oscar valdes

An Unnecessary War

Trump is on the verge of ordering an attack on Iran.

If he had not pulled out of the agreement with that nation, calling for it to halt their development of nuclear weapons in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions, an agreement arduously negotiated by Obama and including European nations and Japan, we would not have this crisis.

The deal was to last 10 years, during which there would have been time for changes to occur in Iran, but Trump was seduced by Netanyahu into breaking the pact and here we are on the brink of war.

If we go to war this will be Trump’s war, timed perfectly with Netanyahu’s bid for another term as prime minister of Israel in tomorrow’s election.

Here’s a leader, Israeli voters can confidently say as they head to the polls, who can whisper things in Trump’s ear and make things happen,

Woe to us for tolerating this.

American Factory. The Documentary. A Review.

In 2010, a plant that had been vacated two years earlier by General Motors in Dayton, Ohio, was taken over by Fuyao, a Chinese manufacturer of glass for automobiles. ‘American Factory’ is the story of what transpired as two cultures came together to make the enterprise successful.

It wasn’t easy. Each side had to work hard to try and understand the other.

A group of experienced Chinese workers is brought in to teach the work to the Americans. The Chinese do the complicated technical job effortlessly as the Americans look on. It will take time for them to come up to speed.

Some Chinese are skeptical or scornful.

‘Their fingers are fat,’ says one Chinese supervisor. ‘They are lazy’ says another. ‘In China the workers do six (12 hour) shifts a week, with two days off per month. The Americans do only 8 hours a day and don’t like to work the weekends.’

One Chinese executive, after explaining the best approach to working with the Americans, ends by reminding his Chinese audience that they are better than their hosts.

And yet, there is kindness on both sides.

An American worker speaks warmly of his Chinese supervisor and all that the man has taught him. In turn, he invites the supervisor and fellow Chinese to his farm.

We hear a Chinese worker showing admiration for the American lifestyle. He’s had to make sacrifices in coming to the US, like not seeing his family for long periods at a time.

A group of American supervisors invited to China to see the company’s factories witness the enthusiasm of their people, but also are struck by the strict regimentation of the workers. Is that what it has taken for their country to rise so quickly?

Like with their Chinese counterparts, the pressure of factory production on the Americans is demanding and unforgiving, requiring an enormous amount of attention to detail. A mistake and you’re injured. A little slow and you’re out.

American managers have their problems too. At the beginning we’re shown one such manager enthusiastically advocating for Fuyao. At the end he’s been sacked. He’s bitter.

Transplanting to the US the Chinese company’s style leads to mounting grievances and eventually the Americans try to unionize, but the majority vote against it. They want their jobs. ‘All the union will do,’ says one worker – a woman, ‘is keep the bad workers…’

The film is many things, and one that is plain is the contrast between the managerial and worker classes.

We’re told that Fuyao did not become profitable until 2018, all the while paying its employees $14 and hour. When General Motors was the employer, some workers were making $29 an hour. But Fuyao was now the only option available.

Think of the car you drive and the clear and sturdy windshield that helps you cruise smoothly at 80 miles per hour or more, your hair unruffled by the wind. The film shows us the complexity and skill involved in making possible that experience, the many steps necessary to deliver a light panel of glass that will not blow up in your face. And think then of how little the workers are paid.

Thought provoking and humane, we come away from the viewing of the film with a sense of how much needs to be done to build bridges across nations, and across social classes.

The Speech that Biden and Sanders are About to Give.

(It was written by the two and is to be delivered by them at two separate locations at the same time)

Dear fellow Americans,

At no time in our history, have so many talented women chosen to run for the office of president. At no time has there been such great need for our best publicly minded citizens to step forward.

The values that our nation holds dear, freedom, openness, fairness, strength of character, compassion, are under assault by the bigoted and the small minded.

Democracy itself being under siege, it is urgent that we join forces to fight back against those who seek to divide us and plunge us into darkness.

The two of us have a long history in politics. You may disagree with us on some matters, but we both are confident that, in our different capacities and to the best of our abilities, we have always endeavored to do the best we could for the nation.

And so it is that with both sadness and joy, the two of us would like to announce that we are no longer seeking the office of the presidency.

We are saddened because we are putting aside our highest personal ambition, which is not easy.

