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Putin is sitting at his desk in the Kremlin. He is alone.
‘So the head of the German navy said that Crimea (annexed forcefully by Russia in 2014) was “gone, it will never come back” and that I, Vladimir Putin, only wanted and “probably deserved respect”, and that it would be “low cost, even no cost” for the West to give me such support, in part because it needed Russia as a bulwark against China.’ (WSJ 1/22/2021)
Putin laughs.
‘Beautiful. I should send him a check. Just beautiful. And if that is the head of the Navy talking, then he reflects the opinions of many Germans in the armed forces. In other words, they’re acknowledging their weakness and their need for me and all Russians, to defend them from the Chinese. Never mind Ukraine, they can be sacrificed. They are expendable to keep me happy. To give me respect.’
He shakes his head slowly, still in disbelief at the comments from the German officer. Now a hint of a smile forms on his lips.
‘If I hadn’t put the pressure on them, the cracks wouldn’t have shown. I would never have guessed it… Vladimir Putin as a defender of the West. This is too much’.
He smiles broadly for a moment and then, leaning forward, hands clasped, his mood turns somber.
‘Ukraine is mine. The West cannot get consensus, and I’ll drive my army right through their doubts. And the sanctions they will impose, whatever they may be, they won’t work because they won’t last, because Germans will start complaining of how cold it gets after I turn off the natural gas they depend on me for. And they’ll start calling their prime minister pleading that he intervenes, that their factories cannot produce enough and they’re not making enough money. And they’ll beg that the government appeal to my generosity.
And the French will bitch that they can’t get enough croissants, and the Italians not enough pasta, and Macron and Draghi will call pleading for a meeting with me.
Or they’ll turn to America for help, but the Americans will say they can’t act without consensus – but nothing can get through their congress, and their people keep tearing each other apart over vaccinations, abortion, gun control, race, women’s rights, so how are they an example to anyone?
And all the while, I’ll be smiling, as I arrive in Kyiv at the head of my triumphant army, secure control of the country, appoint one of my devout followers to write a new pro Russian constitution, then take a well deserved vacation in Sochi, do some skiing, and plan my next move.
Life is beautiful. Yes, it is.’
He stands, crosses to the window, looks out.
‘What is the secret of my astounding success? Simple. My willingness to act. To repress dissent if necessary. To squash opponents if called for. Alexei Navalny will never rise to power while I’m alive. I’ll invent charges for him to die in prison.
And those I’ve sent into exile will die in exile.
But I do have to invigorate Russia’s economy. I must do that. My fellow Russians expect that from me. Trump said “America first. Well, I say Russians first”.
And to do that I will look to the Chinese system. It is much better than democracy.
Look at how fast they’ve risen. I’m envious of them. I recognize that.
But I don’t trust the Chinese, either.
They mesmerized America with the promise of riches. How can you explain that America has fallen behind in their production of microchips? In artificial intelligence?
The Chinese cast their spell and America relaxed. “Don’t worry, America, we have what you need,” they said, but the tags read “Made in China.” “We are making you money, isn’t that what you’re about?” And America nodded a little more, its belly growing in size, its robust quarterly reports in hand as it dozed off.
China smiled.
Then it struck. The South China Sea is ours. The Belt and Road initiative is on. We’re going after Taiwan. We’re conquering outer space on our own, never mind the International Space Agency, which you denied us entry to. And there we are.
Trump may have put America to sleep – in terms of their place in the world – but the trend was already there. Hubris. It will kill you.
Now it’s Russia’s turn. My turn.
And so this is only the beginning. For I will keep annexing territory. Little by little. The Baltic countries look like a good possibility. Little Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia. Who will go to war for them? No one. They are too small.
Then I expand. Poland would be a good one to catch. A fat little fish.
And again, who will go to war for Poland?
Not Germany. Not America.
In America they’ll say, ‘Wait, we’ve too many problems here at home, with our schools, immigration, racism, inequality, we need more time.’
‘Once upon a time they had fight in them. Now it’s gone. But they will still kneel before China to get their money.’
Putin laughs. Then the pensive and serious mood returns, eyes narrowed.
‘Ukraine is mine. Not just the East, but the whole country. It’s mine.’
Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net. apple and google podcasts and buzzsprout
He is alone in his private residence. He is standing by the window, looking out onto a beautiful forest covered with snow.
