Oscar Valdes

Open Letter to Mr Smollett

2/23/19

From the evidence disclosed to the public, it appears that you staged the attack on your person.

As it stands, the case against you seems daunting.

You were not counting on your accomplices to turn against you but they did.

It was a brazen plan, taking advantage of public sentiment to further your own aims.

All of it was utterly absurd and yet,

You may not be completely trapped,

For there could be a way out, if you come to your senses.

The world may still forgive you, if you own up to the truth.

No one got physically hurt and the greater damage is to you, to your possibilities and credibility.

It is sad to see a person self destroy, publicly.

But just what would coming to your senses entail?

Accepting your guilt.

Stepping out from the lies you’ve invented and still vaunt and own up to the grand deceit.

Doing so will bring you freedom.

Maybe not from the courts and maybe not from a possible prison term,

But if you bare your soul to all of us,

And acknowledge the personal flaws that made you turn to trickery to satisfy your hunger for greater stardom,

You will then be asking the public for mercy,

You will be getting on your knees to ask for sympathy and forgiveness.

You will be asking for understanding,

That no matter the riches bestowed upon you,

In talent and money,

They could not be enough to help you think of yourself as a full human being,

A human being, sir,

Who could accept his limitations as he tried to overcome them by dint of hard and honest work.

Dear Mr Smollett, unless you have something to prove your case,

Then all of this was a grand charade, in which you tried to fool us all,

But ended with you being the fool.

So be bold while there may still be time,

Be bold and embrace the truth,

Step forward and own up to your folly

And limit the damage you’re inflicting upon yourself.

Good luck.

Humanitarian Aid to Venezuela

2/21/19

Humanitarian Aid to Venezuela

By Oscar Valdes

The crumbling socialist regime in Venezuela is kept alive by the military’s allegiance. And, on Nicolas Maduro’s orders, they are to block any shipment of humanitarian aid for the country’s population, no matter how desperate their need.

For the Venezuelan government, accepting the aid is seen as accepting failure, and in spite of the profound need for it, their pride is greater.

Meanwhile, Venezuelans are continuing to flee to neighboring countries, at great cost to themselves and the receiving countries.

The situation on the ground is complex, but it seems critical that the push to get the humanitarian aid into the country not lead to a military clash with the Venezuelan armed forces. If that were to occur it would shift the focus of the struggle from internal to external and delay the continuing internal degradation that will eventually lead to revolt, driven or aided by a faction of dissident military.

It is tragic that the Venezuelan leadership does not acknowledge their failure and the pain inflicted on the population, but the crisis is also a reminder, that the inefficiency and corruption of previous administrations created the conditions for such regime to rise and govern.

Eventually, the Maduro government will fall, and though external pressures by other nations will be a factor in the process, the greater force to overthrow the Maduro regime must come from within. No matter how great the pain, Venezuelans will endure, and they will live to write their history.

Which Way Will the Military’s Guns Point? The Juan Guaido Effect.

2/6/19

By Oscar Valdes. Oscarvaldes.net

As head of the Venezuelan National Assembly, on 1/23/19, Juan Guaido made the bold move of stepping into the void and assuming the presidency of the country, a void created when Nicolas Maduro, the previous president, fearing defeat at the polls, chose to grab power instead by pressuring the Supreme Court justices into authorizing a sham election.

But Venezuela and the world would not be fooled.

Three million Venezuelans have left the country, an exodus that represents 10% of the population, an emigration forced by the lack of work, food and medicine.

Abhorred by these events, the great majority of Latin American nations, along with Canada, the United States and leading countries in the European community, have raised their cry of protest and the US has imposed economic sanctions.

What continues to prop up the regime is the guns of the military, a military that has been given a strong hand in running industry, to their enrichment, and which has contributed to wrecking the country’s vital oil production.

Juan Guaido has stepped up while Nicolas Maduro refuses to exit. Which way will the guns of the military point?

It is a day of reckoning for that institution, a moment to look at itself and decide how do they want to make history.

