Russian troops in the eastern section of Ukraine continue to push to encircle Ukraine’s forces. Should it happen, Ukraine would lose a significant portion of its army. I read that the leaders of France and Germany, Macron and Scholz, have spoken to Putin and that he’s shown interest in peace talks. But to think that the Russian would cede the territory he’s earned is sheer denial of the facts. With such a deal he could turn to his people and say, ‘we now have most of southern Ukraine and more of the East. We pause now, resume later.’ And he’ll speak with the same assurance of Russian leaders who offered security guarantees to Ukraine when they gave up their nuclear weapons in the 90s, only to violate them later. The sanctions imposed by the West are biting. Putin’s army is short of men, thus the decision to increase the upper age limit to conscription from 30 to 40 years old. It’s in Ukraine’s best interest that the war be short for they are fighting in their land and suffering all manner of losses. And it’s in our best interest too. But we need to push harder. I was pleased to hear that a large aid package to Ukraine was approved with bipartisan support, and that Biden is about to send more weapons, i.e. MLRS, multiple launch rocket systems to Ukraine. But it may not be enough. So why not give aircraft to the Ukrainians, fighter jets they can use to push back Russia in the East and elsewhere? Would this be seen as an escalation on the part of the West? Yes. But is Russia fighting in Ukraine with an army equal to theirs? No. So is it fair for Russia to have all the advantages and for Ukrainian soldiers to be supermen and beat back the Russians with fewer numbers and weapons? No. While Ukraine has the will to fight, the West, not just the US, should give them what they need. This is the time. Will the giving of aircraft push Putin to threaten nuclear weapons? Maybe, but I don’t think so. By now his posturing has been degraded. And just how will he threaten with his nuclear weapons? Will he threaten to use them in Ukraine itself, or will he threaten to fire on the West? The resolve the West has shown in support of Ukraine tells Putin that we are not intimidated. He has nuclear weapons and so do we. Putin is not crazy. He likes remaining in control of his country which by now, after 20 years of his leadership, has become emotionally impoverished and accustomed to bowing to the ‘great’ leader. Accustomed also, to seeing their emerging leaders, like Alexei Navalny, be treated like criminals. Navalny just had his prison term extended on trumped up charges. What this war has shown, is that Putin is no match for the West. China is seeing the drama unfold and is having second thoughts about betting on Vladimir. Having become an accomplice of Putin has eroded China’s prestige in the world. And should they catch wind that Putin wanted to use nuclear weapons, they would be the first to tell him, ‘Don’t. For if you do, the West will answer, hit you and hit us too.’ Ukraine needs planes to win this war.
Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.
The war is settling into a slow, painful grind. Russia is concentrating in the East but have made gains in the southern border.
A protracted war is likely to end with an advantage for Russia, since they have access to more fighting materiel.
Which brings up the matter of how much more assistance to give Ukraine.
So far the West has been careful to not provide Ukrainians with more sophisticated weaponry, the kind capable of inflicting more serious damage to Russia.
One of the worries has been that the aid provided not be of such quantity or quality to put the West in the category of co combatant.
But that’s a definition that Putin came up with and imposed on us.
The undisputed pluck of the Ukrainian people have done all they can with what they have.
Can they have more?
Can they have planes?
Providing them would give Ukraine a chance of beating the Russians more quickly.
The war would escalate but the chances of Ukraine booting the Russians completely out of their territory would increase.
The big question is what would Putin do?
There’s no question that he’s fully committed to the conquest of their neighbor, but would he follow through with the threat of using nuclear weapons? I think the time has come when we must confront him on this.
The atrocities committed by Russians give the West the higher moral ground.
I recall Biden stating that he would draw a line on the use of chemical weapons. So too with nuclear weapons.
I think Putin’s threats must be confronted.
And we should make it clear too that, should there be a nuclear confrontation, China would be a target of ours also.
This would make China intercede with Putin to dissuade him from using the nuclear weapons.
Ukraine’s resolve will not last forever. For all the help they’re getting from the West they have limited manpower, much less than Russia, which has recently raised the age for enlistment in their army.