We are joyful because we think our decision will pave the way for a woman to become president to all Americans.

We democrats are facing in Mr Trump a candidate who will be showered with money by the financiers and business people who want to continue to get the tax cuts and deregulations that favor them.

We democrats are facing in Mr Trump a candidate for whom money will not be an obstacle in this election, because the affluent class of this country sees him as their best hope to maintain inequality and keep them in power .

But the unfairness we are seeing in taxes, in health care, in education, is breaking our backs and degrading the American spirit.

This is the time to stand up against those forces that keep spreading the word that if the very rich cannot keep getting richer, why then there would be no more creativity in the land.

This is the time to rise against those forces that keep telling us that if the very rich are not given unlimited privileges, why then the rest of us would not have it in ourselves to find our way to prosperity and harmony.

They are wrong. Very wrong.

We democrats, strongly believe, that when education and health care are made available to all of us, then that will release the drive and ingenuity that is needed to create a world where there is dignity alongside plenty.

And we believe, that this very special moment in our history, is just the right time for an American woman to step front and rise to the office of the presidency, leading us to unity, greater prosperity and reestablishing our place among the nations of the world.

In 1789, two hundred and thirty years ago, we elected George Washington as our first president.

During those two hundred and thirty years since we elected George Washington, we have never elected a woman president.

Two hundred and thirty years.

My fellow Americans, don’t tell us that in nearly a quarter of a millennium there has not been a highly qualified woman capable of carrying out the duties of president of this nation.

There has not been a woman president in our land because consciously or unconsciously, overtly or covertly, we consistently have thought of ourselves as better than them.

Let us be brave and admit it, for that is the first step toward healing the soul.

Look into your heart and tell us that you have not come across a woman who was just as talented as you are or more.

Look into your heart and tell us that you have not come across a woman who did not have ample leadership qualities.

If you haven’t then you haven’t looked. If you haven’t then you have been blind. Talented women are everywhere, they are standing next to us this moment. They are present in every field of endeavor, and they have been vastly underutilized.

It has been our loss. We cannot afford such waste.

Our current president is a symbol of the undervaluing of women. Put aside his many degrading remarks and just look at the composition of his cabinet. Out of 15 positions, only 2 are presently occupied by women. Only 2, the secretaries of education and transportation. Is this not a representative democracy?

Both of us who have crafted this speech have had good political careers. We’re not done yet. But we think that we both have had a good run and that it is time to step aside and let a woman move forward.

We are taking this position, more than a year before the election, because we believe that the electorate needs to get to know the women candidates for president. We are also taking this position partly because of our age, and there’s no turning back the hands of time.

We may have our own preferences as to a woman candidate, but we are not endorsing anyone just now.

We strongly believe, however, that during this next year before the general election, we will need to concentrate our efforts and that the less diluted the field is, the more clear our choice will become, and the less likely it will be that we squander much needed resources.

Fellow Americans, the nation needs to heal.

Our current president is tearing us apart.

We need someone with the capacity to reach out to those whose animosity is consuming them, remind them that in unity lies our strength, and so begin to build the bridges to a fairer, kinder and stronger America.

Let us make 2020, the Year of the American Woman*. By then, it will have been 231 years since we elected our 1^st president.

Thank you

And God bless America.

Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.

*The idea that 2020 be designated the Year of the American Woman, was first proposed on 7/18/2019 by an obscure California writer and blogger who shall remain unnamed.

Hong Kong and the Tariff war.

There they are, week after week, the residents of Hong Kong protesting the mainland’s suppression of their liberties, in violation of the agreement China signed in 1997 with England which would guarantee the territory keeping their rights for another 50 years. Week after week the protesters continue to fight, and week after week the police and armed thugs push them back.

Is the rest of the world taking a firm stand against the mainland’s repression of the protesters?

No.

The US could be summoning international support to tell China not to mistreat the protesters but it is not. And it is not because Mr Trump has not valued our alliances.

Our president may think he has achieved a great victory in getting China – through his imposition of tariffs – to drop from being our number one trading partner to becoming our third largest, behind Canada and Mexico, but that is no victory at all. Instead, what the tariffs have done is increase animosities and hurt the global economy.

As Trump has carried on with applying tariffs on China and threatening them on our allies, our stature in the world has diminished.

