ukraine – Page 9 – Oscar Valdes

Putin on His Glory

He’s pacing in his office in his bunker.
He looks a bit tense but controlled, mostly an enjoyable feeling. He’s just finished a half glass of vodka with his filet of salmon, done ‘a la Vladimir’ by his personal chef. He is careful with his drinking. Always has been. He remembers Boris Yeltsin very well, and how drink undid him.
On the other hand, if it hadn’t been for Yeltsin, who handpicked him, he wouldn’t be where he is now.
He thinks about freedom, how the West carries on and on about it. Absurd.

‘There’s no freedom on earth, not really, it’s all in heaven. Which is why I’m not disturbed by all the casualties I inflict, death merely passage to a great and fair world. I mean… sometimes it does occur to me that heaven is a useful fiction but… what are the chances of that? Minimal. Have to play the odds… and I’m a gambling man.’

He paces some more.

‘The thought of the cartel drug lord in Chihuahua, Mexico, enters his mind. ‘How interesting. The young fellow kills two Jesuit priests and gets the third one to hear his confession. He didn’t kill him, so the likelihood is the priest pardoned him. What was he going to do, staring at the two dead bodies in front of him? “No, you’re a murderer, I’m not going to pardon you.” Of course, he pardoned him. Then said a couple of prayers with him, to console and send him off. I would’ve done exactly the same thing. Save your skin. Oh, the power of the gun.’

He stops and takes another sip of his vodka.

‘I have thought of putting a military base in Mexico. Just to piss off the Americans. I doubt the president of Mexico would let me, but just the talk of it would be enough to rile the Americans, which I love to do. I can even talk of putting bases in other countries, too, say Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba. Just to keep the Americans guessing.’

On the TV monitors affixed to the wall, scenes of the destruction in Ukraine flash by.

‘I am the toast of the world. I am reviled in some sections, sure, but in others I am a hero.
And I love the invitation to the upcoming G-20 meeting in November. Joko Widodo, the Indonesian president, personally extended the invitation. Just beautiful. I’d love to attend. By then I will have conquered all of Ukraine, or if not, at least destroyed most of their infrastructure, their schools, universities, hospitals, industries, malls, whatever. Turned them into beggars. Just so they never forget what it means to defy me.
The West will soon forget them, anyway, worried as they are of having to pay more for gas and so on.
And when I get to the meeting, there will be leaders of nations lining up to shake my hand and bow and have a photo taken with me. For posterity. Beautiful.
Narendra Modi will be there, and Xi Jinping, and I’ll try to mediate between them. Wouldn’t that be wonderful, if India would join our bloc? They’re cooperating so far. Then it would be Russia, China and India, against the West. We would be invincible.’

He crosses to a mirror on the wall adjacent and looks at himself. He smiles.

‘I’m strong and fit, good for another 20 years in power.’

He thinks of Trump.

‘I’m sorry to hear about what he went through after his defeat at the polls. I can only imagine what it would be like for me. Of course, I’d never give Russians the chance. But I’m sorry for Donald because I like him. I wish there was some way… well… not now. I certainly hope he runs again. If it hadn’t been for him, I wouldn’t have felt so certain that I could get away with invading Ukraine. I mean… I knew it wasn’t in him to rally the Europeans to oppose me… and he wouldn’t have started something on his own. Instead, he would’ve called me up and said something like, “Vladimir, you’re making me look bad by threatening to go in all the way like that… so in the open… instead, do it with stealth… get one of your people to run for president of Ukraine and get the comedian out. No military intervention, just infiltrate the government… meddle with the electoral process… and I’ll make sure NATO never makes Ukraine a candidate for membership. Be more subtle.” And just that thoughtfulness on his part, would’ve saved lives… Russian and Ukrainians both, and we would all be grateful.
Of course, they wouldn’t be free… they would be part of my growing empire… but again, what’s all the fuss about freedom?’

He paces a little more.

‘This freedom thing is a ruse the Americans play on their people. Are people killing each other, free? Of course not. This freedom thing is a mirage. Opium for the masses. Hmm. I know that’s not original but sounds good. Can’t remember who said it. Must be the vodka.
Are all those homeless people in America free? Right.
All the poor people free, too? Sure.
The only really free people in America are the ones with money. The rest don’t even vote or are too tired after work to think about it, which is why Trump stands a chance of getting elected and… if he plays his cards right, even getting the constitution changed so he can run again, for a third term, though he might be too old by then. But good for his successors. Anyway, he’s sure to beat Biden easily. Biden doesn’t have a chance, not with the drubbing I’m going to give Ukrainians and the relentless inflation.
Hmm.
The supreme court voided Roe vs Wade. The two term limit is next. Beautiful.
Count on me, Donald, even if you can’t hear me.
And, yes, I’d love to accept an invitation of yours to Mar-A-Lago and play a couple of rounds of golf. And do an appearance with you in your platform, Truth Social, and the world would be a more peaceful place. With fewer dead and ill. And Donald would let the Russian vaccine be used worldwide. Or talk to Xi, so he would use it in China. Not that their vaccine is bad. Just not as effective as mine.’

He opens his arms wide, a smile on his face.

‘Oh power, how grateful I am that I can hold you, how grateful that I will have you until I die.’

He frowns. His thoughts turn to the testimony of Ms Cassidy, a White House aide, on her recollections of what happened while the January 6th rioters were headed to the capitol.