We should make it clear that our objectives are not regime change in Russia. That’s for Russians to do. But they should leave Ukraine entirely.
Will congress approve that stance?
Chances are they will. Mitch McConnell and company has supported the 40 billion package aid recently passed.
Russia is becoming more and more isolated. They’re lacking parts for their weaponry that need to come from the West and that will hurt.
Here in America we’re struggling with inflation and supply chain constraints, but the war looms large over everything.
One other point. I agree that it should be up to Ukrainians if they wish to negotiate a cease fire.
It’s their blood being shed, their land being ravaged and they have limits.
Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts
A recent article in the WSJ coauthored by former senator Joe Liebermann, addressed the matter. Here I add my thoughts. Recep Erdogan, Turkey’s president, has been in power for years but could not get his nation into the European Union. His governing style has not measured up to their standards. But now that Finland and Sweden have asked to be part of NATO, he has become the one party in the entire organization to block the two nations’ desires. Erdogan has not applied the sanctions against Russia most of the EU – except for Hungary – have enforced. Yet he likes to see himself as a mediator that could deliver the deal that will put an end to the war. He won’t. As an autocrat, convinced that he should reign in Turkey until his death, he shares much with Putin. So he has no clue as to what freedom is. He was useful to the EU in stemming the flow of Syrian refugees at the start of that nation’s civil war and got paid for it. Yet, now and then, he threatens to open the borders and let everyone through. Which puts the burden on the EU to find better solutions. One of Erdogan’s objections to Finland and Sweden’s bid to join NATO, is that there are Kurdish terrorist groups in both countries who are enemies of his regime. That is a good point. Why should any NATO nation host any terrorist group against another member nation? But does Erdogan and Turkey bear responsibility for creating the conditions that led to the formation of such groups? Turkey has a troubled history dealing with adversaries. At the start of WWI they killed thousands of Armenians, which president Biden, in 2021, on the 106th anniversary of the massacre, pronounced a genocide. The Kurds have been American allies in the war against ISIS in Syria, and that must be recognized. Still, support for any terrorist organization is a bad idea. Erdogan not only wants the Kurdish groups in Finland and Sweden expelled, but also wants to be allowed to buy American planes, a deal that has been held back because a few years ago, against NATO’s wishes, Turkey purchased a Russian missile system which raised concerns that sensitive information from the aircraft would end up in Russia’s hands. In spite of all of this, Turkey’s membership in NATO has continued. But now the invasion of Ukraine and the strong response of the West has changed everything. Erdogan never imagined that Biden and Europe would pull together into a solid bloc, except for Hungary. Russia’s atrocious invasion and disregard for human life have created a new power alignment. Finland and Sweden want to join it, but Turkey says no unless their conditions are met. However, in this new power alignment, as in any other, priorities are needed. And while Turkey’s concern about terrorist groups deserves full attention, it should not be enough to block Finland and Sweden’s admission. Turkey’s history of silencing the opposition is not compatible with a democracy. Thus, I agree with the view that it should not have the privilege of barring democracies from joining and expanding NATO.
Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts
The massive loss of life that Putin has unleashed has its roots in a set of emotional perceptions. Yet I am almost sure, that none of the heads of state who have attempted to mediate with the Russian, have asked him, ‘why are you afraid?’ or ‘are you envious of the West?’ Putin would deny he was. Acknowledging our emotions is not easy but the cost of not doing so is enormous. Putin has said that NATO is threatening Russia although NATO’s reason for being is to protect against Russian attacks. And there have been plenty of those. It was Russia, or the Soviet Union before it, that invaded Ukraine in 2014 (annexing Crimea), Georgia in 2008, Chechnya in the 1990s and again in the first decade of this century, Czechoslovakia in 1968, Hungary in 1956. To justify the present invasion, Putin has insisted that Ukraine is a threat to him and to Russia. He did not have the personal strength to say, ‘I am afraid that if Ukrainians leave my world and take up the customs of the West – with their ways of thinking and behaving – they will set a bad example for all the peoples I have intimidated into submission. And because I am afraid, I must kill the wayward Ukrainians.’ But what is there to be afraid of? Freedom. Freedom is central to the language of emotions. If there is no freedom or if it is restricted, so are the emotions we can express. We read, go to the theatre, watch movies, so we can see other ranges of emotional expression and help expand ours. Under political repression, only the outward expression of emotions and ideas are restricted. Inside our minds we can still think and feel what we wish. But over time, the restricted possibilities of outward expression end up constricting our thoughts and feelings. Fear does that. And so life is diminished and devalued. Which is how autocrats and dictators rule. It is happening In Russia, in China, in Myanmar, in Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Egypt. They restrict the freedom of others so those doing the intimidation can have more privileges than the rest. Restriction of freedom leads to the narrowing of our emotional world. The fact that Putin rules Russia and its subordinate territories (the word nation does not currently fit Belarus) does not mean that he is doing so with the consent of the people. If there isn’t freedom of expression in a nation, then such rule lacks legitimacy. Legitimacy is not earned by force of arms or intimidation. Thus, Putin is not the legitimate leader of Russia. Instead, he is the expression of a people who has lost its voice and so become emotionally crippled because of not exercising their political freedoms. I predict that soon there will be a revolution in Russia. There will be because of the following: One – Russians are an educated and capable people who, in comparison to the rest of the world, are underperforming. They know it and it hurts. Two – the incongruency between their level of sophistication and the brutality they’re being asked to carry out in Ukraine is too large. Three – they will come to acknowledge that their political passivity is what made possible a despot like Putin. Four – Russians will recognize that they allowed Putin to numb their emotional world and so gave themselves permission to live in fear of the tyrant. The wholesale destruction of lives and property currently under way in Ukraine, is happening in a world that is the most interconnected there has ever been. Everything is on display. Nothing can be hidden that won’t surface shortly thereafter. In consequence, our emotions are heightened. Such richness is essential to freedom. Putin can hide from Russians the atrocities in Ukraine for only so long. Soon enough, all the details of the carnage will be known to everyone. And then Russians will come to accept that, in their passivity, they became Putin’s accomplices. Which is why they will revolt. With the continued support of the West, and Russians’ challenge of Putin from within, Ukraine will push Russia out of their territory. And the two nations will be good neighbors and prosper. In this day, when talks of mediation between warrying parties take place, the matter of freedom should be on the table.
Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts
He woke up, startled. The windowless room was dark. His girlfriend who’d stayed with him the evening before didn’t spend the night because she had some matters to address early the next morning. At first he didn’t remember anything that had disturbed his sleep but he knew something had. His body was sweaty and he didn’t feel right. He swung his legs off the bed, turned on the lamp on the nightstand and stood up. He checked the time. It was 2:50 AM. Which meant he’d slept about three hours. He crossed to the table at the center of the room and sat down. Leaning forward, he put his face in his hands. Whatever it was that was disturbing him, would soon come back. That’s how it was with him. Upon awakening he wouldn’t remember his dreams but after a short while some trace of them would come back and then he would be able to reconstruct it. Now he thought of America. Next the sanctions they had been imposing on him. Then of Zelensky. And it hit him. He had lost Ukraine. He shuddered. He straightened up in his chair and put his arms around himself. ‘Fuckers!’ ‘Goddamn fuckers!’ He said loudly. Ukrainian forces had killed 12 of his generals. They were using intelligence from the West to find and kill them. ‘Bastards!’ He had never, not even once, imagined that Ukrainians would have it in them to fight as they had. Not just to fight but to raise the hope that they might push back the mighty Russian army. The mighty force he’d used to threaten the world. Now Finland was thinking of joining NATO. Sweden might follow. ‘Assholes!’ Worst of all was that he had lost the respect of the West. He’d talked of his nuclear arms, always threatening with firing them… and now the West wasn’t scared anymore. They had gone from the wary and respectful, ‘we don’t want to use the weapons because it will be Armageddon’, to the impudent ‘screw you, Putin, if you use them, we’ll use them. We’re on to you, sucker! We won’t put up with your intimidation and bullying behavior. We’re fed up with it!’ ‘Bastards!’ And nowhere was it more evident than in their invigorated push to arm Ukraine. The turning point had been Ukraine’s pluck. It was their moxie, their determination, that had convinced the West that they were worth betting on, that they could be used to get to him, because that’s all what it was, getting to him. All the talk about freedom was bullshit. All they wanted was to unseat him, so they could get some puppet of their own in power and so expand their markets. That’s all it was. He sat up in his chair. He didn’t like losing. And yet… maybe… Ukrainians were really fighting for their freedom and he had not got it. He was so used to intimidating his fellow Russians that he thought he could intimidate everyone. And why not? He had got away with intimidating Donald Trump, the American president. It had been a subtle job but he had done it. He was proud of it. But then this two bit Senator from Delaware came in to mess up his plans. A nothing senator from a nothing state who had been Obama’s vice president only because Obama needed a white face to persuade Americans that the institution of the White House wasn’t going to the dogs. And where the hell did Biden get his gumption? To call, him – Vladimir Putin – a killer on national television. To accuse him of being a war criminal. To have the confidence to rally a divided Europe. To convince Germany to give up its neutral stance. Was that really Biden, or was it some cabal of billionaires telling him what to do? ‘Fuck them all!’ He shook his head disconsolately as he felt very sad. He was losing Ukraine… Ukraine… a dear part of the great Russia… losing it to the West. His eyes moistened and he felt like crying. He had had his mind set on conquering the whole of Ukraine. Annexing Crimea in 2014 had been the start. Followed by his support of the separatists in the Donbas area and in Transnistria in Moldova. And now he was in danger of losing it all. And everything had begun with Zelensky. Which reminded him, he had to talk to Lavrov, his foreign minister. That hadn’t been wise, to call Zelensky a Hitler. A Nazi, yes, that was part of the plan, but a Hitler? It was too much. He was feeling a little better now. Thinking about things had helped. All was not lost… not yet. He could still… if he really wanted… use tactical nuclear weapons… drop them on Kyiv… wipe out 100,000 residents, including Zelensky and company. Xi Jinping in China would understand. And so would Narendra Modi in India. Retaining power calls for drastic actions. He was not stepping down, that was certain. He had Russians by the throat. He liked it that way. But the movement to go to the West had to stop. Belarus would not be next. It would not. If Lukashenko couldn’t hold the fort, then he’d invade Belarus and squash the resistance, do whatever he had to do. And he now worried that as the bodies of dead Russians returned home from Ukraine, the support of the people would start to weaken. He didn’t know how the war would end. But whereas before he had been unwilling to compromise, now he was. Still, he needed to show something for his effort… for all those generals and soldiers killed… all those tanks and planes and equipment destroyed. But he had to show something. Unless he chose to nuke Kyiv. But where in the world could he go after that? And what would the West do in retaliation? He rubbed his face and paused. Then, as he opened his eyes slowly, he saw in his mind’s eye an image of Kyiv after being rebuilt by the West. And the city looked so modern and resplendent. And then he saw a new Mariupol, a new Kherson, Kharkiv, Irpin… all brilliantly redone, because the West wanted to shame him, to entice the rest of his Russia to turn away from him.
Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.
