Oscar Valdes

When Will The War End?

There is no way of realistically predicting that time but the more relevant question is, how will the war end?
I see two main camps at this point. One stating that we should hurry up and look for a deal enabling the contending parties to put down their weapons. Another saying there will be no talks until Russia has left Ukraine entirely, including Crimea, which they took over in 2014.
Zelensky is a strong advocate of the latter option.
And it makes sense.
Pushing Putin out of Ukraine entirely would be a complete victory.
So long as Ukraine is willing to put in the heroic effort, the West should back them up.
The West needs to take the long view and make the necessary sacrifices. The advantages are enormous.
A deterred Russia is more likely to see the anti Putin ferment rise and eventually lead to the deposing of Putin.
An increasingly united West will help work out internal differences and hasten the path to energy independence. The western alliance has the intellectual/technological/industrial capacity to accomplish the task.
A complete Russian retreat from Ukraine has important consequences for China’s present leadership. It will be clear to all Chinese that the global West, in mustering the resources needed to assist Ukraine, will be ready to make the same commitment to aid Taiwan.
The Chinese people are a capable people but the present leadership is preventing their political maturation. Xi Jinping is another Vladimir Putin, likely to be as truculent, murderous and brutal as the Russian in his effort to keep himself in power.
The Chinese communist party has been able to control the population only because of its repression of freedom of speech. When the Chinese people gain such freedom, all their potential will be unleashed to the benefit of their nation and the world.
The US has been broadcasting into China through Radio Free Asia (rfa.org) in Mandarin, Cantonese, Uyghur and other languages. Chinese authorities consistently jam the transmissions so this needs to be improved.
China will retaliate, of course but they won’t be able to wall off their country.
A steady flow of information from the free world will be critical to create the necessary conditions in China so they begin to move toward democracy.
Both Russia and China are fond of looking at the West and saying ‘Look at all the chaos that you have.’ But free societies learn to face those conditions and find answers to them, spurring civic growth as a result.
The heroic effort of Ukraine is opening a new path for nations to cooperate and rid the world of the devastating consequences of dictatorial regimes.
A word about Zelensky and his tenure as president of Ukraine. New elections for the post will not be held until the end of March 2024. Zelensky is permitted to run again.
Will the war have ended by then?
I hope so.
If it has not, the holding of such an important election should be postponed. It would be very difficult for the opposition to campaign while the nation is at war.
Zelensky should then say that he will continue as president only until the end of the war and not run again. And the nation should set a limit for such tenure, say a year or two at the most, if war were to drag on further.
Where would Zelensky go next?
I believe he would do a great job as head of the United Nations.
One of his tasks ought to be to lead the effort to redraw the terms of the body’s charter, so as to not allow countries like Russia and China to hold veto power in the UN’s Security Council.
The world needs to break the chains to authoritarian governments.

Chancellor Scholz. The Leopard Tanks

Photo by Catherine Harding Wiltshire on Pexels.com

With the war slowing down because of Winter, the need for tanks has become clearer.
Ukraine has the advantage at this time.
Just writing these words seems unbelievable. Only 11 months ago, when Putin invaded, no one foresaw that Ukrainians would rise to the task and say to Putin and his troops, ‘Go screw yourselves!’
They didn’t have the guns but they had the voice. And their voice rose and flew all over the world asking for help fighting off the invader. They would do the dying, they said proudly, we just need the guns to do the fighting.
When was the last time the world heard such a plea?
And the West heard it, heard the anguish in the voice of Ukraine, their willingness to give it all to defend their land. And the West said, ‘this is real… and we will back you up.’
Some western leaders heard the anguish more clearly than others, but gradually a consensus emerged. And the help to Ukraine started to flow.
What they have done with it is extraordinary.
Day in and day out they battle a superpower bent on enslaving them, bent on destroying their identity. A superpower who has more weapons than they do but a superpower without the moral resolve that Ukrainians have.
Ukraine’s courage has pushed the West to ask itself, is this not our fight also? And to answer, yes, it is. And to again ask, must we not sacrifice also? And to answer, yes, we must.
Ukraine’s heroism is a triumph for democracy and freedom.
Russia does not know what that is and neither does China.
And so Ukraine’s incredible performance has split the world into three parts. The one part that is privileged to have seen democracy and freedom in action; the part that lacks the wisdom to struggle with its uncertainties and thus settled on autocracy; and the part that does not want to make the choice and prefers to drift.
That Ukraine has fought Russia to a standstill is a story for the ages.
This is not the time for the West to waver but to commit to seeing Ukraine triumph over Putin. Nothing less.
All parties backing Ukraine have been making sacrifices but more will be needed to complete the task.
Germany’s Leopard tanks must be made available to Ukrainians as soon as possible.
It will be a grave mistake to be timid now for it will only embolden Putin and his allies.
Ukraine has a right to recover all its territory, all the way to its border with Russia.
Chancellor Scholz, what good are your tanks while in storage?
Do you think they will deter a Russian attack on your soil?
They will not.
Germany has cast its lot with the West. We will defend each other. You either believe that or not.
The Leopard tanks in Ukraine’s hands will help them keep the advantages so painfully earned.
Chancellor, please think of the judgment of history.
To not act now in full defense of Ukraine is a grave mistake that will forever stain your name.
In this hour of need, please, do not choose to be timid.