‘That got away from Donald. If we had spent more time together, I would’ve made clear to him that he was in his right, as president, to have a gun on him, just in case, and when he got in the limousine to go to the capitol and lead the charge of the protesters in an unprecedented act of heroism, and the driver refused, he would’ve flashed his gun and made it clear who was boss. I bet the driver would’ve taken him… and the counting of the ballots would’ve been tampered with and Donald’s election would’ve been ratified by the conservatives in the supreme court and the world would’ve been spared the misery of Ukraine. Trump would have, single handedly, changed the course of history.
But it got away from him.
Not too late, though. There’s still time. Overturning Roe vs Wade is just the start. We have another election coming up. And Russians and Americans will become the best of friends.’

He smiles

‘I love me.’

Oscar Valdes, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

Abortion Rights. Street Interviews

Right after the supreme court overturned Roe vs Wade, ending the constitutional right to an abortion for American women, a reporter from KNTX100 set out to find people in the street to share their views.
The reporter (Rept), a woman, addresses a man as he approaches.

Rept – Good afternoon, I’m with KNTX100 and would like to get your impressions on today’s momentous supreme court decision. Are you aware of it?
Man (stopping) – Oh yes. It shocked me. I mean, we knew there was the possibility but still it shocked me.
Rept – In which way?
Man – What business do old men have telling women what to do with their bodies? This Alito guy and Thomas, they’re just envious they didn’t get a uterus. I mean, a uterus is a beautiful thing, all of humanity has been there, all of humanity has been coddled and nurtured in that beautiful organ, every one of us has been there, Alito and Thomas too, and they don’t want to accept the fact that it’s up to the women who have the uterus to decide what to do with what’s in it.
Rept – You don’t think there should be limits, depending on when the fetus becomes viable, as in able to subsist on its own?
Man – Sure, I’m for that, too. Give it three months, that gives the woman enough time to decide if she wants to carry it or not. Because that’s a lot of responsibility. Not just for when we’re in the womb but afterwards. I mean, mothers… they’re really important.
Rept – So you think Justices Alito and Thomas are envious of women?
Man – Yeah, these guys, they’re the epitome of men who want to control women. That’s the bottom line here. I mean, us men, we’ve got to get a grip. We want women to give us life, pleasure, comfort, keep our secrets, look pretty, you name it, and we still want to control them? It’s too much. We men have to realize they have their own power and we have to trust they will use it in the best interest of humanity, like they’ve been doing all along.
Rept – So you’re for equal pay for women and for doing away with the glass ceiling in corporate America?
Man – Got that right. Not only should women get equal pay but women who conceive and give birth should get a tax break, too, as a way of saying, thank you. Definitively some time off. And we might have fewer wars in the world if we had more women in leadership. That’s not to say we haven’t seen some bad women leaders… but we’ve got to give them a chance.
Rept – What do you think women should do in the face of this decision?
Man – I was just thinking about it. Women who live in states where they will ban abortion should just leave. They should pack up and go, start a mass migration to states where they can have an abortion, and the reason is that if a state bans abortion, then they most likely have an antiwoman climate also, so women will be limited in what they can accomplish in ways that might not even be noticeable. So John will get promoted but Jill will not. Or Jill gets groped like that Hollywood producer was doing. If I had a daughter and she was living in a state that banned abortion, I’d tell her, ‘Get out!’
Rept – You don’t think they should stay and fight?
Man – If that’s what you want, sure. But those states will have a lot of hard headed men, and old fashioned women – brainwashed – who will make their life tough. So better get out and make a life elsewhere. Look, most women want to have children, it’s in them, that’s how nature made them, but in this modern age they deserve a chance to choose what to do with their lives and bodies. Mistakes happen and people get pregnant when they didn’t want to or just change their minds.
It shouldn’t be up to this Alito guy, or that dude Thomas, Kavanaugh, Gorsuch, Coney, you know the bunch.
I’d say to all women in states where abortion is banned, ‘get out, get out now!’
Believe me, if they start that migration, pretty soon the guys will follow them and those states will suffer. Maybe then they’ll rethink the matter. Meanwhile, I’m putting those states in my flyover list. Good riddance.
Rept – Any final comments?
Man – Yeah. God has nothing to do with it. God wants women to be happy and if they want to have an abortion, that’s okay with God.
Rept – What do you think of the war in Ukraine?
Man – Ghastly. We need to do all we can for Ukrainians. Give them planes so they can push Russians back.
Rept – Thank you so much for your thoughts, Mr…
Man – Joe… just call me Joe.
Rept – Thank you, Joe. (facing the camera) Reporting from Greenville, South Carolina, for KNTX100 and our sister affiliate in New Orleans, this is Tilly Pence.

She switches off her mike and the cameraman stops recording.

Man – Say, Tilly, you related to Mike Pence?
Rept – I am, by marriage to someone in the family tree.

Now a woman approaches. The cameraman notices and tells Tilly. Joe waves goodbye and leaves.
Tilly turns her mike back on as the cameraman starts to record the approaching woman.