He has Ukraine surrounded by troops in the East, South East and in the north in Belarus. He knows the Ukrainians won’t be able to stop him, once he gives the order to invade.
He has enjoyed enormously being in the headlines, day after day, everyone talking about him. How will the world ever forget him? They cannot. He is now part of history. Forever. Immortal.
He rubs his chest lightly as he smiles.
He looks back at his desk, and the phone on it. He needs only to reach over, pick it up and order that his troops march into Ukraine. Just that, no more than that, and thousands of lives will cease to exist. Unless, of course, they all fall to their knees and beg for mercy.
What a life he has lived. So privileged.
Thinking to himself, he says, there is something so special about having so much power over people. So much power over the hapless Europeans who start shaking the moment he talks about holding back his supply of gas to them.
And he smiles when he thinks of his power to deceive, to persuade, to pressure. What talent!
‘Yes, I want to rebuild the Soviet Union. I want to have Russia be the number one power in the world. And I have the guns, the supersonic missiles that can get to Washington in 5 minutes. I have them.’
‘Sure they will retaliate, but I’m convinced my weapons are better. My resolve greater. My willingness to destroy unmatched.’
‘I have been able to bully others all my life. No one, no one at all, has bullied me back.’
And now he thinks of how he has no trouble sleeping. None at all. He puts his head on the pillow and wakes up refreshed 8 hours later. What a gift.
‘How can a man have so much power?’ he says to himself.
His eyes brighten. ‘I convinced others to give theirs to me, that’s why,’ and he laughs.
‘I convinced them that I would be their shepherd.’ He laughs again.
‘I do worry that I’ve caused lasting damage to my fellow Russians… that my being in power so long has led to an atrophy of their will to be. I do worry. But I won’t live forever, so they’ll have other people govern them. Meanwhile, I will rule this land as I wish and die in power, like Stalin did. President for life. What a charmed life. People will write and write things about me, like some hapless blogger is surely doing just this moment, trying to imagine what goes through my unique mind. But they won’t come even close. There has never been anyone in the world like me. No one. And I will continue to sharpen my cyberwarriors to undermine my enemies. One after the other. They will get so good at it that I will decide elections in other countries.’
He turns around and takes a few steps to sit at his desk. His phone is within arm’s length.
‘I can pick up that phone right now, order the invasion, and all the world’s attention will be on me, on my next moves. Europe will tremble with fear. America will squirm, Xi Jinping worry about what I’ll do next.’
He crosses his legs and brings his hands together interlacing his fingers.
‘I can see the headlines all over the world… “Russia Invades the Ukraine. Troops within reach of Kyiv.” “The Russian leader speaks of Lebensraum. More living space for Russians.” “Germany and Europe Panic”
He laughs.
‘Oh, I’m a genius. Yes. And right now, other world leaders are simply envious of me. But they can’t stop me. They don’t know how. Worse, they won’t dare.’
He rubs his face.
‘I enjoy seeing the world scared of what I can do. What pleasure that gives me.’
‘Ha! And Russians will celebrate me. And I will destroy completely all those who’ve dared oppose me here in my land. I’ll simply get rid of them.’
‘This will be the century of Vladimir Putin. I am now 69 and will govern for another 31 years, and all the while the world will be in awe of my powers.’
‘And next will be Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland. And no one will stop me, no one has the guts to stop me.’
‘I can live with fear… yes… and know how to stare it down… but so few people can.’
He pauses, holding his hands locked in front of him.
‘It’s up to me… and only to me… I alone choose the fate of thousands of people… hundreds of thousands… millions…’
He reaches over to the phone but hesitates… and hangs his head for a moment.
Then, raising it slowly… eyes narrowed as he looks off… the expression determined… fearless,
he says, softly,
‘Do I invade today or tomorrow?’
Oscarvaldes.net. also available on apple and google podcasts and buzzsprout
In a WSJ article entitled ‘Russia suggests Military Deployment to Venezuela, Cuba if tensions with US remain high’ and dated 1/13/22, a Russian deputy foreign minister said that since talks with America and its European allies over the Ukrainian situation have stalled, Russia could dispatch ‘military infrastructure to Venezuela and Cuba’ so as to pressure Washington to comply with Russia’s requests.
How interesting.