A China Russia Split?

Is it possible? What would it take?
For one, Putin seriously threatening the West with nuclear weapons, since it would imply China allowing the Russian to set the agenda, thus leaving China open to retaliation from the West.
But there’s another reason a split between the two is possible.
Internal dissension in China over Xi Jinping’s ambition to rule until his death.
Xi has miscalculated.
He has assumed that the remainder of the high ranking Communist party officials will be content bowing to his highness until the end of their lives.
The days of Mao Zedong and ruling forever are gone.
‘What about me?’ will ask the very ambitious in the politburo who are forced to suppress their aspirations. ‘I would like to govern, too, and be at the pinnacle for at least a term. Why should Xi get all the goodies for ever and ever? There are other deserving people, too, so we should get a chance to compete for the top post.’ But Xi has said to them, ‘no, I’m top dog and you lick my paws.’
And these ambitious and pushed aside Chinese, filled with resentment for the overbearing Xi, will think about the virtues of parliamentary systems in the West wherein mistakes in leadership are punishable by ousting. You’re in one week but make a bad mistake the next and you’re out the following (i.e, Liz Truss in England recently).
These same ambitious Chinese in the Politburo will think again about democracy in America, a system riddled with problems, a system they love to bad mouth, but where Trump could not stay in power. A system that has investigated the man publicly and where his chances of regaining the presidency are now gone.
These same ambitious Chinese in the Politburo are now looking at Russia and seeing how Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has left a horrible impression in the world, with China clearly viewed as his main accomplice.
But while Putin has domesticated the majority of citizens, hundreds of thousands of Russians found the nerve to tell him ‘go screw yourself, Putin, we’re out of here, we’re leaving because you’ve gone mad and you want us to sacrifice our lives for your inflated ego. But we will not, for we can clearly see through your crap.’
And just like that, a vital section of the most productive members of that society have left the nation and chosen to make their contributions elsewhere.
The sad and tragic spectacle of Putin ordering the butchering of Ukrainians, day after day, is telling the ambitious Chinese in the politburo, that it’s bad business to have so much power concentrated in one person because, inevitably, that person will make decisions without the feedback of other people’s expertise, and some of those decisions will be disastrous.
And the ambitious Chinese in the politburo will not feel good bowing to his highness Xi, certain that sooner or later he will screw up just like Putin has.
Xi’s Zero Covid Policy’s failure is a telling reminder of how much can go wrong.
And does an ill timed invasion of Taiwan not seem a possibility?
How forgiving will the Chinese people be if an invasion of Taiwan results in fierce resistance by the Taiwanese with thousands and thousands killed day after day, all because Xi thought it was the right time to take over the island and underestimated the commitment to freedom of the islanders?
Putin’s enormous failure in Ukraine may be bringing the ambitious Chinese in the politburo to their senses.
Power concentrated in one person without the benefit of feedback is bad business.
Power that doesn’t get to rotate is not good.
Competition is important in every human endeavor. Only through competition is the best selected. And because influencing the affairs of human beings is a complex affair, rulers need to be exposed to a great deal of feedback.
Which is why free speech is critical.
The ambitious Chinese members in the politburo will think these thoughts even if they will be hesitant to propose needed reforms for fear of upsetting his highness Xi.
But they will resent Xi Jinping’s power grab.
And they need only look to Russia and the disaster in Ukraine to realize it could happen to China, too.
So why wait?
Why not start working to remove Xi Jinping – the usurper – from power as soon as possible?