As Trump has carried on against immigrants, our moral standing has suffered too.

Meanwhile, with each protest, the people in Hong Kong keep sending out a call to the nations of the world to take a stand with them in the fight for freedom. We used to be able to hear those calls but gone is our moral leadership.

Can we ask China not to repress the protesters in Hong Kong when we are bashing them with tariffs? They would laugh at us.

Can we ask the rest of the world to take a stand with us? The likely answer, ‘aren’t you all about making America great again? That doesn’t include us, does it?’

The courageous people of Hong Kong will fight on because that is their precious land. They are fighting for their freedom. They are also fighting for the freedom of all Chinese, even those in the mainland whose voices are harshly suppressed.

One day China will be free, and they will do so fueled by the memories of the sacrifices of their brothers and sisters in Hong Kong.

What Mr Trump doesn’t get, is that China’s drive for becoming a great nation cannot be stopped.

Yes, they have traded unfairly and stolen technology, but they have it in them to learn from it and create their own. Didn’t they already travel to the other side of the moon without our help?

A different approach to the trade problem was available, and still is, one that includes cooperation with our allies who are also affected. But our myopic president dismissed such option. The complexities of the world dwarf him.

Had he not started a tariff war, we, and the rest of the world, could well have been in a better position to stand together in defense of Hong Kong.

And yet, still we hope, that Hong Kong doesn’t turn into another Tiananmen.

The Financier Jeffrey Epstein. A Brief Note.

He made a lot of money and used it to abuse underage women. He could hire the best attorneys to minimize culpability, he had mansions and private islands and knew lots of famous people,

and yet

ended up dying in a prison cell, by his own hand.

All that money can buy did not help.

All that money can buy did not get him the serenity to face his sexual urges and say, ‘I must control this. I am harming other human beings and myself. I am taking advantage of underage women.’

All that money can buy did not get him the inner strength to say, ‘I am a capable man but my sexual urges overwhelm me, I cannot control them.’

All that money can buy, all those ‘high powered’ people he surrounded himself with, none of it, was enough to get him a moment of quiet were he could say, ‘I need help. I am desperately in need of it. I cannot manage my impulses on my own. I do not have the power. Money does not give me that power. How can I find it? Where?’

Maybe he even had moments when he looked up the number of a psychiatrist or psychologist and almost dialed it, maybe even passed by the office, thought of going in, even knocked on the door only to change his mind at the last minute.

Maybe.

Did anyone around the wealthy financier, did anyone close to Jeffrey ever say to him, ‘dear man… you are ill… very ill… and you need help. With help you can heal. There is help. Help to turn your life around. Please get help, for your sake and that of others.”

All that money can buy.

Tariffs and The Entertainer in Chief

It is the beginning of the end.

By now it should be clear to our president, like it is to most of us, that the tariff war with China cannot be won. Trade with China needs fixes, of course, but the way our president has gone about it has been self-defeating. His style is aimed more at playing to the world and propping up his fragile ego than to secure a favorable deal.

In the excitement of his impulsive tweets and the frenzy of his contradictions, he has revealed his style to China and they have taken notice.

Sure, he can say one thing now and stocks go up, another thing later the same day and stocks go down, but the market is not the economy.

Gradually, through his erratic ways, he has proven himself unsteady, eroding business confidence and doing real damage to the economy.

The economy can still recover – after a period to make the adjustment – but it would take for Mr Trump to see it as a priority and to focus on stability.

There is nothing to suggest that precious quality lives in him.

Curiously, he knows that a sound economy is essential to keeping alive his hopes of being reelected, but his need to see himself as Entertainer in Chief overpowers his better judgment.

And that’s who we’re stuck with.

A man who one moment wants to buy Greenland (which could be a sound idea if approached sensibly instead of in a capricious tweet), another moment wants Netanyahu in Israel to bar two US congresswomen from visiting the West Bank, then wants to invite Putin to the next G7 meeting – never mind his power grab of Crimea in the Ukraine, and the shooting down of a commercial airliner killing everyone on board, including distinguished scientists – and why not have the meeting at Mar-a-Lago and play a round of golf? Putin, who interfered in the 2016 election and will surely interfere again. Or as Robert Mueller said recently before congress, it is already happening.