Rept – Hi, I’m Tilly with KNTX100… I wanted to ask you a few questions…
Woman (smiling) – I know who you are. I saw you interviewing the gentleman, so I figured I could put in my two words.
Rept – Of course. So what do you think of the supreme court’s decision?
Woman – I’m so relieved with the decision, my prayers finally answered. Can’t thank enough the good judges. We’re truly blessed in America to have such people.
We now have God’s wishes, no tampering with creation and respect for the sanctity of life.
We are vessels for the will of God.
Our primary responsibility is to deliver to the world God’s gift – human beings. Men can’t do what we do. We conceive, carry and deliver humanity to the world, assuring our survival and progress. It’s a grand task and we women should be very proud of our capacity.
Rept – You have children?
Woman – Five. And I’ve been doing well professionally, too, so it hasn’t interfered.
Rept – Congratulations. One person I interviewed today said that, in light of the decision and as protest, women in states that don’t allow abortion should leave and migrate to states that permit it.
Woman – No, that would be disastrous. We women are fighters, we don’t give up and leaving would be giving up. Plus that would mean shrinking the pool of women available for procreation.
Rept – That was his point…
Woman – It’s not right… we need to populate all of America, not just the East and West coast.
Rept – What do you think of the war in Ukraine?
Woman – Oh, God, It’s so wrong. Those images… haunting… any destruction is wrong…
Rept – You think we’re doing the right thing in helping them out?
Woman – Actually, some help is okay but we’re spending too much… they’re just too far away… Biden’s spending like they’re his cousins… but there’s so much to do here now… and the gas prices keep going up. Everything.
(She smiles)
I have to go now. thanks for the interview. When will it air?
Rept – This evening…
Woman – Will I be in it?
Rept – Yes. Of course, we edit a little.
Woman – Of course. I just want to see myself on TV. Thank you

She turns and walks away.

Rept- So there it is folks, two different views on this difficult and divisive issue.
This is Tilly Pence, for KNTX100, until next time.

Oscar Valdes, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

A Military Solution to an Economic Problem

The news today is not uplifting.
Russia continues to gain against Ukraine in the Eastern regions, is now targeting grain terminals in Ukraine’s port of Mykolaiv (WSJ) to damage the country’s food exports, is increasing cyberattacks on the western alliance (WSJ), while Turkey goes on obstructing Finland and Sweden’s push for NATO membership (NYT).
Meanwhile, the growing costs of inflation have spread widely and the rise in interest rates is slowing down the economy globally, all of which weakens the collective resolve of western nations to support Ukraine.
How long before Ukraine stops getting what it needs and is then trounced by Russia?
Not long.
Not all countries in the EU have contributed equally to the war effort, Germany and France underperforming significantly, yet public shaming seems to go only so far.
Nations are protesting they have limits.
If we keep going at this pace, Russia will devour Ukraine. And everyone watching will shake their heads and say, ‘what a shame… but really… there’s only so much we can do. Now we just hope they won’t invade us. So let’s be nice to Putin and the Russians.’
Something like that.
Do we want to live that way?
Hell, no!
If we do so, it amounts to a grand failure of leadership.
We started out giving much support to Ukraine but have not gone all the way.
Hasn’t Ukraine’s courage earned them the right to get all the arms they need?
Do we allow all their suffering and lives lost to be in vain?
Judging by the increasing protests of western nations, their economic concerns with the soaring price of energy, there is not much time left to act decisively.
So the time to give Ukraine all they need is now. That may not assure a victory but it will say we did all we could.
The slowing of the support given to Ukraine is a veiled effort to ask them to give up.
But they will not. It is their land and they won’t have it.
Which then throws it back in our face.
Ukraine will go all the way, help or no help from the West.
Are we expecting them to die in the battlefield and then live with the notion that we didn’t do all we could? That we didn’t give them the proper weapons?
The idea that our giving Ukraine fighter jets to push back Russia is going to trigger a nuclear war is a farce.
Putin may well be infuriated by it but we are as well armed as Russia and China combined.
Acting decisively now by giving Ukraine all they need is allowing ourselves the chance of victory.
Once victorious, sanctions should be lifted partly or completely, and the world economic crisis will begin to resolve.
The sanctions have been only modestly effective and there is no way we can influence China and India to stop buying Russian oil. Why, even western nations are asking for exemptions from the sanctions on one or another commodity.
We’re too interdependent to cut things off quickly and expect a powerful result. That will take time to plan.
But a military victory today is possible. Which will then permit the lifting of sanctions.
For us not to push for a military victory is a failure of courage.
It is saying we allowed Putin to frighten us.
Today, we stand awash in over caution, while letting Putin throw at Ukrainians everything he has.
Let us act now, damn it!
We should not back away from this confrontation without the sense that we gave it our best. And our best is to arm Ukraine to the fullest, short of nuclear weapons.
Ukrainians are saying to us, here we give our lives, helps us!
Who in recent history has said that loudly for all the world to hear?
No one.
So let us act.
Putin should not be allowed to intimidate us.
He needs to be confronted now.

Note to Mr Biden.
You’re heading out to the Middle East in the days to come. Word is that you’re expected to meet with MBS (Muhammad Bin Salman) who, our intelligence agencies have determined, is responsible for the murder of journalist and Washington Post contributor Jamal Khashoggi in October 2018 after he entered the Saudi Arabian consulate in Ankara, Turkey. He had been publicly critical of the Saudi regime.
I understand that Saudi Arabia can play a role in stabilizing the tensions in the region and is willing to ally with us to counter Iran’s threats.
As our president you need to look at the big picture.
But that does not mean you have to bow to that nation’s leadership. It sends a bad signal.

Oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.