Putin invents a threat to Russia, sends troops to harass the Ukraine and because the US and Europe have not fallen to their knees, now he wants to instruct Venezuela and Cuba to help him out.
I am sure Putin didn’t consult with Diaz Canel and Maduro, the respective dictators in Cuba and Venezuela. What for? They owe me.
Putin wants NATO to restrict military deployments in territories bordering Russia and now protected by the US – European alliance. The alliance, however, has been put together to deter aggression from Russia. Instead, it has been Putin’s initiative to amass troops on Ukraine’s eastern border. It was Putin who annexed Crimea in 2014.
Putin must be having trouble at home that he’s been busy targeting dissident organizations in his country, labelling them terrorists, persecuting and imprisoning activists, instead of increasing freedom and allowing fair elections.
So he invents that the threat to Russia comes from the outside. Plus he gets his name in the papers and the internet and his dreams of eternal glory are revived.
Russia has a problem, yes, and it’s Putin. Like Cuba has a problem and Venezuela has a problem and it’s their leaders and those who choose to support them.
What Putin didn’t expect, was that America and its European allies would come together as one to present a united front.
What Putin didn’t expect, was that the West would not give in to his threats.
The Western alliance has held together because the threat to Ukraine is a threat to all of them.
And yes, the combined military capacity of the alliance is greater than Russia’s.
And the Biden administration has stated that no decision would be made without Ukraine being at the table. So, good for Biden and his excellent team, and good for our European allies. There are differences between us but there is clarity when it comes to identifying an external aggressor.
Venezuela and Cuba could do their part too by trying to show a little courage. They could ask Putin, ‘how come we don’t have to be asked to support you? You just assume we’ll do whatever you want?’
This is a great time for Russians to protest peacefully, to stand up to their dictator and tell him, ‘you are toxic to our nation. You are willing to sacrifice our soldiers for your dreams of grandeur. It is time that you go.’
Are you taking notes Xi Jinping? Pay attention. The West can unite. You will not divide us.
Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net. also in anchor.fm, apple and google podcasts and buzzsprout.
We are being pressured and challenged by Russia on one side, by China on the other.
They are both betting that we can’t pull together.
They are both convinced we’re in decline, that we have forgotten to compromise, that animosities will keep us apart and we won’t be able to build bridges.
We have scientists. We have builders. We have artists. We have technology. We have drive. We have natural resources. We have good people.
And yet, we have fallen on hard times because we have stopped talking. And when that happens then the hope for compromise fades.
The majority of the nation agrees that democracy is worth defending and affirming.
And at the heart of democracy lies the need to give and take. So, yes, the pace of change is slower when we compromise but the prize is freedom. Justice. Equality of opportunity.
Extremes are toxic. We have to avoid them.
The next time you come across someone with a different viewpoint, do not shirk from expressing your own. Fear not their anger. Express your view.
And if you find the opposing view absurd or outlandish remind yourself that most issues are complex, and that varying circumstances have shaped our views, and that it is absolutely essential that, regardless of how irritated we may be with the opposing view, we must retain our calm and composure and so avoid that our anger leads us to judging the person.
Let us keep our minds open.
China and Russia both have powers that can harm us. They are both dictatorships that severely restrict freedom of speech. If a person living there challenges the system they end up in jail or eliminated.
Their leaders fear freedom of speech for it can spread to others and endanger their hold on power. Xi Jinping has been president since 2013 and has arranged to change the rules so he can stay in command. He even arranged for their legislative body to designate him ‘Historical Figure,’ like Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping before him.
And so with Putin, who’s been in control of Russia since 1999 and has intimidated his nation to extend his term til 2036.
There are reasons why we have term limits for President in America. It prevents corruption. It allows for other views to emerge and be considered.
Today, Russia is threatening to invade the Ukraine. Is Ukraine a threat to Russia? No. But Putin fears that if Ukraine veers toward freedom, then other countries under his thumb will also try to better themselves.
China has squashed democracy in Hong Kong. They can’t stand the fact that Taiwan, after much struggle, has become a free nation. So they aim to invade it and bring it under their control.
We, in America, have freedom. Talking to each other, making the effort, is essential to keeping it. Anyone who refuses to reach out to others is toxic to our system.
Freedom is based on dialogue, compromise and bridge building. And all of us, every one of us, needs to do their part to preserve it.