Meanwhile, China watches.

China knows to wait out our president. They have taken the measure of the man.

They are willing to endure whatever hardship the trade war will bring for they will not bow to Trump and his swashbuckling style.

Trump doesn’t get that. And we and the world will pay the price.

Maybe that is what it will take for us not to make the same mistake again.

Min and Ting. Two Hong Kong Protesters. (the day after a protest turned violent at the airport)

Min is a young man, Ting a young lady, both 24 and fellow students at the university. Min is lying in bed with his broken arm resting on his chest. It is a small windowless room in his parents’ small apartment. His arm was broken 3 days before in a confrontation with police at a train station. Ting has just arrived and sits in a chair at his bedside.

Ting – How is your arm?

Min – Better. Were you at the airport yesterday?

Ting – I was.

Min – What happened?

Ting – It got out of hand.

Min – I’d been worried about that. When things get too heated people lose control.

Ting – It shouldn’t have happened.

Min – It shouldn’t have. (he gives her a long look). You’re going back?

Ting – Yes.

Min – You’re strong.

Ting – We have to stand up to them.

Min – I know. But I worry that we’ve gone too far.

Ting – I worry about it, too.

Min – But you’re still going back?

Ting (smiling) – Yes.

Min repositions his arm.

Ting – When will the cast come off?

Min – Six weeks.

Ting – Better a fractured arm than a fractured head.

Ming – I know. I raised my arm just in time. Otherwise it would’ve been my head.

Ting – And you said it wasn’t a policeman?

Min – No. He was a thug. Hitting us while the policemen looked the other way. It was like 15 of them. Just came straight at us.

Ting – You’re brave.

He smiles.

Min – I’m glad you think so. First he hit me in the ribs, took my breath away, then he aimed for my head. He was so quick. I barely had time to cover.

Ting – I’m glad it wasn’t worse.

Min – Me too.

Ting – If we don’t fight who will? Our parents are too old.

Min – They’re paying the bills.

Ting – Yes, that too.

Min smiles up at Ting.

Min – I’m glad you came to see me.

Ting – Of course. You would’ve done the same for me.

Min – I would.

She raises her open palm and they slap in high five style.

Ting – You think Xi will send in the troops?

Min – If he does it will be brutal. Tiananmen all over again. What are the people in the mainland thinking?

Ting (shrugging, pensively) – Who knows what twist Beijing is putting on the story. Their lives are so controlled. Everything so censored.

Min – Have you been?

Ting – Yes. Three times. Last time was a year ago. Went to visit a cousin in Shanghai.

Min – You could tell the difference?

Ting – Right away. Cameras everywhere. Everyone under surveillance. Suffocating. That’s how it felt to me.

Min – We’re fighting for all the Chinese, aren’t we?

Ting – Yes. Even if they don’t appreciate it.

Min looks away for a moment.

Min – They just don’t know what they’re giving up.

Ting (shakes her head) – I think they know… but they figure there’s a price to pay for their physical comforts and they pay it.

Min – What do they say about Xi changing the constitution so he can keep getting reelected until he dies?
Ting – Oh well.

Min – Will they care if Xi sends in the troops?

Ting lowers her eyes for a moment.

Ting – Maybe some.

Min – I was thinking of Prague before you came… August 1968… when the Russians invaded.

Ting – We’re doing it for us. And China did sign a treaty with the British guaranteeing our rights until 2047.

Min – Xi laughs at it. You think the world will stand by us?

Ting – Some will. The many won’t. We’re on our own. if you lose an eye, you won’t get it back, no matter who stands by you.

Min – I’m so sorry for that girl.

Ting nods slowly.

Min – Did you know her?

Ting – No. All I know is she was giving first aid to a protester on the ground.

Min runs his hand slowly over the cast in his arm.

Ting – Maybe if you’ve never known freedom it’s easier to put up with people controlling you. But if you’ve known freedom… you fight to keep it.

Min – Even if you’ve never known it, you yearn for it. It’s essential to being human.

Ting – The spirit of George Orwell is with us.

Min – Yes it is.

Ting – One day I will write too.

Min – I would love to see that.

Ting – Thank you. I have to go now.

Min – Back to the airport?

Ting – Yes.

Min – Do you have to?