The Venezuelan military institution has a noble past, having played a critical role in supporting democracy before allowing itself to be corrupted.

Will they now not see what is clearly before them, a regime that has fallen because of its own actions?

Will they now not see that the Cuban system, which Nicolas Maduro and Hugo Chavez before him sought to emulate, stands as grand failure of statehood?

Will they now not be moved by the pain and misery that most of their compatriots are now enduring?
Sometimes, for a myriad reasons, institutions lose their way, but there’s always a time to find the way back.

Now is such a time.

Now is the time, for the Venezuelan military to recapture its noble past by taking a stand to help their country find its own way.

Now is the time, for the Venezuelan military to redeem itself, by declaring its independence from Cuba, from Russia, from China, and by supporting the actions of men and women who want nothing for themselves but the freedom and wellbeing of their countrymen.

So rise, noble warriors, rise!

This is your time.

Seize the moment and point the guns towards those who oppose Venezuela’s march to freedom.

Trump in a Panic

Let us not join him. Under pressure from his base he feels he must deliver or else. The democrats are coming! Take cover! Build the wall now! Never mind if it means shutting down the government.

Have we ever seen a president so beholden to what a group of people thinks or wants?

The man can’t govern. The base governs him.

The pundits on the right dictate to him. He is the apprentice. Never mind the briefings he gets, he must turn on Fox News to guide him through complexity. All that matters is that he be in the limelight. That’s the guiding principle.

But we’re better than Trump. The nation is better than him. So we need to breathe and the crisis will pass. We will get through.

We must remain steady as the man breaks down in front of our eyes, unable to stand up to his base and govern for all Americans.

The Trade War. Envy and Competition.

A centerpiece in the increasingly toxic trade war is the fact that China pushed for forced technology transfers from American and other foreign companies seeking to do business in their country.

Did this practice begin recently? No. It’s been going on for years and years.

So why, then, did it take so long for the US government to bring it up and demand that it be stopped?

Profits.

American and foreign investors agreed to Chinese demands because profits made it worthwhile. In the meantime, the Chinese learned from the technology, improved on it and now have risen to become our rivals.

If that has made us upset then it’s time we got over it.

The Chinese did what they did and we let them do it.

One American administration after another talked about stopping the forced technology transfers but ended up doing nothing.

Why?

Profits.

Maybe we thought the Chinese could never get it together or that we would keep coming up with even better technologies and ideas and forever hold an edge over them.

The growth of China forces us to take a good look at ourselves.

Are we being outcompeted?

Have they copied us too well?

If so, then let’s pull up our sleeves and get to work, not just start a trade war.

We’re envious of China. Envious of their drive and their success and we’re not dealing with it appropriately. Instead, we’re choosing to bellyache and let our president be the bellyacher in chief.

The Chinese have succeeded, no question about it, but they are also paying a heavy price for it. They are a regimented society.

We are not and should take comfort in that.

But not too much.

And I say that because there are now forces here in America that would not mind sacrificing basic freedoms so as to increase growth and ape the Chinese.

Look at the steady rise of mega companies and their continuing effort to dominate markets, making it hard to let in new companies so they can vie for a piece of the pie.

Look at the rise of autocrats, who have got into office because we put them there.

What are we thinking?

Companies that moved into China and agreed to the technology transfers demanded by their hosts did so because they were advocates of growth at any price. Never mind what or whom they left behind. Cheaper labor won the day. And they’re still there. Feeding at the trough. Still doing business. Still making money. So what’s the flap about?

If American companies handed over trade secrets and are now outcompeted and not able to come up with better ideas, then get out. Face it. You lost. No bellyaching, please.

The Chinese are coming into their own and are in contention for the title of world’s leading superpower. They’re not there yet but they’re pushing. That’s a reality. We have no choice but to compete.

This trade war we’re in is unnecessary and a dangerous distraction. It is yet another bid for world attention by our self-aggrandizing president. But it is not just any other bid. It carries with it the high risk of driving us into a world recession.

