oscar valdes

The Upcoming Elections. Educate the Voter

It’s always hard to predict the outcome, no matter what the polls say. We only need to remember how the forecasters were so wrong about Hillary Clinton in 2016.
What I find surprising is how little pull with the voters does the war in Ukraine seems to have.
Sure, there is inflation affecting living costs and perhaps there will be recession in the next 6-12 months and perhaps not.
But why is the war in Ukraine not a key driving force for the American voter?
Months ago I posted a blog – which I sent to president Biden (probably didn’t get through) – asking that the war in Ukraine be sold to the American public.
Sold as in, ‘Listen up, Americans, our nation is doing a terrific job in arming Ukrainians so they can push back the assassin that Putin is, and so help the world prevent other invasions and more cruelty. Listen up, Americans, we have been able to play a decisive role in uniting the West to stem Russia and its accomplices from dividing up the world and expanding their dictatorial powers. The work the West has done has been transformative. Now Ukraine is part of the West. And they have become part of us through their courage and sacrifice. Ukrainians will forever be grateful that the American people gave of themselves so generously by sending them weapons to fight back Putin.’
If Biden and co. has, in effect, sold the war to the American people, then I missed it.
It should have been front and center.
‘Fellow Americans, I know that we’re going through a rough patch with inflation and gas prices but keep the big picture in mind. Our nation is spreading freedom throughout the world.
I ask that you be forgiving if you’re having some difficulties with food and gas prices. But think of the big picture. Of the moral courage we have built.’
If that went out, I missed it, too.
I can hear political advisers saying, ‘Ukraine is too far away, it won’t resonate with the voter who’s feeling pinched by gas prices. Our voters just don’t think that far ahead.’
Are we not underestimating the voter? Are we missing an opportunity to educate?
Shouldn’t elections be about that?
Yesterday I read an article in the WSJ talking of how we’re spending less than we should on defense and consequently our combat strength has diminished.
Why wait until a crisis catches us unprepared? That’s also part of educating the voter.
I understand that immigration is an issue and that it needs fixing. But it can’t be done without bipartisan support. Here again, the voter should be educated.
And why shy away from punching where the punching needs to be done?
The Republican party has been sorely lacking in courage, as when a significant number of their legislators have become mouthpieces for Mr Trump. If there had not been a Democratic majority in the House, then the commission to expose all what went wrong with the assault on the Capitol on January 6th 2021 would not have happened.
That’s part of educating the voter.
On this count, much credit goes to Liz Cheney, a Republican with much integrity and valor who, in standing up against Trump, lost her seat.
What’s wrong with going after Trump?
If Trump had been reelected in 2020, Putin would have had no trouble annexing Ukraine. A simple call to his friend in the White House would have sufficed. Trump would have answered, ‘Can you do it quickly, maybe overnight?’
Why is that not a valid point in these elections?
The willingness on the part of our politicians to not educate the voter is abysmal.
And all of us pay for it on election night.
We earn our freedom every day.

Oscarvaldes.medium.com

A Chinese and an American Talk Politics

The Chinese, Haitao, is a physicist, the American, Bill, a mathematician. They know each other from graduate school in the US. Haitao returned to Shanghai and is employed in cloud computing by a state owned enterprise, while Bill presently works in the Netherlands in a microchip manufacturing company. They ran into each other at a conference in London.
They sit at a table in a street side café.