PS – After leading Britain to victory with the rest of the allied forces in WWII, Winston Churchill ran for office again and lost. The Brits said, ‘Thanks, brother. We appreciate it. Now let’s get someone else.’

Letter to Putin from his Fellow Russians

We think it’s time the war came to an end.
Our nation has a tradition of being brave warriors. We lost 20 million people in WWII, a war started by Hitler, and we beat him back.
But Ukraine is different, isn’t it?
They weren’t doing anything to us. They just wanted to choose their own path and felt they could better accomplish it by becoming more like Europe.
So what’s wrong with that?
Russia sits between Europe and China. We are grateful to the Chinese for all the support they’ve given us over the years but, if you asked us, many of us feel closer to Europe, just like the Ukrainians.
But we can still be friends forever with China.
Vladimir, news travels and what we’re hearing about the war is not good.
We are the aggressor. We’re sending missiles into Ukraine to kill them and destroy their property. How are we going to make up for that?
Many of our brothers and sisters have left the country because they don’t want to be part of it. They don’t want to shoot their neighbors. Almost everyone knows someone who chose to leave.
You’ve asked the Wagner group to fight for us but they are mercenaries. That is a strange profession, isn’t it? To kill people for a living. And now the same group is recruiting prisoners to do the fighting. But prisoners don’t make good soldiers. Good soldiers need to be disciplined and have a conscience.
Vladimir, we think you’ve lost touch with us, your people.
This is your war, Vladimir, not Russia’s war and we shouldn’t be fighting it.
The world is getting a bad impression of Russians.
We trusted that you would make good political choices but we’ve found you have not.
Because of our geography, it’s easy to become isolated, but with the internet the rest of the world is getting closer. We want to be part of it. We want to join in.
We are a hard working people and have something to contribute. We want to share it with the world. The West has problems but they have beautiful things, too. The Chinese have problems but they, also, have beautiful things.
We need peace, Vladimir, not war, so we can see the beauty in people.
Ukrainians are teaching the world something very important. The value of choice in our lives.
The value of having a voice and raising it. You didn’t teach us that and we didn’t question you.
All Russians, except for the very brave who have chosen to fight you, are to blame for this awful war. We are because we didn’t speak out when we disagreed with you.
The same thing is happening to the Chinese next door, who bow to Xi Jinping like he was a deity.
We’re not idiots, Vladimir. We’re recognizing our mistakes. But you’re carrying on like you’re absolutely right. And so, too, your close associates.
You are making an ass of yourself in front of the whole world when you carry on as if you had no doubt you are right. What idiocy is that?
The more killing we see the more we realize that you can turn your rage against us, too.
We are slowly emerging from our denial. Slowly realizing you are a deeply envious and brutal man.
We were wrong about you but this will be over one day.
Vladimir, you can avoid more pain and stop the war now. Today. Give back to Ukrainians what’s theirs, all their land.
Bring back our people, Vladimir, bring back our brothers and sisters, our sons and daughters.
There’s much work to do in this world. Russia can make a great contribution.
And we don’t have to have an empire, Vladimir. Just cherishing and improving the land we now have gives us plenty to do.
Let go of the dreams of glory at the expense of others.
The struggle of human beings is the struggle to understand ourselves and the world around us.
This war you started, is doing nothing of the kind.
You’ve lost your way.
Have the courage to recognize your mistakes.
On a day like today, the Russian Orthodox celebrate Christmas.
Mark the day with an act of contrition and generosity. Stop the War. Retreat from Ukraine.

Signed. Your fellow Russians.