Putin on The Way It Is

The war rages on – almost 4 months now – inflation is hurting the world economy – food shortages are forecast – while Putin gloats in Moscow, ‘I made this happen,’ he says proudly.
‘I command the world’s attention. This is my moment. I have killed and killed Ukrainians and still millions and millions of people adore me and hold me up as a model. People in China, in India and all those smaller, peripheral countries destined to never amount to anything.
All the while China and I have a lock on the United Nations. Interesting organization… yes… and toothless, too. A place where every country can come in and blah blah blah until they run out of spit but where Russia and my great ally China hold veto power in the security council. So if we say no, then it is no. Never mind the secretary general. Without us he’s nothing.
The West talked about sanctions. I laugh. I have worked around them. I keep selling my oil and gas and our profits are growing.
And I have done it all because I know how to scare people.
I say I have nuclear weapons and most leaders pee in their pants, run around in circles crying, oh no, he will fire his nuclear weapons!
Don’t confront him, he’s dangerous, please, he cannot be humiliated!
Poor things. Afraid of a little inflation. Afraid of protests because the price of gasoline has gone up. I laugh. I would send the fire department with their water cannons to hose them down and wash them off the street and into the gutters, and those who insist on protesting I’d throw in a dungeon. That’s how you govern. And to be sure, Russians love my style. The want to be like me. Ha!
On this war, America started out with enthusiasm, with determination, but now they’ve lost their oomph. Now they’re back to their citizens complaining about the price of gas and how they don’t know any Ukrainians and how they’re so far away and what’s in it for them.
Of course, that’s when true leaders come in and set the record straight. Tell the complainers what needs to be done and why and enough with the whimpering. But they can’t do it. So it’s my game, all the way until I conquer all of Ukraine. All of it, damn it. All of it. And I’ll have Zelensky tried on charges of crimes again humanity. I’ll do it because no one will stand in my way.
What a joke the West is. Promising missiles and this and the other. But it takes them forever to deliver. Meanwhile I gain more and more ground. I love it. Before long I’ll have all of Ukraine’s eastern region under my foot. Beautiful. Then we’ll finish off occupying all their coast. Then back to Kyiv. Then push West, all the way to the borders with Poland and Rumania, scare them and their NATO bullshit.
I’m making the world my world. Slowly. This is the start of Putin’s world. And I’ve done it not with diplomacy but with bravado. With daring. With guts. With flair.
While the mighty West shits in their pants.’

He laughs.

Now, if I were them… from the very start I would’ve said, Putin, you can’t do it. Don’t do it. You’ll be sorry. Look, we have intelligence telling us you’re going to invade. We’re going to give planes and missiles to Ukrainians so they can defend themselves. We won’t let you slaughter them. Don’t do it.
But I can see how Ukrainians had not yet proven themselves on the battlefield. But they have now, so what’s the excuse to not give them all they need to fight me?
What’s amazing in their story, is they’re willing to fight so hard for what they believe. That’s what’s amazing. I would love to have them on my side instead.
The reason Ukraine is so important today is just that… the show of commitment in defense of what you believe.
But the world is not getting it. The French and Germans are not getting it.
The Poles, on the other hand, have got it. From the very start.
In fact the French and Germans seem to be in a hurry to sit down to negotiate a deal to cease hostilities. And Macron wants France to be the mediator. Works for me, since Macron doesn’t want me to be ‘humiliated’ but if I were Zelensky, I’d choose the Poles to be the negotiators. Doesn’t matter to me that much who it is because in the end, if it’s not going my way, I’ll get up and leave and start shooting and bombing again.
One of my greatest achievements, of course, is to have convinced Europe that they could rely on me for all their energy needs. Convinced them that I was not just a nice bear, but a teddy bear. And they fell for it. Mind you, all this time I have been teaming up with Assad in Syria to slaughter their opposition, so it’s not like I was hiding anything. We’re Europeans, not Syrians, it won’t happen to us, they told themselves. We’re so chic. Oh, so cultured. So distinguished. So unique. Oh, dear, you name it. Until it happened. Denial is the word for it.

He laughs.

I was born for this moment. As far as China is concerned, they’re stuck with me. Who else are they going to turn to? India? No. They can’t stand each other. China doesn’t have anywhere near the nuclear warheads I have, and I’ll keep close tabs on them. I’m going to keep building even more, and if they start to pile them up, too, I’ll give Xi a courtesy call, say Xi, you can’t keep building so many warheads. Look, we’ve been good friends but you got a whole lot more people than I have… so you could run me over… but so long as I have more weapons, you’ll have to chill. So please stall on the building of nuclear weapons. I know your politburo designated you a ‘historical figure’, but that’s the way it is.
And they will do as I say because, in a confrontation between the two of us, they don’t have a chance. I have the upper hand and will keep it that way’
Life is beautiful… yes, indeed.
As to the next American elections, haven’t made up my mind whom to campaign for, using my team of cyber experts. Not Trump, though. I think his time has passed. I liked him. But now I need someone with even deeper isolationist sentiments. Someone who wants to isolate into oblivion. Build a wall in the South, in the North, East and West. The more chances for Russia and my buddy Xi, to go deeper into Africa, South America, the Middle East, the rest of Asia.

Pause

But what could America do to counter me at this time’
Give planes to Ukraine? More missiles? Sure. But what they should do yet I know they won’t because they don’t have the nerve, is to make a commitment to Ukraine and say, we will give you anything you need, planes, missiles, anything – except troops, of course – because we want you to win. And if in the end you don’t win, we’ll settle for whatever land you were able to defend, and we’ll help with negotiations, even the lifting of sanctions on Russia and so on, and we’ll do what we say we will, because with your heroism, you have behaved like no other nation in recent history… and so earned a place in our hearts and minds. Forever.’

