one political system that is viable, and that is the one that respects human beings’ right to speak their minds and exercise their freedom while respecting that of others.
Democracy, with all its flaws, is the only system that sees that as its core belief.
Any other system to govern people is a pretext to preserve the benefits of an elite at the expense of the rest.

Oscarvaldes.medium.com, anchor.fm, apple and google podcasts.

On Iran: Clarity, Mr Biden

We keep trying to reestablish the Iran Nuclear deal and yet, Iran is now sending drones to Russia to help them fight Ukrainians.
How does that work?
From what I understand, a reactivated nuclear deal has been deemed desirable because it would give Israel more time to prepare for an eventual confrontation with Iran.
But why are they not ready now?
All along there’s been the perception that Iran is determined to have their nuclear bomb.
From the skies over Syria, Israel keeps bombing Iranian positions deemed hostile to their state.
I have trouble believing that if a deal is struck with Iran, that they could be trusted with anything they agree to.
Is the oil they produce worth all this effort?
Are the sanctions now imposed on them having any effect, or are they getting around them?
And if the nuclear deal is reactivated, aren’t billions of dollars expected to be paid to Iran as a form of compensation?
Does it make sense to subsidize a state that is a Russian ally?
I’m sure Ukrainians could put that money to better use.
I believe that we and the West can live without Iran.
Iran’s theocratic dictatorship will one day crumble from within and we will welcome them back to the community of nations, although it may take years for it to happen.
It is very unlikely that anything we do will prevent the expected confrontation between Iran and Israel or between Iran and us in the Persian Gulf.
The Iranians have chosen sides. They are with Russia and China and against us.
To think otherwise is wishful thinking.
Efforts have been made to bolster ties with Arab states in the region (Abraham Accords), started by the Trump administration.
We should keep working on those. But the reactivation of the nuclear deal with Iran does not seem beneficial to us at all.
President Biden, do take a moment to tell us why you’re keeping those talks alive.
What are we missing?
We need clarity.

Thank you

Oscarvaldes.medium.com