Oscar Valdes oscarvaldes.net. also on anchor.fm, apple, google podcasts and buzzsprout
The Chairman and supreme leader of China is sitting in his office by himself. It is early evening and he’s just had supper.
‘Deng was right. We had to wait. Had to bide our time. And we did. Our strength was our market power. Our numbers. And then the party came in and imposed their will. We promised our citizens a better world and we are delivering. We have invented a new system of government and it has been a success.
And the world is envious. America is envious. Europe is envious. Russia is envious. Envious of our discipline, of our creativity and commitment to being at the top. Envious of our ability to resolve disputes.
Some will say that we have sacrificed freedom, but that is a small price to pay for our rise to the top. And my fellow citizens have been willing to trust the party. It is their hour of greatness and they know there’s more to come.
He stands and goes to the window. A grand view of Beijing lies before him.
‘Yes, the West has helped us, but through our shrewdness we are on the way to dominate the world. It is only a matter of time. With our market power we enticed tech enterprises and all manner of businesses to come to us and share their knowhow. And our genius has taken all of it and made it our own. That is our triumph. No one has done what we have done on this scale.
To do so we needed discipline and the party imposed it. Without the rule of the Communist Party this grand leap forward would not have been possible.
Here in our land there is no free for all, no chaos and disruption like there is in America and the West.
Discipline. Vision. Commitment.
If the Uyghurs think they can have it their own way, we discipline them. We do whatever we must to make them Chinese. They have no alternative.
I learn every day from the chaos in America. It confirms how right we are. Children shooting other children at school. And it happens again and again. What is that? Do they not learn from it?
Is that freedom? No, it is not. It is a perversion of freedom.
And they still can’t pass laws to ban firearms.
We have no such problem in China.
And then there’s the coronavirus pandemic. Why isn’t everyone in America vaccinated by now? Why is anyone allowed to refuse when getting vaccinated is in the best interest of the nation? But still they refuse and more and more Americans die.
Is that freedom? No, it is not. It is a perversion of freedom.
Nearly 800,000 Americans have died, so far. And now they will have to contend with the Omicron variant. And yet, some people will still not vaccinate.
We have no such problem in China. We haven’t vaccinated everyone but if we say vaccinate, then you vaccinate.
They have too many gods in America. A god that says having guns is right, another that says no guns is right, a god that says having an abortion is right, another that says not having an abortion is right, a god that says democrats are right, another that says republicans are right.
Meanwhile they’re killing each other.
Here in China there is only one god. The Communist Party. Me.
You obey, and you’re free to make money, within limits. Don’t obey and we step in.
That has been our genius. The recognition that the human spirit is naturally unruly and fractious. Therefore, to get anything meaningful done, we must enforce discipline.
He turns to pull up a chair and sits in front of the window, looking out, enjoying the view.
‘There is despair in America… and I like it. With our rise to becoming a superpower, they see us threatening their dominance, and yet their businesses still are coming here because of the size of our market, even if the result will be to strengthen a foe of their nation.
Someone once said that capitalists will sell you the rope with which they will be hanged.
Lenin, probably.
Take electric vehicles, for instance. We got Tesla to come over and share their knowledge. They were very willing and understood the bargain which was, we make you rich but you hand over your expertise. Of course, we then take the expertise, subsidize new Chinese companies, and spread all over the world to rival Tesla. When the time comes, I will ask Tesla to leave our market. It is up to us. Up to me, to choose the date and time for their departure. One of the great benefits of our system. We don’t have to deal with any lawyers from Tesla saying that it’s unfair to do so.
And the word gets around.
The other day, an American banker, whom we have allowed to do business here because we can learn from them while making them rich – same bargain as Tesla – joked that their bank would outlast our system. Someone from his bank reminded him of the disrespect and he quickly apologized. He knew better. You don’t bite the hand that feeds you.
So there’s despair in America. Despair because their incentives, profits at any cost, often runs counter to the national interest and yet their government is not free to check them. They have to contend with the US Chamber of commerce, public opinion, political donors and an army of lawyers and lobbyists. Freedom to dissent, they call it.
We have no such obstacles in China. What the party says, goes. And since I run the party, what I say, goes.
He runs his hands past the sides of his head and laces his fingers on the back of his neck.
‘It’s not like they’re not seeing the problem, it’s that they’re not doing much about it.