She looks at him and smiles.

Ting – They’re expecting me.

Min – I wish you wouldn’t go.

Ting reaches over and caresses Min’s face.

Ting – You are sweet.

Min – The struggle is bringing us close.

Ting – It is.

Min – Will you be safe and not do anything crazy?

Ting – I will be safe… and not do anything crazy.

Min – Promise?

Ting – Promise.

She takes his hand in hers and kisses it. Then she rises and crosses to the door. She looks back at him and waves a slow goodbye.

Min – Will you call me when it’s done?

Ting – I will.

She exits.

Dear Xi Jinping

I would like to ask that you not repress the protesters in Hong Kong. They are not threatening your reign in China.

The protesters do stand, however, as examples of what China should and could become, a first class society where freedom of speech and assembly are essential to the wellbeing and creativity of the population.

It took fundamental economic reforms for China to rocket into prominence in the last 40 years. And more is to come. But it won’t happen without freedom.

It is tempting for some to say that the enormous progress China has made, is primarily the result of the rule of the Communist Party.

You know that that is not true.

You have certainly provided guidance and structure, but without the fundamental economic reforms introduced by Deng Xiaoping, and the enormous talent and determination of the Chinese people, the country would not be where it is today.

Autocracy, tight governmental control, the system you represent, will eventually become an obstacle to the continued growth of the nation.

The world, Mr Jinping, needs China’s valuable contributions. Your nation should not be held back.

To your north and to your east, by contrast, Russia and North Korea stand as examples of all that goes wrong with autocratic systems. The productivity of their people has been long stymied.

While China has benefitted in part from the regimentation it has lived under and the openness to America and the West, it now needs to move to another phase of development, a new phase that requires freedom of speech and assembly as its essential ingredient.

So let Hong Kong and Taiwan stand as showcases of what is possible.

Have the wisdom and courage to allow different systems to evolve alongside your autocracy.

And learning from their experience and yours, allow for the gradual transformation that is essential for China to continue its rise to affluence and prominence.

Learn from tolerating difference right next to the mainland and use what you learn to prepare the mainland for the challenges that lie ahead.

History will not be kind to men like Putin and Kim Jong Un. They will be remembered as mere tyrants. You, on the other hand, have the option of another outcome.

And it could start right now, with you not repressing and persecuting the courageous and idealistic Hong Kong protesters.

It could start with you showing tolerance, kindness and wisdom, and by doing so signaling to the world that your nation has the power of compassion that other nations should strive to emulate.

History will forever remind us of Tiananmen. We should never repeat it.

It’s up to you, Mr Jinping.

Your choice.

Thanks

The Hong Kong Protests: A View From Afar

It has been impressive, the courage of the protesters, the tenacity and creativity which with they have organized. The spark that set things off, the law that would have allowed for the extradition to the mainland of criminal suspects from Hong Kong, has been pulled back, and yet the protests have continued, making more demands from the Beijing appointed authorities governing Hong Kong.

Today, the protesters occupied the airport forcing the cancellation of flights.

How will it end? is the question in everyone’s mind.

What seems clear is that Xi Jinping will not make any concessions that jeopardize his control over the territory. He would prefer for the protests to die out and for the violence to cease but the dissidents are not giving any signs that that is their intention.

No one, Xi or anyone else, wants to see the repeat of Tiananmen Square 30 years ago this last June 4^th.

Does the leadership of the movement have the capacity to redirect the energies of the protesters? If it does this is the time to use it so that the violence is turned down. Could they, for instance, change strategy and aim for concessions allowing political bodies run by the mainland to grant greater representation to the people of Hong Kong?

The protest organizers’ surely realize that continued violence will not advance their cause and instead invite brutal repression.

Should that happen the world may stand in solidarity with the protesters but the victims will remain victims.

Trade with China may pause briefly but eventually will continue, and the dead will not be brought back.

Hong Kong today retains economic value to the mainland – it has the 4^th richest stock market, right behind Japan – but eventually that value will be transferred to the mainland. It’s a matter of time.

But there’s something unique about the struggle of the protesters. And it’s their yearning for a voice, their thirst for their freedom.