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He’s sitting in his bunker, facing a row of telephones and a wall covered with TV monitors showing scenes of his troops’ movements and the devastation of the war. But he is restless. The war is not going the way he wanted. Now all lights go off and the windowless room turns pitch black. He is startled. This has never happened before. He presses the emergency button to call for help but there’s no response. Is he under attack? He gets up, cautiously, and finds his way to the door. It’s locked. Furious, he calls out for assistance as he turns the knob, repeatedly, but nothing gives. ‘I have to be calm,’ he says to himself. ‘Where’s my gun?’ In the darkness, he moves slowly back in the direction of his desk and after a moment reaches it. He opens a drawer to his right and finds the gun. He takes it out and lays it on the desk. ‘The power should come back any moment,’ he tells himself. Now the faint glimmer of a light appears behind him. He quickly turns around and points the gun at it. The light emanates from a small golden colored orb that dims and brightens as it grows in size. Putin holds the gun with both his hands, aiming it directly at the orb. ‘Stop!’ he cries out. But the orb keeps enlarging slowly, while dimming and brightening. Putin fires a shot directly into it. The orb is not altered. ‘Vladimir…’ says the orb with a soft, gentle voice. Putin is frightened. ‘Why are you killing?’ Putin fires again, to no avail. ‘Men, women and children who have done nothing to you…’ Putin fires another round. Now the luminous orb starts to rise slowly, suspended in the air. Putin quickly gets out of his chair and goes under his desk, the gun pointed at the orb. The orb advances slightly and Putin fires another round. But nothing stops the orb. Panicking, he fires off the rest of his bullets, and when there are no more rounds he tries to get out from under the desk but finds that he cannot. Something is blocking him. Something he cannot see. The orb advances as it enlarges its size, the golden light dimming and brightening. Then the orb stops. ‘Why, Vladimir?’ asks the orb. ‘They were threatening me, they were threatening Russia!’ ‘No, they were not… you made that up… made that up to build yourself up… build yourself up because your country has been failing.’ ‘We are not failing!’ cries out Putin in desperation as he tries to free himself from something invisible that is keeping him pinned under the desk. ‘Yes, you are. Sadly, what you’re best at is making guns, weapons, rockets… to kill people… don’t you think Russians are much better than that?’ ‘Yes, we are! This is all part of a plan to rebuild the great Russian empire. This is the first step to then conquer the world!’ ‘You mean to destroy the world…’ answers the orb, ‘because all you leave in your path is death and destruction, Vladimir, nothing else.’ ‘Who are you?’ asks Putin, crouched under his desk. ‘Who do you think I am?’ replies the orb. ‘My conscience?’ ‘I am God, Vladimir.’ Putin laughs, derisively. ‘God, you say, what hogwash.’ ‘I get that all the time…’ returns the orb. ‘Prove it to me!’ cries an emboldened Putin. ‘I don’t play those games but suffice it to say you’re not going anywhere until I say so.’ Putin tries again to free himself from the invisible binds holding him under the desk but cannot. ‘Fuck you!’ shouts Putin. The orb says nothing for a moment, then, ‘there’s nothing musical about that word… try something else…’ ‘If you were really God, then why did you let the war happen? Why did you let all those people get killed?’ ‘Good point,’ says the orb. ‘I’m not all powerful as some believe… I can’t stop human beings from killing each other… but what I can do, is remind everyone that hope and kindness are the only way forward… for that is the fountain of our creativity… of human beings’ capacity to improve the world.’ ‘Hogwash!’ says, Putin. ‘You’re an impostor. I don’t know what tricks you’re using but I’ll figure it out and deal with you.’ ‘Vladimir…’ starts the orb patiently… ‘President Putin to you! Blasphemer! Idiot!’ ‘Vladimir…’ trying again… ‘I have come to help you. You’ve already made yourself an outcast… your cruelty has already branded you…’ ‘You can’t send me to hell?’ responds Putin, mockingly. ‘You are in hell, already… because that’s what Ukraine is now, a living hell that you created.’ ‘Get out! I don’t want to talk to you! Charlatan!’ ‘I come…’ resumes the orb, patiently, ‘because you are losing the war and may want to use nuclear weapons. That’s why I’m here. Please listen to me… the world will not let you use nuclear or chemical weapons on Ukrainians without responding. And between America and Europe, they have enough to wipe you out.’ ‘Ha! I have my rockets pointed at Washington and London and Los Angeles and Houston and Dallas and New York. I’ll obliterate them! I may not destroy everything but I’ll get most of it. And that’ll be enough for me.’ ‘You think you’ll survive?’ ‘I don’t care.’ ‘That’s a lot of cities, you mentioned… but they’ll fire back and aim directly at Moscow and St Petersburg… so there’ll be nothing left. And if you survive, what will you tell your followers, as they stand in rags before you, burnt from radioactivity? You’ll tell them that’s the first step to building the new Russian empire? Vladimir, they’ll grab you and cut you into little pieces.’ ‘At least I’ll have the satisfaction that I destroyed the West. And I will have opened the path for China to be number one in the world.’ ‘Small consolation for a man who wanted to build the Russian empire. I hear a desperate man, envious of the West and afraid…’ says the orb, patiently. Putin again tries to free himself but cannot. ‘Let me out!’ ‘Settle down, you little prick!’ snaps the orb impatiently. Putin laughs. ‘You’re not God.’ ‘I lose my temper, too. Now listen to me, there’s still a way out for you. And you can save your skin. Your wounded pride you’ll have to lick for the rest of your life but you can at least, live.’ ‘Which way out?’ says Putin, showing interest. ‘Walk away.’ Putin is silent. ‘Admit your mistake and walk away.’ ‘And give up Ukraine?’ ‘It was never yours. They don’t want you there.’ ‘What about Crimea, the new republics in Donbas?’ ‘Let them decide their fate democratically, with the vote.’ ‘I’ll never do that,’ says Putin as he looks away, shaking his head, glumly.