Biden sees it, though. But they’ve been so critical of him that with all the noise, his views are devalued.
Take Afghanistan, for instance. He was right to pull out but the criticism he got was brutal. His critics went on and on about how messy the pull-out had been. But how can you have a clean pull-out from a nation in such confusion? Stay and sacrifice more American lives? No. Pull out. Just pull out.
All of his critics in Afghanistan forgot to take account of the state of things in their own nation. Racism, inequality, poor education for the lower classes, shootings, killings, people not getting vaccinated and an assault on the Capitol by Trump supporters. All of that going on and still you want a tidy pull-out?
Biden is right, too, to take my global ambitions seriously. He’s trying to rebuild infrastructure, protect vital industries, strengthen defense and renew America’s relationship with Europe, but business interests there, too, will fight him and work against his plans, for they also want to come to China to make money.
I don’t think he’ll get reelected… which is better for us.
He now stands and starts to walk around his office.
‘The more chaos in America, the better for me. The more divided the better. And the reality is, I don’t really have to help that process. Americans by themselves will make sure they stay divided. It seems they just can’t help it.
It is sad to see a nation like that slowly lose their power. We all owe much to them. If it weren’t for them in World War II, we would all be speaking German. And Japanese. But they can’t help themselves.
Surely tomorrow I’ll wake up to the news of yet another school shooting. And the NRA saying, don’t take away our freedom!
What a disaster.
He stops for a moment, then resumes walking.
‘Which brings me to Putin and his intentions in Ukraine. Will he invade to annex the nation? Good question. If he does, it will make for a tense moment in the world. But Putin likes to be in the spotlight, with everyone guessing what he’ll do next. He may see his threat to invade as a way to stir up nationalism and counter internal resistance – the Navalny led movement. An invasion carries risks, of course. The Ukrainians will fight back and it will get bloody. And it could spark an insurrection in neighboring Belarus which will complicate matters.
If there are many Russian casualties, that won’t play well at home, and may fuel the internal resistance he seeks to defuse.
Hmm.
On the other hand, the global preoccupation with the pandemic offers a unique opportunity. And yet Putin wants the World Health Organization to approve his Sputnik vaccine. I think they will.
Yes… he could still make the move. A quick grab. Pow! Overnight. Like in Crimea. A blitzkrieg. Right in your face, like the Americans like to say… and Europeans will wake up thinking of themselves as smaller and weaker, with Russia sharing a border with Poland and Hungary and Romania.
He has the power.
I could learn a thing or two from Vladimir.
As for us… I could… maybe… synchronize efforts… he moves on Ukraine… I move on Taiwan… yes… it’s a thought… but…
He stops, rubs his face.
‘… No… it doesn’t feel right for me. Not now. It would take more preparation. Lots more. Bide your time, said Deng. Bide your time. I need to consolidate my power… so, no… Taiwan must wait. Anyway… America is likely to get weaker, not stronger, as time goes by.
What I’m certain of is that one day we will seize Taiwan. Like it or not. And America will just watch… divided as ever… wondering why they didn’t learn to talk to each other… and then return to burying their heads in Tik Tok. Or whatever game we can make interesting for them.
He smiles to himself.
Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net. Available as a podcast in anchor.fm, apple, google and buzzsprout.
They greet outside a heavily guarded country home in an undisclosed location, each man flanked by his trusted interpreter.
The two men shake hands amicably. Clearly, they have been at the same site before.
Xi – Good to see you.
Putin – Have been looking forward to this, as always.
They turn and step into a short hallway at which end a large double door opens to reveal an ample room with padded chairs facing each other and smaller seats adjacent for the interpreters.
The men stride in and take their seats.
Two attendants are standing by an elegantly draped table covered with delicacies and an assortment of drinks.
Xi and Putin nod at the table attendants and that is their cue to exit the room, so no one else except the interpreters remains with them.
Putin – How is the family?
Xi – Very well, and yours?
Putin – Very well also. Thank you.
Xi – They send greetings.
Putin – And so does my family.
Xi – Thank you.
Putin – Congratulations on landing the rover in Mars.
Xi – Thank you. We are very proud of that accomplishment. It took a lot of planning and commitment.
Putin – The world got to see that nothing will stop you.
Xi – Exactly. And we are just getting started.