Having An Opinion

Is important. Having an opinion on anything.
The more subjects we have opinions on, the better.
We don’t have to be an expert on the subject to have an opinion on it.
We can reflect on it based on what we have available, what we have heard or experienced.
To have opinions we must think.
Doing so elevates it to an art form. The reflection we put into it does that.
And every one of us can do it.
We can do it while walking, sitting or lying down. But it should be done while one is alone.
Of course, opinions can and will be influenced by discussion with others but the more effort we put into doing our own thinking, the more we will get from interactions.
Writing helps thinking. But you don’t need to write to think.
Socrates didn’t do much writing. His pupil, Plato, would do it for him.
All we need to have an opinion is the willingness to have it.
All we need to think is the willingness to do it. The willingness to say, ‘I am going to think.’
That’s it.
It sounds so simple and yet, most people don’t set aside the time for it.
It is much easier to read or hear another person’s opinion and then agree or disagree with it. Which has a place, of course.
But the thinking I’m talking about is the thinking that one initiates. The one where one sets a time for it.
Each one of us has a variety of undigested ideas on a given subject that will come up when one chooses to think.
Dialogue is central to thinking. Dialogue with ourselves. With ideas we’ve heard but not pondered. Ideas we have not answered.
The French sculptor Rodin paid homage to thinking when he made his famous ‘The Thinker’, a bronze piece of a naked man sitting on a slab of stone, facing forward, his chin resting on the back of his flexed right hand, the same arm’s elbow placed on his left thigh. It is a beautiful piece.
That’s all we need to think. A place to sit and be alone.
Alone so that whatever is brewing in us can rise to the surface undisturbed.
Alone so our thoughts can float up gently into our consciousness.
Consider for a moment how little time we devote to thinking. We’re always rushing here and there, doing this or that. Afraid of looking into what is in us.
Thinking is beautiful and it is an art. Unrecognized and undervalued.
It brings us closer to who we are for it demands that we take off our mask. That we face our reality and not rush away from it. That we face our prejudices, our fears, our mistakes, our pain, our anger, our indifference, our brutality.
We all have to make a contribution to earn our living. Doing our own thinking should be part of it. And we shouldn’t leave it to others to do it for us.
We shouldn’t because every single one of us is unique.
Next time you set aside time to think, remind yourself that thinking is an art form.
When we take time to think we’re activating our creative powers. Who knows what will come out.
Societies whose members think, embrace democracy.
Societies whose members don’t, surrender to autocracy.
If you haven’t, look up Rodin’s bronze, ‘Le Penseur’, for inspiration.
It is on the net, of course, but the real thing might be at a museum near you.

Missiles Rain on Kyiv. Why not on Moscow?

Photo by Anastasia Borozdina on Pexels.com

Something is off, isn’t it? Putin gets to shoot what missiles he wants onto Ukraine – hospitals, hotels, homes, streets, power generating plants, transportation hubs, defenseless citizens and children – anything. But Ukrainians, lacking the means, cannot give Putin the misery he deserves.
Isn’t this an argument to give Ukraine everything it needs to defend itself?
Short of nuclear weapons we should ramp up deliveries of the weapons they need to attack Russia itself.
And let Putin feel what Ukrainians are feeling.
We haven’t done it thus far, because of the fear of appearing to be ‘escalatory’ in the war effort and so angering Putin.
So what would his wrath be like?
Will he move his nuclear weapons into position?
He may, and if he does, then we’ll move ours.
Will Putin risk seeing Russia go up in flames?
No.
Xi Jinping, in China, will be the first to say, ‘Hold on, Vladimir. I didn’t sign up for this. I mean, I said we were going to be friends without limits, so it is clear to the West that we are your accomplice in killing Ukrainians because we are propping you up. But if you fire a nuclear weapon, not only will you be fired upon in response, but we will be a target too. You’ve been around for a while, but here in China we have just got started on our plans to take over part of the world – the other part going to you, of course. So I don’t want to see Beijing or Shanghai burn. Please, let’s think this over.
Ukraine has a point. If missiles rain on Kyiv, why not on Moscow?
If it weren’t for the missiles, Ukrainians would have pushed your army back further.
So, it looks like you’re losing this war, Vladimir.’
‘They’ve been scared to stand up to me, the West has,’ replies Putin. ‘They’ve been very careful to not give weapons to Ukraine that I will see as escalatory. So I think I can get away with it. It’s not that they’re being cautious, it’s that they’re scared.’
‘Maybe… and maybe not’ returns Xi. ‘But once you start readying those missiles, something could go wrong, and the West will not hesitate to fire in your direction and mine.’
‘I can’t accept that I’m losing this war, Jinping… can’t accept that they’ve pushed my people back. Thousands of Russians have left the country… good people… smart people… to avoid the draft… my international reputation is in tatters… my soldiers have committed war crimes… I’m relying on prisoners as soldiers…’
‘You’re getting desperate, Vladimir. That is not good. I need you around for when I invade Taiwan, so you can back me up.’
‘Trust me, they have more to lose than I do…’ says Putin.
‘I don’t like how you’re talking. This is not about you, Vladimir. It’s about Russia. And about China.’
‘I am Russia, Jinping… like you are China.’
‘No. No and no! Look, I want to be in power forever, just like you… and I will not hesitate to eliminate my adversaries to accomplish my goals, just like you have done… but I’m definitely not China… and you are definitely not Russia. There’s a whole lot more here than you and me…’
‘You won’t back me up?’ asks Putin.
‘I can’t.’
‘What does that mean?’ presses Putin.
‘If you push on with your wish to fire nuclear weapons… ‘
‘I’m not going to fire them, just scare them…’
‘Once you get in that mode, things can go wrong. I can’t accept that,’ replies Xi.
‘What?’
‘I’ll have to tell the West that I’m no longer supporting you… and I will do so because I don’t want to see any of my cities burn… as I’m sure they will… even if we were to land some missiles on America in retaliation.’
‘You’re backing out, Jinping… I can’t believe this… you said we were friends without limits…’
‘I did… but I didn’t say crazy without limits.’