Growth at any price won’t do. The voices that cry for more competition and for greater opportunity here at home must be heard. And so must the voices that say that we have to stop abusing others, and so too the voices that call for curbing carbon emissions. We need the balance because it brings us dignity.

Safeguarding our freedoms is as important as economic growth. In that sense we’re ahead of the Chinese. So let us value what we have. It’s not all about GDP as we have come to know it but just as importantly, about that other kind of GDP, the Growth Dignity Product. We’re still a long way from getting it right but we’re getting there.

We should not let a narrow minded president think that starting a trade war with China and the world is the way for the nation to pull itself up.

Try investing in Americans. Try raising expectations. Try demanding that we rise to the task.

Human Folly – Episode 1 (Khashoggi, The Prince and Trump)

The world had been shocked by his assassination. The victim, a distinguished journalist who had been an adviser to the Saudi royal family, had decided to take a different direction in his life. If he had been a soft critic of the royal family’s injustices against the citizenry, now he would become a harsh one.

The gradual transition from insider to outsider had been driven by the journalist’s conviction that he had an obligation, as a man and as an intellectual, to stand up for himself and for his fellow countrymen who did not have the gifts and resources he had.

The journalist had weighed the pros and cons carefully. He knew there would be risks, but never did he imagine that the end would be so brutal.

A team of Saudi Arabian hitmen had been lying in wait at theSaudi consulate in Istanbul when the journalist entered. He wanted to get married a second time and needed some paperwork done. He didn’t have a chance. Audio tapes provided by Turkish intelligence revealed that a chain saw had been used to cut him into pieces before disposing of the body.

The world reacted.

There was nearly universal condemnation of the action as calls for justice rang loud.

American intelligence agencies reviewed the facts, listened to the audio tapes the Turkish government had provided and concluded that the assassination could not have happened without the reigning Saudi prince knowing about it.

But our president demurred. He said there was no clear proof. And anyway, our nation needed the oil and money the Saudis had.

Many were critical of the president while others supported him, saying that the world was a rough place and that, in the interest of realpolitik, we all have to swallow some hard facts. In other words, if you have the power, then you get away with it.

The journalist, in his idealism, had thought that standing for principle would give a special meaning to his life. As a man of conscience, he knew he could not turn a blind eye to the suffering of his fellow Saudi Arabians. He had worked as a foreign correspondent and travelled widely. He knew his country stood as an anachronism, out of synch with the rest of the emerging nations. And it pained him.

Saudi Arabia had the good fortune of being one of the leading oil producers, but the wealth was mainly kept by the royal family. Still that was not enough. The Saudi royals also enforced a rigid code that dictated what women could and could not do. And if you objected you were put in jail and kept there.

While in the rest of the world women rose to become heads of state, leading scientists and politicians, prominent artists, intellectuals and creators, in Saudi Arabia the royal family had a code to enforce. Keep the women down.

All of us that pumped gas, paid for the oil that kept the royal family in power while they oppressed more than half of their population.

A distinguished journalist and man of conscience had been savagely killed and our president, a businessman and father of an independent business woman, didn’t have any pangs of conscience with his decision to ignore the atrocity. If he did, he kept it to himself.

Saudi Arabia is an ally after all, his reasoning went. In addition to the oil, they are a player in the Middle East to help check Iran and they also buy their weapons from us. How can we lose?

Realpolitik they call it.

By now the journalist’s fate is gradually fading from the headlines. Soon he will be forgotten. Fellow journalists who are sympathetic to his cause will remember him but the public at large will forget.

Our president will meet with the prince and salute him and support him, and we’ll see it on TV, both men smiling.

But did it have to be that way?

Our president could have raised his voice and endorsed the findings of his intelligence services. He could have said, “a prominent journalist who chose to stand for more freedom in his country was murdered by the leadership.” He could have added that America would not stop investigating the crime. But our man did not do that.

Here was an opportunity for a world leader to influence the course of the history of a nation and instead he settled for oil and a contract to buy weapons. Never mind that we have become the top oil producer in the world.