Bill – The 20th Communist Party Congress has just started. You think Xi will be reelected for a third term?
Haitao – No doubt. He has done a great job cleaning out corruption and the people admire him.
My worry is that he is too autocratic.
Bill – He will go for a 4th term?
Haitao (laughs) – Probably. And a fifth. Will die in office, like his idol Mao.
Bill – You think China will keep growing the way it has?
Haitao – Yes. Maybe slow down a little but not much. One of the things we have found is a sense of purpose. You don’t have that.
Bill – You mean a sense of purpose as a nation?
Haitao – Exactly.
Bill – And what would that be?
Haitao – To become the dominant nation in the world.
Bill – Dominant?
Haitao – Yes. We want to be number one. And we’re willing to sacrifice our personal freedom.
I know freedom is very important to you, but most Chinese are willing to sacrifice it for a higher cause. We have never been number one. You have been number one for a long time. Now you take it for granted.
Bill – Our system allows for very diverse creativity, in many fields, and the limited governmental interference facilitates development. You’ve had enormous growth with companies like Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, but now the government has chosen to direct their future growth. Don’t you think that will end up having a negative impact on inventiveness?
Haitao – It could. The government is experimenting, so we have to wait and see. Xi has been very clear about the importance of shared prosperity. In America, you talk about that but are very slow to do it. You have Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security but it’s not enough. There’s a lot of poverty in America. We watch you very closely so we can learn from you. Learn what not to do.
Bill – The distribution of riches, how to do it well without diminishing the creative drive, has been a problem for us. We keep going back and forth on that but there is steady progress in strengthening the safety net.
Haitao – Europeans are ahead of you.
Bill – But there is a stronger enterprising drive in America.
Haitao – To what purpose?
Bill – To become all we can be… maximizing the person’s possibilities.
Haitao – See, that’s the difference between you and us. In China, we think more of the collective. You think more of the individual.
And because of that difference, we now have a national purpose, which you do not.
Bill – I disagree. We want to protect the individual’s liberty, their right to create and acquire wealth… and many wealthy people become philanthropists… and give their money to various causes…
Haitao – That is weak, compared to having a national purpose. The benefit of having such purpose is that it commits the citizens to the task and expects from them that they sacrifice for it. No other nation has progressed so fast in 40 years since Deng Xiaoping began China’s opening to the world. We have taken advantage of everything possible… borrowed and stolen, too… but we have created also… and we have now great confidence in our capacities… and faith that we will become the number one nation in the world very soon.
Bill – How soon?
Haitao – At our current pace, I’d say, in 15 years. Max.
Bill – That’s a short time.
Haitao – We are not afraid of you, anymore. We study you closely, and we see how you can’t agree on things. Your lack of national discipline is frightening. We now have a bigger navy than you do. We don’t want to be like you, anymore. We did before, but not now. We don’t have mass shootings in our country. We don’t have an immigration problem. We don’t have the homelessness that makes your cities ugly. We don’t have racial issues, or just a little bit, but not like you.
In our country, politics is orderly, in your country it’s a circus and a waste and money and energy and talent. It is pitiful to watch it.
Bill – And Taiwan?
Haitao – It’s ours. We will not make the mistake that Putin made in Ukraine. But Russia is a second rate power. When the leadership decides it’s time to take Taiwan, we’ll encircle it and take it. It will be quick. For you to intervene will be too costly, so you’ll stay away and curse your weakness.
Bill – You’re pretty cocky about your power?
Haitao – We will always be friends, Bill, but as a nation, the time for China to replace you as number one is fast approaching. You’ll just have to live with it.
Bill – I think you’re underestimating our strengths…
Haitao – America has grown too fat and overconfident.
Bill – We could surprise you… we’re known for coming together when we have to.
Haitao – There’s always that possibility… but you’re too divided… too angry at each other… too unwilling to compromise… and have shown very poor judgment in whom you elect as President. I’m not talking about Biden, he’s done a good job. But I couldn’t believe your country elected Donald Trump, then failed to impeach him, then let him incite an assault on Capitol Hill, and may reelect him again… or let Republicans win both houses in the midterms.
Something is deeply wrong with your country, and I don’t think you can fix it in time to stop our rise to world dominance. Now is our turn. Your time is past.

Oscarvaldes.medium.com

Putin, Stop Now!

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Retreat! Go home! You’ve lost this war.
Stop murdering people, Ukrainians and your own.
The West will not stop supporting Ukrainians and we will not surrender to you or anyone.
We are a free people.
Russians are not.
You have failed. But you don’t have the decency to own up to it, and instead want to sacrifice more of your own brothers and sisters, while firing more missiles to Ukraine to destroy all you can and massacre as many as possible.
Pause when you’re looking at yourself in the mirror. Look carefully. Yours is the face of inhumanity and cruelty.
There’s no way back for you. If you dreamt of being revered as a great leader, you failed.
And you failed because you thought you could own other human beings, strip them of free speech and command them to obey you instead.
Those who resisted, you poisoned, incarcerated or killed.
That is you who are.
You have built nothing. You think your nuclear weapons will save you?
They will not.
Because if we give in to you now, we will have to give in tomorrow.
If you fire your nuclear weapons we will fire back.
If New York burns, then Moscow will burn.
And the Chinese know that if that happens, then Shanghai and Beijing will burn too, for the West cannot allow China to be left intact, for they are your accomplices and they will take advantage to dominate everyone they can. That is who the Chinese are at this stage of their development.
Look at them, just starting a big convention to reelect their dictator, Xi Jinping, to another 4 years. They’re very proud of their accomplishments.
So they won’t let you ruin things for them.
If they see you eager to fire on the West, then they’ll turn their nuclear weapons and point them at you, to keep you from destroying what they’ve worked hard to build.
They will not let you drive them to destruction.
You could have done something very different with Russia, a nation with so much talent and so many natural resources. But your ego needed to be fed and you convinced Russians that was a national priority.
It has taken them a while to realize that such deal was costly and at their expense.
But there’s still time for you to stop committing atrocities.
I’m sure Russians will let you enjoy retirement in peace. But they must act now.
It could be anyone stepping up and saying, ‘enough!’
It could be a member of your personal guard, stepping up and saying, ‘You have caused so much destruction, this can’t go on.’
Anyone, please, act now. Russians, you started it. Now stop it.
We earn our freedom every day.