The rest of China, under the thumb of Xi Jinping and the party, must be looking at Hong Kong and, in the recesses of their minds and hearts, realize that one day they would like to have the freedom to express themselves. In the recesses of their heart and minds, they must be envying the courage of the protesters from Hong Kong, even if they may deride them in public, because deep down, every Chinese person, like every man or woman on this earth, wants to have the choice to be free.

Trump and Xi will continue with the trade war but Hong Kong should not be part of it.

Hong Kong’s protests are about the aspirations of every human being.

Dear Joe Biden:You and the Year of the American Woman

You are, today, in a very special position to alter the course of American political life. Your talents have been in evidence during your long career, reaching a high point when they caught the eye of Barack Obama, a good judge of character, who made the excellent choice of picking you as vice president. At a time of historical transition, Obama chose well, you delivered superbly, and the nation felt it could trust democrats to open a new chapter in its history.

Thank you for that.

Surely there were many moments during your tenure as vice president, when Obama sought your advice in complex matters and your wisdom made a difference.

Thank you for being there for all of us.

Personally, I remember one very special instance when you boosted the flagging spirits of all democrats. During the heated campaign for reelection in 2012, after Obama had put in a lackluster performance in the first debate against hard challenging Mitt Romney, you came back with a sterling demonstration of political savvy, debating vigorously and dominating his running mate. It was unforgettable.

Today, as the nation is roiled by the hatred and mismanagement stirred by a short sighted republican president, history has once again put you in a position to have an outsize influence in our national life. Not by you vying for the presidency, but by you helping to shift the attention of America’s electorate to a worthy woman candidate.

I am sure you have thought about this.

Never before, have so many American women been driven by the desire to put themselves in the thick of the nation’s political struggles, to endure whatever comes to those bold enough to make public their political ideas, to those strong enough to bare themselves to public scrutiny.

Never before, have women moved forward so confidently, and say to the nation, ‘we are over half of this land, we have given birth and helped nurture all Americans. We have something to say and we will be heard, for we have the capacity and vision to lead”.

What we are witnessing is unprecedented. It signals that we are ready to move to another stage in our political development, a stage where American women, long neglected and ignored, must play a central role.

It cannot be otherwise. Like Obama was the personification of a powerful force in our midst, so now is the time for an American woman to lead.

History has set the stage.

How? By our having elected, in 2016, a man who is the antithesis of good sense. A man whose instincts are against the environment, against nurturing alliances with steadfast friends, a man who has failed miserably to invest generously in Americans, so we can move confidently into the future.

With that contrast, it should be clear that 2020 ought to be the year of the American Woman.

There are, in the present field of candidates, highly capable women running for president and you, Joe, are in the enviable position of being the force that influences events decisively.

Imagine you saying to the nation that it is time for Americans to elect a woman. The force that your words carry would have a profound effect on the electorate. You would help narrow down the choices so that our energies can be better spent. The allocation of campaign funds would become more efficient, which we need because wealthy Republicans, aiming for preferential tax treatment from our president, will give lavishly to reelect him.

So now is the time, Joe, for you to bow out of the race. Now that you are on top, now that you are leading in the polls. Paradoxically, this is the best of times.

On close scrutiny, you have lost some of your former sharpness. The temptation, of course, is to deny it, to go on and on, to pretend that it is not happening.

The grueling contest for the nomination and later the race to election day will, however, be unforgiving, further exposing some of the apparent deficits. But it doesn’t have to be that way. You have made a place for yourself in our political history. Those of us who appreciate your years of service would prefer not to see you stumble. Those of us who know of your invaluable contributions would prefer not to see you leave the race because your performance has lost its luster and you no longer lead the field.

So this is the time, Joe. Right now.

I do not think that this suggestion of mine will ever come from any of the talented women candidates now vying for the nomination. Their pride wouldn’t allow it. They would rather battle it out with you. And it could be that one of them will defeat you in the contest. But even if you should be the one to capture the nomination and go on to beat Trump, I do not think that you will have the profound impact on our nation that a woman president will.

This is their time, Joe, right now. Their golden moment, and you can help make it happen.

I urge you to consider moving from leading presidential candidate to leading force in helping usher in a new era in American politics and you will shine with lasting light.

You, Joe Biden, gallant knight of a thousand political battles, can make 2020 the Year of the American Woman and help open the next chapter in our political history.

Best

Oscar Valdes