There’s something wrong with that stance, isn’t there?

Yes. Something deeply wrong.

The president’s supporters should pay careful attention.

The man may call his decision an instance of realpolitik and that he is doing it for you. I call it an instance of being amoral and predict it will come back to hurt us.

But it’s not the first time, is it?

No. In fact, it’s happening here at home too, in full view, and we’re looking the other way.

Why?

Is Trump Guilty of Colluding with Russia?

The Mueller probe may yet find evidence of illegalities but, as far as Trump ever entering into an explicit agreement with Russia to help him get elected, I don’t think he ever did that.

Mind you, I’m no Trump fan, but I did believe that, once elected, and in spite of all the absurdities he had stated during the campaign, he deserved a chance.

Well, he’s had his chance and has proved me wrong.

Trump may not have entered into a deal with Russia to subvert the election, but on other weighty matters he is clearly guilty.

Who would have thought that we would be witnessing an American president choosing to ignore the task of bringing the nation together?

Who would’ve thought that we would be seeing a president willing to grossly manipulate anti-immigrant sentiment?

A man carelessly tampering with trade policies, which carries the grave risk of putting a damper on the world’s economic growth.

A president who routinely violates rules of the most elemental decorum.

A man who devalues women and has yet to apologize for it.

A president who chooses to pull out of the Paris Climate agreement, in flagrant denial of solid scientific evidence.

A man who ignores the considered reports of his own intelligence agencies and shows himself reluctant to stand up to Putin and the Saudi family.

A president whose careless remarks on foreign policy have undermined the alliances America has worked so hard to shape since World War II.

Trump is guilty of all of the above.

Previous presidents have made serious mistakes during their term but then have shown a measure of contrition.

Trump is oblivious to such notion.

For two years we have seen him in action. Two years during which he has carried on about building a wall on the border with Mexico, an expenditure that is a shameless waste of resources needed for far more pressing matters, such as investing in the education of our citizens.

Two years in office, a parade of tweets and insults and never an apology from the man.

Two years in office and no attempt to bridge our differences. Instead, a sustained effort to accentuate them.

What does that tell me about Mr Trump?

That he is a shallow and self serving man with no true convictions other than what is good for him and his brand. And though intelligent, he chooses to use his capacity to indulge his greed for power and in so doing to mislead us.

What drives the man?

The relentless pursuit for self-aggrandizement.

But the nation can be deceived only for so long.

The results of the mid term elections, a referendum on Trump, stand as a sign that we are collectively coming to our senses, and so the tide is starting to turn.

Americans will make mistakes at the ballot box. Even grievous ones. We have done it before. That we are a democracy does not prevent us from having poor judgment. But what Trump’s 2016 election shows is how costly such mistakes can be.

The Mueller probe may well turn up information to impeach Trump but unless there is incontrovertible evidence for his guilt, the pursuit of that path is littered with uncertainties that may backfire and squander precious energies.

Where I see real hope is in the new Democratic majority in the House. It will be up to them to check Trump’s reckless behavior and do so in a manner that speaks not with partisan zeal but with a goal to unite the nation and recapture our strength.

Let us keep up the pressure.

A National Referendum on Immigration. America Needs One Now.

The NY Times, in an article dated 11/22/18 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/22/world/europe/hillary-clinton-migration-populism-europe.html

reports on a recent interview The Guardian did on Hillary Clinton. She spoke of Europe needing to get a handle on immigration because that is what lit the flame. Responses from the left were critical, while one leader from a far right Italian party stated, “Maybe Hillary has understood the lesson.”

The European Union has had a rough time dealing with the large number of refugees from Syria, the Middle East and Africa. Merkel in Germany was a strong advocate for welcoming them at first but eventually opposing parties forced her to compromise. In time, pacts were made with Turkey, Libya, Sudan and Niger to stem the flow and as a result the number has dropped by about 90% as the article states.

Hillary’s statements were addressed to Europeans but arrived at a time when the worst of the storm appears to have passed for them. For us, however, with dark clouds above us, her words are timely.