Pause.

‘I will not accept defeat, Jinping… will not.’
‘Then keep fighting… but stop raining missiles on Ukraine… or the West will arm Ukrainians to the teeth and push you all the way back to your pre 2014 borders. And how are you going to explain that to Russians?’
‘Ukraine does not want to negotiate… they want everything back,’ says Putin.
‘Surprise them. Get creative. Give a little. Offer them all of the occupied territories in the East but you keep Crimea.’
‘They may not accept that, either.’
‘They would be saving a lot of Ukrainian lives… put it in that context. Stress the saved lives. And sweeten the deal…’
‘Sweeten the deal?’ asks Putin, puzzled.
‘Yes… add that you would accept Ukraine as a NATO nation.’
‘What?’ replies Putin, with a flash of anger.
‘You’re losing the war, Vladimir,’ says Xi calmly. ‘Ukraine was never a threat to you. You made that up.’

Putin hangs up.

Xi puts down the phone. He swivels in his chair. He is alone in his office. He shakes his head slowly, concerned with the turn of events.

‘Biden needs to step up and escalate. Putin won’t be able to handle Ukrainians being better armed. But the West needs to act now… not give Putin time to rearm. This is the time.
As far as him using nuclear weapons… he won’t do it… but he’ll walk to the edge… maybe he’ll scare the West… rattle their nerves… but maybe not… and if not… China has to be ready.
We can’t afford a mistake by Putin.’

The Power of Xi

He sits alone in his office. Reflecting on the condition of the world, his position, the war in Ukraine, the futility of free speech and other matters.
He’s feeling strong. China has emerged. He’s just been elected to a third 5 year term as leader of China. A fourth term will likely follow, and maybe a 5th, if he feels up to it, as he’s sure he can keep his rivals in check. In fact, he would like to die in office, like Mao Zedong before him.
He can imagine the entire China going into mourning for a week, whenever he dies, with continuous speeches paying homage to his greatness as multitudes wail uncontrollably.
He thinks of Elon Musk, his travails with Twitter, and how he’s lost the position as richest man in the world.
Musk was the richest but he, Xi Jinping, is the most powerful, for he commands the second strongest economy, soon to surpass America’s and leave them far behind.
He, Xi Jinping, a name that is already part of the history of mankind and about whom books and books will be written, does not have to worry about the legalities that constrain the president of the United States.
For instance, he can call up Elon Musk and tell him, ‘You need to appoint a Chinese administrator to lead Tesla here in China. You’re getting a little too distracted with your affair with Twitter and I don’t want to worry about that.’
Musk might answer, ‘Well, I have my people who I have confidence in…’
‘You’re not hearing me,’ Xi would interrupt, “I need a Chinese administrator with full executive privileges… Now… and my preference is that he be a member of the Chinese Communist Party. You have a great company, one that we can keep learning much from, but you’re spreading yourself too thin and I don’t like it. Understood?’
To which Musk might reply, ‘I hear you… but I have investors I have to answer to… complex technical matters to address… it’s not as easy as you think…’
‘That’s why you would be at his disposal,’ Xi would say, ‘so you can answer what questions he/she may have during the transition…’
Musk would counter, ‘The change you propose is equivalent to a transfer of power… I’m not ready for that… and that would not go over well with the foreign business community in China… there would be significant repercussions worldwide… it would affect the entire Chinese economy…’
But Xi would insist, ‘Mr Musk… we are ready… China is ready… we fear no one… we have the markets and all the nations of the world who prefer to be governed by autocracies, who don’t want to be bothered with the details of free speech… and who are in the majority.’
Musk might reply, ‘I would need time to think about it… I can’t give you an answer now…’
‘This discussion does not have to be made public… If it pleases you…’ Xi would continue.
‘Do you intend to have this type of arrangement with other foreign businesses?’ Musk may ask.
And Xi would return, ‘You do not need that information.’
Musk again, ‘I mean, Tesla has been very cooperative with China… so I don’t see why I should be treated this way…’
Xi would then play hard ball, ‘The world is changing rapidly Mr Musk… and you have chosen to provide valuable Star Link support to the Ukrainian resistance, enabling satellite communications for their military, which is hurting my good friend Putin’s heroic effort to defend his beloved Russia from the brutality of Western aggression.’
Musk stalling, ‘I see… and if I stop providing such satellite support you would not be interfering with Tesla?’
Xi, smelling victory, ‘It just might affect my judgment, let’s put it that way. There comes a time when businesses must choose, in the interest of the future of the world. China and Russia have common goals. We believe that personal freedoms must be surrendered for the higher purpose of having a caring, benevolent ruling class. Autocracies are the way forward. We are right and democracy is wrong. Ukraine must be squashed. Eliminated. Your assisting them is not aligned with our overall objectives. But you do not have to reply this minute. I will give you 24 hours. Have a good day.’