Putin – How is the Belt and Road initiative coming along?
Xi – Fabulously. We’re very pleased.
Putin – What does the Belt stand for?
Xi – What we’re putting around their necks to tighten if we have to.
Putin laughs.
Xi – We are generous, but we need to get something back for our investment.
Putin – Of course.
Xi – How was your meeting with Biden?
Putin – Productive. He listens. I think I can work with him.
Xi – I liked the way you spoke at the press conference following the meeting… denied any Russian involvement in cyberattacks on America, blaming them instead for attacking the rest of us.
Putin – Keeping it simple. I like the way you’re managing the Uyghur problem.
Xi – Eventually, everyone will realize we won’t change our minds. If the world wants cheap cotton and tomatoes and polysilicon for solar panels, Uyghur labor will help provide it.
Putin – Are you really trying to make them more Chinese… the Uyghurs?
Xi – Of course. But they’re hard headed. So we teach them the right way.
Putin – I’m impressed by how the rest of China doesn’t seem to mind.
Xi – There’s not much they can do about it, and it’s all about helping China get stronger. Chinese people get that.
Putin – Trump didn’t seem to mind. He wasn’t critical of the way you’ve handled the matter.
Xi – He understands. Have you heard from him?
Putin – Have not. He’s probably a little depressed… not having all that attention he so enjoyed.
Xi – Reminds me of what life would be like if I ever agreed to step down. I can better understand why Mao wanted to stay on until the end.
Putin – I feel the same way.
Xi – And so we will govern until our last breath.
Putin – Yes.
Xi – Tell me about Alexei Navalny. I heard Biden wanted you to ensure his safety.
Putin – Yes. I went and visited him in prison, even before my meeting with Biden. I had never met Navalny.
Xi – What was that like?
Putin – He has these romantic ideas about what Russians want. How Russians are desperate for freedom of expression. Makes you wonder if they ever talk to other Russians and not just to themselves.
Xi – Will he survive prison? Biden seemed worried about that.
Putin – I will do everything possible.
Xi – Of course. You think they’ll award him the Nobel Prize for peace, Navalny?
Putin – It’s a political move, but prize or no prize, he’ll stay right there in prison.
Xi – Does it worry you that he’s started something that could, possibly, force you out?
Putin – I’ve been in power since 1999 and Russians have come to appreciate the peace at home and the respect we now have from the rest of the world. They know it’s happened because of me.
Xi – I came to power in 2013 and I can also say that my people feel great pride in being respected all over the world. That had never happened before. The one thing that many keep criticizing us about is the lack of freedom. But it’s a misconception. A thinking error. We cannot have freedom without discipline. Discipline to make sure everyone is making their contribution to the great plan for the nation.
Putin – I agree. Americans keep talking about it as if you could have it without restrictions. We have freedom in Russia. You can start a business. You can go to university. You can travel. You can even organize politically but within certain limits.
Xi – The limits being that you remain in power.
They both laugh.
Xi – Same in China. Americans talk a lot about freedom but nowhere in the world do people shoot each other like they do. I find it incredible that people in Texas worship having the right to carry a gun, as if that were real freedom. If there were real freedom in that land, people wouldn’t be so paranoid.
Putin – Too much inequality breeds paranoia.
Xi – Their real freedom is their right to vote and elect who you want.
Xi has surprised himself with the last statement.
Xi – (an embarrassed look at Putin) I did say that, didn’t I?
Putin – (smiles) Yes, you did.
Xi – Well… eventually the Chinese will get to vote in free elections. But that is not the phase of development we’re in. It will take years… 30-40 years perhaps. For now we have to instill discipline in the people. And it takes time. How do you see America’s situation now?
Putin – They are in a period of confusion. The assault on the Capitol is a sign of it. There are deep fractures in the political matrix of the country that suggest opportunities that we could take advantage of… if we work together.
Xi – Interesting. Go on.
Putin – There are parts of the population in America that would prefer a system like ours. The other day, one of their generals, retired now, a Trump supporter, was quoted as saying ‘Why couldn’t we have a coup in America, like there was in Myanmar?’
Xi – Unheard of before Trump.
Putin – I’m sure the general wasn’t talking of a coup to empower proletarians…
Xi – Of course not.
Putin – … but to further empower plutocrats, the super wealthy… the ones who run the big businesses and get away with paying no taxes.