Trump would not have won the presidency if he had not seized on immigration – ‘lit the flame’- and run with it. He demonized and mocked immigrants at will, rousing enough voters to gain a narrow and bitterly contested victory.

To many of us it was clear from the outset that Trump was scapegoating immigrants. We also thought that the tactic would be clear to most Americans. Sadly, it was not.

Whomever composed what came to be known as his base, was willing to ignore the obvious flaws candidate Trump showed. That the economy was recovering nicely under Democratic leadership and promised greater gains did not, in the end, make a difference. That Obama was enforcing immigration rules and deporting people living here illegally, did not either.

The base was angry and wanted something right away.

Globalization was browning America.

And there was Obama on our screens every day as a reminder of it.

The base, mostly white, said no.

That Trump is a clever manipulator there is no doubt. He knew that globalization had taken away jobs and that governments – both Republican and Democratic – had failed to institute the needed measures to remedy the damage and that therein lay the problem. But harping on that was not incendiary enough to fuel his campaign. Painting a black and white picture was. For a segment of Americans that had felt left behind and wanted quick answers, it was an approach made to order. “You’re good, they’re bad,” cried the great wizard from his mighty pulpit, “Yeah! We got this!” And emotions were roused. The hustler from New York was in a hurry to get elected. He was 70 years old and running out of time. He needed to act fast.

He’s still doing it.

So why is the democratic party still uncertain as to what to do about immigration?

Is it a problem or not?

How does it break down?

Who should come in and who shouldn’t?

Are immigrants needed?

What skills should they have?

The answers may be obvious to some but not to all. Why, then, not bring the issue directly to the people? Why not hold a National Referendum on Immigration where both sides present their views to the country and then we vote on it?

A National Referendum on Immigration would put the matter front and center and allow all of us to pause, assess the arguments in favor and against and make a choice.

Otherwise, the issue is likely to linger on unresolved and remain a force that the president uses to stir up sentiment and advance an agenda that is not in the interest of the nation.

It is clear that Trump does not speak for all Americans, nor does he seem intent on it. Criticisms of his conduct have been loud and harsh from the start, with his electoral win in 2016 tarnished given the evidence of Russian meddling and his having lost the popular vote.

Add to that the results of the recently concluded mid term elections. The House being a better representation of the country at large than the Senate, is there any doubt that the results were a referendum on Trump?

So now is the time to push forward boldly and bring clarity to the question of immigration.

If the majority of the nation were to vote that, yes, we need to restrict the flow, then that is what we should do. But we ought not to let Trump continue to use the issue to brazenly stir dangerous nationalistic sentiments that if not checked, will divide us further and lead us down the road to ruin.

Presented with the facts – through a rational discussion of the pros and cons of immigration – Americans will do what makes sense for the nation today and help clear the path for the country to come together.

Presented with the facts, we stand a chance to stop tearing each other apart and focus on pressing matters.

A National Referendum on Immigration will help us get there sooner.

Trump and Jamal Khashoggi. What the Affair Reveals.

Please see for yourself the entire statement released by the White House on 11/20.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-president-donald-j-trump-standing-saudi-arabia/?utm_source=link

Here’s the 5^th paragraph,

“Representatives of Saudi Arabia say that Jamal Khashoggi was an “enemy of the state” and a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, but my decision is in no way based on that – this is an unacceptable and horrible crime. King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman vigorously deny any knowledge of the planning or execution of the murder of Mr. Khashoggi. Our intelligence agencies continue to assess all information, but it could very well be that the Crown Prince had knowledge of this tragic event – maybe he did and maybe he didn’t!”

There’s no evidence that Jamal Kashoggi was an enemy of the Saudi state. He was a critic of it, a man who wanted to help steer the Saudi leadership away from the repressive practices that stifle voices of dissent, the very forces that killed him. He had been close to the leadership but had felt compelled to speak more openly, which is why he chose to move to our country while simultaneously holding residence in Turkey.