Please see Ifw-Kiel.de. Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Ukraine Tracker

Oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

This is the Moment to Act

Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve Bank raised the nation’s interest rate by .75 bps. Forecast had it that the figure would be either 0.5 or 0.75.
Markets went up after the news but today lost all the gains and are back down to where they were before the announcement.
To the extent that financial markets anticipate the state of the economy, the news is not good. We’re heading downhill.
The Federal Reserve may have been too aggressive, particularly since the markets had been heading down steadily. The bank’s chairman, Jerome Powell, had talked of a soft landing as he raised rates but instead gave in to the hawkish wing of the bank that pushed for the 0.75 hike.
Now think of how different things could be if we were winning the war instead?
Vastly different.
Optimism would fuel the markets and we would feel much more positive about being able to prevent a recession.
If only we were doing what we should be doing.
Macron, Scholz and Draghi (from France, Germany and Italy) met today with Zelensky, Ukraine’s president.
The public statements of the officials are all for supporting Ukraine’s fight for independence, but what happens behind close doors is likely very different.
For one, neither Germany nor France have delivered the heavy equipment Zelensky has called for.
Instead they are likely pushing for Zelensky to settle. To negotiate with Russia, to agree to terms.
Both Macron and Scholz would love to see themselves as the grand negotiators that brought the warring parties to the table. They may be already dreaming of the Nobel prize they’d be sharing for bringing peace to the region.
Zelensky should not give in.
Macron and Scholz are telling Zelensky, ‘look, inflation is hurting us badly. We have done enough. You need to think of compromising. We can’t get all we want in life, so give in a little.’
Zelensky should not give in.
The real problem with inflation is the war.
Russia has been able to circumvent the sanctions and managed to sell a good deal of its oil. They are filled with cash and confident that they’ll keep finding ways to do so.
Today I read that Russia has now cut back further on their gas supplies to Europe. The squeeze is on.
So why isn’t Zelensky and Ukraine getting all the help they need?
Because many nations in the western bloc are chickening out.
Surely there are real life obstacles to delivering the heavy equipment needed but if you’re dragging your feet then you’re chickening out. Then you’re saying, ‘Putin is really scary, he’s out of control, he just might target us. Oh, no. What will we do if that happens?’
The real problem with today’s inflation is the war.
Yes, it has to end, but not without first giving Ukraine all they need to fight back and that should include war planes.
Otherwise Ukraine should not negotiate with a killer who has butchered their nation.
Mr Biden, I’m not letting you off the hook.
I’m sure you were told in detail of Macron, Scholz and Draghi’s mission. Do not be a party to that weaklings’ effort.
Step up, do not back down now.
You’ve been courageous until now, but this is not over and not the time to call it quits.
This is a unique moment in our history, indeed, the world’s history.
We can’t let the bully win.
Ukraine wants to fight till the end. How often do you hear that from a nation?
Ukrainians who left are returning to their land in the middle of the war. It takes guts to do that.
If you do not fully back Ukraine you will lose your presidency. Period. But back Ukraine with all they need and your standing will be exceptional.
Damn it, make the difficult choice! You’ve been there before. Don’t join with the appeasers.
See, even if Ukraine doesn’t beat back Russia, if they get all the equipment they need they would have fought an exceptional battle. We haven’t seen anything like this since WWII.
It is your turn to shine, Mr Biden. Take the chance. Don’t back down.
Putin can be beat. He will not trigger WWIII. He won’t because he’s not crazy and has a lot to lose. But he’s good at scaring people and has been getting away with it.
Don’t let him scare you, too.
He’s already got Macron and Scholz in his back pocket.
This is your moment, Mr Biden, win or lose, this is your moment. Don’t flinch. Go forward.

Oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.