Silence follows.
Putin again, ‘You think Russians will forgive me?’ ‘Yes… if you stop making mistakes. Sanctions will be lifted and you’ll have another try at building a nation.’ ‘I think I’ve gone too far, already.’ ‘The mothers of those soldiers who return alive will be forever grateful.’ ‘I’ll still get a chance to go to Heaven?’ asks Putin. The orb thinks about it for a moment. ‘Vladimir… I’ve been God for a while now, and I still can’t find where Heaven is. I think it’s right here on earth. It’s here every day of our lives… you see it in human beings’ kindness, generosity, eternal hope… and undying quest for excellence.’ ‘And hell?’ ‘Right here, too. In illness, violence, poverty… in innocent people serving sentences in prison… and what you’re doing in Ukraine.’ Putin, dejected, shaking his head slowly. ‘You think I fucked up?’ ‘You did. But really big men recognize their flaws.’
The orb and Putin look at each other for a moment.
‘I’ve said my piece… you’re free to go now,’ says the orb.
Putin finds he’s no longer bound and is able to get out from under the desk. He stands facing the orb.
‘Do I get to see you again?’ asks Putin. ‘You never know,’ replies the orb. And then it disappears. The lights in the room come up and all the equipment is back working.
Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.
By virtue of its courage, its tenacity in the battlefield, Ukraine is becoming a NATO nation. The men, women and children who have died in their heroic quest Are clear testament that the proud nation Is becoming a NATO nation. As the world witnesses the atrocities committed by Russians, Day after day, Ukraine, with its valiant stand for their right to choose their destiny Is becoming a NATO nation. We will not be conquered! They cry out confidently. We will not surrender! They affirm with vigor, Even as the Russian missiles fly into their residences, their schools, their hospitals, While Putin, comfortably in Moscow, Reviews the damage. ‘Not enough!’ he says, ‘we need more. More dead, more wounded, more destruction, Until they come begging to me, kneel before me and plead for relief.’ But Ukrainians are not asking for an audience with the murderous man, They are asking for more and more weapons and support from the West, So they can fight on, So they can defend their land, A land which has now transformed itself into a symbol of freedom For the rest of the world, A symbol of freedom for all those peoples who now tolerate The repressive rule of their dictators, Nations like China and wherever else autocrats and despots live. Ukraine’s quest is for victory or death, And as they struggle on against the brutality that Russia embodies, They cover themselves with glory While Russia debases itself with shame. No more talk of neutrality! A nation that has bled so much cannot settle for a silent voice. They are risking it all, everything, for their right to be who they are. While in Russia, millions of people, Watching sheepishly on TV the version that Putin chooses to feed them, Afraid to question, Become accomplices in a grand massacre of fellow Slavs. Sooner or later, Putin, as he is defeated in the battlefield, Will choose to use chemical or nuclear weapons on the Ukrainian people, To exterminate them, With the consent of China – who has practice with genocide – and all the autocrats of this world, And the West will say NO! For Ukraine, with its grand affirmation of their right to be free, With all the death and damage they have endured, With all the valor they have shown, Has now become a NATO nation.
Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts
This threat has been made often since the start of the invasion, with Putin arguing that the West is using Ukraine as a proxy against him and his people. But it is Putin and Russia, who in assaulting Ukraine, are assaulting the West. If Ukraine had meekly said, ‘Oh yes, we really want to be like Russians, we love how you live, how you bow daily to your great leader, so go ahead Putin, we gladly surrender to you, too,’ then we wouldn’t be having this problem. But they did not. Instead, Ukrainians have sacrificed thousands of lives, endured immense destruction of what they have built, all for the sake of a future different than life under the Russian boot. Russia, except for those who have had the courage of dissenting, has become a symbol of brutality to the world. Whatever your contributions to the world, they now pale next to the pain and suffering you are willfully inflicting on others. How can you erase that from the conscience of our civilization? You cannot. And so it becomes your curse. Russia’s curse. If Putin or his foreign minister or whatever other stooge, repeats the threat that they may be forced to use nuclear weapons if the West continues to arm Ukraine, then we will deal with it. Because giving in to Russia in Ukraine is giving in to Russia anywhere. So the threat to use nuclear weapons becomes worthless. Knowing the intensity of Russia’s cruelty is good enough for us. We see it every day. We know you are capable of anything and that you don’t give a damn. We know you will fire those nuclear weapons and kill hundreds of thousands of people. All of Russia, exception made of those who have had the courage to dissent, are now part of an assault on the West and the rest of the world. Somehow, you, along with the Chinese, have come to believe that you are a gift to the rest of us. You are not. We have no desire to be like you. You are an example to no one. If you want the war to stop, you need to pull back into your territory. Rest assured that we will not go after you. But if you don’t, we will keep arming Ukraine, and whoever else is willing to resist you. And we will provide better weapons, even start sending planes, whatever it takes to defeat you. Because we don’t think your brutality will ever stop. It appears to not be in you to do so. The rest of the world will have to learn how to live without your oil and gas and other commodities. So we will invent. We will create. By now we know that if we give up in Ukraine, we will give up in Poland, or in Rumania or in Finland or Sweden or wherever else. So go ahead and make all the threats you want. We are ready for them. For we will keep arming Ukraine until we win this war.
Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts
He is in his bunker somewhere near Moscow. Various video monitors mounted on the wall are showing footage of the damage done by the attack of two Ukrainian helicopters on Belgorod, Russian territory located just north of Kharkiv. ‘They attacked Russian soil! How dare they!’ The video shows several oil tanks in flames. ‘Attacking my land, my sacred grounds!’ Putin trembles in his rage. ‘What happened to our air defenses? How was this possible? If they did it once, they will do it again!’ He is standing in front of his desk, looking in disbelief at the video of the attack being replayed. ‘Zelensky will pay for this. Once I capture him, because I will do that, I will put him on trial. And he will pay. The world will be clamoring for me to be merciful but I will not.’ Putin slams his fist on the table. ‘What the hell happened to my army? I’ve spent years and years building it up and now they don’t deliver. Who is responsible? I’m having to call up more and more men for military service. I’m having to ask Syrian fighters to join in to kill Ukrainians. I’m having to call up the Wagner group too.’ He shakes his head slowly as he looks down at the table. ‘It doesn’t look good… me… Vladimir Putin… asking Assad for help.’ He rubs his face.
‘Will I even conquer all of Ukraine? How can I live with myself with less than total control over it?’ He sits down, the mood despondent. ‘I was wrong… instead of riding victorious into Kyiv… instead of people calling my name in adoration… throwing flowers at my armored limousine, I’m now looking at the possibility of having to negotiate a peace treaty. With a comedian! Me, a great political leader! Oh, the irony of it all. What a twist of fate!’ He leans forward in his chair, clasping his hands, the anger palpable and a growing sense of self reproach. ‘It’s the fault of the Americans. Yes… Biden. Him. And I made too much of Trump… thinking that he represented America… thinking that he was the epitome of their decline… that the January 6th assault on the capitol was a clear sign they were rotten to the core… weak… morally dissolute… reveling in vice.’
He stands abruptly and walks a few paces then stops for a moment. Something is deeply wrong. He returns to his desk, presses a button on a console and images of him addressing a crowd of adoring fans at a stadium in Moscow appear on the screens. The sight eases his tension as if hope had returned. ‘No. I’m okay. I’m all right. They still love me. God has not abandoned me. God is with me. And I will redouble my efforts. I will conquer all of Ukraine. And I will force the West to take my rubles for our oil.’ He laughs loudly, feeling victorious. ‘That was a great strategy of mine. How I made Europe dependent on our oil and gas. How I made them kneel for it. Brilliant.’
But his expression now turns somber. ‘Can I recover…? In the eyes of the world… can I redeem myself? In the eyes of China, can I, once again, look strong?’ He shakes his head slowly… in disbelief… as if acknowledging the loss. ‘Is this the beginning of my end… with the whole world watching? No… it can’t be.’ He reaches for the console and switches back on images of his troops and tanks riding into Ukraine on February 24th, the first day of the invasion. He smiles with relief. ‘There it is… my power… Russia’s power… it’s not gone… I see it… the fullness of my power… everybody sees it… I know it’s still there… it’s not gone away… it’s there… yes… it’s not over… it can’t be… I still have a hand to play… Putin is not gone…’ But he hesitates. Doubtful. ‘If it’s gone… really gone… then… I can still… yes…’ He turns around, away from the cameras, hands clenched into fists. ‘America will not defeat me. They will not. We will both go down in flames… and just who will stop me?’
Oscar Valdes Oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts.
It took the Ukrainian invasion and the fierce resistance it has prompted, for the nations of Europe to stand firm with America against the barbarism of Putin. The Ukrainian people, long in the shadow of Russia, decided it had seen enough. It would not applaud the invading Russians but fight them. And fight them to the end. That heroism has elicited a new vigor in the West.
The cruelty Putin has unleashed on the Ukrainian people will not go unpunished. It will not be forgotten. The lies Putin has used to justify his actions will forever remind us of the lies all autocracies or dictatorships use to justify their oppression. By virtue of the ubiquity of cameras the invasion and its consequences have been thoroughly documented, making it one of the most public wars. And that evidence will not be buried with the dead but forever stand to remind us of the price of freedom. Putin, of course, has tried to hide all of it from his people. But his days are numbered. The Russian people are now asking themselves, ‘is this violence not being inflicted on us too? By denying us freedom of speech and thought?’ And that stark reality will bring unease to their consciences and so move them to assert the fullness of their existences.
Sooner or later, Putin will fall. And it will be the Russian people who will bring him down. He knows he is losing the war. He knows he has nowhere to go and hide. It is a matter of time before he is set aside by his own people. China, meanwhile, has refused to condemn the invasion. But their leadership is accustomed to denying their own people their voice. What else could we expect from their autocrats? The influx of weapons from the West has made a huge difference in the fierce Ukrainian resistance and so, too, the fact that the mighty Russian army has not been all that mighty. Their advance has proven difficult and the likelihood is that it will need more and more resources to complete the conquest of Ukraine, raising the possibility that Russia will not have the capability of doing so. A diminished Putin will be tempted to resort to chemical weapons and even nuclear ones. This would escalate the war with uncertain consequences.
Earlier today, in Brussels for a meeting with NATO partners, a confident president Biden said that if Putin used chemical weapons against the Ukrainian people, NATO would respond. Putin will likely challenge that position and use such weapons. The same way that Assad in Syria challenged president Obama’s drawing a red line intended to bar the weapons. In our confidence, we must not forget caution. Putin is a failed man but as long as his people don’t rebel against him, he can unleash horrible weapons. So we must watch our language. Putin has little to lose at this stage. But we do. With this catastrophic performance, not only Ukraine but other nations now under his influence will turn toward the West. That, we can be confident about. I say that Belarus is next.
Oscar Valdes, oscarvaldes.net, medium.com, anchor.fm, buzzsprout, apple and google podcasts
Oscar Valdes 