Xi reflects on the conversation he might have with the former richest man in the world.
He feels ready for it. And why not?
Nothing will stop China. Soon enough he will take over Taiwan. Much sooner than the West is expecting. And following the example of Putin, he will rain thousands of missiles on the island. Never mind where they land. Until they drop to their knees.
Long live, Xi!

For Or Against Putin

Russia’s president chose to invade Ukraine because it’s part of his quest for glory.
There is no other credible reason.
An envious man, seething with rage because he has not been able to elevate his nation past others with fewer resources, angry at the realization that he’s not a statesman and never will be – and running out of time – he chose to invent that a threat to his future lay in neighboring Ukraine.
How to deal with it? Just take it. And if they don’t surrender, then exterminate them.
He can do it because he has nuclear weapons.
He can do it because he has built a reputation for being ruthless.
He can do it because the West is afraid of him.
Stalin is one of his heroes.
And like for him, people are mere numbers. Disposable. Expendable.
If things didn’t turn out as well as he expected during the invasion, and he has been ‘forced’ to indulge his appetite for killing other human beings, there are plenty of anti western countries that sympathize with his plans.
Anti western countries governed by autocrats and thugs.
The invasion happened and it’s been 10 months. Putin has been unsettled by Ukraine’s resistance but not very much, because knowing that he has Russians on their knees – something he is very proud of – he is sure he has the time and room to maneuver.
His main opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, is in prison. At one point he had chosen to kill him through poisoning with a nerve agent but his operatives bungled the job. Navalny thought he could continue to build a movement against him so he made the mistake of returning to Russia, which left Putin with no choice but to grab him upon landing. He could just as well have ordered him shot on the spot but there is a part of him that likes to toy with his prey before putting it away. Surely, one day soon, the poor man will fall down a set of stairs and break his neck. One way or the other, he won’t leave prison.
Ukraine’s resistance has given Putin more trouble than he expected. And a headache or two. But he’s dealt with such trifles before. Russia has plenty of mineral resources the world needs and friendly countries willing to purchase them and thus help him sidestep the sanctions the West has imposed.
It may now appear as if Ukraine will win the war but it’s only an illusion, says Putin. Sooner or later, their will to fight will crack. And there are so many more Russians than Ukrainians. Docile Russians. Russians willing to do his bidding.
And in the United Nations, with Russia and China both sitting in the Security council with the power to veto, nothing against Russia or China will get through.
Interesting, how such a large organization lost its teeth.
Now and then some idealistic soul calls for talks to end the conflict. But what’s in it for Putin when, if he perseveres, he can conquer all of Ukraine?
He will have Ukraine even if he has to burn it down. He will have Ukraine even if it is without Ukrainians. Minor matter. He’ll repopulate it. Better that way so he can extinguish any traces of what was there before.
And the world will say nothing because the world is afraid of him and his nuclear weapons.
The world will say nothing because they know he can go crazy. Yes. Lose control.
Except, that he is not crazy at all. Just more determined than his opposition.
If he were the West, he would ask the rest of the world, ‘are you for or against Putin?’
If you are against Putin, then line up over here so you can get favors and trade advantages. If you are not, then go to the back of the line and wait.
If he were the West, he wouldn’t be afraid of dividing the world, forcing nations to choose.
Has he not made it clear, with his repeated missile attacks, that he’s willing to exterminate Ukrainians?
What else do they need to see?
Gas chambers?
So it’s only a matter of time. A matter of more killing. Repeated. Methodical.
He will not stop. And he’s good at it.
Keep killing and he will win. He’s sure of it. And after a while people will get accustomed to the carnage.
So he just has to wait. He will say no to negotiations unless he gets what he wants and then set up to invade again when he’s ready.
In the West, they have to deal with free speech, which is not at all helpful to a man like him.
So long as Russians are willing to be silenced, so long as the rest of the world is willing to help him, he will keep killing Ukrainians.
Until there are no more.
It would take an uncommon type of courage for the West to unify and standing up to Putin, say, ‘Enough! Except for nuclear weapons we will arm Ukrainians with everything available so they can push you back to behind your borders and have you stay there. That way the fight you picked will be fair’.
But the West won’t do it.
They may have nuclear weapons also, but they don’t have the resolve.
Until then, if ever, Long live King Vladimir!