The War. The Economy. Our Psyches

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The war has had a profound effect on inflation.
One is the obvious impact that sanctions on Russia have had on the energy markets with shortages raising prices everywhere.
Another is the lingering supply chains snarls generated by the pandemic, now worsened by the conflict.
And then there’s the enormous effect on our psyches. The corrosive effect of seeing the count of dead people grow, buildings destroyed, lives wrecked.
When will it end?
How much more pain will be inflicted?
Now we are beginning to suspect Russia will not be pushed back and out of Ukraine.
We are beginning to suspect that Russia will subdue and demolish it. With impunity and the whole world watching.
If Putin wins, we will have to worry about his future behavior and how it emboldens China’s quest for dominance.
Putin may be tempted to invade another country. Tiny Moldova, for instance, sitting on the southwest border with Ukraine, where Russian separatists already occupy the Transnistria region.
How long will the sanctions against Russia be kept?
The cumulative effect of these factors is not only weighing on markets but on our minds.
Central banks are raising interest rates. Companies’ forecast for earnings are decreasing while the price of stocks plummet and plummet.
Uncertainty and more uncertainty.
Can anything be done about it? Or do we watch impotently?
There is something unsettling about feeling a lack of control.
We were recovering from the pandemic, which we knew would be difficult anyway,
and then Putin chose to start his war. And his war became everybody’s war.
Nations have taken sides and the world has divided into two camps.
The United Nations has become an impotent body. Russia, the grand aggressor, holds veto power in the Security Council, as does China, rendering that distinguished body ineffective.
With energy prices rising and rising, the possibility of a recession grows greater and so does the chance of a depression.
But can anything be done to change the present course of events?
We have two options before us.
In one, we do nothing. And Putin wins, the world cements its divisions and the economy goes into a long slowdown.
In the other, we fight back. We challenge Putin. And we do it now.
Public figures like Henry Kissinger and Emmanuelle Macron have come forward in favor of accommodation, Kissinger stating that there’s a role for Russia (a role depriving others of their freedom?) and Macron saying that we have to learn to live with Russia (why?).
But those statements sound weak when a nation like Ukraine is willing to offer its people in battle, when they have already sacrificed thousands upon thousands of men and women, for the sake of their freedom from the Russian boot.
They cry of the Ukrainian people keeps piercing our minds, the pain of their agony keeps intruding into our daily lives, ‘Help us,’ they cry, ‘Give us the weapons to defend ourselves!’
And we have, to some extent.
But not enough.
The war has changed our minds and hearts since it started on February 24th.
Back then we didn’t know how courageous a nation could be.
Ukraine’s is a lesson for the entire world.
Short of nuclear weapons, they have earned the right to get all the assistance the West can provide.
They have earned it with their blood.
Macron of France, was quoted as saying that it would take years and years, maybe 15 for Ukraine to become part of NATO. How wrong can that man be?
There are just so many Ukrainians to die in defense of their land, of their right to be free.
We in the West, those willing to do so, need to do all we can to assist them now.
History will record which nations chose not to help, but that’s for them and their conscience to settle. For now, it’s those willing to go all out that need to step forward and make a full commitment to the freedom of Ukraine.
And that means a willingness to challenge Putin.
If Ukraine falls even though they got all the help we could give them, so be it.
But our consciences will be at peace, that in the hour of need, we didn’t cringe or surrender to our fears, but stepped front and gave our full support to a courageous people.
Ukraine’s fight is telling the world, ‘this is what is needed to step up and say We are Free’ while Russians and Chinese, and the rest of the subjugated people in our world, watch with admiration, envy and remorse.
This is the time to go all out for Ukraine.
Or we’ll have to live with the regret of not supporting those who deserve it.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts

Putin on Intimidation and Biden

A group of high ranking officials and generals have gathered in an ample room below ground in a bunker in Moscow. Seated in rows and files they face Putin at the front, who addresses them.

Putin – After a slow start, owing to a few mistakes we made, we are now winning the war in Ukraine.

His audience gives a warm applause.

Putin – And we are winning because we have used intimidation successfully.

Nods and murmurs of approval from the audience.

Putin – Intimidation requires persistence. And so I keep reminding the West that we have nuclear weapons… I say so again and again… implying that I’m willing to fire them… at any moment… and so abruptly end their decadent lives.
Americans and the West compare themselves with our country and say, ‘Russia is much less wealthy than we are. We have more to lose than they do.’
Exactly. And so I keep repeating, ‘We have nuclear weapons.’
It’s working.
We have been sanctioned economically, which hurts, but we still manage to exploit the cracks in the system and sell our oil and other resources. China and India have been most cooperative and so our coffers are full. In consequence, we have been able to lower our interest rates.
True, we are dependent on the West for parts for some industries, including the military, but the black market will continue to help us counter the sanctions, at least for a while, which gives us time to push for the complete occupation of Ukraine.

Warm applause.

Putin – The defeat we are about to inflict on America will be decisive. We are slowly degrading their morale, exposing the fact that they cannot present a united front consistently. Germany’s indecisiveness keeps undermining the alliance and so with our friends the Hungarians. Meanwhile, Macron of France keeps doing a masterful job of reminding his partners that I should not be humiliated, that I have feelings.

Laughter from the audience.

Putin – And Erdogan, in Turkey, manages to brilliantly obstruct Finland’s and Sweden’s decision to join NATO. A very nice vacation spot Turkey is, so thank you Mr Erdogan, for not joining in the sanctions against us.

Applause.

Putin – There is significant isolationist sentiment in America, which helps our case. We will keep using our sophisticated cyber operations to foster that sentiment. Lots of Republicans are saying, ‘no more help for Ukraine.’ Good.
Slowly then, with the help of American isolationists, we will neutralize their resolve to support Ukraine.
We’re almost there.
Notice how I’ve been able to keep the West from providing warplanes to Ukraine. Poland had the right idea when they pushed to hand over their Mig jets, but the coalition balked. I was staring them in the eye with my message ‘I have nuclear weapons,’ and the subtext ‘and willing to use them’, when they blinked. So they turned down Poland’s offer.
Instead of shortening the war with the war planes, they have prolonged it.
My bet that the West’s indecisiveness would give us Ukraine, was correct. For they keep thinking, ‘We have so much more than them’.
I have been pleasantly surprised to see how effective our strategy has been. Though I was confident of our eventual victory, I did not anticipate the tremendous impact I would cause on inflation and the world markets.
I love seeing how the market indices keep dropping and dropping, how they overreact to inflation concerns, a mark of their lack of conviction in their government and in themselves.
But it is the result of my clear strategy. I knew I could scare them into inaction and I have.
I do not know if giving Ukrainians war planes would have been decisive, or could be decisive, but fierce Ukrainians, defending their land with the right weapons, would likely have made a difference. They could have forced us out of their territory.
Would I have been humiliated by such action? Don’t know. But I would’ve been reluctant to commit most of my air force to blunt it, for it would have left me too exposed.
I am as impressed as the rest of the world with the bravery and resolve of the Ukrainian people and have to admit that I misjudged Zelensky. He’s a far stronger leader than I thought.
But the momentum is now in our favor.
The West had an opportunity to seize the moment and it didn’t.
And so the totality of Ukraine will be conquered.