oscarvaldes.medium.com

Creators and Destroyers

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Both come into this world needing stimulation and nurture to be able to thrive.
From the start, the desire for friendship and love is felt by both.
Basic skills are soon acquired to function in the community.
But something begins to happen at about there.
The group one belongs to, has rules that should be followed to better manage the inevitable conflicts.
The Creator sees the benefit of it. The Destroyer starts to think, how can I get around them?
With the acquisition of work skills, the desire for personal autonomy gathers strength.
The realization that one need not be tied to one’s community of origin sets in and there is a large world out there that beckons.
Early in our existences two questions come forward to face us. What to do with our lives? What can we do best?
How we answer them will determine our futures.
The better responses will come if we’ve developed a good sense of self, which in turn flows from having had positive interactions with fellow human beings.
The Creator thinks in terms of improving themselves and earn the admiration of peers.
The Destroyer also thinks of their improvement, but with a twist – how to be feared and take advantage of others.
The Creator sees the need for deepening friendships.
The Destroyer sees the need for developing alliances.
I see envy as a key driver for the Destroyer. They asses, early on, that they are different, that they don’t have what Creators do but find that they can use them.
Shallow friendships would be the norm for the Destroyer, or else they’d betray their true nature.
While both busy themselves in the quest for advancement, the Destroyer never loses sight of
how to gain advantage over others.
Once Creators find a path for their strengths, they set about to improve themselves and, in doing so, enrich their communities by the services they render.
The Destroyer may have identified personal strengths they could develop, but what attracts them the most is the desire to manipulate and use people.
They may be aware of envy as a powerful motivator in their lives but, if they are, they choose to not wrestle with the emotion and learn how to manage it. The desire for control supersedes it.
Creators, in their commitment to their work, find meaning in their lives.
Destroyers may find meaning, too, but of a different kind, one filled with the power wrested from those who didn’t have the courage to follow their own paths.
In our world today, there are Destroyers in position of great influence. Some have become leaders of nations. Those who applaud them or have become their pawns, should ask themselves, ‘why did I choose to not find my own path? Now, each time I applaud the Destroyer I am saying, I am your accomplice, your vassal and instrument.’
Man earns his freedom every day.

Oscarvaldes.medium.com

A Chinese and Cuban Talk Choices

The Chinese (Chi) and the Cuban (C) return for their second meeting.

Chi – Make money for what, was the question, correct?
C – Yes.
Chi – I think of money as freedom. It lets me do what I want. But you can get trapped by it, too,
C – Trapped as in…?
Chi – Thinking that money is life itself.
C – Hmm.
Chi – If money is all you think about, well, then, you’re a poor rich person.

C laughs.

Chi – Most of us want to do this, that or the other. Money can let you do that.
C – Or you can watch it pile up.
Chi – There was an American businessman who traded in silver, two brothers in fact, the Hunt brothers if I remember correctly, from Texas, who said, ‘Money is like manure, if you spread it around it does a lot of good, but if you pile it up it stinks like hell.’
C – (smiling) You can’t buy life with it.
Chi – Well, it can get you great medical care if you need it, but a pile of it does not mean life well lived.
C – If a person does what they want with their lives, then you could say they are rich.
Chi – I agree.
C – But there has to be a great pleasure to know that you can make money whenever you need it. And have some to spare also. Just in case.
Chi – Yes. Money equals freedom. If you’re not a slave to it.
C – I have done many things with my life… but there are more things I’d like to do. Living in Cuba restricts my freedom.
Chi – That’s too bad.
C – Have you done what you want with your life?
Chi – I have not.
C – Would you call yourself rich?
Chi – No, but I have some money saved.
C – What are you saving it for?
Chi – I’d like to get married to a very good looking woman.
C – I see. Do you think that the more money you have, the more beautiful a woman you will attract?
Chi – (smiling) Yes.
C – That may be a problem.
Chi – Why?
C – Because she will be marrying for money.
Chi – Maybe. But this is how I see it. Having money works to attract the woman, then it’s up to me to see if we have a good fit. But if I don’t have the money, they won’t come close enough for me to see if we have a good fit.
C – Maybe that works. I would worry, though, that the person would pretend to have a good fit just so they get married.
Chi – The woman would have to be a good actor.
C – Would you like to be married to a good actor?
Chi – Good question. I never did think of it that way. Are you married?
C – No, but I’ve lived with the same woman for 21 years.
Chi – How did you attract your wife?
C – I still don’t know what she saw in me.

Chi laughs.

C – But she sees something because she’s still around. And I don’t even dance.
Chi – Cuban and you don’t dance?
C – Don’t dance or sing.
Chi – That’s funny.
C – But I’m a good listener… and she likes to talk. So I’ve listened to her for the last 21 years and she still wants to stick around.
Chi – Is she beautiful?
C – I think so.
Chi – Interesting. She became attracted to you just because you could listen.
C – Yes. And I was all right in bed. That was the bonus.

Chi laughs.

C – I mean, she’s never complained… and neither have I.
Chi – That’s funny.
C – Believe it or not, it keeps getting better.
Chi – You’re a lucky man.
C – I am. Poor but lucky.
Chi – Can money buy you good sex?
C – I don’t know. People are so different. Some need more, some less.
One of the characters in a novel by the Colombian writer Garcia Marquez says that ‘Sex is a talent.’ Some have it, some don’t.
Chi – Money can’t buy talent.
C – I think being able to make money is a talent. Some have it and some don’t. Goes back to the hierarchies you were talking about, at our first meeting.
Chi – Yes. And we can’t have everything we want.
C – That’s true.
Chi – We have to live with that… no matter how much money we make.
C – My wife and I have a good friend, Esmeralda, she’s a brilliant filmmaker. Teaches at the university. One day she will be famous. Neither my wife nor I have that talent.
Chi – Is she beautiful?
C – I think so.
Chi – Hmm. I would like to meet her.
C – Sure. Next time you’re in Cuba I’ll introduce you.
Chi -Thank you.
C – So, going back to what you said at the start… thinking of money as freedom.
Chi – Well… it has limitations… like everything else.
C – Do we fetishize money?
Chi – We do… but while it will not get you all you want… it will get you things you could not have otherwise.
C – Is it worth being obsessed with it?
Chi – No. Let me ask you… do you like what you do?
C – It’s okay. Would prefer to try something else.
Chi – Money would allow you time and space to explore.
C – We’ve agreed on that.
Chi – It won’t change your character… but it can buy you time.
C – I want to think of money in that way… buy me time… and the opportunity to make other choices… so I can be all I can be.
Chi – I like that. So, next time I’m in Havana, will you introduce me to Esmeralda?
C – Of course.
Chi – Thank you.

To be continued. This article was written on 9/14/20 but never posted. Got busy with something else. Original title was ‘A Chinese and Cuban Talk Politics. Part II’

Oscar Valdes is the author of several books – all self published – available on Amazon.

Oscarvaldes.medium.com

Biden, Arabs and City Councils

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Saudi Arabia chose to reduce their oil production by 2 million barrels per day at a time when energy prices are fueling worldwide inflation. The move leads to higher prices for oil and Russia will be a big beneficiary.
The action has stirred talk in Congress of retaliation against Saudi Arabia, such as stopping arms sales and removing weapons already in the country.
I think our response is myopic and wrong.
We have been buying less oil from the Saudis as we increased our gas production and now give greater support to renewables.
The Saudis, in turn, have been moving closer to Russia and China.
Like Turkey, they play both sides. India does it, too, but we’re not thinking of retaliating against them.
I think we should take the long view on the Saudis’ behavior.
They are a repressive regime that shares much with Russia and China yet wants to stay open to the West. Let’s not shut the doors. Changes are happening in Saudi Arabia which are, gradually, likely to move the country even closer to the West.
Iran is the problem in the area. Presently there is much unrest and a push to take the clerics out of government. When that happens, there will be a significant realignment of forces in the region.
An American presence that is open and forgiving will be in a better position to influence events.
Not rejoining the Iran Nuclear deal will be a positive development.
I understand Biden’s worry that the effects of the reduction in oil production by the Saudis may have an impact in the upcoming mid term elections by further increasing inflation. But this may be underestimating the American electorate.
The war in Ukraine and the Russian retreat are huge accomplishments for the West and Biden deserves a great deal of credit for it. It is there in plain view.
Are democrats selling this success to undecided voters and enlightened Republicans?
Freedom demands sacrifices and Biden may need to remind voters of it.
Inflation will top off in the near future and ending the war will play a big role.
But to get there we must keep our support for Ukraine going strong.
While a large number of Republicans remain loyal to former president Trump, even though he attempted to deny Biden the presidency and reinstate himself for another term, enough Republicans realize the damage done to the country and that their party needs to repair itself by confronting its antidemocratic side.
Under Trump, Ukraine would have been in Putin’s hands long ago, for Trump would not have objected to the invasion.

As to City Councils.
On Monday, in Los Angeles, a tape recording emerged of a private meeting held a year ago involving three city council members and a labor union chief. During the meeting, disparaging racial remarks were made.
There has been an outcry and demands that the council members step down. The union chief has already done so.
Yesterday, President Biden added his voice to the demands for council members’ resignation.
I think this response is too meddlesome.
Race is a complicated issue. The world is going through a transition dealing with it. Europe is roiled by immigration and race is a big factor.
To expect purity from our elected officials or from any of us is not rational.
People deserve chances to rectify their behaviors.
Additionally, this is a matter for Angelenos to sort out.
Mr Biden’s focus should stay on the big picture.

Oscarvaldes.medium.com

A Homicide Hotline

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With the high number of violent deaths in our country, Joan, 32, decides to interview some folks to get their opinions. She is troubled that whatever prevention is being done is not having noticeable effect.
Microphone and recorder in hand, she approaches a man standing at a corner in downtown Chicago, as he waits for the light to change.
Joan – Good afternoon, I’m doing research and would like your opinion…
Man – Sure.
Joan – Yesterday, across the nation, according to gunviolencearchive.org, 26 people were killed in the United States, have you thought of what we could do to lower that number?
Man – That is a lot of people. You googled the figures?
Joan – Yes, this morning. It may be higher by now.
Man – The first thing that comes to mind is, start with the family… teach the children to have good manners, to learn to listen to others… to not insult anyone… to bear your pain. I think that’s very important, to learn to bear our pain, because everyone has pain, but your pain is your pain, you can talk about it with another person, just don’t give it to them or anyone else.
Joan – What do you do for a living?
Man – I’m a bus driver, it’s my day off.
Joan – Thank you for your time.
Man – You’re welcome.
Joan – Do you use that thinking in your work?
Man – Oh, yes. Some people come in the bus in a mood, cursing, disrespectful… not all the time but I get my share. I think to myself, they’re having a bad day… who knows what just happened to them. So I’m patient, but sometimes it’s too much and I have to step in, because of the other riders, you know. So I address them politely but firmly. If they blow me off or carry on, I call the police.
Joan – How long have you been a bus driver?
Man – Fifteen years.
Joan – You like it?
Man (smiling) – I love my work. Getting people to where they need to be.
Joan – Do you think that having a homicide hotline would be helpful… an 800 number people could call if they felt like killing someone.
Man – Hmm. That’s a thought… the challenge would be to get people to trust… I mean, with technology today, the caller may be hesitant because they’d be afraid of being tracked.
Joan – Good point. I don’t have an answer for it. My theory is that, for many people, these feelings start small and because they’re not addressed, then they grow stronger over time before they get ready to pull the trigger. That’s the population a hotline would be targeting.
Man – There might be a technical solution so they’re not afraid of being tracked… but getting to homicidal impulses when they’re hatching, that makes sense to me.
Joan – Good.
Man – Still, if the caller has to give personal information to talk to someone, that will inhibit them.
Joan – An ideal homicide hotline should not require any personal information or the identity of the intended target. The caller would be connected to someone who listens to them and gets right to the heart of the matter. ‘Why do you want to kill this person? How long have you been thinking about it? You must be very angry, I can help you with that. Anger can be managed. You’re doing the right thing to talk about it because there are ways to deal with it… and spare your life as well as the other person’s.’
Man – Cool. Are you working for a foundation or something?
Joan – No, I’m studying anthropology and thought of doing something to stop Americans from killing each other.
Man – Would you propose it to the government, to get funded?’
Joan – I’d like to first reach out to the private sector… like the National Rifle Association.
Man (laughs) – It might work.
Joan – I’m looking to do a pilot program, staff it with volunteers…
Man – Really… I’d be interested… like on weekends… you’d have some training, right?
Joan – Of course. And I’d be glad to consider you for the job.
Man – It’s not the same but I deal with a lot of people on the edge, so I think I could help.
Joan – I’m sure you could.

Smiling pause.

Joan – Well, thank you for being so generous with your time. I’ve held you long enough. Please write down your name and number so I may contact you in the future when I get this off the ground.
Man – Homicide hotline, here we come!
Joan – Get right to it.
Man – Anthropology… I remember reading about an anthropologist, a woman, Margaret Mead.
Joan – Yes, she had a distinguished career.

He writes down his name and number in a piece of paper and hands it to her.

Joan – Thank you.

They shake hands.

Man – Tom Oliver. Pleasure meeting you.
Joan – Joan Mead. Pleasure meeting you as well.
Man – Mead… any relation to Margaret?
Joan – Spiritual.

Oscarvaldes.medium.com

Putin and Xi Talk Nuclear

The two men talk via video.

Putin – Ukrainians keep pushing us back.
Xi – I saw the video of the bombing of your bridge to Crimea.
Putin – Somehow, they got through and planted the bombs.
Xi – They’re getting better and better.
Putin – I will not surrender the East.
Xi – They may take it from you, drive you back to your borders.
I worry that the new soldiers you’ve called up may not be ready for the Ukrainians.
It could lead to a massacre of Russians.
Putin – Then I’ll use nuclear weapons.

Xi pauses, shifts his weight in his seat, looking uncomfortable.

Xi – Like I’ve told you before… it’s not a good idea. The West will respond.
Putin – I have top notch nuclear weapons.
Xi -That’s what you were saying about your army.
Putin (irritated) – You don’t believe me?
Xi – I want to… but I can’t deny the evidence… your army hasn’t delivered.
Putin – My nuclear weapons have been developed by the very best of my people.
Xi – Whether your weapons are good or bad, if you fire them, the West will shoot back… and the losses will be unbelievable.

Xi leans forward, looking Putin directly.

Xi – All because you’ve had this dream of creating a new Russia to surpass what the Soviet Union was.
But that is over, Vladimir. That is not going to happen. You must accept that.

Putting grimaces, displeased.

Xi – If your system were that effective, Russia would be much better off than it is now.

Putin looks off, his discomfort mounting.

Xi – With your human capital and natural resources,
Russia should up there with the top economies, say, rivalling Japan, but it is not. So what’s the point of extending a system that is not that effective?
Putin (firmly) – I will not give up on my dream.
Xi – I won’t pay for your dream.
Putin – I’m not asking you to.
Xi – Do you really think that if you use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the West will say, ‘Okay, we’ll just keep using conventional weapons while you fry us with nuclear ones.’
The way you’re going, desperate as you are, you may decide to hit Kyiv with a nuclear bomb. What do you think the response of the West will be? ‘Oh, he’s done it, he’s serious, let’s leave Ukraine and hope he doesn’t do it again!’
No. They are committed. They will hit your troops with nuclear weapons too and that will be the beginning of the end. The world paying for the price of your madness.

Putin winces. He’s never heard Xi say that to him.

Xi – You may decide you can get away with dropping a bomb on Warsaw or Berlin, maybe even Washington D.C. or New York.
But do you think that, should that happen, the West will spare China?
They will not.
Putin – Why not?
Xi – Because if the West is weakened, they will rightfully conclude that we’ll take advantage of it… grab Taiwan and ask Japan to submit.
Putin – You would do that?
Xi – If the West is weakened, if New York or Washington D.C. are burning, why not?
But they won’t let it happen.
If you decide to shoot at the West, they will respond and shoot at both you and us. I have no doubt.
Vladimir… we’ve worked very hard to get us to where we are… and we don’t want to see Shanghai or Beijing burning because of your madness.
Putin – My madness?
Xi – Yes.
That’s exactly what we’re all seeing. You hitting civilian targets indiscriminately…
Putin – They are killing my people.

Xi pauses, looks down for a moment, frustrated.

Xi (softly) – We’re all paying for it.
Putin (irritated) – How are you paying for it?
Xi – The world economy has weakened. There’s less demand for our products… inflation is growing globally… and then there’s the daily horror of people being killed… mass graves being found where your troops have been… I have done enough repression of my own… but this is too much.

Xi rubs his face, clearly uncomfortable.

Xi – Vladimir… if you’re thinking of going nuclear, then it’s time for you to go.
Putin – Go?

Putin seems confused. He shakes his head slowly.

Putin – I won’t.
Xi – Concede you have lost. Pull back from Ukraine entirely, even Crimea and the Donbas, everything… go back to your normal boundaries. No need for negotiations. No one will threaten your borders.
The West will go into Ukraine and rebuild it. I don’t think they’ll hold back the funds you have in the West. They will give you that back, so you can help your people.
Your test will be to regain Russians’ trust. It won’t be easy. You might face new challenges at home, but you will likely handle that.
Putin – You think it’s over for me?
Xi – Yes. You’ve chased out more than 250 thousand Russians after you announced a call to conscript 300 thousand reservists. It is time to pull back. Your people are getting tired of you… the world is too.
Putin – And you, you’re tired of me, too?
Xi – I will help you as best I can. Learn from this and rebuild Russia. You will never regain the status you had… but you could still be a player.
Putin (shaking his head) – No.
Xi – Don’t burden the world anymore. It’s time to go home.
Putin (feeling wounded) – You’re turning against me… I thought we would be friends forever… that I could always count on you…
Xi – You’re driving us to Hell.
But you can still retrench… and stay in power a while longer.

Putin lowers his head, disconsolate, wounded. After a moment, they hang up.

That same day, after an emergency meeting with the standing committee of the Politburo – a select group of seven leaders – Xi calls up Joe Biden in Washington for a top secret talk. He tells Biden how important it is to keep up the pressure on Putin. He doesn’t think Putin is mad and he would do his best to monitor the situation closely. But if things changed and Putin got close to using nuclear weapons in Ukraine or elsewhere, China would switch sides so that between the West and them, they would pressure Russia to stand down, retreat to behind their borders and so end the war.

Oscarvaldes.medium.com

The World is Changing Fast

The Russian Army is retreating – unthinkable a few weeks ago – and Saudi Arabia just said to Biden, ‘take a hike, we’ll do what we have to do to keep our coffers filled, and if we help Putin get wealthier, you’ll just have to live with it.’ And they added, ‘we know how important affordable gas prices are to you, with the mid term elections coming up and inflation running high, but business is business, and if Republicans take over congress, well, too bad. You should have bowed to us last time you visited, instead of just giving us the fist bump.’
Oh, Saudi Arabians and gulf states, you’re one of a kind.
If it weren’t for us the mullahs in Iran would long ago have swallowed you up, and you’d be kneeling before the ayatollahs, that blessed group of folks that the heavens sent us.
But all is not well there now either. Iranian women, who have long put up with the absurdity of having to live with the head scarves, have been taking to the streets in blatant defiance.
Something about freedom spurs them on. They have only one life to live so why defer to the ruling clerics?
My hope is that the movement they’ve started will keep growing until it overthrows the theocracy. What a wonderful message would they be sending to the world. ‘Rise, sisters, rise! If men don’t give a damn about our unfreedom, then we’ll fight the fight ourselves.’
The heroic battle for freedom in Ukraine deserves much credit for the ongoing changes.
They are inspiring people all over the world, telling us, ‘do not be intimidated, speak out, do not let others cow you into submission.’
Putin’s barbaric invasion has awakened the West. And the West is discovering powers it didn’t know it had. They’re discovering that they can cooperate, join forces, put up with hardships and learn from what mistakes they’ve made.
Neither Putin nor China thought the West could learn how to do so.
Of course, they had been encouraged to think that way by Donald Trump, who somehow got it into his head that America could become an island and live happily ever after.
Now a new balance of power is being forged.
The West and its allies are finding that they will be able to face down China and slowly begin to diminish whatever reliance they now have on them.
An official in Singapore said sometime ago, ‘we don’t want to have to choose between one side and the other.’ But they may have to.
The stronger the West, the more they will be an inspiration for the Chinese people now living under the oppressive rule of the communist party, with their insistence on suppression of free speech and constant surveillance. The communist party just can’t trust their own.
The Chinese are looking at the world and seeing the debacle in Russia. They ask themselves, ‘How come, when Putin calls for people to be enlisted, so many of them run for the border to escape being sent to fight in Ukraine? Isn’t there glory in fighting for your country?’
Not if you’ve not been allowed to have your own voice, like Putin has done in Russia and Xi Jinping is doing in China.
The powerful engines of the internet have helped spread the notion of freedom. Men and women all over the world want to hear their thoughts, want to hear the sound of what they think and share it with others. And they don’t want to live feeling intimidated by their leaders.
Instead, leaders of nations should be agents of change, people with the gift to free their brothers and sisters.
So fight on, brave Iranian women, fight on brave dissident Russians and dissident Chinese. Your time is now. No one should restrict your freedom.

Oscarvaldes.medium.com

Immigration. The Economic and the Cultural

Tough subject.
We are a nation of immigrants and should remain so, but there’s a lot of anger stirring on the subject.
Are we overpopulated? No.
Is there room for more people? Absolutely.
Who wants to keep the door open to new entrants? Business.
Who doesn’t want to? Those who perceive themselves as being left behind, feeling the newcomers are taking something from them, something they deserve because they were here before.
Business is clear in their position. Jobs are going unfilled. New talent is needed, from manual skills, caregivers, farm labor to physicists, engineers, scientists, technologists, mathematicians. Business wants them all, without unnecessary delays.
Their argument – we will move forward faster, create more wealth, stay ahead in the ruthless competition for advantage. They have a point.
The other side, the side who feels they’re being left behind – the cultural side – also has a point.
‘Why are we still behind, why are we not catching up?’
Some of the left behind may have the capacity to move up while others may not. Or they may not have the motivation. But did they have the opportunities? If they haven’t, why not?
If we’re going to start solving the immigration problem, we must listen to their side too.
Theirs is a more complex side than that of business because it exposes deep weaknesses in our system of government.
If in a given town, a business chooses to pull up and move elsewhere, that is their choice. Some of their workers will go with them but some won’t. Some will say, ‘Okay, that industry was the only game in town, so now I have to get going and move to another town, so I can make a living and feed my family. Others may not have such initiative or have yet to find it.
Sound government has a responsibility to the left behind. A responsibility to provide the necessary training for them to enlarge their capacities to work in a changing environment. That task must be done on such scale that it includes most of the affected.
When that is done then there will be less room for resentment.
I was in Germany in September of 2021, and in one of the cab drives I took I spoke to the driver. He was an immigrant from East Asia. ‘How was he adapting to life in Germany?’ I asked.
He loved it. He liked his cab driving because he could pick the hours he worked. His children were going to school. Life was good. Then there was this cousin of his, who after being laid off from his previous job during the pandemic, found out that the government was offering training programs in IT. The cousin jumped at the opportunity. A year later or so the man was making nearly 4 times the salary he had been earning before.
Not all the left behind will have the spunk the cousin had, but many will. If the opportunities are offered.
But to not have opportunities for advancement while seeing that our borders are overwhelmed and in perpetual chaos, is to inflame whatever resentments exist.
Thus the importance of dealing squarely with the immigration issue.
The perception of an orderly transition to coming into this country must be restored.
Right now the impression is that cheating is rampant. People overstay their visas. Others are allowed to stay in the country while their cases are processed but then they don’t show up for their hearings. Meanwhile, they use government services that the left behind finds intolerable.
‘Why not us?’ they ask.
Some politicians have made careers exploiting the resentments of the left behind without offering solutions. But demonizing the immigrant is not acceptable.
Building a wall is not either. Separating parents from children abhorrent.
Reason and compassion must prevail.
So we have to act. Otherwise the perception of lawlessness at our borders undermines our trust in government.
The task of solving this problem is urgent.
It will require compromises and bipartisan support but it should not be delayed.
Otherwise the problem will fester and deepen divisions we cannot afford.
The more we convey to the world our capacity to solve problems, the more we can inspire others to do the same and deter our enemies from challenging us.
Yesterday I listened to a 50 minute taped presentation sponsored by the US Chamber of commerce. It was held last year, during the pandemic.
Two US representatives, one democratic, the other republican, spoke on their views. They both agreed on the importance of tackling the problem. I heard them say that the last change to the law occurred in 1986, while Reagan was president.
I heard about legalizing those who’ve been here for years without papers yet making a contribution, all of which is important. Heard also of the importance of not demonizing the immigrant. But didn’t hear a single word about acknowledging and addressing the mounting resentment of the left behind or how to channel it.
It must be done.
It’s a cultural issue.

Oscarvaldes.medium.com