Push On, Damn it!

The war in Ukraine has slowed down.
It’s winter, they say.
But should it?
Russian missiles keep falling on Ukrainians, killing them and destroying their infrastructure.
Should this not be a time to press on, to give Ukraine better weapons,
the kind that may unsettle Putin and draw him to, once again, threaten us and the world with his nuclear weapons?
With the help of China he has managed to circumvent many of the sanctions the West has imposed. So China is clearly an accomplice in this confrontation. The help they provide Putin leads to more Ukrainian lives lost and more destruction of property.
In 1994, three years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, we signed the Budapest Memorandum, along with Britain and Russia, guaranteeing Ukraine’s sovereignty in exchange for the surrender of their nuclear weapons. If they had those nuclear weapons today,
there would have been no war. The thousands of lives lost would have been spared.
The billions of dollars spent would have been put to other uses. The misery would not have happened.
Somehow, the West, exulting that the Soviet Union had been dissolved in 1991, miscalculated.
We trusted that there would be respect for agreements made.
But 20 years later, in 2014, Putin chose to invade Crimea and the Eastern section of Ukraine.
Obama was president and he let it happen. Yes. Let it happen. Whatever he was doing, he said, ‘Oh well, Russians will be Russians. It’s just Crimea.’
Given that, why not take the rest of Ukraine, reasoned Putin. The West can be pushed around, he thought. Plus I have managed to trick all of Western Europe into thinking they can depend on my supplies of oil and gas. Of course, there will be a price for such largesse, reasoned the exemplary human being that Putin is.
And so on February 24th 2022, he marched into Ukraine expecting the population would welcome the annexation of their country. For the glory of a greater Russia!
Ukraine, of course, having endured enough Russian oppression, could read them better than anyone else.
They knew exactly what his highness Vladimir had in mind. Subjugation. Destroying their language and identity. Devaluing them.
It was the courage of Ukrainians that woke up the West. Otherwise, we would still be in la la land. And so we owe it to them that Russia is not now pushing on the border with Poland and the Baltic countries and Finland and Romania and Hungary and saying, we need some extra space, for our empire demands it. Give it up or we’ll bomb you because I have nuclear weapons, cried that divinity that Putin has managed to become – with the consent of the West.
Ukrainians have fought with exemplary courage. When was the last time the world saw such valor and determination?
They deserve our determination, in turn. Which means that we, the global West, should be willing to better arm Ukraine so they can better fight Putin and his supporters.
By now we know that the Russian people are not willing to revolt against their leader. Fear has induced such passivity in them that they will do whatever the great Vladimir asks them to do.
To better arm Ukraine means giving them weapons Putin may consider an escalation of the conflict on our part.
We must go there.
We need to be willing to look Putin in the eye when he reacts by threatening to use nuclear weapons and say to him, ‘We’re ready for you. And beware that if you fire a nuclear weapon in our direction, Moscow and St Petersburg will go up in flames. And let your accomplice Xi Jinping know, also, that Beijing and Shanghai will burn, too, because they have enabled you and don’t deserve any better fate.’
We need to use that language because we owe it to Ukraine and the cause of freedom.
We signed the Budapest Manifesto and let Russia violate it.
We then let Crimea be taken over and also the eastern section of Ukraine. And yet we still worry that we might displease Putin if we give Ukrainians the right to defend themselves?
Ukraine is part of us.
Ukraine is a land of freedom.
We must step up now and back them all the way.
Let us take our chances.
We will survive whatever happens.
Freedom rests on the commitment to what is noble in us.
If we don’t step up now we degrade ourselves.
Short of nuclear weapons, we should give Ukraine all the weapons they need.
We need to do it now before Putin uses the Winter to rearm.
To President Biden. This is your moment. Do what needs to be done. Don not hesitate.
Action now will help liberate not only Ukraine but Russians and Chinese, who endure the atrocious repression of their leaderships.
Push for victory.
Dare, Mr President. Dare.