Applause.

Putin – I do worry, that the tenacious spirit of Ukrainians might lead to a resistance movement, a form of guerrilla response which could be bloody and lasting. I worry because if it keeps killing our soldiers it may become too costly.
Before I take questions, I’d like to make a comment on Biden and Afghanistan.
The prevailing opinion has been that Biden’s decision to leave Afghanistan influenced my decision to take over Ukraine. That is not correct. In my view, Biden did the right thing. He cut his losses. That was a never ending war. Pakistan would have continued to support the Taliban making an American victory impossible. The question is, why did it take them so long to get out?
My decision to invade Ukraine was due to my conviction, that the isolationist sentiment Mr Trump had stirred, along with America’s growing internal acrimony, would be long lasting. I was right.
Biden’s pulling out of Afghanistan had nothing to do with it.
In fact, Biden’s resolve has surprised me. He has shown tremendous commitment to the cause of the unification of the West and the defense of Ukraine. But the economic upheaval the war has caused has diminished his influence.
Still, this is not yet over.
Biden could, against all critics, decide to agree to give Ukrainians the war planes they need.
He could still make the choice to challenge me.
He’s a risk taker. Will the rest of America allow him to do so, I’m not sure.
Although I didn’t like it, he publicly called me a ‘killer’ and a ‘war criminal’.
How would I respond to a challenge of his, I don’t know, but this I can say, though we don’t have as much as the West does, we do have something. Russia has something. And we don’t want to lose it.
Questions?
Official (standing up) – Mr President… what do you think of America’s Right to Bear Arms, their second amendment?
Putin – It wouldn’t happen here, I can say that…

Laughter from the audience.

Putin – … I just read that, on average, there’s a school shooting in America every month.
And they can’t agree on how to stop them. They’re bleeding to death. Advantage Russia.
Next question?

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.net, anchor.fm, buzzprout, apple and google podcasts

Putin Must be Confronted

His troops, better armed and more numerous than Ukraine’s, are gaining ground in the Donbas area, with the possibility they may encircle their adversary.
A day or two ago Russia fired missiles that landed on Kyiv. More are expected.
And Putin warned the West about giving Ukrainians longer range missiles.
There is a side in this war that seems eager to negotiate with Putin so he is not ‘humiliated’, which I take to mean that Russia gets to keep territory they didn’t occupy before the invasion.
I think they are wrong.
Putin must be confronted and the only way to do that is to better arm Ukrainians.
In providing them with missiles, Biden got guarantees from Zelensky that the weapons would not be used to fire into Russian territory. I think that’s a sound request.
So why not get the same agreement with war planes?
As the war has pressed on, the West has got bolder. Bolder because Ukrainians have shown amazing resolve in defending their land.
So why not give them the kind of weapons that can make a huge difference in this conflict?
Putin needs to be confronted.
He cannot be allowed to continue to make threat after threat.
Ukraine was never his. Never Russia’s.
In 1994, as the Soviet Union dismantled, Ukraine surrendered their nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees from Russia and the West. But those did not stop Putin from invading it.
Why shouldn’t, then, the West arm Ukraine with the very best, short of nuclear weapons?
To date, the only deterrent has been Putin’s threats.
It is time the West confronted them.
Biden has made clear that NATO forces won’t be used unless a NATO nation is attacked, nor that he would put American troops on the ground. Good. We should keep those commitments.
But Ukraine is being ravaged by the war and they have shown the determination to defend their land.
I read that Ukrainians that had left their country at the start of the war are now returning.
They are eager to fight for their nation.
The missing piece so far has been war planes.
If Ukraine gets them and loses the war, so be it.
But they just might turn this around and drive the Russians out.
If Ukrainians are willing to risk everything in their fight against Russia, we should step up and help them with all we can.
Will Putin be ‘humiliated’ by a defeat of his armed forces? I am sure he would be.
But that’s his problem. We should not ‘buy’ peace with timidity or acquiescence.
Putin is a thug. Thugs understand force. Ukraine has what it takes to push him back.
Let us arm Ukraine with all they need and let them determine their fate.
If Russia wins, so be it.
But they may not. And if so the world order will change.
This is the time to act. Now.

Oscar Valdes, oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.