The CIA, after careful review of all the evidence produced by Turkey, where the murder took place, concluded that Mr Khashoggi could not have been assassinated without the knowledge of the crown prince. But Trump has no qualms rebuffing such verdict and instead accepting the king and crown prince’s denials. Did the crown prince have knowledge of the event? “Maybe he did and maybe he didn’t!” says Trump. Hard to believe.

But it sounds familiar, doesn’t it? Indeed, Trump said something eerily similar in Helsinki this last July – after a question from a reporter regarding Russia’s interference in the 2016 elections – immediately following his summit meeting with Putin.

“… my people came to me, Dan Coats (from National Intelligence) came to me and others, they said they think it’s Russia… I have President Putin… he said it’s not Russia. I will say this… I don’t see any reason why it would be… I have confidence in both parties… I have great confidence in my intelligence people… but I will tell you that President Putin was extremely strong and powerful in his denial today.”

Why should Trump not trust his intelligence agencies?

If Putin and the crown prince deny strongly their wrongdoing, is that supposed to negate the conclusions drawn by teams of seasoned experts in intelligence gathering?

Additionally, Mr Trump has openly stated that he will not listen to the tape produced by Turkey containing the gory sounds of the killing of Mr Khashoggi.

What does that mean?

When Trump chooses to not listen to the tapes of Khashoggi’s murder it is not just him not listening, it is all of us. It is America not listening.

What image do we project to the world when we behave as such?

Can Trump not find the strength to face the facts?

There’s something sordid and venal about Trump’s willingness to excuse the Saudi prince.

That Saudi Arabia has signed up to invest 450 billion in our country, a sizable portion going to the buying of weapons, is not a reason to hide from the truth.

This is not to say that geopolitical considerations should not be weighed in.

Saudi Arabia is a long term ally of ours and as such a counter to Iran’s aggressive influence in the region, but giving the Saudi elite a pass in this heinous act is not compatible with the Saudi people’s aspirations to become a modern state.

Why not, for instance, call for the prince to stand trial for the offense, in the presence of international observers?

Would that be a destabilizing event for Saudi Arabia? Maybe, but it would be an important step toward introducing political accountability in the country and preventing the crime from happening again.

It may well be resented and seen as interfering with their governance, but in the end, likely to invigorate the forces of reason and enlightened civility.

As a sovereign nation, it will be up to the Saudis to do as they wish, but taking a public stand for justice leaves us in a strong position while sending a message to all of our allies.

If we were dependent on Saudi oil, the geopolitical considerations would be quite different. But we are not. Thanks to the spirit of innovation that our nation retains, we have become the largest oil producer in the world. That matters. And so does our moral integrity, for it fuels courage, creativity and vision.

So far, Mr Trump has been unable or unwilling to grasp this essence.

This is not lost in the eyes of the world. Appearing to be beholden to a ruling elite is not only detrimental to our image abroad but also, and more importantly, to the image we have of ourselves.

Either way, America loses.

Calling for a National Referendum on Immigration

Is Immigration a problem for the nation? Yes or no?

Whatever the answer, let us not let Trump decide the matter.

Let the entire country do it instead.

Let the different sides present their case to all citizens

So that we – all of us – may decide what we should and should not do.

A national referendum on immigration would help us do just that.

The issue is important and complex enough to warrant our full consideration.

Do we allow immigration or not?

Could we do without it?

Do immigrants contribute to the country?

Do they take more than they contribute?

Who would be admitted and who would not?

Every color or some colors?

From every country or from some countries?

Of what age?

Of what religion?

Must they have skills or not?

Which skills?

Answering those questions would allow us to begin to address the matter rationally as it deserves to be.

We are a nation of immigrants but at some points in our history we have chosen to restrict the influx.

That is our privilege.

So let us give it the proper attention instead of letting emotion drive our choices.

Politicians manipulate emotions to get our vote.

We are a sovereign nation and as such need to give the proper thought to matters of great consequence.

Immigration is such a matter.