The End of Trump

Continues to unfold.
The House of Representatives commission investigating the events of January 6th 2021 has dealt him a serious blow.
Their findings are being forwarded to the Justice department for further examination, which may lead to charges. Among them is the very serious matter of insurrection.
Trump had good people around who could tell him, ‘You lost. Get over it. Have to move on.’ And there were those who couldn’t stand up to him, who couldn’t say ‘you have to regroup, to examine what went wrong and correct it’. They just didn’t have it in them.
The voters know who they are.
Lots of Republican Senators are in that bunch.
Trump failed because he couldn’t adjust to reality. His message to those who were bitter and were left behind, though propelling him to the presidency in 2016, needed to be modified.
In a pluralistic society such as ours the emphasis is on inclusion, which presupposes dialogue, which presupposes tolerance. But Trump couldn’t see it.
I still remember his reaction to a reporter’s question about a former White House staff member, a lady, who had quit and was being critical of him. The reporter asked what he thought of her. Trump’s answer – ‘A dog.’
Trump failed because of his character.
There’s no way back now. He will not be president again. He should heed the advice of those who are now telling him not to run. But he won’t.
And so he will lose in the primaries to another Republican candidate.
His base deserves blame for his undoing. They did not examine the messenger carefully.
They chose to not be critical. They bought into the message of sectarianism and intolerance.
They thought Trump would be the magician who would empower them.
But there’s no easy way to empowerment in a pluralistic society. Compromise is the norm. Give and take. Gradualism.
It’s not about building walls but about building bridges. And it takes longer to build bridges.
Trump’s shortcomings ran deep.
On July 16th 2018, in Helsinki, Finland, early in the morning before meeting with Putin, Trump tweeted, ‘Our relationship with Russia has NEVER been worse, thanks to many years of US foolishness and stupidity…’. A bit lopsided to say the least. Had Putin not annexed Crimea in 2014, also grabbing Ukraine’s territory in the East?
And yet that same July 16th, at the press conference following the meeting with Putin, after reporter Jonathan Lemire asked Trump, ‘Every US intelligence has concluded that Russia did interfere (in the 2016 US elections). Who do you believe? Would you now, with the whole world watching, tell president Putin, would you denounce what happened in 2016, and would you warn him to not do it again.’
Trump replied, ‘… my people came to me, Dan Coats came to me and others, they said they think it’s Russia… I have President Putin (Putin stood nearby behind another lectern) … he just said it’s not Russia. I will say this… I don’t see any reason why it would be… I have confidence in both parties… I have great confidence in my intelligence people… but I will tell you that President Putin was extremely strong and powerful in his denial today. (Questions and answers as reported by the New York Times)
Trump failed because of his character, the same character who let himself be tricked by Putin.
We can only speculate what kind of a man Trump would have been if he had engaged in a productive dialogue with himself, where he showed willingness to acknowledge his flaws.
But he did not and that’s who we got for president.
That’s the man who faced Putin on our behalf and let him get away with the denial.
Had he not let Putin get away so easily, would there have been a war in Ukraine?
Putin didn’t just become a thug overnight, he has been a thug for a long time.
Seeing that an American president could so easily be bamboozled, surely contributed to his thinking that he could get away with invading Ukraine.
It’s been very traumatic for America to process Trump and his behavior.
We need to learn from it so we won’t make the same mistake again.