Xi – I won’t let that happen in China.
Putin – I liked the way you set limits on Jack Ma.
Xi – Right. No matter how much money you have, no matter how big your company is, you do not criticize the governing party. But you can do it in America. But please do continue giving me your opinion of America.
Putin – Biden wants to unite the country… but he can’t do it on his own. I don’t think so. He needs allies in the Republican party. The problem is that no one is stepping forward. Most of them are still thinking Trump is their best choice.
Xi – You don’t think so?
Putin – Trump is not centered enough as a person. He had his moment. But there are Republicans who could step forward and say, ‘We have to work with Biden, the country needs it.’ Until that happens, America will drift, working at cross purposes, wasting time and energy… and… giving us the opportunity to take advantage of their confusion.
Xi – What were you thinking of?
Putin – I have seen how effective you have been in suppressing the dissent in Hong Kong. I am confident you could do the same in Taiwan.
Putin and Xi look at each other as they pause.
Xi – I have thought about it. Americans are very vulnerable in the semiconductor industry, now so concentrated in Taiwan.
Putin – And it will take them years to catch up. So… it may be a great opportunity to act.
Xi – We have discussed it… the pros and cons.
Putin – I could help.
Xi – How so?
Putin – America will not go to war with me if I choose to invade and annex the Ukraine. What do they care?
Xi – Hmm… but such an action would distract them enough for us to… at the same time… invade and annex Taiwan.
Putin – Exactly… and by controlling the semiconductor market, you’ll have the world on its knees.
Xi – Indeed. Hmm. We have discussed it, the pros and cons.
Putin – My bet is… that America will not go to war with you over Taiwan, either. They’ll swallow their pride and kick themselves for not thinking ahead when they had time to do it.
Xi – Good point. America will feel demoralized, weakened.
Putin – And it will give me an opportunity to extend my influence over Eastern Europe.
Xi -What were you thinking of?
Putin – Poland, Hungary… Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia… maybe Finland. The European Union is weak, more so now since Brexit. And there’s no hiding that some prefer autocracies.
Xi – I see. We have discussed it, the pros and cons. We will be moving into Afghanistan, of course, once the Taliban take over after the Americans leave.
Putin – Good luck with that. We didn’t do well there.
Xi – Ah, but you didn’t have the Belt and Road initiative like we do.
Putin – (laughs) Tighten that belt around their necks if they don’t cooperate.
Xi – Exactly.
Putin – However… there’s always the risk… that Americans will pull together and decide to fight.
Xi – You think Biden will rally them for a fight?
Putin – There is that possibility…
Xi – If so… Americans may end up more united than ever.
Putin – They are creative… and can be very determined…
Xi – When they have a bold leader. You think Biden is that man?
Putin – Good question… I wonder… but he could be… he just could be.
Xi – We would be risking a lot if we chose to act as we have spoken…
Putin – True.
Xi – … and the rest of the world may not be forgiving.
Putin – But it is very tempting, isn’t it… since America is so divided.
Xi – Yes. But we cannot forget that our economy keeps growing… no one is growing like we are… we keep reaching more and more markets… and we may discover, as I suspect, that we can outcompete America… and not have to fire a single shot… and maybe that’s the real war we’re now fighting.
Putin – Very good point.
Xi –We Chinese are very disciplined. That’s our advantage.
Putin – (looking a bit worried) It’s a different challenge… I get that.
Xi – Do you think Russians can outcompete Americans?
Putin – Good question.
The two men pause for a moment.
Xi – What would you have to do?
Putin – I am not sure. But I worry that I will have to grant more freedom to increase competitiveness.
Xi – Which would threaten your position.
Putin – Yes.
Xi – You’re not alone… I worry about it, also.
Xi clasps his hands as he pauses for a moment.
Sometimes… I think it is inevitable.
Putin – What?
Xi – That sooner or later, Chinese will want more freedom… even demand it.
Putin – Repression works up to a point… but we can make it last.
Xi – Taking the long view… I do think that you and I… are only transitional leaders… leaders without the conviction that men are at their best when they can govern themselves.
Putin smiles to himself, pensively. And he thinks of Alexei Navalny.
Xi – Shall we eat something?
Putin – Yes.
The two men rise and walk to the table filled with delicacies.
Oscar Valdes 