Biden and MBS, the Saudi Prince

It is hard for me to write this blog, having learned that Biden has agreed to a trip to Saudi Arabia later this month to ‘reset’ the relationship with the kingdom.
Reset implying we ignore what has happened before and start anew.
MBS, Mohammed Bin Salman, has been less than princely, having ordered the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, a critic of the regime, a Saudi national and a distinguished Washington Post contributor. The murder took place in 2018 as concluded by our intelligence services.
Biden was rightly outraged by such behavior at the time and spoke openly about it during his campaign for president, but now he’s changed his position.
The advocates of realpolitik are delighted. I am disappointed.
Do resets help at all?
Obama called for a reset after Russia invaded Georgia in 2008. It did nothing, for Putin invaded Crimea in 2014 and has been ravaging the Ukrainian nation for the past three months plus.
One can argue that the relationship with the Saudis is different. It is. But so should be the standards we hold them to.
With this planned reset, however, the prince gets away with the assassination of Khashoggi.
Authorizing such act took planning on the part of the prince. It took thinking of the consequences. It was not a rash act. And the prince concluded he could get away with it. His nation has oil and the world needs it. Thus, the world will come to him. The world will give him a pass. He was right.
Biden was outraged enough by such behavior that at one point he called the Saudi nation a pariah nation.
Then the war in Ukraine happened, prices at the pump rose sharply, Americans complained and are now expected to punish democrats at the polls this November.
In making the choice of doing a reset, little thought was given to the idea of speaking directly to all of us and saying, ‘the war in Ukraine is requiring major sacrifices from us, and one is the high prices at the pump. But we are working on it. As your president, I will keep doing all I can to lower such prices. But we should not negotiate with those who have shown a profound disregard for human rights.’
At no point has the Saudi prince gone before the world and said, ‘I take responsibility for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi for it happened while I was the de facto ruler of this kingdom.’
Don’t expect it, either.
Somehow, the leaders of our world believe it is simply too much to ask from one of their own. Impunity comes with the high positions.
I am disappointed that Mr Biden, having done an exemplary job at leading the western nations against the Russian invasion of Ukraine, did not trust that most Americans would appreciate his effort.
It is not that Mr Biden lacks persuasive abilities, but somehow he didn’t trust himself on this one.
Saudi Arabia has been an ally. They can play a role in defusing tensions in the Middle East, but the behavior of the prince is and remains unacceptable. It should not be whitewashed. Giving him a pass can be seen as real politik but it ends up being bad politik for it devalues us.
Our stance in Ukraine has been most decorous. The morality of the cause of the defense of freedom in Ukraine has been invoked to marshal greater and greater efforts from other nations and it has been paying off.
Allowing the Saudi prince to get away with murder does not square with that stance.
I read also that the Saudis are miffed that America is placing much emphasis on the development of renewable energy. While good for the environment it does not fit with the Saudi business model.
When Biden goes to Saudi Arabia he will shake hands with the prince but something will be lost. And what is lost may even have repercussions in our stance on the war with Ukraine and it could weaken it.
Is staying in power, at any cost, worth the effort? I say no.
The Saudi prince felt threatened by Jamal Khashoggi. Democrats feel threatened by oil scarcity and higher prices.
The vaunted reset is akin to saying, when scared we compromise, and we don’t mind coming down a peg or two in our moral standing.
Finally, here’s my personal request to Mr Biden as he gets ready to meet with the prince and the Saudi Royal family. Make it clear that there will be no exchange of gifts between the two.
And please, though they see themselves as kingly, do not bow to them.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.

Where Biden and I Differ

As citizen of a democracy – a remarkable notion conceived and bequeathed to humanity by Athenians – I have the option of publicly differing with my President which I will proceed to do.
Russians wished they had not let such privilege be stolen from them by Putin. Had they not allowed it we wouldn’t be having this war.
But to the point.
The war in Ukraine has been hard fought. Ukrainians have been exemplary fighters, and yet the greater number of Russian soldiers and armament give them the advantage.
Slowly, I fear, the Ukrainian resistance will begin to wear down.
Though the West has provided much equipment to counter the Russian offensive, it is not enough to stop the invaders.
Mr Biden has been very clear with the American people. He does not approve of any attack on Russia, will not place any American soldiers or NATO troops on Ukraine and strictly forbids that weapons given to Ukraine be fired into Russian territory – the land Russia now occupies in eastern Ukraine exempted.
Ukraine is dependent on the West for weaponry. If we don’t provide them, regardless of their courage in combat, over time they will be overrun and quashed by Russian forces.
But can we move a step further and provide Ukraine with parity in armaments? Can we give them enough to not only hold against the Russians but beat them back and out of their nation?
After three months of uninterrupted warfare, the struggle is entering a period of fatigue.
Ukrainians have excellent leadership but that may not be enough.
Our main worry – Biden’s worry – about weapons assistance to Ukraine is that Putin will consider such assistance to be an escalation on the part of the West. And so providing Ukraine with war planes has been forbidden.
Putin has repeatedly reminded us of his nuclear arsenal and how he is willing to use it.
All along his calculation has been that Ukraine is more important to him than to the West and that sooner or later we will tire out and Ukraine will be asked to be reasonable and urged to negotiate with him.
In fact, those forces are already at work.
But we would be making a huge mistake to give in and accommodate with Putin.
True, there is the risk of a nuclear confrontation, though I believe it is much less than at the start of the war. The reason is that Putin has discovered western resolve which he did not expect and realizes he has as much or more to lose from a nuclear war than we do.
China will be the first to tell him not to dare go down that path because they don’t want to be a target of a western response.
So now is the time to step up the lethality and reach of the weapons we provide to Ukraine. Now is the time to provide them with fighter jets.
I am sure there is a way to make sure those jets don’t go over into Russian territory. But with such weapons, the direction of this war can be turned around.
Ukraine, with enough weapons, can beat back Russia. We should let them do so.
If Putin is humiliated by the defeat of his forces, good. He deserves it.
We should not give less arms to Ukrainians to ensure Putin can save face and say to his people, ‘well, we did gain some territory. As to the rest of Ukraine, let’s pause for now and invade again next year.’
Now is the time to let Ukraine win.
Putin should not.

Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts