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Afghanistan, Cuba, China, Venezuela and President Biden

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Getting out of Afghanistan was a hard choice to make. It was painful.

Twenty years we stayed there and many relationships were formed. But we had to pull out. It was time to redirect our efforts elsewhere, including doing much needed work here at home.

The pain will take time to heal.

A parade of critics have decried president Biden’s decision, complaining bitterly as the pullout took place and then after. And yes, it was messy, but that was hard to avoid. Meanwhile, the president will continue to do whatever he can to assist those left behind and wanting to get out.

We made mistakes in Afghanistan. For one, our effort there was steadily undermined by Pakistan who did not hesitate to give shelter to the Taliban while calling themselves our allies.

And then, we did not make it a high priority to insist with the Afghans themselves, from the outset, that we had not gone to their land to stay. We did not make it a high priority to insist that, sooner or later, we would be leaving, and it would be up to them to put up the fight to defend their land.

That’s not to say that there are not thousands of courageous and talented Afghans, men and women, who did the best they could to stand up for their country against the Taliban.

The struggle for the soul of Afghanistan continues but, for now, the Taliban have gained the upper hand.

Turning to our hemisphere and immediately south of us, there is Cuba. For the longest time we have avoided making an important decision there as well. It is time we did so.

We have had an economic embargo on Cuba for 60 years. Has it worked?

No.

I suppose some can say, ‘we won, just look at how impoverished Cuba is?’ But I ask you, What kind of victory is that, to help run a country into poverty?

The poverty they sank into is not directly our fault because the government they have tolerated strangled personal freedom and private economic initiative, but the embargo didn’t help either.

But what was it about Cuba that made us be so inflexible? I mean, to stick to a policy that has not worked for 60 years is simply atrocious political thinking.

Was it because Cuba is so physically close to us, or because there are Cuban refugees in Florida with outsized influence in our foreign policy? Not that such influence has ever helped a democratic administration. Florida gave the presidency to Bush over Al Gore in 2000 and the likelihood is that, under a Gore presidency, 9/11 may not have happened, and even if it had, Gore would not have made the horrible decision to invade Iraq in 2003 claiming they had weapons of mass destruction, a choice made with insufficient evidence and defying reality. How could it be that a third world country like Iraq, would have weapons of mass destruction capable of threatening us? It is not that we didn’t have satellite imagery to monitor them. And yet we ignored the most basic facts. The poor judgement was plain to a multitude of Americans. I remember standing in a park with a lit candle in my hand as I joined in protest of the anticipated invasion. And demonstrations as such sprang up all over the nation. But the war mongers prevailed. Imagine all the lives spared if we had been more prudent?

So, no, the state of Florida has contributed nothing to elect democratic administrations and the likelihood is that, even if Pope Francis, Mr Biden’s friend, were to recommend him for sainthood, Florida would still vote Republican this next election and the next 10 subsequent ones also. Just like Texas with their love of guns and anti abortion sentiment and restrictive voting laws.

So, Mr Biden, never mind the votes, what’s important here is to do the right thing, just like you did in Afghanistan.

We embraced China, didn’t we? We said, let’s do business and let’s see how we both benefit. And we have. Even if now that country is choosing to further strangle political freedoms for their citizens while challenging us politically on the global stage.

But the Chinese have risen out of poverty.

Cuba, meantime, is stuck in it.

And just south of it, in Venezuela, a bankrupt political system under heavy Cuban influence is spreading misery everywhere.

Venezuela used to be a powerhouse in the oil industry. But their leaders managed to destroy that, too.

Cuba’s leadership has played a heavy hand in all those failed decisions.

But if you chose to lift the embargo on Cuba, Mr Biden, is it not possible that economic improvements would follow, in both nations?

Never mind political success. Leave that to the Cubans and Venezuelans.

Focus only on the economic benefits.

If you were to lift the embargo, Cubans, and then Venezuelans, would see their standard of living rise because they would likely be freer to take the initiative to do business and improve their lives.

And if they chose to stay communist or socialist, who cares, but they wouldn’t be poor and their suffering would be lessened.

We’re all well aware that people and nations can only be influenced up to a point.

Take the Chinese. Even after their outstanding economic success, they are still willing to let Xi Jinping run their lives, now even telling them how many hours of video games a week their children should play.

We keep hoping that one day the Chinese people will tell chairman Xi Jinping to go to hell, but in the meantime, the irrefutable fact is that they are becoming richer and richer.

Wouldn’t it be well worth it, Mr Biden, to give a chance to Cubans and Venezuelans to do the same by lifting the embargo?

You’re a risk taker.

You took a chance in Afghanistan.

Now it is Cuba’s turn.

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net

Afghanistan. Now Cuba

Mr Biden, you got us out of Afghanistan. It took courage and determination but you got it done.

Thank you. And you are right. History will show you made the right decision.

It is very hard to make smooth transitions under any circumstances, and Afghanistan was a rough one from the start.

Critics of your choice abounded, and they relished what they saw as a chance to diminish you but in the end diminished themselves.

So we now turn that page and open this next one, Cuba.

We can’t rely on the old tactic of the embargo. That won’t do. It hasn’t worked.

Whereas in Afghanistan there were many calculations to make, Cuba is markedly different.

What we need is to lift the embargo. That is it.

Will lifting the embargo prolong the life of the dictatorial elite? Maybe. But lifting the embargo will more likely be a greater bonus for the people of Cuba, who will then be better prepared to eventually do away with that cruel and oppressive regime.

The Cuban system is destined to crumble from within, not from externally imposed sanctions.

No protest in Cuba has a chance to overthrow the regime because it stands well armed by China or Russia or both, and will not hesitate to fire upon fellow Cubans to crush whatever menace is on the rise.

Lifting the embargo, on the other hand, offers the chance of broadening and deepening the productive capacity and initiative of the Cuban people, and then they will come up with the ideas and the timing to oust the government.

Please think of the image you will be projecting to the rest of South America and the world. ‘We will not stand in the way of men and women seeking their freedom.’

Holding on to the embargo has only brought misery to the people.

You have the unique chance of following the success of Afghanistan with the opportunity to enlarge the lives of all Cubans and by extension the lives of other men and women in the world.

Yesterday, I read that Mikhail Gorbachev is now 90 years old. A play has opened in Moscow to celebrate his life. It’s a two person play, Gorbachev and his wife Raisa. I had the great pleasure of seeing him and even asking him a question at a forum in downtown Los Angeles shortly after being replaced by Boris Yeltsin in 1991.

Recently, he attended a rehearsal of the play in his honor and at the end stood up to an ovation. The article said he had nothing to add to the play. The only thing he said was, ‘It’s all about freedom.’

To Gorbachev alone belongs the enormous distinction of having broken up the Soviet Union.

Cuba, Mr Biden, offers you a wonderful opportunity to enlighten the minds of men and women throughout the world.

In the same way that you freed us from the onerous burden of Afghanistan, you have the unique opportunity to say to the Cuban people, ‘Let not an embargo stand in your way, take from free markets what you must, find your strength in the power of ideas, and fight to gain your freedom. We Americans will be rooting for you.’

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net

Afghanistan. Biden’s Unfair Critics. Issue 3

Yesterday, an opinion writer in the Wall Street Journal compared Biden’s decision to leave Afghanistan to Britain’s Neville Chamberlain’s backing off from a confrontation with Hitler prior to WWII. He could not be more wrong.

There is no shortage of resolve in Mr Biden and those who think so will pay dearly if they choose to test him.

That the pullback from Afghanistan has been messy was hard to avoid.

Afghanistan’s fall will not diminish our standing in the world, while here at home there is already a sense of relief.

Afghanistan has little geopolitical importance and given the support the Taliban has had from neighboring Pakistan, the task of containing them was an impossible one.

Mistakes were made, no doubt. But we will learn from them.

The pullback from Afghanistan is a key part of Biden’s move to rebuild our nation.

The WSJ opinion writer does not get that. He does not even mention it.

The omission is reflective of a glaring mistake, that of believing that our country can continue to wage all manner of international missions without addressing the problems we have here at home.

Biden understands the national priorities while he remains attuned to the major international movements that call for a national repositioning, and so he and his team have crafted the Build Back Better program to make us stronger and deal effectively with China.

Biden’s vision is clear. We need a stronger America.

The loud criticisms he’s got, primarily from the political Right, are mostly partisan politics, coming from an opposition party which lacked the vision to plan ahead, got trounced at the polls and then chose to not challenge their president’s assertion that the election had been fraudulent, which led to the unprecedented assault on the Capitol on January 6^th.

The WSJ opinion writer just doesn’t get it. We are deep in the midst of a transformative agenda to strengthen America and give everyone a fair chance.

Our resources are not limitless.

Twenty years in Afghanistan is a heck of an investment in another nation.

But it is up to Afghans to stand on their own and make their choices.

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net

Afghanistan. Biden Has the Guts. Issue 2

We should have left long ago, but it took a President Biden to say, ‘enough is enough.’

It took a man like Biden to say, ‘I was elected president of the American people, and will do what I must to improve their lot.’

That takes guts.

Presidents came and went but it took Biden to say, ‘it’s time. We have to leave.’

And no one, no one, could in their right mind, expect a tidy exit.

The same way that no one had thought that the Afghan army, stronger in numbers than the Taliban, would choose to lay down their arms as the mujahideen advanced.

Was their country not worth fighting for?

That will be on the consciences of Afghans to deal with.

As to the chaos at the airport in Kabul, it will soon settle down as evacuations come to an end in the next few days. And if it doesn’t, so be it.

We need to rebuild our nation. We need to work on improving the skills level of our citizens, their education and health, all of which will result in greater wellbeing and productivity.

Many of our cities and rural areas are in desperate need of attention and assistance.

President Biden sees that. But the whole lot of his critics, both Republicans and Democrats, who claim to be aghast at the messy exit and the tragic scenes of Afghans clinging to a moving airplane on the tarmac of the Kabul airport, instead of empty blabber, should take a good look at themselves and ask if they’re not being unfair with Biden.

Afghanistan had long ago ceased to be geopolitically important and yet we stayed and stayed.

Almost 2500 American soldiers have died in the effort.

It has taken a president like Biden, who is mindful of our people’s needs, to put things in perspective and better allocate our resources.

It was time to leave. And it is time to reassess our role in defense of others around the world.

Here in our nation, we, the citizens, have a right to not be the victims of senseless violence. We, the citizens, have a right to have the opportunity to be the best we can be.

We can and will help others in need elsewhere in the world, even when it takes something that we ourselves don’t have enough of, but we cannot be careless with how we use our resources.

For we have also a duty to remind those we help, that they must do all they can to help themselves.

Our interventions abroad must be time limited. Are we in northern Syria to support the Kurds? Then we must make it clear that the arrangement is not permanent. Same with Iraq.

We have a large military base in Qatar, which should be enough as far as the Middle East is concerned.

The wide political divide here at home is a glaring sign of long standing neglect.

What is the use of sending troops all over the world if we don’t manage our problems here at home?

Working hard to improve our people, will help us project an image of strength that is fully grounded in reality.

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net

News and the Markets. Afghanistan has Fallen. Issue 1

But what effect will it have on the markets?

I think it will have a positive effect. There might be a downward blip come Monday but then the Dow will rebound.

For too long it’s been clear we had no business staying there. Neighboring Pakistan had persistently undermined our efforts to prop up the anti Taliban regime in Kabul.

Biden’s decision to pull out, which I believe was the right one, accelerated what was long felt to be an inevitable outcome. Afghans who were not on the Taliban’s side did not put enough effort into preparing for the resistance.

Ashraf Ghani, Afghanistan’s president, flew out earlier today to Tajikistan, a former Soviet Republic that shares a border.

Hamid Karzai, a previous president, has stayed behind with his three daughters and has offered to take part in the transition of power, but it’s all up to the Taliban.

Will the new regime be as backwards and repressive as the one that we displaced in 2001?

There is reason to believe they may not. Our twenty year presence has left an imprint and largely positive. We have left evidence of how things can be done differently.

Next door, in Iran, a more modern version of a Muslim government is in place, one which allows women to go to school, work and even hold political office. Maybe that will influence the new rulers.

We will see.

Does the fall of Afghanistan represent a political setback for Biden? I don’t think so, though many will try to depict it as such.

Initial reports from Kabul say that the evacuation of foreign diplomats is proceeding unhindered. President Biden sent additional troops to facilitate the process.

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net

Afghanistan is Lost

Recently, in the wake of the surging Taliban offensive which soon will lead to the final assault on Kabul, the capital, an Afghan man was quoted as saying, ‘You didn’t fix the problem.’

He was angry that America was leaving his land.

America had come and stayed for 20 years but now was leaving and the Taliban would take over again.

Women would once again be forced to marry and wear the all-enveloping burqas, their possibilities for personal development deeply curtailed.

‘You didn’t fix the problem,’ said the man.

There is passivity in those words. The expectation that others are to fix the problem. The problem, of course, is the Taliban. The brutally rigid group of Afghans who wish to return to rule the country in the name of Islam.

Did America fail?

Yes, we did. Failed to fire up in Afghans who are open to change, the will and power needed to fight off the repressive Taliban and rebuild the nation.

But Afghans knew all along that America and their NATO allies would not stay forever. We had gone there to root out the terrorist group Al Qaeda after the 9/11 attacks and then stayed to boost the country’s modernization.

Afghans had to know that the foreigners would not stay forever – it was not their land – but failed to use that opportunity to summon up their own courage and work steadily to overcome their national differences and be prepared to fight the enemy.

‘You didn’t fix the problem’ is the lament of a frustrated man who, having seen how much different life can be, now will have to abide by whatever the Taliban says.

If he has a daughter over 15, then she is ready for marriage to a Taliban fighter if they so wish. Her choice is irrelevant. And truncated are her possibilities as a full human being.

‘You didn’t fix the problem,’ is the cry of Afghans who didn’t band together to stop the forces of darkness they knew were just waiting for the foreigners to leave.

But can Afghans still rise in defense of their land? I don’t think so. Of course, miracles can happen. But the likelihood is that the world has to prepare itself to read report after report of people executed because they were enemies of the Taliban.

And as soon as the dust and smoke settles after fighters on the ground capture Kabul and take over the entire country, the Taliban’s supreme leaders, now in comfortable settings in Qatar and under that government’s protection, will make their triumphant return.

The number of the executed will keep growing and we will be reminded of Myanmar’s tragedy.

Yes, America had to leave. It was time. We had to leave because we have to rebuild our nation.

Rebuild because we are not united and if we remain so we will lose our land.

But we should ask ourselves, how hard did we try to get Afghans to say, ‘We must fix our problem. It is our problem. Others can help us and we will be most grateful, but it is our problem to fix.’

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net

What Biden Could be Saying to Americans as Afghanistan Falls

‘Fellow Americans… it is with a sad heart that we witness the gradual fall of Afghanistan.

We went there 20 years ago to root out Al Qaeda and find Osama Bin Laden. In the process we connected with the Afghan people. Heard their stories, their fears of being ruled by a repressive regime. We opened schools and a university and tried our best to share our values, the right of every human being to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

We spent an enormous amount of money building up their armed forces, and our brave soldiers fought shoulder to shoulder with them against the Taliban.

Nearly 2500 of our soldiers died in the struggle.

I wish I could now tell you that what we did was enough. I wish I could now tell you that what we did has a chance to grow into something lasting. I wish.

The reality, however, appears to be different… and we have to face it.

The Taliban keeps making steady advances and conquering city after city.

We continue to assist the Afghan Army by providing aerial support from our bases in the region, but it is not enough.

What happened?

We accomplished our goal of tracking down Osama Bin Laden, the mastermind of the 9/11 attack on our nation. We accomplished our goal of putting a check on Al Qaeda. But we were not able to change the core of that country in a way that makes it unlikely Al Qaeda will mount another attack on us. So, as always, we must be on guard.

What I have to say now is not easy for me. In spite of all our efforts, we could not instill in the majority of the Afghan people the will to unite, to overcome their differences and present a solid front to fight and defend themselves against the Taliban.

Twenty years we spent there and we now are leaving. We have to. It pains us to do so because unless the Afghan army and the people push back and mount a strong defense, Afghanistan will fall to the Taliban and so many Afghans will find their dreams and aspirations ruthlessly trampled upon.

But why do we have to leave?

Because we have to rebuild our nation. Yes. Our nation.

We have to raise the level of productivity in our citizens. The level of education. We have to change the social conditions that foster so much dysfunction and animosity in our land.

How is it possible that, on January 6^th, a group of our fellow citizens felt entitled to plunder our Capitol in violation of our basic rules? What led us there?

We have to invest in better caring for each other so we stop those senseless acts, and the senseless killings in our cities and towns.

I know we can, if we put our hearts and minds to it. As we do, we will grow stronger and wiser.

The road ahead is long and arduous but the good news is that we are on our way.

As the world watches, our standing must be a reflection of how free we are to be the best we can be.

My administration is committed to laying down the foundation to achieve that goal.

And with the help of our fellow Republicans, it is well within our reach if we stay on task.

We can do it, I assure you. It is urgent that we do. United we rise, divided we fall.

The story of Afghanistan teaches us a great deal.

We have to constantly keep building bridges to each other. We cannot stop.

Build bridges from the urban to the rural. From the wealthy to the poor, from the well educated to the less educated, from people of one color to people of another. Build bridges from the Right to the Center and to the Left, for we are all Americans who need each other and have to trust each other to confront the challenges that life will continually bring us.

There is no time to rest. We must act.

It remains my fervent hope and prayer, that the Afghan people and their Army, will find in themselves the needed strength to resist and overcome the forces of repression and darkness that the Taliban represent. But it is up to them.

Meanwhile, we will continue to provide aerial and tactical support.

My fellow Americans, let us pull together… strive with all our might… and I assure you our nation will lead by the power of our example.

Good night.

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net

Cuomo Could Have a New Role in Public Life

Given the mounting evidence that harassment of women in his employ did occur, it seems unlikely the governor will survive the criticism and thus will have to resign.

He has had a good run as governor.

He performed well steering New York through the thick of the pandemic.

So there is much he can rightly be proud of.

In my eyes, he is a solid man who made important contributions to his state and the nation.

I respect the man. And if I ever were to have the opportunity to meet him, I would step up to shake his hand and say thank you for all the good work he did.

But he has his flaws and they have come to haunt him.

Resigning will not be a disaster.

And yes, he could have a new role in public life.

He abused his power but so have thousands and thousands of men throughout the years, most of whom were never held accountable or are now not being held accountable.

This is a new era we are living in and it shows we are evolving as a nation.

Just like voting Trump out of office was a sign of political maturation for the nation. The nation had allowed itself to be dazzled by the man (who had made billions and billions but would not release his tax filings), and then took a breath and realized their poor judgment.

Cuomo has proved himself as a highly capable politician and administrator.

But he abused his power.

The best way to address this flaw is to accept it. Work through the denial and evasion he’s mired in and say to all women, ‘I am sorry I abused my power.’

Having said that, he could then embark on another career in public life. That is, explaining to the American people why he did what he did. How the power he had, led to the corruption of his thinking and to believing he could take advantage of others.

And doing so he would make a huge contribution to the evolution of our society.

Abuse of power in the workplace is very much a present problem in our nation.

We need men of substance, such as Mr Cuomo, men who’re highly capable, to say to the rest of us, ‘No matter how much power we attain, we should not use it to take advantage of others. It is easy to do because others are often dazzled by power.’

‘Women are learning to say no in the face of unwanted advances. We can help by being more thoughtful and to recognize the subtle ways in which unchecked power is used to bring others into submission and how it leads to their demeaning.’

Mr Cuomo is a man of his times. He had great moments as governor and he failed in his treatment of women.

But he could have a new role in public life.

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net

Afghanistan. The Last Stand

Photo by Julian Jagtenberg on Pexels.com

What sometimes seems inevitable may not be. Afghanistan may not have to fall to the Taliban advance. But extraordinary measures will have to be taken.

By whom?

By the Afghan people.

I recently read a report where the top American commander for the Middle East and Afghanistan, reassured President Ashraf Ghani of continued American air support. But by the end of August those attacks would be pulled back to focus only on Al Qaeda, if they represented a threat to the US itself.

That’s it.

Why is the rest of the world watching and not going to the assistance of the Afghan people as they face the mounting threat of total occupation and virtual enslavement by the Taliban?

Because they’re not seeing Afghans themselves putting an all out effort to defend their space.

Kandahar – the country’s second largest city – will soon be under siege by the encroaching Taliban. Is this not the time for all Afghans to put aside their differences and make defending their cities their number one priority ? Why can’t all able men and women request arms and step forward, ready to do battle?

Why can’t they form a circle around each of their cities and post images to the rest of the world that it is do or die for them? Post images that they are saying ‘no’ to submitting to a repressive and murderous theocracy. Post pictures and messages that they value what the West has done for them during the last 20 years and no, they will not surrender to the forces of intolerance.

Now is the time. Not when the Taliban come knocking on your door asking for you to bend to their will.

Using the internet, then broadcast to the rest of the world all that you’re doing, and the rest of the world is more than likely to join in support. But you have to put yourself out first.

Afghans have to arm the barricades to defend with their lives their right to choose how to live.

Americans or anyone else cannot do it for them.

What freedoms Afghans will have, must be defended with their own blood. With their own sacrifice. And if they are not willing to do so, then they will not have a land they can call their own.

Every piece of land on this earth that is rightly claimed by a proud people has a history written with blood. Those of us who have been fortunate enough not to spill blood in defense of our land are grateful for what our ancestors and our brothers and sisters did. And we honor them with our own efforts to build a better nation.

But never must we forget that it will take blood to defend what is most dear to us.

So let the brave Afghans step forward.

The world may yet listen and go to your side.

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net

Biden and Cuba. This is The Time

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To lift the embargo on the island. And so I add my voice to thousands of others.

The embargo has done what it was supposed to do. Show the Cuban regime’s profound inadequacies, their lack of flexibility and imagination, their inability to stimulate markets or motivate their people to be creative and enterprising.

The expectation that the embargo would result in the demise of the regime proved wrong. So long as the government has the guns they will not hesitate to fire on their people. Or persecute and incarcerate them to bring the population into total submission.

But you now have the option of lifting all restraints on trade.

Will the Cuban government benefit from such move? They will. But the main beneficiaries will be the Cuban people.

It has been clear in their minds that their regime is a grand failure and, in due time, will act to subvert and neutralize it.

Will Cuba become another China? Benefitting from trade with the West to then start to impose a punitive and restrictive system on their people?

It is very unlikely, given Cuba’s 60 plus years of self injurious stagnation.

There are no certainties ahead but we know that the need for change is great.

And with Cuba starting to shine after the lifting of the embargo, imagine the effect on the rest of Latin America. Notably Venezuela, languishing under the Maduro dictatorship. And on Peru, which now has taken a hard turn to the left.

The possibilities of significant ripple effects are great.

And here at home, the lifting of the embargo will likely turn Florida into a democratic voting state.

Doesn’t that sound appealing?

Wouldn’t that executive order of yours ring loudly across the entire world, saying ‘The American president carries the bright torch of hope for the future of mankind.’

No small praise.

The time to act is most propitious, Mr President.

Best

Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net